Category Archives: Time

MainStreaming

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When the trickle…

…becomes a flow…

…becomes a water-fall, …

…you’ve just gone main-stream.

Life main-stream is not different as such, …

…except for more zeros behind a one.

One more thing is very prominent, though.

NOISE.

Yeah, noise just got that much louder.

Why?

Because…

…there’s your main-stream, …

…and ever other professional concept or suggestion, …

…is noise, …

…for you.

If that’s not your reality, you’re going to bungle up your main-stream.

At this stage, mistakes are costly.

Going back to a drawing-board is going to cost precious time.

By the time you’ve gotten to your main-stream, time is not a luxury.

Make your scaling up worth it by believing in your main-stream.

Keep fine-tuning it to make it work for you, to its logical conclusion.

That would be the legacy stage.

Once you’re passing on your legacy, all else becomes noise, since closing a positive loop with deep satisfaction is what we ultimately strive for.

A-Gamers

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Hey, …

…nowadays, …

…we only play our A-game.

There’s no time for formalities.

It’s late in the day.

All weapons are out.

This is the need of the hour.

So, what are the salient features of our A-game?

A well-forged, multiply-faceted, time-tested road map – our system of systems – our one Strategy. This one’s 360 degrees. It incorporates both trading and investing, and leads to very long holds in cost-free form. Includes more than twenty highly competitive, sharpened, edge-providing Modules, about which I wrote a few articles back. As far as strategies go, we are cruising in a Maybach on the Autobahn. No worries there.

Patience. In the last twenty odd years, we have learnt how to sit. Makes biggest money, said we know who. Patience is ubiquitous, or is it? Many people have developed it. Many are born with it. But then, many are not. And, markets demand their own kind of patience. Over the years, we have learnt and developed market-patience. We wait for our levels before acting. We sit on our Cost-Free-Ness, like, forever. We are not in a hurry. I ‘can behave’ as if this is my own module 🙂 (do allow me the indulgence), but patience is universal and out there for everyone to incorporate and exploit on their own.

Liquidity. This is a module. Am reiterating it here since it is key. Our initial small-entry-quantum strategy (remember, that’s how we started!) allowed us ample liquidity, always. Yes, we were always liquid in situations, when they came, while building up the backbone of our portfolios. Slowly, portfolio-size started to grow. Then came the incorporation of position-sizing, thanks to my learnings from Dr. Van K.Tharp. Subsequently, I instinctively added my own twist to this, making it Non-Linear Position Sizing (NLPS) that we follow. NLPS initially allows for small entry quanta. As portfolio-size increases, so does each entry quantum-size. However, the latter increases more than y = x, i.e. more than linear. This means that over the very long term, entry quanta become remarkably substantial in size. Nevertheless, we still maintain balance by perhaps Fine-Tuning entries and exits to the nth level, i.e. with huge win probabilities, which automatically / mathematically leads to lesser entries. Strategy thus goes on cruise-control. Furthermore, outstanding entry-prices, followed by Quick Generation of cost-free-ness make our very long-term holdings as Anti-Fragile (thanks for the term, Mr. Taleb) as possible.

Talking of cruise-control, our back-end allows for full Automation at button-clicks. All transactional trail-mail is auto-forwarded to every required avenue. It’s a one-time self-setup time-expense, so don’t be afraid of it, since the reward is disproportionately huge. Each avenue allows preview and further transfer / storage after button-clicks. Taxation? Button-clicks. Indexing? Button-clicks. Retrieval? Button-clicks. Viewing in any format? Button-Clicks (baby).

Time. We have all the time in the world. We do our own thing. Income is sorted. Wealth is being generated on auto, and is multiplying. Learn languages. Travel. Pro-bono. I teach kids. To manage their own finances. From a young age. Currently I’m teaching four kids. It’s a give-back, and they can pay it forward.

In a nutshell, that’s my A-game. I’ve taught it forward, so I can talk about a we. You’ve seen it develop in this space over the last 14+ years. I’ve nothing to hide. It’s for everyone to use and benefit from. The act of Giving gives me the most Satisfaction in life.

Chronology

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Pipelines…

…come at a cost.

And, first up, there’s no need to fret about this cost.

I know, it pinches.

Having funds at a 20 second disposal will definitely cost.

Why go this extra, extra mile?

That’s a very befitting question.

We are not mad to create pipelines on call within 20 seconds.

Well, just to give you a heads up about how things can go down, here’s something.

