Jumping Jackstops

Recently, Mr. Cool and Mr. System Addict decide to get into a trade.

Yeah, surprise surprise, Mr. Cool is liquid again!

They’ve decided to trade Gold, and are pretty much in the money already. Their trades have come good first up. Both are leveraged 25:1, which is common with Gold derivatives. Mr. Addict has bet 5% of his networth on the trade, and Mr. Cool, true to his name, has matched Mr. Addict’s amount.

Gold prices jump, and Mr. Addict’s target is hit. He exits without thinking twice, and is pretty pleased upon doubling his trade amount within a week. He pickles 90% of the booty in fixed income schemes, and is planning a holiday for his girl-friend with the remaining amount. Instead of trading further, he decides to recuperate for a while.

Meanwhile, Mr. Cool rubs his hands in glee as the price of Gold shoots up further. His notional-profits now far exceed the actually booked profits of Mr. Addict. When’s he planning to exit? Not soon. He wants to make a killing, and once and for all prove to Mr. Addict and to the world, that he rules. He wants to bury Mr. Addict’s trade results below the mountain of his own king-sized profits. Gold soars further.

Mr Cool has trebled his money, and is still not booking any profits. He picks up his cell to call Mr. Addict. Wants to rub it in, you know.

Mr. Addict puts down his daiquiri by the poolside in his hotel in Ibiza. His girl-friend has at last started admiring him. They’ve been swimming all morning. “All right, all right, he’ll take this one call. Oh, it’s Mr. Cool, wonder what he’s up to?” Mr. Addict is one of the few people in the world who are able to switch off. He’s totally forgotten about Gold and his winning trade, and is really enjoying his holiday.

Mr. Cool tries to rub it in, but receives some unperturbed advice from the other end of the line. He’s being asked to be satisfied and to book profits right now. Of course he’s not going to do that. All right, fine, if he wants to play it by “let’s see how high this can go”, he needs to have a wide-gapped trailing stop in place, says Mr. Addict. Of course he’s got a wide-gapped trailing stop in place, says Mr. Cool. Mr. Addict wishes him luck, cuts the call, and forgets about the existence of Mr. Cool, dozing off into a well-deserved snooze.

As Gold moves higher, Cool starts to think about that wide-gapped trailing stop. Let alone having one in place, he doesn’t even know what it means. A quick call to the broker follows. The broker is ordered to install a trailing stop into Mr. Cool’s trade. Since Cool doesn’t know what “wide-gapped” means, he forgets to mention it. The broker doesn’t like Cool’s attitude and his proud tone. He installs a narrow-gapped trailing stop.

Circumstances change, and Gold starts to drop. It’s making big moves on the downside, falling a few percentage points in one shot. Cool’s narrow-gapped trailing stop gets fully jumped over; it doesn’t get a chance to become activated in the first place, because it is narrow-gapped and not wide-gapped. The price of the underlying just leaps over the narrow gap between trigger price and limit price. Happens. Cool does not install a new stop. Stupid.

Next morning, Cool’s jaw drops when he sees Gold down 15% overnight. On a 25:1 leverage, he’s just about to lose his margin. The phone rings. It’s the margin call. Cool panics. He answers the margin call. His next call is to Mr. Addict, asking what he should do. Mr. Addict is shocked to learn that Cool has answered the margin call. He asks him to cut the trade immediately.

Cool’s gone numb. Gold drops another 4%. Phone rings. Second margin call. Cool doesn’t have the money to answer it. In fact , he didn’t have the money to answer the first one. In the broker’s next statement, that amount will show up as a debit, growing at the rate of 18% per annum.

Mr. Cool’s not liquid anymore. Actually, he’s broke. No, worse that that. He’s in debt. Greed got him.

Putting it all Together – The View from the Mountain-Top

Remember getting into the driver’s seat for the first time?

It all seemed so difficult. You got the brake-clutch-accelerator coordination all wrong. Proper gear changes were a far cry. There was no question of looking into the rear-view or the side-view mirrors, since you were looking straight. And the shoulder-glance – just forget about it, you said to the instructor.

Slowly, it all came together, perhaps after a 1,50,000 km behind the wheel. Now, driving is a piece of cake. It’s all there in your reflexes. It’s as if the car is connected to your brain, and is an extension of your limbs.

It took time and effort, didn’t it? And why would it be any different in the markets?

Flash-back to 1988 – high school – our Chemistry teacher Frau Boetticher used to teach us to strive for the “Ueberblick”. Roughly and applicably translated, this analogical German word means “the view from the mountain-top”. In Street lingo, the Ueberblick is about life in the Zone. Frau Boetticher used to push us to get into the Zone. She knew that then, our reflexes would take over. She passed away before our A-levels, after a very fulfilling and successful lifetime of teaching. She was the best teacher to ever have taught me.

