Tag Archives: #FineTuning

A-Gamers

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Hey, …

…nowadays, …

…we only play our A-game.

There’s no time for formalities.

It’s late in the day.

All weapons are out.

This is the need of the hour.

So, what are the salient features of our A-game?

A well-forged, multiply-faceted, time-tested road map – our system of systems – our one Strategy. This one’s 360 degrees. It incorporates both trading and investing, and leads to very long holds in cost-free form. Includes more than twenty highly competitive, sharpened, edge-providing Modules, about which I wrote a few articles back. As far as strategies go, we are cruising in a Maybach on the Autobahn. No worries there.

Patience. In the last twenty odd years, we have learnt how to sit. Makes biggest money, said we know who. Patience is ubiquitous, or is it? Many people have developed it. Many are born with it. But then, many are not. And, markets demand their own kind of patience. Over the years, we have learnt and developed market-patience. We wait for our levels before acting. We sit on our Cost-Free-Ness, like, forever. We are not in a hurry. I ‘can behave’ as if this is my own module 🙂 (do allow me the indulgence), but patience is universal and out there for everyone to incorporate and exploit on their own.

Liquidity. This is a module. Am reiterating it here since it is key. Our initial small-entry-quantum strategy (remember, that’s how we started!) allowed us ample liquidity, always. Yes, we were always liquid in situations, when they came, while building up the backbone of our portfolios. Slowly, portfolio-size started to grow. Then came the incorporation of position-sizing, thanks to my learnings from Dr. Van K.Tharp. Subsequently, I instinctively added my own twist to this, making it Non-Linear Position Sizing (NLPS) that we follow. NLPS initially allows for small entry quanta. As portfolio-size increases, so does each entry quantum-size. However, the latter increases more than y = x, i.e. more than linear. This means that over the very long term, entry quanta become remarkably substantial in size. Nevertheless, we still maintain balance by perhaps Fine-Tuning entries and exits to the nth level, i.e. with huge win probabilities, which automatically / mathematically leads to lesser entries. Strategy thus goes on cruise-control. Furthermore, outstanding entry-prices, followed by Quick Generation of cost-free-ness make our very long-term holdings as Anti-Fragile (thanks for the term, Mr. Taleb) as possible.

Talking of cruise-control, our back-end allows for full Automation at button-clicks. All transactional trail-mail is auto-forwarded to every required avenue. It’s a one-time self-setup time-expense, so don’t be afraid of it, since the reward is disproportionately huge. Each avenue allows preview and further transfer / storage after button-clicks. Taxation? Button-clicks. Indexing? Button-clicks. Retrieval? Button-clicks. Viewing in any format? Button-Clicks (baby).

Time. We have all the time in the world. We do our own thing. Income is sorted. Wealth is being generated on auto, and is multiplying. Learn languages. Travel. Pro-bono. I teach kids. To manage their own finances. From a young age. Currently I’m teaching four kids. It’s a give-back, and they can pay it forward.

In a nutshell, that’s my A-game. I’ve taught it forward, so I can talk about a we. You’ve seen it develop in this space over the last 14+ years. I’ve nothing to hide. It’s for everyone to use and benefit from. The act of Giving gives me the most Satisfaction in life.

Winnings

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Not all…

…winnings…

…are tangible.

Intangible winnings…

…can be far greater…

…in stature.

One can carry these with…

…anywhere.

Don’t need to know more.

They’ve won their case already.

Let’s break this down, using a concrete example.

Let’s take this blog.

First, the losses.

Subscribers?

Hardly.

Financial loss?

A few pennies a day, equalling domain charges plus plus divided by 365.

Effort loss?

Yes, a lot of effort goes in. However, it is rewarded heavily, though indirectly. Since there are no more losses, let’s talk about winnings.

Sharpening of skill – maximum.

As words flow, ideas are elucidated, take greater shape, and are cemented into a system.

I’ve often spoken about the fact that this blog can also be seen as fundamental / critical / what have you research towards developing a 360 degree unified market field approach. I think I’m there.

Let’s look at the system that has evolved over the last fourteen years – specifically, let’s look at modules incorporated.

Small Entry Quantum.