June 4th, India, markets tank in the first hour.

Alerts, GTDs, GTTs, what-have-yous trigger.

I’m busy. Business meeting. Can’t get away.

6 of 7 GTTs in place get hit, and I’m in on these 6 scrips, at my price. 7th gets hit. No entry. No more funds in purchase account reported.

As meeting leader delivers on taxation laws in the country, there’s regret in my mind. Why did I not have enough funds in place?

Idea.

Let’s slimily look busy, and, meanwhile, activate a pipeline, put funds in place, and forcefully enter this particular scrip at CMP.

“Could you please pay attention, Mr. Nath, and put your phone away!”

Yikes.

Meeting ends (phew).

Action stations. Funds in place. Yes.

But what have we here?

Scrip’s showing a huge pin, and live daily candle has become a hammer. Bottomed out and then some, has the scrip. CMP is now 11% above the bottom.

Chickening out.

11% shaved off my margin of safety, in 45 minutes.

Yes people, that’s the window nowadays, for getting dream entries.

45 minutes.

Had it not been for the meeting, I would have been in within a minute or two, after reading the alert that GTT got triggered but no funds were available.

Lost time in this case would have been the interval between reading messages, plus a minute or two to have funds in place and go through with the buy. I’m not very regular about messages, though, perhaps on purpose, and 30 minute plus periods can well elapse. So, window cuts very fine. Idea is, whenever awareness kicks in, one needs to be in within a minute or two, if the GTT option has failed to deliver due to whatever reason.

The case described above was the one time that did not work, despite having everything of the highest quality in place.

What puts salt on the wounds is that the scrip quasi doubled from there within three months, so those lost 11% on margin of safety were peanuts. Yeah, the final fail was my fearful mind.

Painfulllllll….

That’s how it crumbles. One learns from the pain.

No pain, no learning.

My learning from this is that when GTT limit is 5.2% below CMP, we just sheer put funds in place for that GTT…

…now.

Beta

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We’re not afraid…

…of beta.

In fact, we want beta to be there.

And, we want it to be big.

Beta is part of wealth-generation through cost-free-ness.

Why…

…are we not afraid of beta?

When we make an underlying cost-free, there are two parameters that are of prime importance, in the game that we are playing.

First up, speed of cost-free-ness.

How much time has it take us to reach the desired stage?

Too much time?

Work at the strategy.

Short time?

Great.

With large betas, we take lesser time to reach cost-free-ness.

Cost-free-ness is a state of mind.

Also, it is a function of parameters prevailing.

As a result of internal synthesis, we know in our mind when it’s time for cost-free-ness creation.

Once cost-free-ness is created, we move on to the next play with the same objective.

Next up, we have quantum of cost-free-ness created, per capita time.

Higher the quantum, in lesser time, why, that’s optimal.

Again big beta.

Without big beta, there’s not much chance of achieving large quantum in less time.

How do we exploit big beta to attain objective?

Get in on huge margin of safety. Get principal out when exuberance prevails. Scrips being played are those of which you are convinced. Meaning, that you are mentally in sync with very long-term holds of cost-free-ness created in these scrips.

Also…

…as a general game-enhancing practice…

…get in and out with multi-day or multi-month triggers. Don’t look at the markets while they’re on. Take emotion out of play. Nil market forces out of your equation.

Here one sees, how, amongst other factors, a big beta allows one to generate long-term wealth through cost-free-ness while…

…acting on one’s own terms.

Constriction

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Nobody likes constriction.

It …

… limits, …

… suffocates …

… and tries to lower one’s self-esteem.

Have been constricted.

Circumstances all around border on criminal society, fascism and unnecessary limits applied to everyday life, even home life.

There’ve been two ways to go.

One is to crumble.

The other is to find pathways.

In alleys.

Corners.

Cloud.

Navigation.

Codes.

Systems.

MultiTasking.

Covert efficiency.

Knowledge acquisition

Application.

When nothing works for one on the outside, we go into achievement mode on the inside.

I speak for those who decide not to crumble.

Times will change.

They always have.

It’s dictators that have crumbled.

They’ve not been able to conquer time.

We keep ourselves functional till our time comes.

When it does …

… and it will, …

… our added soft assets will shine forth …

… not only with a vengeance, …

… but will be impossible to ignore.

Achievement is just an add-on.

Survival is a far more precious memory.

Screen-Time

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Is that a hammer in your hand?

No?

Great.

Yes?

Does everything appear to be a nail?

