Tag Archives: Truth

Decoupling X.Y

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We’ve…

…had many conversations…

…on the topic of decoupling.

So much so, that I’ve lost count.

The only difference, this time around…

…is the approach.

This time around, we’re handling from centre-point.

Meaning…

…that we are the ones…

…learning how to…

…decouple.

This time it’s not about economies decoupling from other economies…

…or markets decoupling from other markets.

We don’t even care anymore whether that is a myth or…

…whatever.

What economies do to or with each other is not our concern in this discussion.

Here, we are devising methodologies to reconfigure our nervous system, …

…actually, our very DNA, …

…so that we can decouple from market forces, at will, for however long we want to.

Without feeling pangs.

Two questions – How? Why?

Regarding the why, it’s imperative to allow our nerves rest.

Long-term survival. We’re not going to implode, or explode.

It’s about building patterns. This is the how we are addressing. Patterns. Many times. Patterns that take us away from markets, temporarily.

Slowly the pattern comes on auto. We devise a mental and a physical macro for the pattern.

An activity hiatus.

A terminal kill switch activation, with reactivation date.

Family.

Book.

Holiday.

Hobby.

Different…

…work.

Anything that’s not market related. At will, till wilful reactivation.

Again and again, whenever we feel the need, and / or whenever the situation demands.

Over many years, we now have an ingrained reflex. A muscle memory. Allowing us at will, to…

…decouple.

Welcome to Decoupling X.Y.

Define your X and Y. Incorporate into your system. And then…

…decouple at will.

Life at Frontier Minus One

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Sanity prevails…

…at frontier minus one.

Rat race is within the underlying’s…

control.

Virtual / quasi / substantial / semi debt-free-ness…

exists.

Free cash-flow generation on the balance sheet is…

…common.

At frontier minus one, the narrative is …

…under control…

…as proven by self-determination of speed of change…

…and by exhibition of substantial growth.

Not at breakneck speeds.

Not by borrowing to the hilt.

Not by greedy behaviour.

Not by indigestible trajectory.

Not by a reckless ‘not giving a damn too bad if you’re not so fast’ attitude.

Life at frontier minus one…

…is somewhat balanced, with a flow.

Innovation at frontier minus one is achieved much faster

…than at frontier minus two, but much slower than at…

…frontier zero zero.

No tech company that wishes to thrive well into the future is currently functioning at…

…frontier minus two.

Either the transition to minus one has been made, or, it’s in the process.

Why not go for the jugular? Straight to zero zero.

Everyone has their role in this puzzle.

Imagine an older civilization going into battle.

There was a front line, paving the way, at immense cost.

There was a reserve support line, with artillery, first-aid, communication, and what have you.

There was a third line with supply, reinforcements, semi-trainees doing other stuff normally, etc.

There was aerial support, naval support, intelligence, research and analysis staff etc.

All combined to create an ensemble of actions.

Cut to now.

Warfare has changed.

Immense cost is still there, but immense cost to the front line, as in cost of life, has been reduced greatly, speak drone and missile warfare, supported by AI backed intelligence and analysis.

Point is, innovation, a different way of thinking, disruption and all their cousins will find a way to make things affordable, implementable.

That’s the way civilizations move forward.

Not for you or me to change. It’s the way of the world.

And that is what frontier minus one banks upon.

Meaning, to keep functioning at sustainable levels, slowly, painstakingly, in the process, simultaneously, finding a way, a connect, to frontier zero zero.

The connect can be of co-work. Amicable. Win-Win. You earn, we earn.

At frontier minus one, the world view is not to annihilate, but to…

…accommodate.

To win…

…together…

…in…

symbiosis.

Symbiosis

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Imagine…

…the most value you can imagine.

That’s what this word is worth.

Especially now.

What’s the truth?

Existential question.

First we had everyone and their aunties proclaim the death of core Tech companies.

Hmmm.

