Category Archives: System

System Addict

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System. 

Make. 

Now. 

Life in the markets requires a plan.

No plan…no life…in the markets. 

Many don’t know this. 

Some are finding out…the hard way. 

Others are looking for free lunches…and not finding any. 

Few…have found out. 

They’re perfecting their plan…chiseling away. 

When they have something substantial…it’s called a system. 

Have system…will move. 

It’s as simple as that. 

That’s another master-word. 

What?

Simple. 

The most powerful systems in the world…are simple. 

They consist of a few basic elements, woven into a mother element. 

They have an on-off switch which even a donkey can operate. 

But that’s about it. The donkey can operate the on-off switch. Only the maker can operate his or her system properly.

Why?

Because the maker knows the nitty-gritty. 

Nitty-grittiness shows itself while making. 

No one else knows it. 

Only you do, as a system-maker. 

Also, no one else needs to be bothered about your system, because your system only applies to you, and to no one else. Unfortunately, it ain’t so in real life. Many don’t want the hard work involved in developing a system. They just want the system. That’s dangerous. 

Why?

You see, those who have a system falling into their lap, well, they don’t know its pitfalls. They can’t know. They haven’t had that alone time, when the system showed its limitations. That’s why, they’re in for a big surprise if things get ugly. They risk losing everything. 

Don’t bother about anyone else’s system. 

Develop your own. Know how to work it. Know when to work it. Know when to stop. Know when to find remedies. Know when to pull the plug and develop a new system. 

This game is about you. Not about the markets. Not about the money. Not about anyone else. Not about anything else. 

It’s about you. 

Realise that. Now. Please.

The Age of Shocks

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We are in it. 

Bang in the middle. 

There’s some shock almost everyday. 

Even Yellen’s words have shock effects. 

Had anyone even heard of Yellen a few years ago?

Natural disasters, terrorism, scams, frauds, upheaval…

…well, you have no choice…

…but to incorporate them into your market strategy. 

If you don’t, well, God bless you and God help you. 

So, where do we stand. 

Definitely towards value. 

Growth – hmmm, we’ll take growth after we take value, in a stock picked up for value. 

We’re not following any growth strategies. 

Let growth happen as a matter of course. 

We’re not entering something which is in the middle of growth. 

We’re entering it before its growth potential is apparent to everyone. 

Why?

Stocks, whose growth is apparent to everyone, are very susceptible indeed, should they show even one bad quarter. They can be cut down to half their size even if one ruddy quarter goes out of line. That’s the problem in the age of shocks. 

What about stocks with growth potential which are in the doldrums?

Well, bad quarters are the norm for them, temporarily. One more bad quarter is not going to make much of a difference. It will make a small but digestible difference. Nowhere near the effect the bad quarter will have on a growth stock. 

Yes, the way to go is contrarian. 

We’re going contrarian with our eyes open. 

We’re not picking the dogs of the Dow, or the rats of the Sensex.

We’re picking gems people are throwing into the dustbin. 

What’s this dustbin?

We’ve made this dustbin. 

In cyber-space. 

It scans what people throw away. 

It couples 4-7 algorithms, makes them into a mother-algorithm, and scans. 

Today, one doesn’t need to know how to programme to achieve this. 

One just puts the algorithms together on any leading equity website. 

One concocts one’s dustbin. 

One looks in the dustbin everyday. 

What have people thrown away?

Anything that looks valuable?

No?

Let’s move on. 

Yes?

Lovely. Lets take a closer look. Let’s take this stock that’s looking valuable, and let’s put it through the works. 

Let’s fully analyze the stock. 

We do our analysis. 

Takes us a day or two. 

It’s yes or no time. 

No?

Move on. 

Yes?

Look at the charts. Pick up accordingly, in the next day or two. 

Quantum?

Small. 

So on and so forth. 

 

Patience and Nerves Anyone?

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As someone I look up to put it recently – “It’s a game of patience and nerves!”

What is?

The stock-market. 

For whom?

The long-term investor. 

Do you have any?

What?