When your reflexes make you enter a market, or exit it, or decide on the level of a stop, or a target etc. etc., you’ve managed to put it all together. Doesn’t happen overnight, though. The ball-park figure of 1,50,000 km behind the wheel changes to roughly 7 years of market experience, before one can expect to put it all together on the Street.

Where does that leave you?

As a thumb rule, money-levels at stake in the first 7 years on the Street need to be low. When you’re getting the hang of things, you just don’t bet the farm. That’s common sense, a rare commodity, so I’m underlining it for you.

On the Street, you only learn from mistakes. They are your teachers, and they prepare you to deal with Mrs. Market. No books, or professors or college will make you fit enough to tackle Mrs. Market, only mistakes will. Make mistakes in your first seven years on the Street – make big mistakes. Learn from them. Don’t make them again. Get the big blunders out of the way while the stakes are small. Round up your learning before the stakes get big.

Once your reflexes all come together, you can start risking larger sums of money, not before. Also, in today’s neon age, it’s difficult to stay in the Zone for prolonged periods of time. Something or the other manages to distract us out of the Zone, whether it is internal health or external affairs. When you feel you’re out of the Zone, just cut back your position-size. When you feel you’re back in, you can scale up your position-size again.

It’s as simple as that. Useful ideas have one characteristic in common – they are simple.

Just 40 $ Away…

The first signs of greed can be sensed.

We’re talking about Gold.

A few months ago, serious players in Gold had identified Rs. 28,000 / 10 grams as their target for Gold.

This target has been achieved for a while now. Nobody’s booked their Gold.

Instead, the target has been revised to Rs. 30,000 / 10 grams, which is just another 40 $ an ounce away.

Please don’t tell me that nobody is going to book (meaning sell, as in booking profits) their Gold @ Rs. 30,000 / 10 grams. I’ve got this nagging feeling that they’re not.

Hmmm, greed is setting in. Nothing unusual. That’s how a bubble progresses.

Yesterday, an update from Reliance alerted me to the hypothesis that Rs. 40,000 / 10 grams was a real possibility in Gold.

Maybe, maybe not. As of now, Reliance is sounding like that fellow who predicted a Dow level of 36,000 some years ago. Today, 36k on the Dow seems impossible, even in one’s dreams.

Does it matter to you how high Gold can go? Or is your target more important? Both are valid questions.

If your target has been achieved, here’s one scenario. Book the Gold and put the released funds into debt. Debt in India is safe, and is giving excellent returns, especially to the retail investor.

If your stomach is full, do you dream about more food?

Seriously people, playing this by targets is a serious option.

It’s also ok if you wanna play it in a “let’s see how high this can go” manner. That’s just another way of playing it. Fine. In this case, you need to set trailing stops, and you need to stick to these if they get hit.

Either way, identify a booking strategy for Gold and stick to it.

Take greed out of the equation. There’s no room for greed in the career of a market player. There’s no room for fear either.

We’ll talk about taking fear out of the equation some other day, if and when unprecedented gloom and doom abounds.

Investing is not about building a Consensus

We are what we eat, as an ancient proverb goes.

Another one says that we reap what we sow.

And from what little I’ve seen, eventually, we fall in line and invest as per the wiring of our mental framework. Till we don’t do this, we are following someone. Eventually there’s a clash of personalities. This is a clash between the one leading us and our own beliefs. We now have to make a choice to either go it alone, or to keep following the leader.

Each day after this clash has taken place, the rift deepens. More of our beliefs are being violated. That’s because the leader is investing according to his or her own beliefs. Investment is a projection of one’s personality. Such an evnironment full of conflict leads us to wrong decisions, which result in losses.

Investment isn’t about building a consensus. It’s really not about x number of people coming together, agreeing upon an opinion, putting money on the line and making a killing. That’s an approach that may be part of a trading strategy, but it is far removed from comfortable and healthy investing.

Investing 1.0.1 is about understanding one’s own personality, because this is going to interfere with every decision and thought process one will make in this line. The identification of any investment target needs to be in line with one’s personality, otherwise the acquired target will continue to disturb one’s thought process and everyday life. Who’s best suited to bring about an alignment between investment targets and personality? You are, not a third party. An outsider can only second guess how your mental framework functions. You know yourself much better than anybody else.

Once a basic alignment between personality and investment strategy has been achieved, things start to fall in place, with investments yielding satisfaction and profits.

One doesn’t need to form a consensus with anyone to identify a successful investment and make money in it.