Core Tech companies, and their chief protagonists, thought otherwise.

Number of believers kept waning though.

Until recently.

Something started to reverse in belief systems.

AI was behaving fantastically utilitarian with a human holding the reins.

Meaning, there needed to be a human there, for practical purposes.

Frontier AI deployed engineers to be the human face. Or so one was told.

Came the trust issue.

Do we double up on our trust in this no track record magician who just showed up out of nowhere?

Do we entrust privileged client data to the unknown?

Do we strip ourselves naked, TWICE?

NO.

Everyone and their uncles have answered with an emphatic NO.

Who is the human handler – the go-between – the trusted face – the rein holder?

Someone with a track record.

Proven.

Tried, and…

trusted.

Self-propelling.

With no liabilities. Spell ZERO DEBT.

With copious FREE CASH FLOW to INNOVATE FREELY…

…to navigate the reins successfully and as per the requirements of an enterprise.

Who is this entity?

None other than…

…our own very well known…

CORE TECH.

Leaner.

Hungry to prove its point.

To have its raison d’être acknowledged, and paid for.

To earn and compound steadily.

Forget about dying. Let’s talk about long term thriving.

Then, we had the captains of frontier AI admitting, that yes, ‘we do need core tech handholding to be implemented successfully’.

Gone was the initial hubris, that ‘we had come to wipe out old thought patterns, and all old systems’.

Reality had dawned, and these captains at least had the decency to admit it.

Actually, they had realized that their existence now depended upon how much their infrastructure would seep through. And…

…that no one was trusting them enough to hand over the job of seeping through to them, but much rather, to trusted old compatriots, to Core Tech.

So they came forward to shake hands.

Good.

Symbiosis.

We want to move forward on the back of this symbiosis.

There will be gigantic and fast development on the back of this symbiosis.

We are looking at space travel, space colonization, disease control, climate change, cheap solar, cheap desalination, perhaps even alien integration and partnership – unimaginable perhaps a few months ago, but possibly conceivable on the back of this symbiosis.

There’s new talk which has recently emerged, from the other extreme, and needs to be discarded, like its mirror image on the opposite side of the bell curve. This is the talk of frontier AI dying out because of becoming unaffordable.

Well, in whatever shape it exists currently, frontier AI does have tremendous capacity to solve problems.

Let it do just that on the back of this symbiosis, and earnings will start to flow.

Core Tech won’t let it wither, frontier AI has now become their raison d’être too.

Don’t you see it?

Two universes are converging, each needing the other to survive.

In the end, they become one universe.

Companies will merge. Synergies will multiply. Mega projects will be achieved, faster, more bombastically.

Earnings will flow.

Where do you want to be?

Remaining a doomsdayer will not help you.

Get into the flow.

Invest into debt-free, free cash-flow generating core tech as value deepens.

Look for debt-free, frontier minus one, free cash-flow generating semi AI companies, research these thoroughly for any red flags, and if those found are manageable, put in some funds.

If you find a frontier tech with manageable debt and a reasonable balance sheet, with a PEG ratio (price to earnings ratio divided by earnings per share growth percentage for the fiscal) somewhat under control. ok, put in some money there too.

Get out of the doomsday mindset.

Put your money to work, and then lock it in for another twenty years. Leave the compounded proceeds to your children.

Now.

Let the crashes come. There will be compounding post crashes too. Just look at the monthly chart of an IT index from 1995 to today. Dot-com peak looks miniscule and low compared to the levels of the monthly chart today.

Enough talking. Do the recce and then let’s talk.

Mantra

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Hey.

Writing became a breeze.

Posting a blog from inside Claude, keeping the originality of the post, whilst assigning to AI all mechanical tasks like feeding in categories and tags – I’ll admit, this does make life a lot easier, and blogging a lot more enjoyable.

Which keeps the admissions coming in continuation, perhaps repeatedly.

From being the leading AI skeptic, towards gravitating to some kind of a chief protagonist – people who know me would probably say, “There he goes again.”