Patience, or nerves, or both?

You do?

Well, then you’ll do well in the markets, over the long-term. 

We look for complication. Meanwhile, we forget the basics. 

These are basics. 

If you’re not patient, you’ll for example jump into a stock at the wrong time, or you’ll jump out of it too early, or what have you. 

If you don’t have patience, well, develop it. 

If you can’t, do something else instead. Trade. Don’t long-term-invest then. 

If you cannot develop patience, you are not cut out to be a long-term holder. 

One method to cause the tree of patience to grow in you is to create the correct environment. 

Just don’t do anything that will make you jump. 

Invest your sur-sur-plus, money that is then pickled away, money that you won’t miss, yearn for or require over the very long-term. 

Go in with margin of safety. 

Stay in a stock you’ve singled out and entered until there’s a glaring reason to exit. Try to exit upon a high. This is the market. Highs are its nature. So are lows. That means that highs come. Wait for them to come, to exit from anything you need to exit from. 

Nervers, well, they come into play if you’ve not invested with margin of safety. 

I do remember two instances though, where everyone’s nerves were tested. October 2008, and March 2009. At these times, stocks sold for a song. Good ones and bad ones alike. Fear did the rounds, extreme fear. That’s what fear does. It creates once-in-a-lifetime opportunities. Take them. Maintain a clear head. Your nerves of steel will do that for you. Create an environment for your nerves to become strong. Or, perhaps expressed another way, create an environment where any weakness in your nerves is not required to show itself, and gets subdued into extinction. 

How?

Again, just go in with your sur-sur-plus. You’re not going to miss this money even if the sky is falling upon your head. And you’ve gone in with margin of safety. Your nerves will stay intact. 

Ensure your basics. Allow them to shine. 

The rest will take care of itself. 

Good investing. 🙂

Do You Know What the Most Underrated Activity is?

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C’mon, try guessing at least… 🙂

Yeah…

… doing nothing is the answer, in my opinion. 

We want to move. Be active. Do this. Do that. We’re a “doodat” society. 

For us, activity has become synonymous with achievement. 

How wrong is that?

Completely. 

One can be active…

…and be achieving zilch. Nix. Nadda.

The moment we realize this, the value of doing nothing dawns upon us. 

What are we achieving by doing nothing?

A lot. 

Believe me. 

A lot a lot a lot. 

For starters, we are not taxing our eyes with media. That’s one of the greatest side-effects of doing nothing. Our eyes take a hit in today’s media-packed world. Doing nothing gives them a very valuable break. 

Furthermore, while doing nothing, we are perhaps watching our thoughts and not reacting to them. Or, we are listening to our breathing pattern. These two activities fall under the category of “meditation while doing nothing”. 

So now, doing nothing is a form of meditation…wow! Already we are moving in higher circles. 

While doing nothing, we are refraining from most or all activities, and these include all negative activities, so we’ve got our Karma-usage pretty much on hold. That’s already very big. 

Meanwhile, our thoughts drain. We are getting empty. Positive energy flows in to fill the vacuum. We are getting healthy by doing nothing, and are filling ourselves up with goodness by default. 

Our focus turns to our breath. Wow, we breathe. We are a wonder. There’s metabolism happening. We realise that our existence is already something big. All this while doing nothing. 

We rest. Our senses get a break. Our heart needs to beat less. Poor heart, it never gets a full break, until the very end. In the interim, it has to make do with beating less per unit time. It is grateful for such small mercies. 

Resting makes us gear up for forthcoming activity. Our bodies and minds refresh themselves for new endeavours…by doing nothing. 

Try it out. 

Do nothing. 

Perhaps it was lacking in your repertoire. 

It won’t be lacking now. 

Use it like a secret weapon!

The Tipping Point

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What is it about tips?

Why do they have that lure? That magnetic effect? That greed-invoking element? That goosebumps-causing energy?

Tips thrive in any market. 

They are given at the drop of a hat. 

The giver feels he or she is doing a favour. The receiver feels obliged. 

What has led to the giver feeling complaecent that he or she has something one his or her hands?

