Tag Archives: #FullyInvested

Who’s Decoupling?

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We are.

No country.

No market.

No conglomerate.

No anything.

We, as retail investors, are choosing to decouple.

Meaning?

Crash chorus?

Yeah, so?

Louder?

Yes.

Warren Buffett warning?

Yes.

Crash Crash Crash everywhere to be heard?

Yes.

Still we implement our implementables.

Meaning, unperturbed?

Yes.

Why? I mean how? What are you thinking?

Crashes come, crashes go. Look at our market’s graph since inception. Note anything?

Steady growth, decade upon decade. I can see Asian, Dotcom, Housing, CoViD, what have you. Rise, despite. But they say this one’s going to be mother of all.

Mother of this, father of that. Doesn’t affect our strategy.

How?

First up, remember, that speeds are now super. Everything’s happening…

…FAST.

So, if there’s going to be a -90, it’s going to happen…how?

Fast.

Right.

We’ll, as in our own growth market, will V-shape recover…how?

Fast.

Does it affect a multi-decade strategy?

No.

Correct. We proceed with our stuff, irrespective.

And what’s the stuff?

Uno : get fully invested.

Due : Weed upon expense.

Weed weed weed. That’s our chorus. Not crash crash crash.

Tre : Pluck flowers if no weed, upon expense.

Quattro : Groom our superflowers.

Period.

Don’t care about crash, panic, fear, or any such hallucination. We do our job, enjoy our life, and move on to the next challenge, when this one’s on auto.

And that would be…

…Yes?

That would be decoupling, right?

Decoupling is a state of being. You feel it. If you can feel it, you are decoupled.

How does one know?

When the chorus doesn’t affect you, and you go about your stuff joyfully.

It’s as simple as that.

Distraction

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Fooling the people…

…all the time?

For how long?

What’s the historical precedent?

Did anyone get away with such behaviour…

…forever?

No.

No one…

…ever…

…has gotten a free pass…

…to indulge in reckless actions, …

…insulting the entire world’s intelligence, …

…obstructing the earning power of all but self, …

…the king with no clothes, …

…with obnoxiousness at its peak…

… ad nauseam.

Since nothing seems to be happening, as in there seems to be no change in the situation, and things keep taking a turn for the worse after showing some signs of healing, what’s the recourse?

We bide our time.

Time turns the table.

We hone our skills.

Silently implementing our long-term work, we dabble with the new kid on the block, AI, to create new systems. We work at seamlessness. Connectivity. Automation. We’re working at 25x. Thanks to AI. From a complete skeptic, these last seven weeks have turned my tide towards areas which were but a dream.

There was a pinpointed trading system I wished to implement. I’ve spent my years learning many skills, but not the languages and infrastructures to create such trading systems. Not required now. I don’t need to know anything about programming languages and such infrastructures. Creation is now about dialogue. A sincere dialogue with Claude, over seven weeks, has resulted in a multi-layered, automated trading system, semi-seamless, in that order yes or no is still in the hands of my human self. I can make the system completely seamless, have kept it semi out of sheer choice, just saying. Even things like app to app connectivity are completely handheld by the AI, till successful completion and implementation.

System will not go live till required success rate is hit consistently. Tracking and understanding performance has now become a breeze. Fine-tuning, almost daily, is a religion. All thanks to the AI. One must give credit where it’s due.

Now, why, for a long-term investor like me, does the question even arise?

Why even create a trading system?

Income?

That’s one reason. Main reason for me?

No.

So, if income is not the main reason, then what?

Distraction.

Distraction?

Yes. I wish to take my attention away from my long-term portfolio. Perhaps open this once a month, on a weekend. Operate through GTTs only. No interaction at all during market hours. Forget. Switch off. Out.

Why?

No focus means no action. That’s the space where we want to be. We will act once a month, and that should be good enough. Give the long-term a chance to become very long-term.

So you’re saying that your attention remains on the video game action.

