Dealing with Demotivation

Every now and then…

…we don’t feel like working. 

This…

…happens. 

Let’s not PhD over it. 

After accepting the onset of periodical demotivation, let’s focus on dealing with it. 

Nullify the cause. Let’s at least try.

Hungry? Eat.

Fight? Resolve.

Losing streak? Review, tweak, test, re-implement.

Unhappy? Chant. Then work. 

Let’s say one is not able to nullify the cause. 

Let’s take a stock. It’s down. You hold it. There’s nothing wrong with it. 

If you’re demotivated here, aha, please rewire your psychology. 

When something fundamentally and technically sound is down, we buy more of it. 

However, every bone in our body feels deflated upon an accrued notional loss. 

That’s how we humans are wired. We hate losing. We want to win all the time. The best time to buy good stocks is, though, when they’re losing. 

Therefore, …

… rewire,…

…if you want to survive in the markets. 

Once you’re done rewiring, get back to your desk, and buy more of that something fundamentally and technically sound offering margin of safety. 

Lazy?

Market will finish you. Cut it out. Back to your desk.

Wish to get away from your desk? Fine, take your laptop, ipad and smartphone to your easy-chair. Work.

Nothing’s working? Take a small break. Watch an episode of “Billions”, or of whatever gets you going. 

Done?

Let’s go.

We’ve got stamina.

The Number One Reason

Yeah, what is it?

What’s the number one reason why we fail in a long-term investment?

I’ve made this mistake, and true, those investments didn’t work out well for me.

However, I’ve stopped making this mistake.

That’s right. I don’t buy without margin of safety anymore.

Even a growth stock will eventually offer you some kind of margin of safety.

Wait for it to.

So, why doesn’t an investment work out that hasn’t been bought with margin of safety?

Mathematics…

…and psychology.

Lesser the margin of safety, the more difficult it is to make a multiple. Just do the math.

Then, investor-psychology is such, that investments bought without margin of safety don’t allow the investor to sit.

They disturb the investor when they go against him or her.

The more an investment goes against an investor, the more he or she jumps.

In the end, too much jumping leads to an erratic decision.

In the worst case scenario, one bails out of a sound investment at the lowest point of the market.

How does one avoid something like this?

Learn to sit.

Create circumstances around yourself that allow you to sit.

Buy with margin of safety.

An investment bought with ample margin of safety allows you to sit even when the investment is down.

Because you’re holding sound investments, …

… sitting makes you win in the long-term.

The Cue from Disturbia

I am disturbed. 

This stock that I’m invested in is continuing to fall. 

That’s ok.

I want to be disturbed. 

That’s my cue…

…to invest more in the stock.

I’m in the stock for a reason. 

Something appeals to me. 

That something continues to appeal to me, despite the continuous fall. 

If that were not the case, the case for the stock would be closed, and one would look to get rid of it on a market high. 

However, that is the case,…

…and, I follow the small entry quantum strategy.

Where does that leave me?

My investment in the stock is small.

I am liquid.

That’s the beauty of the small entry quantum strategy.

It leaves you liquid.

Continued fall means better margin of safety, and that another quantum can go in.

The small entry quantum strategy ensures multiple entry opportunities as the stock continues to generate margin of safety.

When do my ears stand up?

When the fall is disturbing enough. 

The fall is the cue to go in. 

It is from Disturbia. 

Who said making money was easy?

This strategy works as long as one’s research is sound. 

Let’s go with what works.

Trigger-Happiness triggering your happiness?

Action?

All the time?

Do you crave it?

And, are you in the markets?

Boy, do you have your work cut out for you, or do you have your work cut out for you?

Ideally, your long-term investment should not give you action.

When it does, it should push you to act.

What backfires is when you act to push it.

Unless you’re convinced by a stock, you don’t buy it.

Unless there’s margin of safety, you don’t buy it.

Unless there’s more margin of safety, you don’t re-buy it.

Unless you’re fed up with the stock or the antics of its management, you don’t sell it.

The whole long-term game is biased towards inaction.

Those who master the art of inaction are good long-term investors.

Bridging gaps is paramount.

