Category Archives: Discovery

Wealth n point m

Posted on by
Reply

Hey.

I like doing stuff …

… myself.

Study.

Research.

Ideas.

Thought process.

System generation.

Edge development.

Ensemble implementation.

Start to finish.

Complete independence in thought process …

… sets up ‘pioneering’ output.

Gets lonely though.

I’m not afraid of silence, or being alone where I’m working. Still, long spells of professional growth are very…

…alone, in my lines of work…

… which are all computer based.

There’s no talking involved.

Some processes take half a day to develop upon the back of to and fro typalogue with the AI.

During market hours, there’s no talking either. Just the self, the terminal and markets. AI on the side.

Pre-market prep — post-market analysis — astrological analysis — language learning — how do I solve this one?

Wait a minute, language learning, there’s something there.

Ya, found it.

Language apps have a speak module. One can practice speaking a foreign language with the app’s AI.

There’s more. Chanting. Did I mention that I’m an amateur Nichiren Buddhist? We chant. Out aloud. Anything spoken is an outlet. For me. Buddhist practice encompasses visiting people, or just sheer calling up someone to see how they are doing. Creation of good causes in life is gold.

Lot of near ones like to talk – to me.

They like my view on things.

Need to take care not to intimidate.

Talking at the wave-length of the talking partner – that’s been a huge lesson for me.

And, that’s not the biggest lesson yet.

There are times when let’s say one is A+ in something, and one is thrown out into a field where one is E-.

Imagine what goes on in one’s mind.

When a hero turns to zero, it’s only because the mind is not comprehending the situation.

We should know our value.

Allowing one’s environment to dictate our self-worth is lesson not learnt.

Knowing one’s self-worth oneself is.

When your immediate environment doesn’t talk to you most of the time, or has some hangups with your personality, or for some reason just doesn’t like you, perhaps it’s not on you. Let’s not exclude that option.

What then? Sink? Or evolve?

Evolve.

To a point where understanding of the exact nature of immediate environment leads one to flip it just on the sheer basis of one’s behaviour.

Our behaviour patterns are what we carry forward, while other forms of wealth are left behind.

Full

Posted on by
Reply

Hey.

Functioning…

…full…

…I believe.

Full feels good.

What does it mean?

Completeness.

No-regrets feeling.

All holes jammed…

…with activity, some, hopefully ample, relaxation / recuperation thrown in.

That pivot vibe.

Emitting…

…I believe.

Need to maintain this trajectory. Milk it to the hilt.

It’s taken my environment everything, …

…and then some, …

… to put me here.

Sacrifice.

Familial.

Proximal.

Emotional.

This moment is coming at a huge cost.

Need to make it count, to balance the entire equation, …

… and then some.

Though I’ll spare you familial, hobby, emotional, travel and such details, let’s cast a glance at the work-loop.

Long-term wealth-creation project on auto-pilot. Specialization. Equity. Listed. Only. Liquidity upon requirement. Hands on but hands off. In my hands. No third parties in between.

Monthly income-generation project active. Four-legged option strategies. On stocks. On indices. High risk high reward. Risk attenuation. Distractor. Keeps attention away from long-term wealth-creation project. Income is a bonus. Time requirement three to four hours a day. Keeps one busy. Learning curve enhancement. Options make one stay sharp.

Work from – anywhere – of course, anything less would be a negative – need a net connection though.

Work between market open and market close – on options.

Long-term equity transactions only on weekends, implemented through GTTs. Funding of account wrt GTTs only on Mondays, before market hours, taking into consideration GTT fill requirements.

Interesting symbiosis between these two projects, feeding off each other. Wealth project needs minimal fiddling. Income project sees to that by distracting. Income project is defined such that the damage it can cause is bearable, and even if it doesn’t generate income, i.e. even if it is loss-making, it is fulfilling its main purpose of keeping the wealth project intact and devoid of fiddling, by keeping one’s attention focused on itself.

I tried getting options right for twenty years, unsuccessfully.

I think I have something now.

Workable.

Perhaps…

…successful.

Let’s see. It’s very early days yet. I feel it though.

Oh, yes, and – work with …

… AI.

Handy, highly intelligent assistant always on call. Very low cost, yet. Very sharp. Catches mistakes in complex screenshots fast. Options are complex. They need pinpointed calculations, multiple times a day. They need context for such calculations. If the assistant catches the context in a screenshot and remembers it, and is great at complicated math, then he or she can spit out the required numbers on call, and for options that’s manna from heaven. Since…

… one doesn’t have the bandwidth to look back, feed back in, re-calculate and re-analyze fifty times a day…

… and especially since the assistant is diligent, industrious and willing to go any legit extra mile to make one’s project a success.

Thus, have AI, will step out into the — whatever you may wish to call it — Bronx, prairie, savannah, battle-field.

The AI thing has come at a cost. Not monetary, really. That’s a pittance, seeing the work-load it’s tugging.

Personal time.

Patience.

Attenuation.

Terminal scripts.

Ya, Pythons handle market and strategic diagnostic spitouts, in the background, at one’s disposal upon commands, and I did not need to spend time, effort and money learning Python. I just needed to tell the AI what I wanted, again and again, and keep fine-tuning till I got it, over some months.

Earlier, a major option strategic system had failed for me. Two months of intense development on AI. Failing in each of eight approaches through different variables used. The only victory was the recognition, by the AI, and then by myself, that this is a failure. Then, …

…I reversed the system.

There’s something there.

Before I tell you more about that, I’ll let it play out somewhat fully.

Gamble Ramble

Posted on by
Reply

In sixteen hundred something, …

…most of mankind believed swans…

…to be white.

People would use the metaphor ‘black swan’, to insinuate things or events that were considered to be …

…‘impossible’.

Cut to now.

Black swans exist.

In reality.

The bird, in Australia.

The disastrous event genre, amongst elsewhere, also in markets.