Yeah. Working life is punctuated by the video game action of trading. Seamlessly, with max automation except actual buy and sell implementation. In fact order is fed into trading account through the AI itself. The implementation angle is the money loading from my end. Without fuel, the order is rejected by the trading platform.

Wow.

Yeah.

A whole new world.

Yeah.

25x seems right.

Yeah.

So a lot of people could be doing the same thing as you right now, right?

Yeah.

Where’s your edge?

It’s how you handle after entry. That’s where the edge is. How you manage. How you exit.

And how?

Hey, that’s the edge, remember. Not going to give that away. That’s my hard earned edge over more than two decades. Earn your own edge. There’s no substitute for diving in.

Could somebody replicate your edge through AI discussion and development?

Others could develop an edge, yes, through AI. It won’t be my edge though. I don’t care what others develop. I’ll just keep honing my edge and making it sharper day by day, trade upon trade, tirelessly. My edge will keep adapting.

What’s the end outcome for you, from this exercise?

Well, ideally, for me, the tool that I’m creating for the sheer purpose of distraction, shall then go on to yield…

…regular income.

SuperFlowers, anyone?

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How do we get to…

…superflowers?

Imagine a garden.

It’s got grass.

Grass is a weed (?).

Garden’s got other zero-benefit (?) weeds.

In general, it’s got weeds.

And, some flowers.

We don’t want the weeds.

We want the flowers.

Weeding out has activation barriers built in.

Toolkit – buy.

Or – gardener – hire.

Spend energy doing the job.

Take that extra time out of your normal routine.

A million excuses, each one seeming valid.

As mentioned earlier, weeding comes with baggage.

Overcome.

Weed.

Out.

What remains?

Flowers.

Right.

We’re still not at superflowers.

Expenditure comes up. All the time. Does it not?

If there’s a weed, sell the weed and use the proceeds to meet the expenditure.

No weed?

Well done.

Sell the least performing flower to meet the expenditure.

Done?

Income comes in?

Put it into a new opportunity. Weed or no weed status activates after some years, you decide how many years.

So, seeing only flowers now?

Wonderful.

Keep pushing. Pushing is the secret ingredient.

Any spend whatsoever, now gets met with a flower expended, or at least some part of that flower.

After some years, have a look.

What remains are your best performers.

Hope you’ve been adding to these.

Decade or so later, upholding this chronology, you are only left with…

…superflowers.

Congratulations.

This is the Time

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Shorting India…

…has now become an international norm.

Institutions are angry.

Tax surprises.

Massive corruption. At every step.

Slimy Indian counterparts. That’s us, right?

Lack of ability to understand how our system functions. If at all.

Prominent world leaders have written us off.

Soros et al are out with a…

…vengeance.

BooHoo.

Nobody likes us.

Which is ok.

Why?

It’s ok for now. As we get fully invested. No or minus hype factor, our shining ex-examples now shorted down to triple digits, should we start to cry and call it a day?

NO.

This is the time. To, slowly, get, fully, invested. Period.

When there will be hype, it will be accompanied by a hype-multiple. That’s exactly not the time to attempt full entry.

And there will be hype.

Where else is there ample growth?

Young, ‘hungry’, consuming, raring to go population?

You see, you can’t make robots consume. Humans are another story.

Where else is there ‘jugaad’?

This is the output Claude just gave for ‘jugaad’ : ‘At its core, jugaad is the art of getting something done with whatever is at hand—finding a clever, low-cost, unofficial fix rather than the “proper” (and usually expensive or unavailable) solution. It carries a sense of ingenuity under constraint: making do, hacking together, improvising a path through obstacles that a rulebook says shouldn’t be passable.’

Come on, dear shorting Western counterparts (of course I’m not shorting, I’m as long-long-long India as one can get), don’t you see it?

This is a thirty year story unfolding.

Time to get in, and stay in, is now.

Your quarter to quarter focus is so short-sighted, that even the optician doesn’t have appropriate glasses for you.