Non-Linear Position-Sizing.

Cost-Free-Ness.

Long-Term-Hold.

Positional-Hold (culminating in trade booked with cost-free-ness generated).

2 Demat Approach.

GTT incorporation.

Buy Low.

Sell High.

Entry.

Sitting.

Letting Profits Run.

Exit.

Averaging Down.

(Stop-)Loss attenuated by Cost-Free-Ness’s capability to rise by…

…’Banking on Infinity’…

…in a Non-Linear Long-Term Growth-Market.

The Zone.

The Line.

Fitting.

Market Forces.

Market Presence.

List goes on.

Bottom line is that what has emerged is a decent-size double-digit list of modules incorporated into one clear-cut, multi-level and dynamic wealth-creating strategy…

…with results that make ‘losses’ due to lack of subscribers statistically too small to even mention.

I write to create a magnificent system, and to keep fine-tuning it.

My system creates wealth for my family.

I donate a small part of our wealth to charity.

Hence my writing facilitates pro-bono work.

Some of the few readers of this blog might one day choose to implement a few modules, or perhaps the whole approach. I’m happy for them. God bless them. Magic Bull is completely free, and is part of my give-back to society.

I create good causes with my writing.

While writing, I feel buoyant, sharp, and fulfilled, carrying this combination of feelings into the day, spilling them over into other good causes created over the whole day.

Am thankful for this avenue, since it gives my creativity an outlet.

🙂

Banana Trajectory

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Growth …

… is a non-linear entity.

Especially…

… high growth.

Amongst many things, …

… one point needs …

… pointing out.

Between periods of high growth…

… anything can happen.

The levels of what can happen are, amongst other correlations, directly proportionate to the number of similarities between an economy in question and the functioning of a proper banana republic.

Freedom of speech can be suppressed.

Parallel economies can thrive.

Extortion and blackmail can rule.

Genocide.

Landgrab.

Terrorism.

People buyouts.

Apathy.

Dysfunctionality.

And then there’s high growth again, perhaps soon, if the economy gets its act together despite its rulers, and perhaps accelerated, if the rulers come to their senses and return back to being peace, growth and democracy loving .

Without getting into what kind of a republic we live in, for lack of a better phrase, and with a very small use of one’s imagination, one could venture to suggest that our own path of growth could resemble that of a banana trajectory.

The banana in this title doesn’t have much to do with the curvature of the fruit.

Much rather, it’s about the economy to banana republic correlation.

Might I suggest that our economy’s banana behaviour is mostly mild. Then, rarely, it gets intense. Normal growth returns. Then comes high growth. Periods of very high growth are rare, but there too.

Overall I’m happy with my and in my republic.

Sometimes, its banana behaviour beats me up.

Yeah, every ten years or so, there’s a big hit.

No one likes getting hurt.

I do remember to stand up and continue fighting, …

… because it is in this very republic, that I can make my 15% p.a.c.

On the conservative side, that is. Perhaps I can make more.

I don’t get that in any other economy.

You see, occasional banana behaviour is good news for a long term contrarian.

Banananomics lead to blunders, and temporary downfalls, with all indices falling big.

Which is where we have the guts to buy, and big.

Why?

We know we are on a high growth trajectory with intermittent banana behaviour.

A very simple formula suggests itself.

Buy big during reactions to banana behaviour.

Take principle out after spurts of high growth.

Sit tight on underlying in profit, perhaps for life.

A high growth trajectory with intermittent banana behaviour will give you many such cycles in your lifetime.

One stands to make multiple times the ten-yearly hits.

Upon recognising this recurring pattern, one can even fine-tune and enhance loss-attenuation.

🙂

Cost-Free-Ness doesn’t come for Free

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Yes.

You read that right.

If you thought I was revealing some kind of holy grail secrets here, which you could copy-paste for yourself without having to do anything else, do please allow me to fine-tune your thinking.

First-up, true, cost-free-ness is a holy grail of sorts, I do feel.

However, it’s hot to handle.

As discussed previously, our greed comes in the way. We don’t unlearn our greed just by reading a blog-post.

Then, when I speak about cost-free-ness, I stand upon the shoulders of giants. I have always maintained that in all my writing. One struggles, and comes upon…

…gems.