What do you do with the vast amounts of time at your disposal?

Do twenty other things.

Create value in many walks of life.

Let the areas not overlap with any of the markets you are tapping.

Capture the attention of your mind.

What happens if you don’t?

Boredom, inaction or the need for action will propel you towards making a mistake.

Mistakes in the market cost money.

That’s how they’re defined.

Do yourself a huge favour.

Approach the markets after having embraced inaction.

Where do you want to be?

Where do I want to be?

Do I want to look at a stock price and know where things stand with the stock in question?

Yes.

That’s where I want to be.

It’s not going to come for free.

What will it take?

Looking at the stock…

…for an year or two.

That’s what it will take.

How boring, you say?

Sure.

When stock market investing seems boring…

…that’s when you’re doing it right.

Excitement and roller-coaster rides are for video-game pleasure, and for making losses.

Money is made when it’s outright boring out there.

Where do you want to be?

In the money?

I thought so.

Then, please get used to boring and don’t ever complain again that things are boring.

How does one position oneself in such a manner that one studies a stock for an year or two.

Hmmm.

Let’s put some skin in the game.

I know, this phrase is becoming more and more popular, what with Nicholas Taleb and all.

Yeah, we are picking up stock.

What stock?

The one we wish to observe for an year or two.

Why pick it up? Why not just observe it?

You won’t. You’ll let it go.

Why?

Because it’s not yours.

So we pick up the stock? What’s the point of observing if we’re picking it up now?

Well, we’re picking up a minute quantity – one quantum – now. That gets our skin into the game. Then we observe, and observe. Anytime there’s shareholder-friendly action by the management, we pick up more, another quantum. We keep picking up, quantum by quantum. Soon, while we’ve kept picking up, we’ve observed the stock for so long, that now, one look at the stock price tells us what kind of margin of safety we are getting in the stock at this point.

Wow.

Now, future entries become seamless. One look and we have a yes or no decision. Isn’t that wonderful?

Absolutely.

That’s where we want to be.

Busy Times

Market falls are busy times. 

No, we’re not busy whining. 

We’re busy buying.

Are we not afraid?

That the crack might deepen?

That it might go down to zero?

No.

We’re not afraid of this scenario. 

Meaning?

Meaning that even though such a scenario cannot be ruled out…

Huh!?

Yeah, it can’t be ruled out. With trade wars and back to back black swans waiting to strike, theoretically, the bottom is zero.

And you’re not afraid?

No.

Why?

Because I buy into fundamentally sound businesses…

…zero debt…

…great 5 year numbers…

…sometimes, great ten year numbers…

…and I buy with considerable margin of safety.

Still, one is normally always afraid, right?

Wrong. A small entry quantum strategy kicks out all remnant fear.

How?

This strategy leaves me liquid. Let it go down to zero. I’ll still have liquidity to buy.

And that which you’re buying…

…is sound, yes. If I buy something sound, it will yield returns. It’s like agriculture. Crops grow in good soil. They don’t grow well in bad soil. I make sure that I choose excellent soil.

How does one do that?

Due diligence. Period.

With all the scams and frauds going on…

Well, I look long and hard for shareholder-friendly managements. Representable salaries, willingness to share, largesse, debt-averseness, intelligence, business savvy, the list goes on.

What if you land up with a fraud management?

Solid research will make you avoid scamsters. I search the internet thoroughly for any kind of smoke. Crooks leave a trail, and one is able to catch their online trail pretty easily. 

Alone online?

Second recourse are annual reports. They reveal a lot. I don’t invest in a company without having a thorough look into its annual reports. I look at CSR, the director’s report, skin in the game, balance sheets, profit and loss statements, cash-flow, special items, what have you.

What if you still land up with a fraud?

After I know I’ve landed up with a fraud management, I would look to exit at the next market high. 

What if your holding is wiped out till then?

If it’s wiped out, I have many other holdings to lean on, and don’t forget the liquidity that is yet to flow into honest managements.

So you’re not afraid of the loss?

There is some risk one has to take. Here, it is the risk of being wrong. The good thing is, once I know that I’m wrong, I won’t double up on my wrong call. I’ll get busy elsewhere and look to exit from my wrong call with as little damage as possible, perhaps even in profit.