What can one say for the likes of Soros et al? Wrt the ideology that a country needs to be taken down financially, latest exploit Thailand, failed at India takedown attempt 1.0, did you, with three lending banks going down? Right? Either involved in current attempt or planning 2.0 currently, right?

Our sentiment is raked up. We will face. And overcome all shorters. In the long run.

More and more of the populace is moving its savings to its own markets.

Barely lets say 15% or less have demat accounts in our country.

Imagine the kind of money going in when this number tops 50%, which is the case in the countries shorting.

At current stand, our own very DII inflow, of which SIPs form a bulk, has managed current onslaught very reasonably. At 50%+, FII activity will not have any significant effect. It does now, not to a great extent, but to a visible one.

We are getting there.

Till then, there will be bumps.

Use the bumps.

In some years, one won’t get reasonable entry.

About that Crash

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Everybody…

…and their Uncles…

…have been yelling…

Crash. Crash. Crash. Crash.

We delved earlier. Ad nauseam. Last we spoke was about deception.

Crash always happens. Nature of markets. Inflation, then deflation, back to mean, first below mean, then to mean. Questions are : how much inflation first? How much deflation then? When does deflation begin? Does anybody know?

NO.

Model the answer?

Sure. It’s at best a…

…guesstimate…

…and please don’t pretend otherwise.

Champion modellers?

Many. TV’s brimming with champions. Some called dotcom. Others gold. Few called silver. Someone’s calling Nasdaq to -70% between 2 weeks and 2 years. Call, call, keep calling.

Meanwhile, we go about our business.

Rather than ruminate and drown in fear of a crash, we go about getting fully invested upon available opportunities.

What?

Why?

Isn’t it better to just save up for the bottom, and then pump it in.

Hmmm. Here, there’s been a shift in thinking at Magic Bull, over the years. At the bottom, here’s a numerically hypothetical scenario, your close one will be whispering in your ear something to the tune of oh-damnation-this-is-going-down-to-5000, and then the index bottoms out at 7749 or something, and reverses upwards like a F1 Red Bull Racing vehicle. Leaving all 5000ers and their bulk liquidity on hold. For re-reversal downwards. Doesn’t happen. At 10k, the 5000ers are losing it. At 15k, they can’t sleep. At 20k they go all in at an interim peak, after having spent half their liquid capital on vacations, splurging, expensive rubbish and whatdon’tyouhave.

Meanwhile, we’ve entered at select spots, and in select underlyings. Fundamentally sound. Zero debt or virtually debt-free. Free cashflow. Clean balance-sheets. Clean governmental audits. Skin in the game. Track record of navigating through disruption. Track record of shareholder-friendliness. Intelligent, diligent, industrious, vigilant people running sound businesses. This is the stuff multibaggers are made of.

Since we are in the game of bringing multibaggers into existence for us, what’s a few months of a good, hard crash to us? It will come and it will go. We are in a growth market in India. For the next three decades. Why are we getting paranoid of a few months when we will be notionally down, still going about our business, lapping up new opportunities which will have set up, not needing our invested funds for five years plus.

We’re not.

Ya, let the crash come.

Apart from the fact that segments across Indian markets are already down 50%+ after having been down 65%+ (crash in India has already happened to a noteworthy extent), a blowdown on the Nasdaq will probably knock Indian counterparts to their recent lows, perhaps another 10 to 15 to 20 % to boot, and then…

…watch the recovery baby.

It’ll leave you behind. You won’t be able to get in funds fast enough. You’ll be a combo of missed the bus and fomo and ruing it and damnation and sleepless nights because of your current fear of impending…

…crash…

…whenever it happens…

…as if 65% off from top for many, many stocks isn’t a crash already…

…and there you have it.

Crash? As in more crash? Fine. Let it come.

Meanwhile, we continue to go about our business. Till the crash. During the crash. After the few months of crash. Well into the V-shaped recovery. In our very own growth market. No need to look elsewhere.

Miss Giving

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There’s no Hurray…

…yet…

…on the Street.

People have…

…doubts.

About anything…

…even everything.

