Tag Archives: #BlackSwan

Gamble Ramble

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In sixteen hundred something, …

…most of mankind believed swans…

…to be white.

People would use the metaphor ‘black swan’, to insinuate things or events that were considered to be …

…‘impossible’.

Cut to now.

Black swans exist.

In reality.

The bird, in Australia.

The disastrous event genre, amongst elsewhere, also in markets.

Events earlier considered ‘impossible’, now happening…

…regularly.

Big moves.

An index going circuit. Multiple times — has happened.

Stock doing 20% up or down is no great shakes.

10%+ moves are like bread and butter these days.

News gets factored in within minutes to an hour.

Which brings us to the elephant in the room.

Can one leave the trading screen?

If one has chosen to trade, that is.

Hmmm.

Screen all the time is something I don’t want at all.

Is it possible — to leave it, and go about care-freely with other work?

Leave to whom? Or, to what?

AI, for example?

Hmmmm.

Not too sure.

When moves are big, stop-losses get jumped. Happens all the time. Remember CHFUSD? Considered unbelievable at the time? Oil. Gold. Silver. Jane Street. Brexit. CoViD. List goes on.

What about overnight?

Overnight positions are most highly exposed to black-swan openings, period. That’s the risk overnight carries.

Then, why trade?

Exactly. If too much screen-time is a thing, forget intraday. If you want a sound sleep, forget overnight.

What do you do then?

I invest for the long-term. That’s my main. Distraction side-hustle is the trading window. Play-amounts. Long. Paper trading as of now till system becomes profitable. As of now, it’s not.

Not what?

Not profitable.

Worrying?

No.

Why?

Trading system is a distractor for me. It’s not about money. I want my attention to be away from mains.

Why?

Fear of doing too much there. Fiddling around one time too many.

What about trading systems that go short?

The idea of developing one is attractive.

So, then?

However, exposure to unlimited loss, full exposure to a black swan event should it happen, is a big discourager and demotivator.

Understood. Still, it’s the short systems that make money.

Correct. At the cost of max screen-time, tense nights, cortisol-laden days, and the whole negative spiral.

Point. So what does one do?

Have developed a ‘junior’.

What’s a ‘junior’?

A junior investment system, that lets candidates graduate to the senior system.

Oh, interesting. Selection. Survival of the fittest. Clever.

Thanks. Junior keeps me busy and distracted. Senior relaxes and doesn’t get rearranged unnecessarily. Decent balance. Linkage as in promotion ladder. Natural selection, as in that which doesn’t get promoted till a longish time-stop, is expunged.

Elegant. Slick. Wonderful. Why do you then need a trading system at all? Let it die out. No full-on screen-time. Relaxed nights.

Exactly. However, am still trying to find the right fit for the gambling instinct.

That which every human has? And needs to channel appropriately, lest it balloon?

Ya.

Matrix Diaries

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Hey.

I think…

…you’ve pretty much understood…

…that we’re buyers in this whole mess.

I’d like you to add one more word to your understanding.

We’re…

…fearless…

…buyers.

We were not always fearless.

The human being is born with fear built in as a protective emotion.

During the process of rewiring, we wired this emotion out.

How does one do that?

Before I delve into it, wish to reiterate the we.

Who’s the we here?

Everyone who gets taught forward in this space and from this space, and then goes on to implement successfully, that’s the we. Why do such a thing? Gives me a kick. What’s a good life? A collection of meaningful things that give one a kick, implemented repeatedly.

Now imagine a matrix.

We are in the matrix.

Outside the matrix are all things that cause us fear.

Inside the matrix we implement our strategy without fear.

We have built systems that have automatically thrown out of the matrix all things that cause us fear against acting in the markets.

First we created a safety net. An emergency fund. Perhaps two. Out went fear of existence.

Starting with a small networth, we plunged into the markets. Luckily, we tasted failure fast, and lost it all, broken down, emergency fund to fall back on, young, enough energy and will power to bounce back. Now we had a model of how not to do it. We knew where we didn’t want to land up, and understood somewhat how not to do it. The experience of a blow-up and the knowledge of how not to do it made more fear exit the matrix, as we itched to get back into the game.

Slowly we built a system. Incorporated models. Saw what worked. What didn’t work for us exited. Model developed a slight edge. Tasted some wins. Confidence started to grow. As it grew, more and more fear exited.

Then came replication. Would the model work again? It did. Would it work bigger? Scaled up a bit. Working. Till not working. Fine-tuned. Working again. Knew we had something now. Came a black swan and its aftermath. Model excelled. Realized we were anti-fragile. Whatever was left of fear was now outside the matrix. We were tready for all out implementation.

And that’s where we are functioning from in this crisis.

If you say might last a year, no fear, we silently implement. We’re liquid because the model creates liquidity in good times. Two years? Still no fear. Liquidity might run out after 18 to 20 months, probably, but that’s the whole goal, to be fully invested, as per a model in which one has high conviction. Three years you say? We say still no fear.

The biggest money is made by…

…sitting…

…and we didn’t say this first. Someone you look up to did.

We’ve learn’t how to sit. Sitting is an integral part of the model.

While we sit, we do many constructive things. Since we’re investors, while we sit, we invest heavily…

…in OURSELVES.

Do the math.

The Collapse of Mt Gox and its Meaning for You

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February 2014.

Mt Gox collapses.

It’s not a mountain.

Mountains don’t collapse.

The largest Bitcoin exchange in the world – gone.

What happened?

Hazy area.

If one reads through the company’s press releases, it seems they themselves are not sure. Or, they’re trying to cover up that they got hacked, big-time.

Company’s claiming a black-swan event. Software goes into a crazy loop. Transaction shows as failed. However, system releases Bitcoin. Do this over and over again. You’re down 750k Bitcoin. Half a billion dollars. Hmmmmmmmmmm. Not buying it.

It’s probably not an inside job. Trail would’ve been too hot.

They’ve actually and probably gotten hacked. Possibly in the earlier days. Perhaps they tried to cover it up for the longest time, till it was no longer possible. There came a time then, it would seem, to throw in the towel and declare bankruptcy, coupled with the release of an unbelievable explanation.

Do the math. Conjecture.

We are down to conjecture, after an abominable event like this, where retail investors along with handlers, dealers and the works get fried.

For heaven’s sake.

Makes you rethink Bitcoin majorly.

Diversification is a safe thing. However, not at the cost of converting your computer into a big red flag.

There are two kinds of computers in the world. Those with Bitcoin or its cousins, and those without.

Currently, those with are targets.

There’s no better system of storing Bitcoin.

Banks aren’t taking it up systematically.

Dollar lobby is too strong.

It’s not letting Bitcoin settle.

Who was behind the possible hack?

You tell me.

Why would anyone sacrifice one’s sleep?

No tension, please.

We don’t wish to lose sleep over the fact that our computer might get hacked in the night. Also, will the cousin’s ever sort themselves out?

If criminals could hack Mt Gox, what are the chances of one’s desktop surviving?

Yeah, where does that leave you?

Till Bitcoin gets accepted more systematically, and till mainstream banks start storing it for you in their cyber-lockers, I’m afraid this leaves you off the Bitcoin demand-list.

Yeah, safety first.