The giver was a receiver, a very short time ago. 

He or she got sucked …

… into the story. 

The story is tempting. 

It builds upon many half-truths and binds them together in such a presentable manner, that one’s defences, if any, are just maimed. 

In comes the tip. 

Off goes the mind, counting the unmade bucks.

In goes the money. 

Mostly, it doesn’t materialize. 

Why?

Tips do the rounds as short-cuts in people’s half-baked minds. 

A short-cut to wealth. 

The 99% here don’t want to do the spade work. They don’t want to get their hands dirty. They want spectacular returns, though, and they want them now. 

That’s the short-circuit. 

Investing is about doing lots of research. You dig. And then some more. It’s about patience. You wait. And then some more. It’s about having a sorted mind, and then going in. It’s a full-time occupation, unless you streamline it so well, that it then goes hand in hand with your other daily activities, and drops into the background like a mantra that keeps resonating with your breath. 

Does one become a brain-surgeon in a few hours?

Do you ask the brain-surgeon to teach you brain surgery in a day?

NO. 

It takes time, study, effort, will-power, finances, mindset, etc. etc. to become a brain-surgeon. 

It takes a lot of similar things to become a successful investor. 

You make yourself into one. 

It’s your effort. 

You don’t become one following tips.

People ask for tips. Daily. It’s a disease. I’m scarcely able to deal with it. I just evade. 

Folks, those who ask for tips are expecting to be made a brain-surgeon in one day. Not happening. It’s a short-circuited way of thinking. Don’t ask for tips. Invest on your own. Do the study. Invest the time and effort. Make mistakes. Become fully baked.

Go for it. 

The whole nine yards. 

Yeah, the whole hog. 

Multitaskers and OnebyOners

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Yeah, I made up that word…

…why not?

Who makes the rules?

Do you listen to all rules?

Breaking some rules is harmless…

… and those are the ones I love to break!

We live in the fast-track. 

Is there a place for slowdy-lumps?

Well, no, and yes. Or, yes, and no. 

Are you a fan of multi-tasking?

I’m not, by the way. Have to have to, sometimes. Don’t like it. 

Why?

I don’t like doing anything in a half-baked fashion. I’m sure that on some level, you don’t either. Either in it for the whole hog, or count you out, right?

Yeah. Or so thought I. 

World moves. It passes you by. If you don’t multi-task. Juggle. Use whatever word you wish to.

Is it healthy? 

No. 

Multi-tasking leads to confusion in the mind-body continuum. Feelings of enjoyment and satisfaction are muddled and befuddled at best. 

Is that the quality of life you want?

No. 

I want clear-cut stuff. 

Clear-cut defined effort. Clear-cut defined satisfaction and enjoyment. 

I’m a onebyoner. I get the above kind of satisfaction and enjoyment. It is wholesome. Quality of life enhancing. 

Am I old-fashioned?

Don’t care. 

Why?

Because quality of life is more important to me than looking stupid for a bit. 

Try being a onebyoner for a while. Note the difference in the flow of life. You get to stop between completed tasks. Breathe. Take a break. Do something else. Move on to the next task. One step at a time. Brick by brick. 

Life is more enjoyable. 

Try it. 

Nothing Uncool About Solitude

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Solitude…

… happens.

Sometimes, we’re in company, and sometimes we’re alone.

Being alone is ok.

One thinks.

One evolves.

There’s introspection.

Solutions dawn.

Before greatness…

… comes solitude.

In company, you grow relative to another.

In solitude, you grow relative to yourself.

Both kinds of growth are necessary. In other words, growth that occurs whilst being by yourself is also necessary.

Cut to the markets.

In the markets, one is responsible for oneself.

Decisions are required. Sometimes big ones. Who does one rely on?

On oneself.

How?

One has learnt to.

During tenures of solitude.

Walking on the Moon?

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giant steps are what you take
walking on the moon
i hope my legs don’t break
walking on the moon

Don’t know how old this song is.

There was the version from Sting, or perhaps The Police.