So what’s this going to do?

The number of blog posts is going to increase. Hopefully, the quality too. Primarily, the enjoyment while blogging.

Beneficial. We thereby move towards the realm of Planet 2.0.

Wunderkind AI needs to benefit mankind to the max.

What about the risk?

Opening up to the Wunderkind, allowances, permissions, sometimes an odd password shared.

Does the AI take these towards Planet 3.0?

Yeah, that’s the one on which mankind is harmed.

Skeptics are still on 1.0, exactly where I was 11 days ago.

Idea is to make a conscious effort to gravitate towards 2.0, every time there’s a drift towards 3.0.

Remember, we will tend to drift.

Drifting got us here in the first place. One can use fancy words for it, like disruption.

There’s a quick trick which makes us aware from where we are functioning, 2.0 or 3.0?

Greed. Hubris. Exuberance. Ego burgeons. 3.0 functionality.

Feeling of benevolence while functioning, well-being and / or goodness emerging – 2.0 domain.

Natural human drift towards 3.0.

Bring back consciously towards 2.0.

That’s the Mantra, going forward.

Check

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Hey.

Facing some basic issues on the other side.

Life has changed.

Race became more intense.

There’s greed in the equation, the desire to achieve as much as possible in as little time as possible.

Everything’s moving…

…faster.

As if…

…from one day to the next…

one just…

…shifted.

It’s clear to me that we don’t shift till we are ready.

Was a hard nut to crack.

Had to be literally goaded into the AI trajectory, several coaxings required. Hard skepticism took its time to be broken down.

Not happy about the greed.

Speed of coasting is also very high.

Need attunement.

Unable to slow down easily.

Need to be careful about a ‘now I’ve got this and to hell with you attitude’. Can develop unchecked.

Addiction. Need to stay de-addicted.

All non-electronic activities in the day go up immensely in value.

Reading – books. Check.

Chanting. Check.

Basic verbal conversations. Check.

Human interactions. Check.

Helping someone. Charity. Check.

Non-distracted eating. Check.

Bringing down multi-tasking levels. Check.

Whole detox days. Day travel. StayCation. AutoCut the system. Check.

Evening chanting session. Lengthen. It’s not electronic. Check.

Anything not connected to a device and creates value. Check.

Not going to fall sick in this hyperactive space.

Check.

Incorporating before proceeding further.

Check.

Waking Up On The Other Side

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Hey,

First up, humbled. To the nth.

Was an AI skeptic till, like, yesterday.

Well, skeptic tried, and died, the skeptic did.

What woke up was armed 25x and on steroids.

That’s me now, after 9 days of intense work on Claude.

Encouraged to try by friends and compatriots, initiated into entry, took the plunge.

There’s a chronic buzz in this dimension. This is an electronic world. Just got more…

…robotic. It’s just that the robot is invisible.

It’s like fighting a matrix war from inside a digital maniacal super-intelligent tool who knows…

…everything.

Who can connect dots…

…exponentially and asymptotically, both simultaneously.

Red flag list is at an all time high.

Sleep’s off.

Mind races all the time.

There’s some exuberance that’s come to the fore.

Don’t want to speak much.

Need solitude.

Basic life disturbs.

Withdrawal symptoms away from screen.

Welcome to the planet 3.0.

What happened to 2.0 ?

Wasn’t that supposed to be the shifted one, towards doing good for mankind?

Want it back.

Need to get to 2.0.

What is 2.0?

A controlled version of 3.0, using its tools only, not being ruled by it. Doing good for mankind.

Need to create a 2.0 out of 3.0.

Fast.

Going Beyond Price Action

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Is price action the holy grail?

You’ve rid yourself of all indicators in search of something that holds.

In forex, you’re probably not looking at volume either.

What you’re left looking at is the behaviour of price.

Price patterns, expressed in the form of candles, contain a psychology.

