Monthly Archives: February 2025

Gaugers

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Hey.

We gauge…

…situations, …

…sentiment, …

…reactions, …

…anomalies, …

…hubris, greed, fear, depression, …

…and, amongst other things, also the tendency of the human being…

…to give advice.

Sometimes, we find ourselves giving advice too, randomly, unwarranted. We gauge that too.

Our effort focuses on identifying market pivots.

Why?

We act on pivots.

These are the most lucrative points in a market’s trajectory.

These are also very difficult to predict in advance.

However, because of our mental tuning resulting from constant gauging, we are somewhat in a position to recognize pivots when they have started to develop, or when they are just about to finish developing.

That’s the cut-off.

Meaning, that if action goes in any later than that, rewards lessen.

Once the whole world knows that a pivot is in play, price zooms or tanks from there rapidly. We want in or out before the zooming or tanking, respectively.

So, apart from technicals and fundamentals, comprehensive gauging allows for better thought synthesis and thus better market action.

Whilst gauging, we learn a lot about human beings and the psychology that drives our financial life.

Markets teach us so much, that they become a fulfilling profession.

Wishing you safe and happy wealth multiplication!

🙂

Fall Specialists

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Hey.

We come alive…

…during a fall.

Though we don’t panic, …

… we do feel a pang, here or there.

However, we have trained ourselves to…

…quickly normalize, …

… and then go about our business, …

… which is, …

… buying during a fall.

It hasn’t been easy.

During the first fall we experienced, we broke down.

You see, we were fully invested, and then that fall happened.

Now came two options.

Quit? Or learn to navigate?

Chose the latter. Learnt.

What did we learn?

We found ways to remain…

…liquid, calm, composed and poised.

Slowly, but surely, we turned into…

…fall specialists.

We argued with ourselves.

How many falls had this market seen in History?

Had they stopped its long-term growth?

In a growth environment like India’s?

The answers reiterated our stand.

The central idea that remained was to stand our ground and lock some great prices in, intensifying buying towards the bottom.

How would one recognize a bottom?

Technicals, pin-bars, big intraday swings, huge volumes, nihilist sentiment, depressing newsflow, one can sense these things if one is mentally there.

And that’s what fall specialists are doing, in the wake of disruption ruling international trade, difficult quarterly results, international fund-flight, regression to the mean, perpetuating newsflow, almost blood on the midcap street, actual blood on the smallcap alley, and what have you.

Yeah, we’re locking in great prices.

Remember to come back and read this piece when sentiment changes.

India is a growth environment, where lucrative prices have been hard to find since CoViD.

So, when these come, is it a wonder that fall specialists are lapping up the action?

Steady

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Markets are not, …

… but we are …

… steady.

Why?

Our plan is in place.

And, it’s acting out.

At such a time, when things are actually happening, should we just bail?

NO.

We had built up to this.

We had determined…

…to be liquid…

…at a time like this.

And now the time is happening.

We were mindful of not underestimating market-forces and how they influence the mind.

We knew we’d feel a sense of fear…

…but had taught ourselves to still act, by generating an environment of fearlessness.

And acting we are, fearlessly.

Funds have been going in, and will continue to go in throughout the fall, bit by bit.

This is our time.

When everyone is afraid, that’s when we play.

We are actualizing big profits by this action, because we are buying into margin of safety. Actualization will translate into real profits at a later stage. Sooner, than later.

You see, things take place very fast in the markets nowadays. Falls happen extremely quickly. Bear markets were capped at 15 to 18 months pre-CoVid. However, don’t you feel the speed of movement is much quicker nowadays?

So, currently, we are buying into margin of safety. Eventually we’ll pull some principal out and create cost-free holdings. Later, as levels pick up, we’ll be buying into momentum. Our entry quantum will increase with increasing levels, since entry-size is a function of portfolio-size for us. Also, the speed of translation into cost-free-ness will shoot up.

We will continue to create cost-free-ness through all cycles, sometimes slowly, sometimes faster.

Over time, our created cost-free-ness will become a sizeable legacy.