Tag Archives: #contrarian

Banana Trajectory

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Growth …

… is a non-linear entity.

Especially…

… high growth.

Amongst many things, …

… one point needs …

… pointing out.

Between periods of high growth…

… anything can happen.

The levels of what can happen are, amongst other correlations, directly proportionate to the number of similarities between an economy in question and the functioning of a proper banana republic.

Freedom of speech can be suppressed.

Parallel economies can thrive.

Extortion and blackmail can rule.

Genocide.

Landgrab.

Terrorism.

People buyouts.

Apathy.

Dysfunctionality.

And then there’s high growth again, perhaps soon, if the economy gets its act together despite its rulers, and perhaps accelerated, if the rulers come to their senses and return back to being peace, growth and democracy loving .

Without getting into what kind of a republic we live in, for lack of a better phrase, and with a very small use of one’s imagination, one could venture to suggest that our own path of growth could resemble that of a banana trajectory.

The banana in this title doesn’t have much to do with the curvature of the fruit.

Much rather, it’s about the economy to banana republic correlation.

Might I suggest that our economy’s banana behaviour is mostly mild. Then, rarely, it gets intense. Normal growth returns. Then comes high growth. Periods of very high growth are rare, but there too.

Overall I’m happy with my and in my republic.

Sometimes, its banana behaviour beats me up.

Yeah, every ten years or so, there’s a big hit.

No one likes getting hurt.

I do remember to stand up and continue fighting, …

… because it is in this very republic, that I can make my 15% p.a.c.

On the conservative side, that is. Perhaps I can make more.

I don’t get that in any other economy.

You see, occasional banana behaviour is good news for a long term contrarian.

Banananomics lead to blunders, and temporary downfalls, with all indices falling big.

Which is where we have the guts to buy, and big.

Why?

We know we are on a high growth trajectory with intermittent banana behaviour.

A very simple formula suggests itself.

Buy big during reactions to banana behaviour.

Take principle out after spurts of high growth.

Sit tight on underlying in profit, perhaps for life.

A high growth trajectory with intermittent banana behaviour will give you many such cycles in your lifetime.

One stands to make multiple times the ten yearly hits.

Upon recognising this recurring pattern, one can even fine-tune and enhance loss-attenuation.

🙂

This is Why Your Blockbuster Gain Story is going to Happen

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You’re learning to sit. 

You buy with margin of safety. 

You buy in small quanta,…

…and that’s why you’re always liquid,…

…to avail any opportunity that arises. 

Yeah, there’s nothing impeding your liquidity…

…because you’ve kept yourself virus-free, i.e. debt-free. 

You only buy quality…

…that’s going to be around for a long, long while,…

…because you don’t sell for a long, long while. 

You don’t listen to what the grapevine is saying…

…because of the conviction and strength of your own research and opinion.

Yes, you regularly go against the crowd. 

You either buy into debt-free-ness, or into managable debt that spurts growth. 

Your input into the market doesn’t affect your daily life, leaving you tension-free to address your non-market world and thrive in it,…

…and that is why,…

…for all the above reasons,…

…your blockbuster gain story is going to happen,…

…and what’s more,…

…you are also enjoying the ride leading up to it. 

Wealth-Generators often go Contrarian

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You knew that too, right? 

Sure. 

Going contrarian is a buzz-phrase. 

We hear it again and again…

… till we begin to start thinking… 

… that we know what it means. 

Well, try going contrarian. 

Yeah, try actually doing it. 

You’ll see what I mean. 

It’s real hard. 

Going against the crowd takes all the strength you might have… 

… and then some. 

Most humans aren’t able to go contrarian. 

Most humans aren’t wealthy. 

When there’s blood on the streets, there’s no telling how much more there will be. 

Under such conditions, the contrarian investor lets go of his or her hard-earned money into an investment, knowing perfectly well that the Street might even value the investment tomorrow at a huge discount to today’s price.

That’s ok too, says he or she.

Why?

Because homework’s been done.

Underlying is strong.

Debt-free.

Management is stellar.

Balance-sheet is robust.

Projections are paramount.

That the world is pricing the investment wrongly is a problem with its vision.