Others have struggled and stumbled upon these gems before, similarly. Some have documented their experiences for us to learn from.

That’s the way of life. One builds upon the edifice that one’s peers have left standing.

As long as one gives freely of oneself, life moves on comfortable trajectories, and the Universe rushes to protect and encourage such giving.

Lastly, you’ll also have to struggle when you go about establishing cost-free-ness for yourself.

Make good causes, so that difficult Karma doesn’t spoil your party by forcing you to liquidate your cost-free-ness, in order for you to have to finance your way out of such Karma.

Then, complete market rewiring required by the brain takes about a decade and a half of putting one’s money on the line. That’s been my my experience. One needs to rewire one’s mentality to be able to create cost-free-ness in any market situation. Like I said, it’s going to cost you.

This freebie material here is just to get you started on your path.

Besides, I do owe a debt towards all the free material I myself use on the internet, so this is my giveback in lieu of that.

I wish for you happy, lucrative and cost-free investing!

🙂

Urges

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Market forces need to be understood…

…to win in the markets.

When do market forces start affecting us fully?

When we put our own money on the line.

That’s why…

…don’t…

…ever…

learn finance from someone who…

…doesn’t put his or her money regularly on the line.

When we put our money on the line, market forces start changing our psyche.

If we’re holding funds, we develop the urge to buy.

If we’re holding underlyings, we develop the urge to sell.

Early in our career, we give in to these urges at precisely the wrong time, resulting in loss-creation.

As we become more seasoned, we are able to resist such urges, till conditions provide profit.

As our market career continues, this is where fine-tuning matters the most.

How long are we able to resist the urge to sell as the market climbs?

How long are we able to resist the urge to buy as the market crashes?

These are pivotal questions.

One of them is playing out now.

As new highs are made, many have already sold out.

Some have sold partly.

Very few retailers are still holding on to whatever they might have left.

It’s institutions buying and selling.

New entry at these levels are a dizzy proposition.

I won’t hide that as markets climb higher, I experience a very strong urge to sell.

It’s…

…over-compelling.

How do I deal with it?

When such urge is too compelling, one does oblige.

One sells…

…little…

…and that’s the tough one.

One needs to oblige the urge lest some piston bursts, but simultaneously, one needs to hold on to as much as one can…

…since markets are on a roll.

One can’t learn this from a book, or in college.

After selling early many, many times, for more than a decade and a half, one finally learns to hold on to a chunk of one’s underlyings as markets go ballistic.

As heights get higher, this mechanism will make one sell, though, little by little…

…and that’s ok.

Let’s make sure that we do keep holding a chunk of the stuff we really like, though, after having taken the principal out.

Otherwise, how will we allow multibaggers to blossom?

Easier said than done, I know!

Chancing

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How does one discover the missing ingredient?

By chancing it. 

One keeps trying different mixes…

…till something hits. 

The hit is then fine-tuned…

…such that it is reproduced again and again.

Once the hit can be reproduced at will, one has got the strategy all together. 

A successful strategy is then let loose. 

At first it is on manual.

Ultimately, it comes on auto, or semi-auto, whatever best is possible. 

There has come and passed a stage, when this same strategy has not been winning. 

Aha. 

What is the difference between the mix of that stage and the current – winning – mix?

It’s some kind of a twist you’ve discovered. 

Something you are adding, or doing differently. 

This something is making the strategy win. 

Congratulations!

You’ve kept trying. 

You’ve been in the field. 

You weren’t away from the field, ruminating. 

You were getting action. 

Losing action, but action. 

Losing action has huge educational value. 

It tells you how not to do it. 

You keep twisting, fitting, tuning, upon loss. 

You chance new stuff.

Eventually, something clicks. 

You develop that something further and take it to the nth. 

Where does that leave you?

You have to keep chancing it. 

There is no way around this. 

Make funds available for the R&D. 

Have the courage. 

Don’t be afraid of a hundred losses. 

Winning is around the corner. 

Fancy schmanzy or just plain Vanilla?

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There’s expenditure and there’s expenditure.

Meaning?