The general public seems to be containing its enthusiasm, because who knows what might be around the corner.

Owing to the cast in the mix, like Diabolo TryMeButDon’tTryTooHard, and the opponents, who, well, have championed in sins committed, and who perhaps have now been overtaken in sins committed by Diabolo TryNotTooHard and ally NotMuchYoohooThere, …

…a cease-fire…

…could mean anything…

…but a cease-fire…

…as of now.

Enthusiasm will flow once certainty replaces misgivings.

Hesitancy to come out and fully invest, given the circs, allows us future opportunity.

At every small insinuation of an anomaly, reversals will follow.

Diabolo’s back and forth penduluming on everything, for a good while now, has capped the risk appetite of the masses.

Fine. We accept the circumstances as those which will allow repeated entries over the short-term, perhaps over the short to medium term also.

The Magic Bull approach here would be to enter with whatever there is to enter, …

…over the next three to four months.

Who knows when Miss Giving will turn into Miss NotGiving. More sooner than later. Since the penduluming has gotten on everyone’s nerves now, reactions are not under control owing to nerves, and masses might come out that much harder once it becomes clear that the peace-flag persists.

Cut to our ongoing discussion on full exposure preferred in a growth market over dilly-dallying or semi-exposure over the long run.

As far as our own microcap market vis à vis world market cap is concerned, entry more sooner than later is a thing.

As time will tell, …

…a big thing.

I want to be that fool

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You know…

…the bloke who gets called out…

…at social gatherings…

…as the fool who got fully in at the top?

In a long-term growth market, I don’t mind being that fool.

It’s a short-term affliction. I think I can…

…bear looking like a fool for a not-longish duration.

Why do I say short-term?

First up, that’s my estimation of my tolerance levels.

Never happened, so it’s all estimates we function with.

Then, field of action is a long-term growth market, remember?

Here, we risk not being exposed to growth and compounding, if we’re conservative in entry.

No one’s saying get rid of your small entry quantum.

However, do let your small entry quantum expand with portfolio-size.

Also, make more entries.

Till fully invested.

In a long-term growth market, we wish to be fully invested, more sooner than later.

What’s the risk?

Growth…

…is NOT…

…a linear entity.

If we understand this one sentence, we can stay invested. Sit. For the very long term.

Thing about growth is, it happens, and then it does not, and then there’s a crash, and then it suddenly resumes, and then it can fire back to back doubling, or 50%+ for three years in a row, or what have you. Non-linear entities have peculiar equations defining them, not linear ones.

So it can well happen, again all hypothetical, that we get in fully, with precaution, with a small entry quantum, with many entries, over 12 months, and right after that, Wham. Down it goes, big. Ya, we look like fools then. We’re called out at parties. People laugh. It’s not necessarily a ‘serve him right laugh’ but more a ‘relief laugh’, as in ‘thank God I’m not in such a position’. And that’s OK.

Why?

Ya, Nath, why so cool about the whole thing?

Will tell you why.

In a year’s time after such hypothetical crash, when the market has sunk some more, people don’t know whether to laugh at or cry for us. There are feelings of pity, and questions like ‘Are you ok?’ crop up. Just doing a simulation. Picked up the ‘Are you ok?’ from a recent smaller crash, because that exchange actually happened. These situations are also absolutely ok. Why?

Things are about to change.

Long-term growth market, remember?

Growth not a linear entity, remember? When it sets in, can happen very fast, before one has gotten significant money in.

We are fully exposed, remember?

What do you think happens to our folios? In another year, we could not only cover up, but be up 2x. In five we could be up 5x. In 10, we could be up 12x. In 20, perhaps 25x. No longer foolish.

Those who don’t get in, miss the growth market.

Others get in to some extent, and catch growth to some extent.

Fools get both extremes, …

…the looking foolish one, and…

…the long-term vindication one.

Life at Frontier Minus One

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Sanity prevails…

…at frontier minus one.

Rat race is within the underlying’s…

control.

Virtual / quasi / substantial / semi debt-free-ness…

exists.