Profit?

You forget, I like to buy with margin of safety, and you’d be surprised at what people are willing to pay at market highs. 

I see, well then, happy investing!

Thanks! 🙂

Stamina of a Marathon Runner

Yes.

That’s what a small entry quantum approach demands of its player.

To be frank, I’ve not run any marathons on field and track.

However, I’ve done my share in life, and continue to do so. 

If it’s not a marathon, I don’t get a kick.

If you’ve got that in yourself, you’re cut out for the small entry quantum approach.

There’s repetition.

Boredom.

The long-haul.

Life in the background.

No hype.

Going on and on…

…till you break through,…

…and the contents of your portfolio spill over…

…and start to show.

Might take a few decades. 

Do you have it in you?

What will make you hold out?

Stick to the tenets of the small entry quantum approach, and you will not only hold out, but your folio will burgeon too.

Buy with surplus.

Buy with margin of safety.

Learn to sit.

Enter small. Many times.

Keep entering over the years, till there is reason to enter.

Exit on highs. Only get rid of those stocks you don’t feel like holding anymore.

No fear please. Kill it. Create the circumstances for fear to vanish.

No euphoria either. That’s a tough one, especially when the whole world is dancing around you. 

Do your homework. 

Don’t listen to anyone.

You’re set.

 

This is Why Your Blockbuster Gain Story is going to Happen

You’re learning to sit. 

You buy with margin of safety. 

You buy in small quanta,…

…and that’s why you’re always liquid,…

…to avail any opportunity that arises. 

Yeah, there’s nothing impeding your liquidity…

…because you’ve kept yourself virus-free, i.e. debt-free. 

You only buy quality…

…that’s going to be around for a long, long while,…

…because you don’t sell for a long, long while. 

You don’t listen to what the grapevine is saying…

…because of the conviction and strength of your own research and opinion.

Yes, you regularly go against the crowd. 

You either buy into debt-free-ness, or into managable debt that spurts growth. 

Your input into the market doesn’t affect your daily life, leaving you tension-free to address your non-market world and thrive in it,…

…and that is why,…

…for all the above reasons,…

…your blockbuster gain story is going to happen,…

…and what’s more,…

…you are also enjoying the ride leading up to it. 

We Don’t Want Anymore

There comes a time…

…when we don’t want anymore.

Why has this happened?

It’s a spin-off from our small entry quantum approach.

We’ve been buying at sale prices, with small entry quanta, each day, a quantum a day.

A groove has been set.

After umpteen failed attempts, prices break through.

An interesting thing happens to us.

Slightly higher prices start to pinch us.

As prices go even higher…

…our mood is off, and…

…we don’t want anymore.

From a strategy perspective, this is the best thing that could have happened to us.

We will not be buying as margin of safety vanishes and remains vanished.

Our want will be triggered once more, when margin of safety returns.

This has not taken place for free.

It is an indirect result of our painful sticking to a small entry quantum approach.

🙂

Factoring in Doomsday

Because of your small entry quantum, you are always liquid.

That’s how you have defined the strategy.

What happens when there’s a market crash?

Your existing folio takes a hit.

You’ve been buying with margin of safety.

Because of your small entry quantum strategy, your hit is not hitting you.

Your focus is elsewhere.

It is on the bargains that the crash has created.

You keep targeting these with your fresh entry quanta.

You keep getting margin of safety.

Suddenly you realise, that you like it.

You like being in bargain area.

You like the sale that’s going on.

It won’t always be so.

There will be times that you won’t be getting any margin of safety whatsoever.

Then, you realize another thing.

You’re not afraid of a crash…

…because…

…you are ready, to pick more.

What has empowered you?

Margin of safety.

Small entry quanta.

Controlled level of activity.

Great fundamentals.

Great managements.

Quality.

Crashes come. Crashes go.

You’ll keep buying stocks with the above criteria as per your outlined strategy, and you’ll keep adding on to your purchases with small entry quanta.

It’s not hurting you, because the money you’re putting in has been defined in such a manner.