Events earlier considered ‘impossible’, now happening…

…regularly.

Big moves.

An index going circuit. Multiple times — has happened.

Stock doing 20% up or down is no great shakes.

10%+ moves are like bread and butter these days.

News gets factored in within minutes to an hour.

Which brings us to the elephant in the room.

Can one leave the trading screen?

If one has chosen to trade, that is.

Hmmm.

Screen all the time is something I don’t want at all.

Is it possible — to leave it, and go about care-freely with other work?

Leave to whom? Or, to what?

AI, for example?

Hmmmm.

Not too sure.

When moves are big, stop-losses get jumped. Happens all the time. Remember CHFUSD? Considered unbelievable at the time? Oil. Gold. Silver. Jane Street. Brexit. CoViD. List goes on.

What about overnight?

Overnight positions are most highly exposed to black-swan openings, period. That’s the risk overnight carries.

Then, why trade?

Exactly. If too much screen-time is a thing, forget intraday. If you want a sound sleep, forget overnight.

What do you do then?

I invest for the long-term. That’s my main. Distraction side-hustle is the trading window. Play-amounts. Long. Paper trading as of now till system becomes profitable. As of now, it’s not.

Not what?

Not profitable.

Worrying?

No.

Why?

Trading system is a distractor for me. It’s not about money. I want my attention to be away from mains.

Why?

Fear of doing too much there. Fiddling around one time too many.

What about trading systems that go short?

The idea of developing one is attractive.

So, then?

However, exposure to unlimited loss, full exposure to a black swan event should it happen, is a big discourager and demotivator.

Understood. Still, it’s the short systems that make money.

Correct. At the cost of max screen-time, tense nights, cortisol-laden days, and the whole negative spiral.

Point. So what does one do?

Have developed a ‘junior’.

What’s a ‘junior’?

A junior investment system, that lets candidates graduate to the senior system.

Oh, interesting. Selection. Survival of the fittest. Clever.

Thanks. Junior keeps me busy and distracted. Senior relaxes and doesn’t get rearranged unnecessarily. Decent balance. Linkage as in promotion ladder. Natural selection, as in that which doesn’t get promoted till a longish time-stop, is expunged.

Elegant. Slick. Wonderful. Why do you then need a trading system at all? Let it die out. No full-on screen-time. Relaxed nights.

Exactly. However, am still trying to find the right fit for the gambling instinct.

That which every human has? And needs to channel appropriately, lest it balloon?

Ya.

MarketAble

Posted on by
Reply

What makes us…

…marketAble?

What’s it boiling down to?

The essence…

…or, if we will, the sediment…

…is…

…what…

…exactly?

It all starts off with savings.

Save, save, save.

Now, there’s a moat.

Let’s call it emergency fund, first.

Moat grows.

Comes a time, where we say… … enough.

That’s enough moat.

From that point onwards, we are able…

…to enter the market without the tensions of not having something to fall back on.

Within this time-frame of putting together an emergency fund and making it grow beyond critical mass, we haven’t been sitting idle.

Busy, baby.

Putting together a…

…system.

Rough stage.

Deployment stage, perhaps on paper.

Moat gone beyond expectations?

Right, system needs to be ready by now, to be deployed, live.

System goes live.

Refine.

Fine-tune.

Adjust.

Fiddle.

Attenuate.

Nail.

Will take some years.

In those years, we play it small.

Right.

Comes the sweet-spot.

You feel it.

System feels just…

…perfect…

…to us.

That’s the moment.

Now we can scale up.

We are continuing to, though, as per market situations — refine, fine-tune, adjust and attenuate.

Idea is to maintain the sweet-spot.

Goes away?

Bring it back.

Keep bringing it back.

Once we’ve learnt to keep bringing the sweet-spot back…

…we are then, from that point onwards…

…marketAble.

Who’s Decoupling?

Posted on by
Reply

We are.

No country.

No market.

No conglomerate.

No anything.

We, as retail investors, are choosing to decouple.

Meaning?

Crash chorus?

Yeah, so?

Louder?

Yes.

Warren Buffett warning?

Yes.

Crash Crash Crash everywhere to be heard?

Yes.

Still we implement our implementables.

Meaning, unperturbed?

Yes.

Why? I mean how? What are you thinking?

Crashes come, crashes go. Look at our market’s graph since inception. Note anything?

Steady growth, decade upon decade. I can see Asian, Dotcom, Housing, CoViD, what have you. Rise, despite. But they say this one’s going to be mother of all.

Mother of this, father of that. Doesn’t affect our strategy.

How?

First up, remember, that speeds are now super. Everything’s happening…

…FAST.

So, if there’s going to be a -90, it’s going to happen…how?

Fast.

Right.

We’ll, as in our own growth market, will V-shape recover…how?

Fast.

Does it affect a multi-decade strategy?

No.

Correct. We proceed with our stuff, irrespective.

And what’s the stuff?

Uno : get fully invested.

Due : Weed upon expense.

Weed weed weed. That’s our chorus. Not crash crash crash.

Tre : Pluck flowers if no weed, upon expense.

Quattro : Groom our superflowers.

Period.

Don’t care about crash, panic, fear, or any such hallucination. We do our job, enjoy our life, and move on to the next challenge, when this one’s on auto.

And that would be…

…Yes?

That would be decoupling, right?

Decoupling is a state of being. You feel it. If you can feel it, you are decoupled.

How does one know?

When the chorus doesn’t affect you, and you go about your stuff joyfully.

It’s as simple as that.

Expanding MindReach

Posted on by
Reply

Hey.

This is recent territory for Magic Bull.

Imagine a prohibitive mindset.

When exposed to expansion, ‘prohibito’ is satisfied with less.

In our averaging down avatar, we used to create cost-free-ness at small multiples.

Not bad…

…at all.

