Risk vs Reward

Hey.

I am not ashamed…

…of being fully invested…

…in equity.

Yeah. That’s the status.

Invested. Fully. In equity.

Dangerous?

Sure.

So is driving.

Flying.

Cycling.

Living.

It’s about first digesting the dangers mentally, and then acting.

So, what are the dangers?

Loss.

Hmmm. Notional loss at best. So’s that of one’s house, when its value goes down in price.

Notional.

Since requirement is a very small fraction of corpus, it can be pulled from corpus, when it surfaces.

What will be pulled?

Chunk or the whole of a loser.

Loser’s liquidation will fund expenses.

Any accrued income will go into creating future winners.

Good money chases good outcomes.

Bad money finances expenses.

Nothing stays loose in the bank.

Fixed deposits are passé composé. Baby.

A). Our currency depreciates by the day, geo-politically.

B). Inflation eats into FDs daily, as sure as a shot.

C). Why be subject to this double whammy?

Is being down 50%, or 70%, or 90% in stocks — even the overhang of such a possibility — a better outcome, you ask.

Well, it can happen, I’ll give you that.

In fact, every stock quoted will be down 50%+ once every 5-7 years, on average.

With such scenario, how can I sleep at night, you ask.

It’s ok. I sleep well.

You see, I’ve not pickled the funds away blindly.

Quality companies with shareholder-friendly managements. Impeccable balance-sheets. Minimal debt. Value. Growth at reasonable price. Higher growth at representable price. Some punts, yes, with very high growth at unreasonable price, but that’s what one pays for very high growth. This will yield results. Over time. That’s why I sleep…

…well.

What’s the max I can lose?

100%.

Correct. For max loss to happen, planet needs to be going down. In that scenario, stocks won’t be our worry.

Reasonable number?

A 50-75% max notional loss is always on the cards, temporarily, with the world on tenterhooks all the time.

Temporarily is the key word.

Growth markets swallow hiccups–fast. And, I’m invested 100% in a growth market. With hiccups. (Where are there no hiccups?) Soon to be a high-growth market. Watch.

What’s the max profit I can make, let’s try and answer that.

Do we even have a number here?

I don’t.

The Thing with Sugar and Dairy

It’s common knowledge now. 

Cancer cells love sugar and dairy. 

In fact, they love them so much, that they grow ten (?) times faster in their presence. 

Just act as if the question mark isn’t there. 

I’ve put it there because I’m not sure whether the number should be eleven, or nine, or what have you. 

However, the numbers are deadly. 

Shocker, right?

Spent my childhood gobbling sugar and gulping dairy. Didn’t know any better. 

Now, only dairy going in (hopefully) is the good dairy. Yoghurt. 

Only sugar in diet is the good sugar. Honey. 

At least, that’s the goal. 

What makes these two “good”?

There’s something bio in them. 

Yoghurt’s got bacteria. They’re the good bacteria. They cleanse one’s system. Cancer cells don’t like them, because probiotic bacteria probably break them down. 

Honey’s got the saliva of bees, containing vital enzymes. These catalyse various biochemical and metabolic processes. Cancer cells don’t like them either. They like the sweetness of honey, but not these enzymes. So, honey’s a tad less dangerous.

The bio-portion saves the day. It’s for a good cause. It’s purpose is friendly, and positive. 

Cut to equity. 

Where does one look for terminal disease?

In balance-sheets and annual reports. 

Debt. 

Promoter ego.

Fraud. Scam. Manipulation. 

Creative accounting.

These are some of the things that can cause terminal disease. 

All of them might exist, at some level, in any given balance-sheet and / or annual report. 

What we need to gauge in our minds are the levels. 

Is any level alarming enough to cause terminal disease, or for that matter just disease?

Bearable debt leading to growth is even a good thing. It’s like a tonic. Unbearable debt leads to terminal disease. We need to stay away from a stock with unbearable debt on its balance-sheet.

Nothing functions without ego. I am. Therefore I do. However, an overbearing and overambitious ego leads to disastrous decisions that can cause terminal disease. We need to stay away from companies whose promoters have overbearing, self-promoting and overambitious egos. Such promoters don’t even realize when they’re functioning in self-destruct mode. Am not going to take any names here, but you get the gist. 

Frauds, scams and manipulations come under the category of “sheer disease that’s already terminal or just one step away from going terminal”. Upon finding them, needless to say, avoid the stock.  

Accounting. Sure, everyone’s busy getting creative here. We need to separate positive accounting from its negative counterpart. 

Accounting that leads to fund-availability at the time of need and results in value-creation for the shareholder is to be welcomed. This kind of accounting does not cause terminal disease. It creates a detour that strengthens the company overall in the long run. 

Such accounting whose sole purpose is to deceive the shareholder and benefit the promoter is a very big red flag. This kind of accounting leads to terminal disease.

While zeroing in on a quality stock, you’re simultaneously ensuring longevity-enhancing conditions. 

In the process, you’re automatically ensuring that your portfolio accumulates one gem after another. 

Wishing for you happy and successful investing. 

🙂