Heard another jazz version of the song on internet radio the other day.

Got me thinking.

We all do. Walk on the Moon, that is.

The Moon stands for something undiscovered.

Each human is unique.

Our next moments are undiscovered, yet.

We live them in our own way.

Yeah, we walk on the Moon, each day, every new moment.

Even in uncharted territory, one wants a smooth walk, doesn’t one?

There are three steps that ensure this.

1). Proper due diligence.

2). Smelling liability from a distance.

3). Walking the other way, away from liability.

Even a donkey understands what’s written above.

Enjoy your walk, on your Moon, on your own personal journey.

The lyricist has penned it aptly. He or she knows about giant steps, so due diligence has been done. He or she hopes that his or her “legs don’t break”,  so he or she is alert that liability could be lurking.

Yeah, above three steps, people.

Let It Come To You

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Don’t run after the investment.

Let it come to you.

Let it breathe down your neck.

You’re not hungry for it…

…but, if it’s that good…

… you might take it.

Let it reveal its hidden goodness.

Let it ignite your curiosity to look for even more than basic goodness in the investment.

Play a passive-then-active role.

Some call this the sweet spot.

I call it the sweetest spot…

… which you really want to be in, in the world of investing.

Yeah, don’t be in a hurry.

Hurry spoils the curry.

Take your time, to the extent that…

… take time out of the equation.

Give your money the best possible chance…

… to make loads more.

Did You Hear About the Last Mile?

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Yawn.

So you did, huh?

In investing?

No?

Yeah, I just thought about it.

Sharing it with you.

Churning, churning, churning…

… inside.

As you do your due diligence, information churns inside of you.

What is it that says yes, I’m investing?

Where does that go-ahead moment happen?

In the last mile.

Inside of you.

This is not to take away anything from your due diligence.

DD is central.

Very important.

However, last mile is important too.

One needs to respect it.

First, one needs to know about it.

Knowing about it will stop you from pushing an investment.

Don’t push… …in the markets.

Just be.

Take the shape of the container. Your container is your system.

Wait for your last mile to respond. Learn to understand its style of expression.

It’s a feeling…

… of well-being, …

… or something suffocating, nausea-like.

Embrace the former. Dump what’s causing the latter.

It’s as simple as that.

The most meaningful things in life are…

… exactly…

… SIMPLE.

Steps are the New Currency

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Walking walking walking…

… steps.

We’re logging them.

We’re thinking more about them than dollars, pounds, euros or rupees.

How many steps’ve you done today?

And who’s we?

We’s a collective. People who’ve gotten financial basics sorted, but perhaps not health basics. However these people have realized that. Smart.

Why smart?

Simple.

To enjoy one’s financial basics, one’s health basics need to be in place.

Place health before wealth, and you enjoy your wealth.

No health, but wealth, well, then you don’t enjoy your wealth.

We’re also in it for quality of life, right?

Therefore, yeah, treat steps as a very valid currency that gives you the ticket to enjoy other physical currencies and their benefits.

Logged 10k for the day yet? Or 15k?

Yeah? Super.

No? Why not? What are you waiting for? Step up, buddy!

The One Thing You Can Only Find Out About Due Diligence

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Working hard and delving deep leads to…

… exhaustion.

I wish to call this positive exhaustion.

It’s serving a purpose.

You may wish to rest.

Follow your instinct.

Rest.

Nature has stopped you from working beyond a point.

Work beyond that point could be counter-productive. That’s what your system feels from within. Listen to it.

How long are you going to stay away?

As long as your system baulks at pending due-diligence.

When do you get back?

When your system looks forward to pending due-diligence once again.

This way, the quality of work upon your return will be A+.

That will lead to high-quality investment.

How Will I Know?

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What?

How will I know what?

Well, what do you think?

How will I know if I’m on the right track…? !!

I’m sure you have asked this question…many times. 

If not, you need to.

Why?

You’ve realised that you’re your most reliable source.

You know you.

Therefore, you need to ask this question… to yourself.

This is the marketplace, not some low-stakes video-game parlour.