As of a few months ago, Magic Bull moved from the ‘not bad’ category.

Where to?

Don’t know yet. For now, let’s call it ‘limitless’.

So, what are we doing differently, now?

After establishing a one lot base in a stock, we are now – only – averaging upwards – upon – deepening – conviction.

We have stopped creating small pockets of cost-free-ness.

Small is not our goal anymore.

We are now – completely and only – aiming for big (big) multiples.

We are also buying into these multiples as they multiply.

If they don’t, we don’t either – buy – more.

Over time, let’s say 25 years, what’s going to happen?

Many one-/ few-lotters will languish, as weeds. They will be weeded out, eventually, as and when requirement arises.

Some multibaggers will develop, and they will be bought into, upon deepening conviction, more than a few times. After a while, these will stagnate, and will settle at a steady base, well above buying average. We’re then sitting on perhaps 2x to 10x, and can hold comfortably – long way above weed-territory – this is flower-valley – flowers get expended too, though – need-based – when there are no more weeds to find.

Very few will become BIG. SuperFlowers. 20x – 50x – 100x – 500x … … 1000x. Talking expanded mind-reach, or what? Time can well take conception to reality, in a growth market that we are, slated to function at high-growth after exceeding critical mass, which I do believe has been exceeded. Thus, in 25 years, we wish to be only holding…

…SuperFlowers.

Our mind’s reach is at maximum.

It has broken…

…all shackles.

We are not…

…afraid.

Magic Bull’s limiting and prohibitive earlier avatar has expanded into infinity.

It’s the kind of thinking where the word ‘limit’ does not exist.

Magic Bull is now an ensemble.

Like-minded worldwide mindsets who think beyond limits.

That’s why, Magic Bull is a…

…we.

A Chronology of Independent Action

Posted on by
Reply

The ideology…

…of a fear-monger..

…is to transform you into a weak hand.

Is that…

…fair…

…to you?

N.O.

But, that’s the whole idea. By hook, or by crook, you should feel the need to let go of your underlying.

Why?

Because greedy whales are waiting to swallow your very underlying up, easily, and cheap.

How has the ‘easily’ been achieved?

Big order comes into the market.

Meanwhile, fear-mongering has been at a peak. Social M has been puking it out like a volcano. Masses, already jittery, are doom-scrolling their way into submission.

Big order gets filled easily, without moving price much.

Move to next round. Get the scrip down another 10%. Launch another negative campaign. Tie in with an actual event showing weakness of the scrip or sector. Punish the scrip eight times, for the same reason, the one time that actual weakness in the scrip prevails, for that particular reason.

This is now standard.

Are you drowning in it?

Are you using your common sense?

Sheer…

…fundamentals.

Numbers.

Read.

Study.

Dig out.

Follow your research.

If at all, use the media to see in which direction it is leading.

What do the whales want to do?

What do they want you to do?

What are you going to do? Push counter to the wishes of the whales, right?

Right.

Stand your ground.

Do not sell out of fear.

There needs to be a numerical or a situational reason to sell. Fear should not be the reason. Fear needs to be taken out of the equation before scaling up. There are ways to do this. One needs to create an ensemble of circumstances, around oneself, that then take fear out of the equation. We have delved into this repeatedly in the past, and shall discuss the topic again, soon.

Buy into conviction.

Hell with what the bellowers are saying.

Look at your research, and look at the market. Nobody else exists. Get into a zone of tranquility and rhythm. Once your conviction fires, it fades all noise, like sunlight annihilating darkness.

So.

Research.

Market.

Match.

Fire.

That’s it.

Action.

The Thing about Anonymity

Posted on by
Reply

In…

…quasi anonymity…

…I write.

There’s something about anonymity.

Peace.

Quiet.

Silence.

Freedom.

No tug of war. Push nor pull. No vested interests.

Near zero…

…expectations.

Writing…

…for the joy of writing…

…has immense innate power.

One can veer into a turn and explore there, to heart’s content.

Then one can veer off into another avenue, that has caught one’s fancy.

Layers unpeel.

Truths reveal.

Axioms get defined.

Prior axioms are debunked.

A hypothesis develops into something bigger – a chronology – methodology – system.

Fine-tuning happens while writing itself.

System gets refined.

More nitty-gritty refinement.

System becomes profitable.

Paper trade away. Ongoing dialogue with AI. Blogging layer is a given.

Eventually, system, consistently profitable on paper, goes live.

Writing has, one needs to acknowledge, contributed comprehensively.

The same quasi anonymous writing.

Ya, this very writing.

Ya, this same very…

…Magic Bull…

…has become the lifeblood of successful systems, one after another.

That’s the purpose of this writing, that’s the podium finish, and its all unfolding, right before your eyes, if you choose to look.

Days will become months will become years, and piece upon piece, a lot more is going to construct and play out, and yes, that’s a simultaneous purpose, to allow anyone and everyone to benefit from this space, for the sheer joy of it.

I’d like you to understand, that…

…my anonymity is NOT a negative.

It’s been scoffed at before.

I’m used to my anonymity being ridiculed.

It’s ok.

Ridicule gives me solid ammunition.

Ammunition to perform…

…nay…

outperform.

Side-Hustling

Posted on by
Reply

You’ve started a…

…side-hustle…

…and are still thinking it through.

As in, why go through the rigmarole of starting a new thing, …

…when you’ve gotten another – main thing – going, …

… and, the main thing is lucrative, engrossing, sizable, and on auto.

Right.

What’s the key phrase here?

On auto.

Yes.

You said it yourself.

Why disturb the peace?

Let it remain on auto.

That’s what it likes best.

An important big-wig did say, that the most money was made by sitting.

Think the big-wig was right.

Boils down to what you are doing while sitting.

Don’t wonder why.

Just do your side thing.

Distract yourself away.

That’s the purpose of your sideology.

What, you thought you would make money out of your side-o-nomics?