Free cash-flow generation on the balance sheet is…

…common.

At frontier minus one, the narrative is …

…under control…

…as proven by self-determination of speed of change…

…and by exhibition of substantial growth.

Not at breakneck speeds.

Not by borrowing to the hilt.

Not by greedy behaviour.

Not by indigestible trajectory.

Not by a reckless ‘not giving a damn too bad if you’re not so fast’ attitude.

Life at frontier minus one…

…is somewhat balanced, with a flow.

Innovation at frontier minus one is achieved much faster

…than at frontier minus two, but much slower than at…

…frontier zero zero.

No tech company that wishes to thrive well into the future is currently functioning at…

…frontier minus two.

Either the transition to minus one has been made, or, it’s in the process.

Why not go for the jugular? Straight to zero zero.

Everyone has their role in this puzzle.

Imagine an older civilization going into battle.

There was a front line, paving the way, at immense cost.

There was a reserve support line, with artillery, first-aid, communication, and what have you.

There was a third line with supply, reinforcements, semi-trainees doing other stuff normally, etc.

There was aerial support, naval support, intelligence, research and analysis staff etc.

All combined to create an ensemble of actions.

Cut to now.

Warfare has changed.

Immense cost is still there, but immense cost to the front line, as in cost of life, has been reduced greatly, speak drone and missile warfare, supported by AI backed intelligence and analysis.

Point is, innovation, a different way of thinking, disruption and all their cousins will find a way to make things affordable, implementable.

That’s the way civilizations move forward.

Not for you or me to change. It’s the way of the world.

And that is what frontier minus one banks upon.

Meaning, to keep functioning at sustainable levels, slowly, painstakingly, in the process, simultaneously, finding a way, a connect, to frontier zero zero.

The connect can be of co-work. Amicable. Win-Win. You earn, we earn.

At frontier minus one, the world view is not to annihilate, but to…

…accommodate.

To win…

…together…

…in…

symbiosis.

Symbiosis

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Imagine…

…the most value you can imagine.

That’s what this word is worth.

Especially now.

What’s the truth?

Existential question.

First we had everyone and their aunties proclaim the death of core Tech companies.

Hmmm.

Core Tech companies, and their chief protagonists, thought otherwise.

Number of believers kept waning though.

Until recently.

Something started to reverse in belief systems.

AI was behaving fantastically utilitarian with a human holding the reins.

Meaning, there needed to be a human there, for practical purposes.

Frontier AI deployed engineers to be the human face. Or so one was told.

Came the trust issue.

Do we double up on our trust in this no track record magician who just showed up out of nowhere?

Do we entrust privileged client data to the unknown?

Do we strip ourselves naked, TWICE?

NO.

Everyone and their uncles have answered with an emphatic NO.

Who is the human handler – the go-between – the trusted face – the rein holder?

Someone with a track record.

Proven.

Tried, and…

trusted.

Self-propelling.

With no liabilities. Spell ZERO DEBT.

With copious FREE CASH FLOW to INNOVATE FREELY…

…to navigate the reins successfully and as per the requirements of an enterprise.

Who is this entity?

None other than…

…our own very well known…

CORE TECH.

Leaner.

Hungry to prove its point.

To have its raison d’être acknowledged, and paid for.

To earn and compound steadily.

Forget about dying. Let’s talk about long term thriving.

Then, we had the captains of frontier AI admitting, that yes, ‘we do need core tech handholding to be implemented successfully’.

Gone was the initial hubris, that ‘we had come to wipe out old thought patterns, and all old systems’.

Reality had dawned, and these captains at least had the decency to admit it.

Actually, they had realized that their existence now depended upon how much their infrastructure would seep through. And…

…that no one was trusting them enough to hand over the job of seeping through to them, but much rather, to trusted old compatriots, to Core Tech.

So they came forward to shake hands.

Good.

Symbiosis.

We want to move forward on the back of this symbiosis.

There will be gigantic and fast development on the back of this symbiosis.