Lives and futures hang on your decisions.

Make these the right decisions.

How will you know you are on the right track?

It’s quite simple, really. 

Once you’ve heard the answer, you’ll probably go in denial. 

You’ll probably say, naehhhh, this can’t be it.

Believe me please, it is. What’s totally simple need not be worthless. In fact, the best ideas in the world are…simple. 

You’ll know. 

You’ll feel right. 

There’ll be a sense of satisfaction. You’ll feel comfortable. 

Your mind will be sorted. It will make the body feel at ease with an endorphin burst. 

That’s how you’ll know. 

It’s that simple. 

Take the wrong decision, and the opposite things will be happening. Try it out. Trust your reflexes. 

Learn to rely on yourself. 

This is the marketplace we’re talking about…

…where…

…you’re on your own. 

Not in the Mood?

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Right, good.

You don’t have to be. And good that you’ve recognized it.

Mood sets the tone for success… or failure.

For example, just now, I’m not in the mood to conduct due-diligence. There’s one company which has sparked my interest, a few days ago. Work needs to be done, to decide whether I’m investing or am out. Quality of work needs to be of the highest order. Otherwise I might take a wrong decision, meaning that I might invest in a dud, or might reject a multibagger. And what happens? I’m not in the mood to conduct any kind of due diligence. For whatever reason. What’s to be done?

Nothing.

I just don’t conduct it.

Period.

What if the opportunity goes away?

So be it. Another will come along. When? Whenever. World is full of opportunities.

Why am I so pricy about my behaviour?

Well why not? It’s called being in the sweet spot. You call all the shots. Including working when in the right frame of mind. Such a condition enhances the probability of success.

When will I be conducting the due due-diligence?

When would that be?

Whenever it happens naturally, without artificial pressure.

Am I just born lucky, to be in a position to work when I want?

Well, I’ve definitely had my share of great luck, and continue to have it, by the grace of Nature. On the other hand, and to put things in perspective, I also have, over the last twelve years, worked hard to create a situation for myself where I only invest when I wish to. There’s no pressure on me to invest. My bread and butter isn’t dependent on it. I call it being in the sweet spot.

Work towards your sweet spot.

Now.

There’s no God, is there?

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Or is it just us?

We’re both good and bad, us humans.

Sometimes we strive for the highest. At other times, we stoop to the lowest.

Yeah, it’s just us.

Our best deeds appear Godly to someone in need. Someone or the other plays God to someone or the other in a spot, every now and then.

And that’s amazing. Of course an act like that sure helps that someone in need, but what does an act like that do for the someone who’s doing it?

Vacuum.

Are you familiar with the principle of vacuum?

Vacuum governs flow.

High-pressure flows towards low-pressure. Vacuum is as low-pressure as it gets.

What kind of flow does an act of charity attract?

Goodness.

By doing good, you attract more goodness towards you.

Goodness can even take the form of wealth.

Boost your wealth.

Be good.

Commit copious acts of goodness.

Play God to millions.

Let there be no need for an actual God.

I don’t like saying it, but that’s the best cushioning / protection you can give to your portfolio.

Truth is truth.

Benevolent principles need to be propagated.

I don’t care about how awkward it looks.

I write because I care.

Deciding to Invest?

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An investment opportunity comes along.

How do you react?

This is how I react.

First up, funds. Do I have clear funds to invest? No? Forget it, obviously.

Funds – maybe? Meaning, if I do some wangling around, fund demand could be met? Ok, move on to next step before taking a decision on the wangling.

Funds – clear – yes? Next step by default, but I’m telling myself that I’m not letting these hard-earned funds go just like that. The opportunity will need to clear my scrutiny. Period.

Then – time? Do I have 15 clear days to conduct deep due diligence.

No? Forget it. I may be travelling. Some event might occupy my time and mind. No time – no investment. Period.

Yes? Ok. Next step.

Energy? Due diligence is exhausting. I need energy reserves. My body and mind tell me. If they’re up to it, I’ll know. If not, the sheer idea of due diligence at that point will make me want to puke. Such is the power of mind and body to convey a message. No energy means improper due diligence. Not happening. No investment.