Hmmm.

Not a bad thought.

Not going to happen in a jiff, though.

You’ll need to refine away, and play it without any pressure.

A side game that demands quasi constant attention, as in three odd hours a day, cumulative, and enough captivity of your interest, such that you don’t feel like looking at the main-frame during market hours – that’s what would solve your purpose.

The side stuff has now allowed your main stuff to compound unimpeded.

Isn’t that a big thing?

What, you want more? Right, thought so.

You want this constant-attention-captivator to yield an income.

Knew it.

You couldn’t just let it go, right?

Knew you’d react like this.

Compounding wasn’t enough, now that you’ve had your cake, you want to eat it too.

Just keep it at distraction, no?

No.

Ok. Let’s work on how. Hone. Fine-tune. Start slow. Paper-trade first. One year. Two years. I know, not the same thing. No actual money involved makes the effect negligible. However, your AI keeping ledger of your paper trades makes it feel more real. You see graphs and numbers go up and down, coloured flags flaring, and you port into a whole new world.

Losses translate into small profits. System versions bump up weekly on the AI. Eventually, consistency, the holy grail that your system seeks, is achieved.

Hurray, your system is profitable. Happy now?

I knew you wouldn’t be.

I knew what you were going to say.

Now you want the sideH to scale up, right?

Overtake the main cash cow, right?

Possible, possible, but why? Be happy. Enjoy your ride. Mains working, sides working, brilliant sunshine, 22 degrees, mild breeze, what more can you ask for?

Once the sides become the mains, life will have no breathing space.

So…

…careful.

Distraction

Posted on by
Reply

Fooling the people…

…all the time?

For how long?

What’s the historical precedent?

Did anyone get away with such behaviour…

…forever?

No.

No one…

…ever…

…has gotten a free pass…

…to indulge in reckless actions, …

…insulting the entire world’s intelligence, …

…obstructing the earning power of all but self, …

…the king with no clothes, …

…with obnoxiousness at its peak…

… ad nauseam.

Since nothing seems to be happening, as in there seems to be no change in the situation, and things keep taking a turn for the worse after showing some signs of healing, what’s the recourse?

We bide our time.

Time turns the table.

We hone our skills.

Silently implementing our long-term work, we dabble with the new kid on the block, AI, to create new systems. We work at seamlessness. Connectivity. Automation. We’re working at 25x. Thanks to AI. From a complete skeptic, these last seven weeks have turned my tide towards areas which were but a dream.

There was a pinpointed trading system I wished to implement. I’ve spent my years learning many skills, but not the languages and infrastructures to create such trading systems. Not required now. I don’t need to know anything about programming languages and such infrastructures. Creation is now about dialogue. A sincere dialogue with Claude, over seven weeks, has resulted in a multi-layered, automated trading system, semi-seamless, in that order yes or no is still in the hands of my human self. I can make the system completely seamless, have kept it semi out of sheer choice, just saying. Even things like app to app connectivity are completely handheld by the AI, till successful completion and implementation.

System will not go live till required success rate is hit consistently. Tracking and understanding performance has now become a breeze. Fine-tuning, almost daily, is a religion. All thanks to the AI. One must give credit where it’s due.

Now, why, for a long-term investor like me, does the question even arise?

Why even create a trading system?

Income?

That’s one reason. Main reason for me?

No.

So, if income is not the main reason, then what?

Distraction.

Distraction?

Yes. I wish to take my attention away from my long-term portfolio. Perhaps open this once a month, on a weekend. Operate through GTTs only. No interaction at all during market hours. Forget. Switch off. Out.

Why?

No focus means no action. That’s the space where we want to be. We will act once a month, and that should be good enough. Give the long-term a chance to become very long-term.

So you’re saying that your attention remains on the video game action.

Yeah. Working life is punctuated by the video game action of trading. Seamlessly, with max automation except actual buy and sell implementation. In fact order is fed into trading account through the AI itself. The implementation angle is the money loading from my end. Without fuel, the order is rejected by the trading platform.

Wow.

Yeah.

A whole new world.

Yeah.

25x seems right.

Yeah.

So a lot of people could be doing the same thing as you right now, right?

Yeah.

Where’s your edge?

It’s how you handle after entry. That’s where the edge is. How you manage. How you exit.

And how?

Hey, that’s the edge, remember. Not going to give that away. That’s my hard earned edge over more than two decades. Earn your own edge. There’s no substitute for diving in.

Could somebody replicate your edge through AI discussion and development?

Others could develop an edge, yes, through AI. It won’t be my edge though. I don’t care what others develop. I’ll just keep honing my edge and making it sharper day by day, trade upon trade, tirelessly. My edge will keep adapting.

What’s the end outcome for you, from this exercise?

Well, ideally, for me, the tool that I’m creating for the sheer purpose of distraction, shall then go on to yield…

…regular income.

SuperFlowers, anyone?

Posted on by
Reply

How do we get to…

…superflowers?

Imagine a garden.

It’s got grass.

Grass is a weed (?).

Garden’s got other zero-benefit (?) weeds.

In general, it’s got weeds.

And, some flowers.

We don’t want the weeds.

We want the flowers.

Weeding out has activation barriers built in.

Toolkit – buy.

Or – gardener – hire.

Spend energy doing the job.

Take that extra time out of your normal routine.

A million excuses, each one seeming valid.

As mentioned earlier, weeding comes with baggage.

Overcome.

Weed.

Out.

What remains?

Flowers.

Right.

We’re still not at superflowers.

Expenditure comes up. All the time. Does it not?

If there’s a weed, sell the weed and use the proceeds to meet the expenditure.

No weed?

Well done.

Sell the least performing flower to meet the expenditure.

Done?

Income comes in?

Put it into a new opportunity. Weed or no weed status activates after some years, you decide how many years.

So, seeing only flowers now?