Your mind has digested this definition, and your strategy is in place.

The market being down while you buy is a requirement for your strategy to be successful in the long run.

It is a good thing for you. It is not a bad thing.

It takes a while to realize this.

The Stand-Out Price

You’re ready with your small entry quantum,…

…looking to add on to you portfolio. 

You’re always liquid,…

…owing to your small entry quantum strategy. 

Where do you enter?

This is not a difficult question.

Why is this question not difficult?

That’s because the stocks in your portfolio are fundamentally tested, and have been found to be sound by you.  

Fundamental soundness is a bombastic plus. 

Now comes the next question.

Where is margin of safety being offered to you?

Is it enough margin of safety for you?

Are more stocks offering this kind of margin of safety?

What, then, is a stand-out price?

You will enter there. 

A stand-out price hits you in the eye. 

It is unusual. 

It speaks of a large fall such that the level of the price draws your attention within milliseconds. 

When you see a stand-out price on the way down like this, you ask the next questions. 

Why is the price where it is? 

What has happened?

Whatever that has happened, is it a one-time thing?

Is the momentum of the fall subsiding, or mid-way, or what?

Ask as many questions as you may want. 

The answer you want to drive at is yes or no.

Yes as in you would like to use your small entry quantum to pick up the stock in question. 

No as in you would like to wait for more clarification. 

If you pick up, you’re done for the day, if you follow a one-entry per day strategy, that is. 

If not, you look for another stand-out price. 

Making Equity Antifragile

Yeps, Taleb’s the famous one. 

Moi, je ne suis pas célèbre.

Néanmoins, j’aime le terme “antifragile” de Taleb.

Also, Taleb has termed equity as robust.

I do equity. 

I’d like my interaction and future with equity to be antifragile.

Let’s first look at Taleb’s definition for antifragile.

He says that anything that has more upside than downside from random events (or certain shocks), is antifragile; the reverse is fragile.

Robust equity will eventually crack when subjected to shock.

We are aware of that.

What do we do now?

Firstly, we take time, and put it in infinity mode. Meaning, that we stay invested, for a long, long, long time. 

We’re now allowing equity amply sufficient time to recover from not one shock, but many shocks.

Also, each time there is a shock, and equity tanks, we go in and buy some more.

How can we do this?

We are sufficiently liquid, all the time

Our small entry quantum approach is ensuring that. 

Also, we’ve chosen such equity first-up that is minimally susceptible to cracking. That’s the best we can do. 

We have either avoided debt altogether or chosen debt-levels that are adding value to the stock and can be easily taken care of in the short-term

We have chosen equity with decent quick and current ratios

We have chosen adaptable managements that function as optimal human capital, fighting inflation, showering shareholder-friendliness and adding value at all times

However, crack they do, eventually, and we keep picking up more. 

Since we’ve kept ourselves “infinitely” liquid as per our small entry quantum approach, we are then also “infinitely”poised to benefit from the cracks

As we keep getting more and more opportunities to buy with meaningful margins of safety, markets show us more upside than downside

Thus, antifragility comes to us as a function of falling price, given that the underlying has sound fundamentals, low to nil debt and benevolent, versatile and diligent management

Now, let the shocks come. 

In fact, let 20 shocks come. 

We want shocks to come…

…so that we can continue to buy at rock-bottom prices, which work in an antifragile manner for us, because of the characteristics of the equity and management we have chosen

Profiting from shocks?

More upside than downside? Owing to the effects of a shock?

What kind of behaviour is that?

That’s antifragile behaviour.

Negating Promoter Greed

You like a stock. 

You’ve checked it out. 

Fundamentals are under control. 

You find the management reasonable.

They’re shareholder-friendly. 

They have high salaries though, specifically those connected to the promoter-group. 

Now, you need to answer some questions.

Are you ok with high salaries for the top staff?

What is your definition of high?

Are salaries performance-driven?

Do the company’s number justify what promoter-connected management is taking home?

Ok. 

You’ve answered these questions. 

You still want the stock, despite the fact that an answer to two could be an outlier. 

That’s fine. 