Yes for energy? Body is alive. Mind is alert. Moving to next step.

Due diligence. Digging deep buddy. I’m going to get under their skin. I’ll pick out their lie. I’m going places they won’t imagine I could get to. The internet is my oyster. We’ve never had it so good wrt information flow and disclosure. I start digging, and get so engrossed, that I forget about time.

Due diligence scrutiny check block oblique spoiler alert oblique deal-breaker? Could be an uncovered lie. Recently I discovered 100% pledging in a company, with everything else ok. Could be any dirt or its tracks. No investment.

Due diligence cleared. Go back to funds – maybe. Bring out mental weighing scale. Is the investment so worth it that I’ll wangle fund demand?

No? No investment.

Yes? Next step.

Think clearly. Very hard earned funds are about to go away for a while. What does the sum total of my everything tell me?

No? For whatever reason. I don’t question my sum total. No investment.

Yes?

Investment.

Happy investing! 🙂

Making it Count

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You’re playing a big one.

What’s foremost?

Make it count. For heaven’s sake.

Why?

Big plays don’t come too often. When they do, you have to catch them. You need to have energy left, to play. Then you just go all the way. Till the play plays itself out.

Life is an accumulation of knicks and knacks.

At first, you don’t know what you’re good for.

When you do know it, you start out as a net-net loser in whatever you’re good for, because every rookie needs to pay tuition fees. These are the costs of your mistakes.

Then you start getting the hang of something you’re naturally good at. Tricks of the trade – you learn them. You succeed in making your activity applicable, perhaps even financially viable.

Next step is to scale up.

You need to make your successful model count. Period.

Tired? Want to do other things? Need to borrow? Too big a pain? Time-issues? Overdose? Bureaucracy?

Whatever.

Don’t lessen the flow. Hold on. Ask the Universe for reserves. See the play through.

One life can mean just a few big plays.

When you’ve latched onto one, and have set it up so beautifully, now’s the time make it count.

Best of luck!

🙂

Making Sense of Losing Battles

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Winning gets boring after a while.

Unbelievable, but true.

However, losing continues to pinch, time after time.

That’s the key difference between winning and losing.

Life’s bipolar game is skewed more towards the pinch of continuous loss than towards the continued pleasure of winning.

Get used to losing… but, lose small.

Win big. Don’t nip a small win in the bud and thus stop it from becoming a big win.

Sometimes, you identify losing battles.

These are areas where you’re just not able to win.

What do you do with a losing battle?

Walk away. One option. Weigh the odds. If your walking away impacts no one, and simultaneously betters your existence, yeah, this is a very valid option. For example, one walks away from a losing trade.

Fight. Second option. You’re not beyond your stop, whether in a trade or in life. You fight, to save the battle, and perhaps to win.

Learn. Third option. You’re not able to get away from the losing battle, because your exit impacts something or someone. You hang on. No choice. Your pain teaches you big things. You learn. Sometimes, such a big losing battle suddenly turns into a glorious win. That’s because all the lessons from the scenario have been learnt. Enjoy, you deserve it.

Devolution. Not an option. Don’t allow your losing battle to devolve you into a demon.

Incorporation. Very valid option. Incorporate the learnt lessons from your losing battles into winning strategies for other battles in life.

Cheers.

☺

Core-System Discovery

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You look.

Perhaps without success.

You look again.

And again.

So on and forth.

Till you find.

What?

An addition to your core-system.

What’s a core-system?

The better question here would be – what’s your core-system?

Now, fortunately or unfortunately, that’s for you to find.

In a nutshell, your core-system is that something which makes you tick. It has as many facets as you wish it to have. Each facet needs to be discovered, attached, fine-tuned, tried, tested and finally welcomed to or rejected from your core-system.

Facets are not limited to your professional life. Your core-system makes you tick on an all-round basis.