Wonderful.

Keep pushing. Pushing is the secret ingredient.

Any spend whatsoever, now gets met with a flower expended, or at least some part of that flower.

After some years, have a look.

What remains are your best performers.

Hope you’ve been adding to these.

Decade or so later, upholding this chronology, you are only left with…

…superflowers.

Congratulations.

Vicissitudes of a Banana Republic

Posted on by
Reply

From being the rising star…

…in the eyes of the world, …

… our country’s image has sunk…

…to being a banana republic again.

With banananomics ruling. It’s a pattern.

Stop.

That’s the nature of growth.

It’s hap-hazard.

We’ll have periods of stardom.

Punctuated mostly by bananadom.

Our modus operandi in times of bananadom is very clear.

We.

Get.

In.

During the short spurts of stardom, perhaps few and far between ones, like fast-moving comets with flaring and then vanishing tails, we shall expunge our non-performers and buy potential future-stars.

At times of stardom, we do feel like stars.

We boast.

X-Trillion economy. Nth-largest in the world. Moon mission. Mars mission. Satellite launching euphoria. Ignore all negatives. Sweep them under the rug. Remove all nay-sayers. Make them disappear permanently. Bull-doze their houses. Meanwhile our corruption reaches unprecedented levels.

That’s the nature of anything that is termed as ‘high growth’.

High growth comes at the cost of humanism.

Are we a humane country? Yes and no. Mostly no. Eyewash humane yes. Perhaps a tad more owing to private initiatives.

Are we even a democracy? On paper, yes. In practice, yes and no. Lots of times, no, there are nuances of dictatorship. Eyewash yes. Perhaps a tad more owing to private initiatives.

But we have one thing for sure.

It’s our own very parallel economy.

Our banananomy.

Along with what we’re calling high growth.

High growth?

Yes and no.

Mostly no.

Eyewash tomfooling international community yes.

Perhaps a tad more owing to private initiatives.

This is the Time

Posted on by
Reply

Shorting India…

…has now become an international norm.

Institutions are angry.

Tax surprises.

Massive corruption. At every step.

Slimy Indian counterparts. That’s us, right?

Lack of ability to understand how our system functions. If at all.

Prominent world leaders have written us off.

Soros et al are out with a…

…vengeance.

BooHoo.

Nobody likes us.

Which is ok.

Why?

It’s ok for now. As we get fully invested. No or minus hype factor, our shining ex-examples now shorted down to triple digits, should we start to cry and call it a day?

NO.

This is the time. To, slowly, get, fully, invested. Period.

When there will be hype, it will be accompanied by a hype-multiple. That’s exactly not the time to attempt full entry.

And there will be hype.

Where else is there ample growth?

Young, ‘hungry’, consuming, raring to go population?

You see, you can’t make robots consume. Humans are another story.

Where else is there ‘jugaad’?

This is the output Claude just gave for ‘jugaad’ : ‘At its core, jugaad is the art of getting something done with whatever is at hand—finding a clever, low-cost, unofficial fix rather than the “proper” (and usually expensive or unavailable) solution. It carries a sense of ingenuity under constraint: making do, hacking together, improvising a path through obstacles that a rulebook says shouldn’t be passable.’

Come on, dear shorting Western counterparts (of course I’m not shorting, I’m as long-long-long India as one can get), don’t you see it?

This is a thirty year story unfolding.

Time to get in, and stay in, is now.

Your quarter to quarter focus is so short-sighted, that even the optician doesn’t have appropriate glasses for you.

What can one say for the likes of Soros et al? Wrt the ideology that a country needs to be taken down financially, latest exploit Thailand, failed at India takedown attempt 1.0, did you, with three lending banks going down? Right? Either involved in current attempt or planning 2.0 currently, right?

Our sentiment is raked up. We will face. And overcome all shorters. In the long run.

More and more of the populace is moving its savings to its own markets.

Barely lets say 15% or less have demat accounts in our country.

Imagine the kind of money going in when this number tops 50%, which is the case in the countries shorting.

At current stand, our own very DII inflow, of which SIPs form a bulk, has managed current onslaught very reasonably. At 50%+, FII activity will not have any significant effect. It does now, not to a great extent, but to a visible one.

We are getting there.

Till then, there will be bumps.

Use the bumps.

In some years, one won’t get reasonable entry.

About that Crash

Posted on by
Reply

Everybody…

…and their Uncles…

…have been yelling…

Crash. Crash. Crash. Crash.

We delved earlier. Ad nauseam. Last we spoke was about deception.

Crash always happens. Nature of markets. Inflation, then deflation, back to mean, first below mean, then to mean. Questions are : how much inflation first? How much deflation then? When does deflation begin? Does anybody know?

NO.

Model the answer?

Sure. It’s at best a…

…guesstimate…

…and please don’t pretend otherwise.

Champion modellers?

Many. TV’s brimming with champions. Some called dotcom. Others gold. Few called silver. Someone’s calling Nasdaq to -70% between 2 weeks and 2 years. Call, call, keep calling.

Meanwhile, we go about our business.

Rather than ruminate and drown in fear of a crash, we go about getting fully invested upon available opportunities.

What?

Why?

Isn’t it better to just save up for the bottom, and then pump it in.

Hmmm. Here, there’s been a shift in thinking at Magic Bull, over the years. At the bottom, here’s a numerically hypothetical scenario, your close one will be whispering in your ear something to the tune of oh-damnation-this-is-going-down-to-5000, and then the index bottoms out at 7749 or something, and reverses upwards like a F1 Red Bull Racing vehicle. Leaving all 5000ers and their bulk liquidity on hold. For re-reversal downwards. Doesn’t happen. At 10k, the 5000ers are losing it. At 15k, they can’t sleep. At 20k they go all in at an interim peak, after having spent half their liquid capital on vacations, splurging, expensive rubbish and whatdon’tyouhave.