One won’t find perfection anywhere. 

If one finds it, the stock will probably already be overpriced. 

So, you’re ok with mild imperfection, as long as your basic needs are met. 

You decide to purchase the stock. 

Here’s how you can negate promoter greed. 

The fancy cars, the family dish outs, the pushed-in lunch bills, the first class travel, you get the drift. 

Who doesn’t do it, given the opportunity?

Your promoter is human, and will surround him- or herself with comforts, at the company’s expense. 

That is the norm. Get used to it. 

Here’s how you are not letting this affect you. 

You buy in a staggered fashion. 

You buy with margin of safety. 

Because you’re sure of fundamentals, you average down. 

Each time your holding average touches a new low, you’ve secured yourself against promoter greed just a tad more. 

Because of sound fundamentals, ultimately, the stock will start to rise. 

That’s the time your low holding average will show a stellar profit for you. 

Perhaps your holding average is better than that of the promoter.

If that is the case, rise in price has given you more profit than it has to the promoter. 

Therefore, while the promoter got to live in the lap of luxury at the cost of the company, you were busy raking in a better result owing to the price rise.

Successive margin of safety buying amounting to averaging down after convincing oneself of intact fundamentals has been the key for you. 

Use this key, but do so wisely, and safely. 

Remember, that averaging down only works well in the case of diligent, research-based long-term investing. Averaging down is a strict no-no for short-term traders, however. 

Wishing you happy and fruitful investing!

🙂

Price Based Margin of Safety

You might laugh at this one.

However, it is need based. 

We have been talking so much about small entry quanta. 

A small entry quantum allows for smaller mistakes.

It allows you to enter many times. 

It is small enough to make your capacity for entry outlast the number of margin of safety market days in a year. 

You take your savings. You define what you want to invest in equity for the year. 

You divide it by an estimate for the margin of safety days you might be getting for the year. You arrive at this number by estimating over a ten year average. 

Upon this division, you get your daily entry quantum, for the whole year, on margin of safety days. 

I go one step further to keep a constant small entry quantum defined for longer periods, for any particular entry day. 

As we said, small entry quanta should also mean many entries. 

We won’t be getting the same margin of safety every day.

On many days, we won’t be getting margin of safety at all, in the purist sense of its definition.

We will need to tweak the definition of margin of safety a bit, to have access to many entries. 

We are doing this because we are already on safe grounds. 

First up, we are playing with money we won’t be requiring for the next ten years, or so we estimate. 

Then, this is the money that is coming from our savings and is going into equity. It is for no other purpose. If it eventually doesn’t go into equity, we will end up finding some other use for it, such is human nature, and such is the nature of these multi-tasking times. 

Thus, if we see even a smallish entry possibility, we take it, because of the nature of the small entry quantum approach. 

How do we propose to tweak margin of safety?

We watch the price of a scrip we are unable to enter in. 

We watch, and we watch. 

Still too high. High, too, are fundamental entry allowers (FEAs), like price to earnings, price to book value, price to cash-flow, price to sales, etc., and we don’t enter. 

Then, one day, price starts to drop, for whatever reason. 

It continues to drop to a level, where we feel that for this particular scrip, that’s a pretty decent correction. 

It’s all feeling. 

You can look at charts, but then you tend to look once a month, and the feeling element fails to develop properly. 

So, we’re feeling pretty good about the level of correction, and we cast a glance at the FEAs. 

These are still a tad high, albeit much lower than before. 

For the FEAs to become lower than classic margin of safety levels, there could be a longer wait, or this event might not even happen, especially if we are looking at growth scrips.

If the event does not happen, it means no entry, and with our approach of small entry quanta, this leaves us high and dry with respect to the scrip. 

Are we going to let that happen?

Because of our safe small entry quantum approach, we are not going to let that happen if we can help it. 

When price offers margin of safety but FEAs are still a tad high, we enter with one quantum. 

Then we wait.

Scrip quotes some percentage points (2%, 3%, 5%, you choose) lower than our last entry. We enter with one more quantum, and so on. 

Now, two things can happen. 

The scrip can start zooming from here, and you are going to feel good about your entries. 