We are looking at space travel, space colonization, disease control, climate change, cheap solar, cheap desalination, perhaps even alien integration and partnership – unimaginable perhaps a few months ago, but possibly conceivable on the back of this symbiosis.

There’s new talk which has recently emerged, from the other extreme, and needs to be discarded, like its mirror image on the opposite side of the bell curve. This is the talk of frontier AI dying out because of becoming unaffordable.

Well, in whatever shape it exists currently, frontier AI does have tremendous capacity to solve problems.

Let it do just that on the back of this symbiosis, and earnings will start to flow.

Core Tech won’t let it wither, frontier AI has now become their raison d’être too.

Don’t you see it?

Two universes are converging, each needing the other to survive.

In the end, they become one universe.

Companies will merge. Synergies will multiply. Mega projects will be achieved, faster, more bombastically.

Earnings will flow.

Where do you want to be?

Remaining a doomsdayer will not help you.

Get into the flow.

Invest into debt-free, free cash-flow generating core tech as value deepens.

Look for debt-free, frontier minus one, free cash-flow generating semi AI companies, research these thoroughly for any red flags, and if those found are manageable, put in some funds.

If you find a frontier tech with manageable debt and a reasonable balance sheet, with a PEG ratio (price to earnings ratio divided by earnings per share growth percentage for the fiscal) somewhat under control. ok, put in some money there too.

Get out of the doomsday mindset.

Put your money to work, and then lock it in for another twenty years. Leave the compounded proceeds to your children.

Now.

Let the crashes come. There will be compounding post crashes too. Just look at the monthly chart of an IT index from 1995 to today. Dot-com peak looks miniscule and low compared to the levels of the monthly chart today.

Enough talking. Do the recce and then let’s talk.

Fool?

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I don’t mind.

What?

Being called that.

Why?

For me, it’s an indicator.

How?

When someone in my environment expresses that he / she considers me foolish, this acts for me like a guage.

Where?

In order formulation.

Which?

Good till traded orders.

Explain.

Ok. Let’s say someone considered my 787 GTT HDFC Bank entry foolish. With price having fallen to 745, and still not showing signs of stability, someone might consider me foolish for having entered ‘early’ at 787. I want this to happen. I want to sense this attitude in another person’s behaviour.

Then?

Simple. Formulate and enter next GTT for HDFC Bank at 690.

What’s the logic?

That’s just the way I use this indicator.

Position-sized small quantum?

Absolutely.

Considered bulk-entry at bottom?

What’s the bottom? Who claims to know the bottom?

499?

No idea. How do you know you’ll catch the bottom? What if you miss entry altogether?

What if I get full entry in lumpsum, at 499?

What if price stays below 400 for a month after that? Your lumpsum entry will hardwire you to your terminal, and it’s one month of sleepless nights, I can promise you that. Neurosis. Psychosis. Freeze. God knows how long it will be before you can take another rational decision.

And your staggered full entry with a higher buying average will not cause all these things?

That’s the whole point. It will not.

It will not? How?

Market psychology is counter-intuitive. When are you going to understand this one basic point? Going in, let’s say ten times, between 800 and 499, over three months, at every new entry, the nervous system forgets older price. It focuses on newer price, not even on buying average. It actively registers one small quantum entry at 499 as per this strategy, and forgets other entries above, at least forgets them well enough to suit the purpose. Bottomline – such a nervous system is poised to avoid neurosis, psychosis and the like.

You’re just making this up.

Try it out. This is what works for me towards full strategy implementation. I am able to successfully fool my nervous system into buying maximum units without setting it up to hurt itself, should the market fall more, and stay lower for longish periods. This is my win, and a cornerstone of my lowering the buying average strategy in high conviction stocks during crises. Tested successfully during CoViD. No more testing. Current crisis is about full implementation. Will keep this buying strategy on through the entire crisis, or till fully invested, whatever comes first.

Why put in everything?

This is money sidelined to go in. It’s not daily resources money, or college fund money, or family expenses money. It is investing money. It’s supposed to go in. What’s better for it than to go in low?