Underlying is not going under. With above credentials, this alone matters.

Times change. Vision of the majority changes. Investor makes a killing. Cashes out some, principal and what have you. Leaves lots of free-standing shares… forever… or till parameters change.

Wealth-generators repeat this behaviour-pattern many times in their lives.

They’re not afraid of going against the grain.

They know otherwise.

Also, the money they use has been freed up.

Its being out of action for a long time is not going to change their lives even a bit.

They will have the last laugh.

Wealth is the reward of going contrarian. 

What about Daddy Cool? 

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Boney M sang this blockbuster hit in the ’70s.

I’m sure you’ve heard it, because it’s still the rage. 

he’s crazy like a fool – what about daddy cool? 

Who’s Daddy Cool? 

You tell me. 

Is it you, in a cool cucumber moment, slow to respond to stimulus, devoid of anger, master of your situation in a kinda non-bossy, non-micro-managing (cool) way? 

And what of Mr. Hyde’s Dr. Jekyll nature? 

We’re talking about your “like a fool” moment.

Just for your information, winning behaviour is often termed foolish by the crowd. 

Contrarian investing is one such example. 

Successful derivative trading is another. 

To cap it, let’s not even talk about private equity in real-estate. 

Did someone mention high-yield structured-debt? 

There are many examples of “foolish” behaviour. 

These same examples earn very well. 

So… 

… how do we do it? 

We maintain our cool. 

We keep all basics going, as they are. 

With a small portion of our surplus, we take calculated risks, in a controlled environment. 

Sure, these risks will appear foolish to someone on the outside. 

However, our controlled environment has installed riders for our safety. 

A balance-sheet might be stressed, but not stressed enough for bankruptcy. 

A lock-in might be ultra-short. 

A stop-loss might be in place. 

Collateral might be up to 4x.

There might be a highly reputed Trustee in between. 

What have you.

Have your Daddy Cool fool-moments. 

Take some calculated risks with small portions of your surplus. 

These should give your portfolios an extra-boost. 

The Age of Shocks

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We are in it. 

Bang in the middle. 

There’s some shock almost everyday. 

Even Yellen’s words have shock effects. 

Had anyone even heard of Yellen a few years ago?

Natural disasters, terrorism, scams, frauds, upheaval…

…well, you have no choice…

…but to incorporate them into your market strategy. 

If you don’t, well, God bless you and God help you. 

So, where do we stand. 

Definitely towards value. 

Growth – hmmm, we’ll take growth after we take value, in a stock picked up for value. 

We’re not following any growth strategies. 

Let growth happen as a matter of course. 

We’re not entering something which is in the middle of growth. 

We’re entering it before its growth potential is apparent to everyone. 

Why?

Stocks, whose growth is apparent to everyone, are very susceptible indeed, should they show even one bad quarter. They can be cut down to half their size even if one ruddy quarter goes out of line. That’s the problem in the age of shocks. 

What about stocks with growth potential which are in the doldrums?

Well, bad quarters are the norm for them, temporarily. One more bad quarter is not going to make much of a difference. It will make a small but digestible difference. Nowhere near the effect the bad quarter will have on a growth stock. 

Yes, the way to go is contrarian. 

We’re going contrarian with our eyes open. 

We’re not picking the dogs of the Dow, or the rats of the Sensex.

We’re picking gems people are throwing into the dustbin. 

What’s this dustbin?

We’ve made this dustbin. 

In cyber-space. 

It scans what people throw away. 

It couples 4-7 algorithms, makes them into a mother-algorithm, and scans. 

Today, one doesn’t need to know how to programme to achieve this. 

One just puts the algorithms together on any leading equity website. 

One concocts one’s dustbin. 

One looks in the dustbin everyday. 

What have people thrown away?

Anything that looks valuable?

No?

Let’s move on. 

Yes?

Lovely. Lets take a closer look. Let’s take this stock that’s looking valuable, and let’s put it through the works. 

Let’s fully analyze the stock. 

We do our analysis. 

Takes us a day or two. 

It’s yes or no time. 

No?

Move on. 

Yes?

Look at the charts. Pick up accordingly, in the next day or two. 

Quantum?

Small. 

So on and so forth.