Or, the scrip falls further, and quotes lower than classical FEA definitions for margin of safety. 

Are you going to feel bad about your previous entries, which were small mistakes?

No.

Why?

You are too busy undertaking further entries into the scrip, quantum by quantum, for as long as the scrip quotes at levels below classical FEA definitions for margin of safety. 

Soon, you have a lot of entries done, at these safe levels, and you have more than made up for your few small mistakes. 

You’re good. 

In the other scenario, you were good anyways. 

Thanks to your small entry quantum strategy, it’s been a win-win for you all around. 

 

Not Everyday is an MoS Day

Dear Long-Term Investors,

How are you?

Hope this finds you in the pink of health, and without itchy fingers. 

After running through a 70-odd day corrective phase, the Indian markets don’t seem to be offering margin of safety (MoS) anymore. 

Or so I feel. 

The groove had become natural from mid January to the beginning of April. 

There was something to be bought, almost everyday. 

One would wake up thinking about what one would be buying for the long-term when the markets opened. 

Over the last ten days, I haven’t felt like buying anything. 

My fingers are itchy.

I’m raring to go. 

However, margin of safety is not there. 

It might return, in some form or the other, and that too soon. However, it doesn’t prevail just now, as per my understanding. 

Where does that leave me?

I can now opt for compulsive buying. However, my market experience has taught me otherwise. It’s a simple rule – no margin of safety, no buying. Period. 

I focus on other stuff. 

I have a trading operation. 

I focus on that. 

I write. 

I read.

I chant. 

I plan my summer vacation. 

I attend to family matters. 

There’s other business that needs attending. 

I travel. 

However, I don’t resort to compulsive buying. 

Can you stop yourself from compulsive buying? However itchy your fingers are?

It’s not easy. Nevertheless, it’s mandatory. 

The follow-through energy from an existing groove needs to be diverted until it is fully dissipated. 

If you don’t succeed with this, you’ll end up with over-priced buys in your long-term portfolio.

This spells disaster, because lack of margin of safety won’t allow you to sit when markets crash. 

And crash they will. 

Every market crashes, some time or the other. 

That’s when your margin of safety allows you to sit quietly and sleep properly. 

You then have the acumen to recognize the re-existence of margin of safety.

Also, you have the energy to act upon your identification of the re-existence of margin of safety. 

You buy more, because MoS days are there again. 

How to Enter into a Growth Stock

You can play this one in different ways.

The successful way for you will depend upon your risk profile.

What we will be discussing here is a kind of a value way for growth stock entry.

Fine. What sets growth stocks apart from value stocks?

Valuation.

Growth stocks have high multiples.

What does that leave us margin of safety people?

Will we completely have to stay away from growth stocks?

No.

There’s a way.

Loosen your margin of safety criteria slightly. Bring it up to, for example, PE < 15, amongst other things. (We’ll compensate for this loosening, you’ll see).

Now wait.

Let the stock correct.

PE goes under 15.

Don’t enter yet.

Now we compensate.

We let more margin of safety develop in the price.

We want price going down to a technically viable level for entry.

This can be a Fibonacci level, a support, a base, a pivot, or what have you.

Three things have happened.

You have identified a stock through your due diligence.

You have waited for it to reach desired valuation after raising your valuation criteria a tad to compensate for the growth aspect.

You have compensated for your compensation by waiting further for a technical level to be hit before entering.

Now, you enter.

Your entry price becomes your base. (Subsequent entries will always refer to the base-price average).

You have entered with your minimum entry quantum.

You will take many entries, each with your minimum entry quantum.

You will keep taking entry till all the above criteria keep being met.

When even one criterion is not met, you will stop entering and will sit tight.

You will keep watching the stock and its management.

If entry criteria are not met for a long time, but stock is still not over-valued as such, you can enter once for every shareholder-friendly act of good governance, upon an interim dip in price.

You will only stop entering when over-valuation rules and becomes obvious.

You will think of exiting when you are no longer convinced about the stock.

Exit will be done upon a market high only.

Hopefully, you won’t need to exit for a long, long time, so that your investment turns into a multi-multi-bagger!