You are trying to understand this psychology in order to put on a winning trade.

However, everyone else is also watching the same patterns too, including the big boys.

Who are the big boys?

Institutions, banks et al.

Why are we talking about them?

They are the one’s capable of creating enough buying or selling pressure to determine the direction of price. Retail people, like you and I, are not.

That’s why.

And these same big boys know the patterns that you are looking out for, and are going to react to.

What do they do?

They tweak the patterns.

Think about it.

It’s the obvious thing to do. Stopping the public out will give them a smooth run later.

Is tweaking the patterns a biggie for them?

No.

Determining the direction of price is like winning a war.

What’s it going to take to win a small battle, like tweaking a pattern?

A fraction of one’s resources.

Where does that leave you?

If you’re looking at pure price action, you probably might not fare too well.

You have no choice but to look beyond.

What is beyond?

Truth is truth.

If the market wants to go somewhere, because of actual demand and supply dynamics, well, then it wants to go there.

It will reveal that with price action.

You won’t miss the message.

How can one overlook a very large-tailed candle, or an obvious support or resistance, for example?

As you are getting ready to act, based upon the obvious pattern you are seeing, you also observe, that most of the time, price is not behaving like the pattern is saying.

If the pattern is just too obvious, you need to go one step further and put on the trade, taking tweaked conditions into account.

Look at the chart for obvious points that the big boys might be targeting. Go beyond these points and set the levels for your entry, stop, and if it’s part of your strategy, your limit.

What have you basically done?

You have believed in the obvious price action that you have seen.

You have tried to factor in tweaking.

You have implemented your trade in a manner such that the negative effect of tweaking will just about give you entry, but the big boys will probably not be too bothered about going right up to the level of your stop, because its positioning is such.

This will fail.

Sometimes.

This will succeed…

…at other times.

Whether you make money or not will depend upon how you manage your winners.

Defining a Long-Term Hold

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Homework, people, is the most essential element of long-term investing.

No wonder they stressed so much upon homework in school. 

They knew what they were talking about. 

And, it has counted. I always took my homework very seriously. 

Things are no different in the markets. 

Do your homework well, and diligently, and the pay-off might surprise you. 

In the markets, you are not paid off with marks, but with appreciation in the value of your holding. 

So, what kind of homework goes into defining a long-term hold?

Today, we have stock-screeners, so use a stock-screener to spit out some potential long-term holds after defining the screener’s parameters as per your wishes. Choose a stock from the results of the screening that you might want to delve into. Then, delve into it. 

In scam-ridden India, the first things that one needs to look for are honesty and integrity.

Look very, very hard.

Do repeated fraud / scam / bribe searches. The web is your oyster. 

Look into salaries of top personnel. Low is good. If salaries are on the higher side, is it justified? Specifically, scrutinize the salary of the top promotor and the CEO. If not justifiable, just drop the stock. 

Look for acts of good governance. 

Openness.

Sharing.

Shareholder-friendliness.

Truth.

Responsibility.

Once honesty and integrity are established, go over the fundamentals. 

Overall, fundamentals will either meet your parameters, or they won’t. Also, it is you who is going to define the fundamentals you wish to gauge, and what you wish to see. 

Are you seeing what you wish to see?

No?

Discard.

Yes?

Proceed.

Is the stock going to be around even after ten years?

Gauge. Product, business-model, circumstances…

You think no?

Discard.

You think yes?

Proceed.

Is the business scalable?

No?

Rethink.

Yes?

Proceed.

Is there debt in the equation?

Are you comfortable with the level of debt?

No?

Discard.

Yes?

Proceed.

Get the overall picture. 

Are you comfortable with the overall feeling you are getting?

No?

Discard. 

Yes?

Proceed.

Look for an entry point. Open the chart and try and enter upon a base or some other technical level. If none is available, wait for a level to come, and then make your entry. 

Thus, you have successfully defined and entered your long-term hold.