For example, brewing and savouring that perfect cup of tea could be an important facet. Finding, fine-tuning and enjoying your favorite media-source could be another. Blogging could be one. Sport. Hobbies. Family time. People skills. Yeah, now we’re getting professional. You can fill in your professional blanks.

Discovery costs. Time, effort, funds, nerve, sweat. It’s worth it many times over when you find a fit. Please believe me.

Some things don’t fit. You think you want them badly, but the harder you try, the more they refuse to fit. After trying your hardest, you need to conserve your life-force to look for another fit. What didn’t fit didn’t fit for a reason. It’s not mandatory for Nature to reveal that reason to you. Move on.

Keep looking for fits. Eventually, you’ll have a robust core-system, which will make you tick exceptionally.

Happy Findings!

🙂

The Valuation Game

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Value is a magic word. 

Ears stand up. 

Where is value?

Big, big question. 

Medium term investors look for growth. 

Long-termers invariably look for value. 

How do you value a stock?

There are many ways to do that. 

Here, we are just going to talk about basics today.

For example, price divided by earnings allows us to compare Company A to Company B, irrespective of their pricing.

Why isn’t the price enough for such a comparison?

Meaning, why can’t you just compare the price of an Infosys to that of a Geometric and conclude whatever you have to conclude?

Nope. 

That would be like comparing an apple with an orange. 

Reason is, that the number of shares outstanding for each company are different. Thus, the value of anything per share is gotten by dividing the grand total of this anything-entity by the number of outstanding shares that the company has issued. For example, one talks of earnings per share in the markets. One divides the total earnings of a company by the total number of outstanding shares to arrive at earnings per share, or EPS. 

Now, we get investor perception and discovery into the game. How does the public perceive the prospects of the company? How high or low do they bid it? How much have they discovered it? Or not discovered it? This information is contained in the price. 

So, we take all this information contained in the price, and divide it by the earnings per share, and we arrive at the price to earnings ratio, or P/E, or just PE. 

Yeah, we now have a scale to judge the value of stocks. 

Is this scale flawed?

Yeah. 

A stock with a high PE could have massive discovery and investor confidence behind it, or, it could just have very low earnings. When the denominator of a fraction is low, the value of the fraction is “high”. You have to use your common-sense and see what is applying. 

A stock with a low PE could have low price, high earnings, or both. It could have a high price and high earnings.  The low PE could also just be a result of lack of discovery, reflected in a low price despite healthy earnings. Or, the low PE could be because of a low price due to rejection. What is applying? That’s for you to know. 

At best, the PE is ambiguous. Your senses have to be sharp. You have to dig deeper to gauge value. The PE alone is not enough. 

Now let’s add a technical consideration. One sees strong fundamental value in a company, let’s say. For whatever reason. How does one gauge discovery, rejection or what have you in one snapshot? Look at the 5-year chart of the stock, for heaven’s sake. 

You’ll see rejection, if it is there. You’ll understand when it is not rejection, because rejection goes with sell-offs. Lack of discovery means low volumes and less pumping up of the price despite strong fundamentals. You’ll see buying pressure in the chart. That’s smart money making the inroads. Selling pressure means rejection. You’ll be able to gauge all this from the chart. 

Here are some avenues to look for value :

 

– price divided by earnings per share,

– price divided by book-value per share,

– price divided by cash-flow per share,

– price divided by dividend-yield per share,

– in today’s world, accomplishment along with low-debt is a high-value commodity, so look for a low debt to equity ratio,

– look for high return on equity coupled with low debt – one wants a company that performs well without needing to borrow, that’s high value,

– absence of red-flags are high value, so you’re looking for the absence of factors like pledging by the promoters, creative accounting, flambuoyance, 

– you are looking for value in the 5-year chart, by gauging the chart-structure for lack of discovery in the face of strong fundamentals. 

 

We can go on, but then we won’t remain basic any more. Basically, look for margin of safety in any form. 

Yeah, you don’t buy a stock just like that for the long-term. There’s lots that goes with your purchase. Ample and diligent research is one thing. 

Patience to see the chart correct so that you have your proper valuations is another. 

Here’s wishing you both!

🙂