🙂

When is it Ok to Average Down?

Just remember one thing…

…that the words “averaging down”…

…only go with long-term investing. 

They do NOT go with trading. 

After you have fully digested and understood the above, let’s to to the when. 

When does averaging down go with investing?

The answer to this is – only after doing proper homework. 

If you’ve not researched the underlying well enough, don’t even think about averaging down, because you could be throwing good money after bad. 

When there’s a correction, the long-term investor does get tempted to increase his or her holding, because of the lucrative prices that are on offer. 

Sure, why not?

Please understand, that this “sure, why not” is coming out so casually because of course the long-termer has worked overtime to arrive at the conclusion that he or she wishes to increase his or her stake in something that is already being held. 

The fall in the price of the underlying does not perturb the long-termer. Solid research has been done, and the markets make huge mispricing blunders when in free fall. Market players go all psycho and discard their precious holdings at throw-away prices. Picking up quality stocks at bargains is exactly what the long-termer is in it for.

The long-termer has done a few more things. 

Family has been secured with multiple income-sources and emergency funds. What’s going into the market is sheer surplus, not envisaged to be required over the next ten years. 

Then, entry quantum is small each time, small enough so that entries can be made all year round, and there will still be ample savings left after all entries. 

How does one calculate a small enough entry quantum that satisfies all of the above criteria?

One works backwards. 

Pinpoint your income after tax for the year.

Decide what you wish to amply save. Subtract this from your income. Further, subtract expenses. You are left with an amount. Decide whether all of this amount can go into the market, or whether only a part. Maybe you wish to go for a holiday with your family, or perhaps you wish to buy a vehicle, or what have you. Subtract such additional expenditure too. Finally, you are left with the amount that you wish to plough into the market, over the course of the year. 

Next, take the amount, and divide it by 30, or 40 or 50. 

Why?

On the down-side, the market could offer you margin of safety on 30 of the days that it is open in the year. On the up side, the number could be 50. We are talking about ten-year average numbers. During a singular correction, the market could offer margin of safety continually for the whole year. Decide what your magic number is. 30-40-50 days per year works ok over a ten year period. Divide the amount you’ve set aside with the number you’re comfortable with to arrive at your entry quantum per entry-day, for the year in question. Now you can keep going in with this same quantum through out the year whenever margin of safety is offered, and you generally won’t have to worry about running out of investing money, on average. 

Great stock-picking, excellent due diligence, surplus going in, small-enough entry quantum, ability to sit – the long-termer is armed with these weapons, and now, he or she can average down as much as desired, whenever margin of safety is offered.  

Margin of Safety and Trading

MoS and trading have a somewhat funny relationship.

When MoS is offered, you don’t feel like looking at your trading portfolio.

Why?

Because it is bleeding?

Maybe.

Actually, you are in a hurry to clock some long-term investments. After all, there’s MoS on the table. Yes, you’d much rather occupy yourself with your long-term portfolio.

With serious MoS in the pipeline, the market makes it easier for you. It bludgeons your trading portfolio, such that you sheer exit it, and now you are free to focus solely on your long-term investing portfolio.

Fine. Great. Is that it?

There’s a tad more to the connection between MoS and trading.

What is trading?

Buying high, and selling higher? Selling low, and buying back lower? Yes, that’s trading.

On first instinct, you’d buy on a high, or sell on a low, that’s what you’d think.

However, on the ground, margin of safety makes itself felt.

Players wait for the underlying to correct a bit, or rally a bit, and then pick it up, or sell it. They’re not picking it up on the fresh high, with no resistance opposing them. They are taking a chance, that there will be a correcting move, and that’s when they will pick it up. Vice-versa for the bears.

Those few extra buck of fall will add to their profits when the underlying starts to rise again and makes new highs. Expressed for the bears, those few extra bucks of rise will add to their profits when the underlying starts to fall again and makes new lows.

The pay-off is, that this doesn’t always work. The trader might miss the trade altogether, if the correcting or rallying move does not take place, and the underlying zooms (falls) to make one high (low) after another.

So when does waiting for MoS actually work in trading?