Meanwhile, we’ve entered at select spots, and in select underlyings. Fundamentally sound. Zero debt or virtually debt-free. Free cashflow. Clean balance-sheets. Clean governmental audits. Skin in the game. Track record of navigating through disruption. Track record of shareholder-friendliness. Intelligent, diligent, industrious, vigilant people running sound businesses. This is the stuff multibaggers are made of.

Since we are in the game of bringing multibaggers into existence for us, what’s a few months of a good, hard crash to us? It will come and it will go. We are in a growth market in India. For the next three decades. Why are we getting paranoid of a few months when we will be notionally down, still going about our business, lapping up new opportunities which will have set up, not needing our invested funds for five years plus.

We’re not.

Ya, let the crash come.

Apart from the fact that segments across Indian markets are already down 50%+ after having been down 65%+ (crash in India has already happened to a noteworthy extent), a blowdown on the Nasdaq will probably knock Indian counterparts to their recent lows, perhaps another 10 to 15 to 20 % to boot, and then…

…watch the recovery baby.

It’ll leave you behind. You won’t be able to get in funds fast enough. You’ll be a combo of missed the bus and fomo and ruing it and damnation and sleepless nights because of your current fear of impending…

…crash…

…whenever it happens…

…as if 65% off from top for many, many stocks isn’t a crash already…

…and there you have it.

Crash? As in more crash? Fine. Let it come.

Meanwhile, we continue to go about our business. Till the crash. During the crash. After the few months of crash. Well into the V-shaped recovery. In our very own growth market. No need to look elsewhere.

Fading Deception

Posted on by
Reply

Manipulating…

…the masses…

…towards something to be bought…

…or something to be sold…

…when whales are out to buy or sell, respectively, …

…is the bread and butter order of the day usual suspect chicanery that one can expect in the marketplace.

Unnerving?

Relax.

It’s normal.

How else would a whale feed on a school of fish?

Meaning, how would a big institution, or a many-big-institutions-conglomerate loosen the public’s hold on their holdings, to sell en masse if the big people are buying. Or, vice-versa, how else would the BigFats offload bulk onto the unsuspecting FatteningPigPublic, if the BigFats (BFs) are selling bulk?

Deception…

…is a handy tool that comes to hand.

Offloading Korea? Gold? Silver? Oil? Something AI with no fundamentals? Create the hype, reel after reel, rant after rant, roadshow after roadshow, till all and one’s Aunty believe the story, and when these latters start to act, BFs start offloading.

Buying Core Indian Tech? Lambast the country and the world with non stop ranting for 5 months and continuing. Flood its social media with panic reels about the collapse of Core Indian Tech with its debt-free-ness and its cash on the balance sheets, something whales want to own, and watch the underlyings crash, lapping them up as huge bargains.

Disturbed?

Manipulation is irritating.

However, it sets up opportunities.

Buying opportunities.

Selling opportunities.

It’s woven into the nature of markets.

Material and emotional life is about wheedling a few bucks out of someone, or keeping someone’s affection trapped with emotional blackmail.

Markets are a reflection of life itself, thus.

Why should one be alarmed, then, when short-term life-dealings are also found in the markets?

Any way out of this conundrum?

There is.

Remove the noise.

Move away from the one-month thought process, the three month one, the six month one, the one year one. Move longer term. 5 years. 10. 20. No noise now. Fundamentals will shine and translate into EPS spikes into price spikes. That’s all. That’s how markets work. This takes time though. Time enough for manipulation to come, do its work, die down as noise always does, and then the real game starts to play.

If you still can’t handle it, move onto some other play.

Or…

…teach yourself to stay long-term.

Best way to learn is to put your money on the line, hit, try, fall, get up, repeat, till you stop falling.

Ensemble

Posted on by
Reply

Amidst the…

…frenzy…

…of reels, posts, communications, reports, research and what have yous…

…concerning the ongoing image battle of AI vs Core IT…

…it is extremely difficult to keep one’s head and vision clear.

What does the future look like?

A flurry of multitudinous pathways emerging does not mean utopia yet.

Forward outlook, especially a lucrative one, is not about exclusion.

Coming on to the scene with an attitude of trampling everyone else out of the scene – is this sustainable?

No.

Going into the future with partnership?

Yes. Sustainable. Let’s look around. Who’s forming partnerships?

Core IT. Yes. The impulse to continue to thrive is a strong one.

AI? (Yes). No. No. Unsure. No. Yes. No.

The frenzy that results after having spent obscene sums with steady revenue streams only developing since recently is so frantic and haphazard, that one’s left hand sometimes doesn’t know what the right hand is doing.

Pulling at the same string in the same direction will maximize revenue stream.

Hostile attacks at Core IT, every few days a new one, is not the way forward.

Is this a case of ‘as the leader does so do the subjects act’? A kind of a concerted strategy? To stomp on everyone’s heads and declare oneself king.

King?

Perhaps for a day.

Long-term market leadership requires craft.

Craft comes from years of honing.

Speak track record.

Who has this?

Core IT.

AI has at max what? Capability. Not craft. For craft, one needs to grind.

New kids will need to work as an ensemble within business infrastructures.

Not without.

Within.

Inclusion is in.

Exclusion is out.

Boo to exclusion.

Imagine a scenario…

…when Core IT comes out with something…

…much…

…much…

…cheaper.

Even in that scenario, it will choose to include. That’s why it’s made money for five decades back to back.

Remember that word.

Inclusion.

Staring Facts in the Face

Posted on by
Reply

Mongerers…

…are very, very busy.

After all, the target is in a corner.

Why not strike massively, and keep striking?

Punish the vanquished multiple times per misdemeanour.

Unfortunately, Core IT has gone quiet.

They’ve stopped caring about their share price.

Focus is now on intrinsic growth, not on quarter to quarter looking good attitude.