Let’s say you start some work. It can be market-related, for all I care. What do you do first?

Prep.

How do you prep?

Studying up. As long as I can manage.

And then?

Courses, workshops, the deal.

Local?

Naehhh. I try to keep it national though.

International?

Haven’t required it till now for market work.

Ok. What happens next?

I hit the market concerned. Low-key at first. 

Why?

That’s when you make the most mistakes. That’s why. 

I see. Motive?

I want to learn from my mistakes and not repeat them.

Rather than from an instructor?

Of course. This is the market, remember. This is about you. Not about the instructor. This is about knowing your own shortcomings related to a particular market, and about adjusting and fine-tuning yourself to the market to trade it optimally. This is about fitting the market concerned in a tailor-made fashion into your own life without disrupting your own life. 

Wow! Well, then, congratulations. You’re a prime candidate for doing it the plain vanilla way. 

Is there any other way to do it?

Oh, there’s the fancy schmanzy one. 

Kindly describe it. 

Well, it mostly entails unnecessary expenditure along with necessary expenditure. There’s more unnecessary expenditure though. 

I see. 

One is normally too lazy to study up. Or, one doesn’t have the get-go in oneself to approach the subject on one’s own. 

Sure, can happen. 

One flips from instructor to instructor in search of the holy grail. Expensive software, international trips, five-star hotels, the whole shebang. In the end one has spent a bomb. To end up trading the instructor’s perspective. Finally realising that the markets are about oneself, and unless one is trading one’s own perspective, one is sure to lose. Or not realising this (!) and continuing to flip instructors and instructions. Finally burning out and giving up on the markets. 

Sad though. All necessary software is available free of cost on the internet. One can do inexpensive internet courses to widen one’s horizon. These can involve one-on-one instruction too. Video-conferencing. File sharing. Threads. Assessments. The works. Live-market training. You name it. All travelling and extra expenses cut out. Few hundred dollars for the whole course. 

I already acknowledged your plain vanilla acumen. I’m just trying to tell you that most others prefer the fancy schmanzy way. 

I prefer to stay in the market and not burn out. I’m in the market to make a steady income. 

Well, that you will, my dear friend. The plain vanilla way doesn’t promise any hype, but it does promise income. 

What is an Antifragile approach to Equity?

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Taleb’s term “antifragile” is here to stay.

If my understanding is correct, an asset class that shows more upside than downside upon the onset of shock in this age of shocks – is termed as antifragile.

So what’s going to happen to us Equity people?

Is Equity a fragile asset class?

Let’s turn above question upon its head.

What about our approach?

Yes, our approach can make Equity antifragile for us.

We don’t need to pack our bags and switch to another asset class.

We just approach Equity in an antifragile fashion. Period.

Well, aren’t we already? Margin of safety and all that.

Sure. We’ll just refine what we’ve already got, add a bit of stuff, and come out with the antifragile strategy.

So, quality.

Management.

Applicability to the times.

Scalability.

Value.

Fundamentals.

Blah blah blah.

You’ve done all your research.

You’ve found a plum stock.

You’re getting margin of safety.

Lovely.

What’s missing?

Entry.

Right.

You don’t enter with a bang.

You enter at various times, again and again, in small quanta.

What are these times?

You enter in the aftermath of shocks.

There will be many shocks.

This is the age of shocks.

You enter when the stock is at its antifragile-most. For that time period. It is showing maximal upside. Minimal downside. Fundamentals are plum. Shock’s beaten it down. You enter, slightly. Put yourself in a position to enter many, many times, over many years, upon shock after shock. This automatically means that entry quantum is small. This also means you’re doing an SIP where the S stands for your own system (with the I being for investment and the P for plan).

Now let’s fine-fine-tune.

Don’t put more than 0.5% of your networth into any one stock, ever. Adjust this figure for yourself. Then adjust entry quantum for yourself.

Don’t enter into more than 20-30 stocks. Again, adjust to comfort level.

Remain doable.

If you’re full up, and something comes along which you need to enter at all costs, discard a stock you’re liking the least.

Have your focus-diversified portfolio (FDP) going on the side, apart from Equity.

Congratulations, you just made Equity antifragile for yourself.

🙂