Where is the courage coming from?

High conviction is a state of mind. It’s a reflex. Over time and over many, many studies, observations, behaviour analyses etc., you develop it for a stock. Once you have high conviction in a stock, nothing should come in between you and full entry, if price allows.

Am still trying to decided whether you look foolish or intelligent?

Though I don’t care for your opinion, I don’t mind it either if you give it to me, for I will use the encounter as an indicator.

Is that what you’ve gravitated down to, using ridiculous and self-concocted indicators to navigate the markets?

Doing things which no one else has before sets me up for vindication no one else has gotten before. No more questions, do the math.

Constants

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Waldermort…

…overplayed his hand.

Thought he had the nuts…

…and bet the farm.

Turns out…

…that the adversary’s hole cards…

…plus the flop, turn and river…

…are leading to a full house.

As opposed to Waldy’s…

…ordinary nut flush.

Waldy is oversmart and a half.

Backfires at times.

This one has backfired at the worst possible time.

Only one result.

Waldy loses…

…everything.

Reserve status.

Serious player status.

Reputation, if there was any.

Loyalty, which was abundant from former allies, but is now…

…not even zero, but minus.

What more can one lose?

Whatever one can. It’s lost.

When this is over, a new methodology of doing everything business and financial will have emerged.

Meanwhile, a few constants remain.

There are areas in the world, where there is growth.

And will be, for the next 25 years.

Like India.

Semblance of stability?

Yes.

Integrity?

Yes.

Win-win attitude?

Yes.

Loyalty?

Yes.

Balance?

Yes.

Clout?

Yes.

Consumption.

Yes.

Period.

Buy India during this fall.

As long as the fall lasts. One year. Two years. Three years. No one knows.

What one also doesn’t know is whether India will give this buying opportunity again.

So, buy India.

Even if it means that you get fully invested during current fall.

That’ll be just great.

Magic

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Sure, …

… nobody said this was a bottom already.

No signs of a bottom.

For all you know, the real correction just started.

So, everyone is asking, …

… why in the world a buyer is buying …

… now.

Confused? No need to be.

First up, please understand, that money enters the market in a planned fashion when position sizing rules are in place.

Oh, there’s one more safety rule.

In a day, only so much goes in, in total.

Let’s say what you are referring to as a bottom comes within, hmm, two days, one day, four hours, one hour… ,

… whenever it comes.

Do you actually believe and / or have the guts to get fully invested in that minuscule time-frame?

Let me answer that for you. NO.

Why am I so clear on this?

Moving big money in one shot when the whole world’s pajamas are falling, and watching it possibly become half in a few days will most likely lead to neurosis and / or psychosis.

It is mentally digestible to keep buying at levels as per the entry quantum allowed by one’s position-sizing algorithm.

Though the overall market or index or sector benchmark might not be signalling a bottom, individual stocks hover around correction levels, threatening to recover from there.

We let them hover.

If they are not declining further from a correction level after a bit, we pick up one lot.

What’s the lot?

It’s a function of one’s networth at that point.

What function?

You decide. Yes. Your decide your own position size at each point thus, as per a mathematical calculation. You can decide to programme this function, for example, in a manner that you go in more when you are winning and go in less when you are losing. Or vice-versa. As per your personality and risk-profile. You call the shots. You are the master of your money and journey.

As time goes by, and as the correction deepens, you have lots of lots in. Ideally, you get fully invested before recovery. Compared with trying to move in fully at the exact bottom, well you might get lucky with the latter option, but it will burn your nerves, and resulting psychosis can last longer than when rational decisions will need to be taken. Not worth it. Position-size, entry quantum, going in bit by bit – this is what our nervous system can handle well without getting damaged. Markets change within months, perhaps weeks, and…

… when the magic happens, you deploy your exit strategy, whatever that is. Be rationally around to do so.

Or, simply, don’t do anything except watching the magic, …

… of a low buying average develop into a multiple.