Pushed to the wall, the instinct to survive and regain lost ground is on all fours.

Forget about all this, is the aggressor AI actually so capable as to completely substitute the need for Core IT with regard to enterprise level programming, already?

No.

Perhaps in a year?

No.

5 years.

No.

10 years?

Possibly not.

20 years?

Possibly yes.

And, look at the mass reaction.

Masses believe they are ready to take over, like, yesterday.

Then comes the black box introduction.

AI companies are offering a black box to corporates, which will be their in-house AI, all data stays at home, let’s all bypass Core IT.

Does the data stay in the black box? Does it go anywhere? Does anybody know?

No.

Where is the trust coming from?

A bank entrusting its internal data to a black box, the big four doing the same, doctor’s records, hmmmm, not adding up. To a human under non-disclosure agreement? Plausible.

Departments being trained in corporates to become the tech arm?

It’s like an additional wing being added to a hospital, to handle book-keeping. Use the wing for expanding the hospital? What a preposterous idea! Let’s all become jack of all trades. Why even bother specializing. For that we have AI, right, to handle the specialist surgeries?

Panics almost always take to ridiculous trajectories.

This one has now cracked open genuinely clean-balance-sheeted free-cashflow-generating companies. Who have decided to take on all blows without responding. Probably want their CMPs to hit three digits and then some before announcing anything. They seem to have forgotten what buybacks are.

With nothing to go on, where do you stand, regarding Core IT?

Clean balance sheets.

Zero debt.

Track record of navigating through disruption.

Free cash flow being generated year upon year.

That’s enough.

Two choices.

Hold on to your holdings and look elsewhere currently, for investing.

Add on, as in average down.

Depends upon your risk profile, which option you choose.

Liquidation, for me, is not an option, given this :

Clean balance sheets.

Zero debt.

Track record of navigating through disruption.

Free cash flow being generated year upon year.

What am I doing?

Till lately I was averaging down.

Recently, I stopped averaging down in Core Tech. That’s a change in trajectory. Ya, have been investing elsewhere recently. Going to hold Core IT through, and accumulate further only above my buying averages for Core IT stocks. The exact change that’s happened is that now I need these stocks to speak out with their deeds and propel themselves to above my buying averages, before buying more. Might not happen soon. That’s fine. The reasons for comfort in holding are these :

Clean balance sheets.

Zero debt.

Track record of navigating through disruption.

Free cash flow being generated year upon year.

As long as these reasons exist, holding beyond while focusing elsewhere is the change that’s happened at Magic Bull.

Why, you ask? Why a change from the staunch attitude earlier?

It’s a matter of being in tune with one’s risk-profile. Till it wasn’t speaking up, I was comfortable averaging down. When it started to be bewildered by the goings on, I changed to being comfortable holding.

It’s ok. One can’t have the right opinion all the time. For a while, one can be wrong also. In those times that one feels one can be wrong also, making the switch from averaging down to only holding is ok, provided these exist :

Clean balance sheets.

Zero debt.

Track record of navigating through disruption.

Free cash flow being generated year upon year.

Only Misses for the DoomNixers

Posted on by
Reply

Stadiums full.

This is what we see at the FIFA World Cup.

Gloom and doom about no one travelling to watch…

…seems to be nixed.

Are any doomsdayers amounting to anything?

AI taking over and slaying all else?

It’s a collab. No one’s taking over anything completely.

US markets were supposed to crash…

…like yesterday. And with that, the world.

Whenever a full blown crash does happen, it will very probably be at a time when most shorters are exhausted, read in big losses and retired hurt, didn’t want to use the word bankrupt.

AI is supposed to lead the ‘bubble burst’.

Has AI just smelt some monetization in collab with the back-offices of the world?

Back-offices have the capability to hold the system up on the back of their picks and shovels work, which, obviously, DoomNixers ‘nix’ themselves upon. You see, it’s not glamorous enough. They didn’t see it at all thus, and stumbled and fell.

Here’s another one : No one can beat the effthurteefiive. True? Hmmm. We saw what we saw.

Attackers felt they would bring the opponent down over the weekend. Opponents, fighting for their lives, seem to have emerged better than their attackers.

When one fights for one’s life, one fights with every ounce of resource and every joule of energy.

The Dean at his Univ advised Max Planck to study Music instead of Physics, since he felt that every meaningful thing in Physics had been discovered already.

Max Planck went on to found a whole new branch of sciences. Quantum Physics. On which anything and everything today is based.

There’s this thing about optimists. They believe in their systems, their hard work. Their ability to fight for their lives. For their systems. For the passing on of their legacies.

Max Planck fought for the entire field of Physics, and what a legacy he’s passed on. Conventional Physics builds the framework, and Quantum allows us to traverse the Universe.

Core Tech is fighting for its life. Pushed to the wall, it will devise a way to emerge, as a monetizing handholder for AI to be implemented. It’s fought for its life many times before and has emerged victorious, and very lucratively.

There are two paths emerging here, in the example with Core Tech.

Path one – DoomNix. Pronounce it dead. Invest elsewhere, with expensive valuations.

Path two – research. Find companies that are transforming with the times, with clean balance sheets and free cashflows. Invest in these, as valuations are very reasonable currently.

One can even follow both paths MINUS the doomnixing. Meaning that one takes punts in expensive companies, no idea how that will pan out in the very long-term, and one also invests in very reasonably priced and transforming Core Tech, with clean balance sheets and free cashflows. This will give a decent return in the very long-term.

We leave the doomnixing to the pessimists, nay-sayers, lacking-in-hopers, non-believers in themselves and in good systems – this breed will keep collecting misses in life.

Having expunged the breed from our eco-systems, we stride ahead with our very long-term bullish view in our growth market, since the essence of sitting on a compounding portfolio for multiple decades is…

…an optimist mindset.