Almost always. Except…

…when it’s a full-blown bull or bear run.

This means that it works like 90% of the time, which is a pretty high number.

Does that make you want to adopt MoS full-time while trading too?

Of course it does.

How do you still make use of the opposite strategy – buying upon highs, or selling upon lows?

You let a few setups go amiss. Missing a couple of trades due to bull or bear runs is the signal.

Now you can switch to buying on fresh highs or selling on fresh lows.

A Small Entry Quantum per Day Keeps the Doctor Away

Your ears are probably swelling from all this talk about a small entry quantum (SEQ) per day.

However, you are also noticing the practical element of the SEQ, especially during the current correction.

Whatever’s happening in the world is happening. We need to long-term invest on the basis of what’s being offered to us. When we see margin of safety, we act.

However, we could go on seeing margin of safety for years upon end. Therefore, our entry quantum per day is small, so small that we can last out purchasing for quite a while, and still have ample liquidity left over for all other necessary aspects of life.

There’s another benefit of the SEQ though.

Let’s say that one of your holding turns rogue.

It can happen. So many scams are emerging. There’s a new scam every day.

So let’s just assume, for assumption’s sake, that the management of one of the stocks you are holding is involved in a fraud, and this fraud has come to light.

Where does that leave you?

You stop accumulation of this stock immediately.

Don’t expunge it yet. You’ll lose out. What if the scam is a hoax? Find out. It might blow over. Management might change. Your conviction in the stock might be rekindled. Wait for a market high. If you’re still not convinced about the stock anymore, expunge it on a market high.

What did the small entry quantum do for you here?

You had accumulated the stock over some kind of period, SEQ by SEQ, right?

When the fraud exploded, your holding wasn’t that sizeable. SEQ, remember.

A fraud management won’t wait multiple years to let their fraudulent natures act. Sooner or later, a fraud will get caught. Sooner the better. When this one is caught, your holding is not enormous. It’s size depends upon the number of years of holding and conviction.

The greater the conviction, the longer the holding and the lesser are the chances of the management consisting of fraudsters.

Your small entry quantum has ensured that over many, many years, stocks that end up getting accumulated majorly are the ones where conviction strengthens year upon year upon seeing multiple practices of good governance and shareholder-friendliness.

Scammers stop getting accumulated long ago. They are expunged on market highs.

After a decade or two, your portfolio is brimming with honest multibaggers.

Wave Buying upon Prolonged Corrections

Where there are markets, there are corrections.

At first, they cause us dismay.

Slowly, we get used to them.

Then, we start using them.

Next step is – exploiting them.

One can speak of exploiting if a correction persists, and one is long-term investing.

During a persisting correction, we purchase in waves.

How are we defining a wave?

Go through your long term portfolio and pick out those stocks that are offering margin of safety.

You convince yourself of their health once again. Still healthy? Go ahead.

You purchase them one by one, one per day, by putting one entry quantum into the market for each purchase.

There will be greed to buy more than one underlying in one day. Don’t give in. This will allow your buying power to persist alongside a persisting correction.

The size of your entry quantum needs to be small enough to sustain entries all year round, still leaving ample liquidity on the side. Your long-term strategy should not immobilise your financial and familial activity in any way. Thus, an optimally small enough entry quantum is vital.

You’ve gone through a wave.

Breathe.

Correction persisting?

Go through your long-term portfolio again.

Where does margin of safety still exist? Pick out stocks list.

Go through next wave.

Repeat.

Till when?

Till no margin of safety is offered, or if you feel that the buying limit with a stock is surpassed.

4-5 such waves can really ramp up your portfolio.

What happens if corrections continue over multiple years?

Take long breathers between sets of waves.

Keep doing due diligence. If you’re not convinced about a stock anymore, don’t include the concerned stock in the next round of wave-buying (you can exit such a stock completely upon a market high; wait patiently for such a high and then throw the stock out, if still unconvinced about it).

Yes, ultimately, markets will start to rise again. Margin of safety dries up. You stop buying.

Your portfolio will now start showing its health.

Why?

It’s been accumulated with conviction, at the right price.

Congratulations.

🙂