Life at Frontier Minus One

Posted on by
Reply

Sanity prevails…

…at frontier minus one.

Rat race is within the underlying’s…

control.

Virtual / quasi / substantial / semi debt-free-ness…

exists.

Free cash-flow generation on the balance sheet is…

…common.

At frontier minus one, the narrative is …

…under control…

…as proven by self-determination of speed of change…

…and by exhibition of substantial growth.

Not at breakneck speeds.

Not by borrowing to the hilt.

Not by greedy behaviour.

Not by indigestible trajectory.

Not by a reckless ‘not giving a damn too bad if you’re not so fast’ attitude.

Life at frontier minus one…

…is somewhat balanced, with a flow.

Innovation at frontier minus one is achieved much faster

…than at frontier minus two, but much slower than at…

…frontier zero zero.

No tech company that wishes to thrive well into the future is currently functioning at…

…frontier minus two.

Either the transition to minus one has been made, or, it’s in the process.

Why not go for the jugular? Straight to zero zero.

Everyone has their role in this puzzle.

Imagine an older civilization going into battle.

There was a front line, paving the way, at immense cost.

There was a reserve support line, with artillery, first-aid, communication, and what have you.

There was a third line with supply, reinforcements, semi-trainees doing other stuff normally, etc.

There was aerial support, naval support, intelligence, research and analysis staff etc.

All combined to create an ensemble of actions.

Cut to now.

Warfare has changed.

Immense cost is still there, but immense cost to the front line, as in cost of life, has been reduced greatly, speak drone and missile warfare, supported by AI backed intelligence and analysis.

Point is, innovation, a different way of thinking, disruption and all their cousins will find a way to make things affordable, implementable.

That’s the way civilizations move forward.

Not for you or me to change. It’s the way of the world.

And that is what frontier minus one banks upon.

Meaning, to keep functioning at sustainable levels, slowly, painstakingly, in the process, simultaneously, finding a way, a connect, to frontier zero zero.

The connect can be of co-work. Amicable. Win-Win. You earn, we earn.

At frontier minus one, the world view is not to annihilate, but to…

…accommodate.

To win…

…together…

…in…

symbiosis.

Symbiosis

Posted on by
Reply

Imagine…

…the most value you can imagine.

That’s what this word is worth.

Especially now.

What’s the truth?

Existential question.

First we had everyone and their aunties proclaim the death of core Tech companies.

Hmmm.

Core Tech companies, and their chief protagonists, thought otherwise.

Number of believers kept waning though.

Until recently.

Something started to reverse in belief systems.

AI was behaving fantastically utilitarian with a human holding the reins.

Meaning, there needed to be a human there, for practical purposes.

Frontier AI deployed engineers to be the human face. Or so one was told.

Came the trust issue.

Do we double up on our trust in this no track record magician who just showed up out of nowhere?

Do we entrust privileged client data to the unknown?

Do we strip ourselves naked, TWICE?

NO.

Everyone and their uncles have answered with an emphatic NO.

Who is the human handler – the go-between – the trusted face – the rein holder?

Someone with a track record.

Proven.

Tried, and…

trusted.

Self-propelling.

With no liabilities. Spell ZERO DEBT.

With copious FREE CASH FLOW to INNOVATE FREELY…

…to navigate the reins successfully and as per the requirements of an enterprise.

Who is this entity?

None other than…

…our own very well known…

CORE TECH.

Leaner.

Hungry to prove its point.

To have its raison d’être acknowledged, and paid for.

To earn and compound steadily.

Forget about dying. Let’s talk about long term thriving.

Then, we had the captains of frontier AI admitting, that yes, ‘we do need core tech handholding to be implemented successfully’.

Gone was the initial hubris, that ‘we had come to wipe out old thought patterns, and all old systems’.

Reality had dawned, and these captains at least had the decency to admit it.

Actually, they had realized that their existence now depended upon how much their infrastructure would seep through. And…

…that no one was trusting them enough to hand over the job of seeping through to them, but much rather, to trusted old compatriots, to Core Tech.

So they came forward to shake hands.

Good.

Symbiosis.

We want to move forward on the back of this symbiosis.

There will be gigantic and fast development on the back of this symbiosis.

We are looking at space travel, space colonization, disease control, climate change, cheap solar, cheap desalination, perhaps even alien integration and partnership – unimaginable perhaps a few months ago, but possibly conceivable on the back of this symbiosis.

There’s new talk which has recently emerged, from the other extreme, and needs to be discarded, like its mirror image on the opposite side of the bell curve. This is the talk of frontier AI dying out because of becoming unaffordable.

Well, in whatever shape it exists currently, frontier AI does have tremendous capacity to solve problems.

Let it do just that on the back of this symbiosis, and earnings will start to flow.

Core Tech won’t let it wither, frontier AI has now become their raison d’être too.

Don’t you see it?

Two universes are converging, each needing the other to survive.

In the end, they become one universe.

Companies will merge. Synergies will multiply. Mega projects will be achieved, faster, more bombastically.

Earnings will flow.

Where do you want to be?

Remaining a doomsdayer will not help you.

Get into the flow.

Invest into debt-free, free cash-flow generating core tech as value deepens.

Look for debt-free, frontier minus one, free cash-flow generating semi AI companies, research these thoroughly for any red flags, and if those found are manageable, put in some funds.

If you find a frontier tech with manageable debt and a reasonable balance sheet, with a PEG ratio (price to earnings ratio divided by earnings per share growth percentage for the fiscal) somewhat under control. ok, put in some money there too.

Get out of the doomsday mindset.

Put your money to work, and then lock it in for another twenty years. Leave the compounded proceeds to your children.

Now.

Let the crashes come. There will be compounding post crashes too. Just look at the monthly chart of an IT index from 1995 to today. Dot-com peak looks miniscule and low compared to the levels of the monthly chart today.

Enough talking. Do the recce and then let’s talk.