In the markets, I like to keep buttons away from sight, as a start.

Meaning, that the conditions to bring a button out…

…need to trigger first.

How would I know?

For that, there are alerts.

Meaning that we go on doing other stuff, till we are alerted, that there’s action ahead.

That’s when we activate the concerned button to visible mode.

Taking time, we decide whether this particular button needs to be pressed.

No?

Proceed with other stuff as normal.

Yes?

Press.

Do your accounts.

See how you’ve fared.

Done?

Proceed with other stuff…

…till next alert for button visibility activation.

Why all this rigmarole?

Because we don’t wish to be trigger-happy in the markets.

We take calls when they’re due.

We use time-slots in between calls to live life, tension-free, happy.

That’s one approach to the markets.

I’m sure you have your own.

Maybe yours involves more screen-time.

I respect that.

Mine doesn’t involve too much screen time, to be honest.

That’s the way I like it.

That also doesn’t mean anything as far as volumes or output are concerned.

Lesser screen-time leaves me ample space for other stuff.

I get to live a fuller life-experience.

To each their own.

This is my take.

I respect your take too.

Some takes require maximum screen-time.

Some like it like that.

That’s their life.

Fine.

Respected.

This is mine.

And this is my market screen-time…

…perhaps an hour or two a day, sometimes one, sometimes two.

Something like that.

Making Time Stand Still

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The buck stops…

…with the entity called time.

Too much hangs on it.

Lack of it makes decisions difficult.

Too much of it defers them.

In the markets, we take it out of the equation…

…and then act.

If not, market forces bog us down.

And, imagine the load if our game is heavy.

After having gotten our basics infallibly into place, we wish to play a heavy game, without the load.

Hence,…

… – time – …

…first we take out of the equation,…

…and then we play.

We stretch the trade duration to a potential infinity. Period.

Trade might resolve in a few days. Or not. Right.

However, potential infinity gives us the wherewithal to focus on the next play.

Then, before action, we make time stand still.

How?

By forgetting that it exists.

By focusing on the one act that we are about to commit.

By encompassing the totality of all connectivities that have led us to the moment of acting, and having them before our mind and on our fingertips, as we act.

By being pinpointedly mindful of our actions whilst shutting out any disturbing noise.

By being…

…in the Zone,…

…such that,…

physically,…

…time might tick,…

…but for us it doesn’t seem to.

And…

…why?

Why are we so interested in making time stand still as we act?

For just one pure reason.

We want our act to have maximum impact.

And that it will, once we act, immersed in the scheme of things.

The chronology is as follows : Time still-stand, identification of market act, entry into scheme of things, action, exit from scheme, time roll-forward.

Timeframe doesn’t register in our minds. Potent action is identified, and happens, fitting into the natural fabric of things, into the timeline of the scheme of events.

Impact, ideally, is maximum.

Imagine the cumulative impact of a lifetime of such actions!

Wishing you lucrative times!

🙂

Triggers Ahead

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Market moves require trigerrs.

In the absence of these, lack-lustre activity results…

…giving rise to illogical short-term trading ranges, for example.

Come a trigger, a move starts, or continues, or even ends, if the trigger is adverse.

What kind of triggers lie up ahead?

US election.

Yeah, Mr. President is going go keep US markets on a high till then, and that will translate over to world markets.

Corona cases receding?

Yes.

Trigger on the upside.

Corona recoveries increasing?

Yes. Reiterates the above.

Vaccine announcement for release expected till December ’20?

Upside trigger.

Vaccine starts showing good results?

Reiterates the above.

Small- and mid-cap buying by institutions to the tune of 28k Cr till the government deadline of January 31, ’20?

That’s a solid one.

This one is going to hold the back-end of the market (small- and mid-caps) perked up and reaching for January ’18 highs.

That’s five triggers back to back.

Any down-triggers in this time-frame?

Hmmm…

…let’s see…

…the picture till January 31, ’20 seems to be quite clear, actually.

Of course one might be wrong, and the model might break down.

That’s when we’ll just change the model.

However, till the model breaks down, one follows a charted roadmap which is already panning out.

Where does that leave you?

Assuming this model hits, there would be frenzied buying in small- and mid-caps just before the January 31, ’20 deadline.

Many MF Houses have announced their cautious and unpanicking approach towards picking up small- and mid-caps.

Come January, some players will not have picked up enough.

If the authorities don’t extend the deadline, these very institutions will make a beeline for such underlyings.

Government fellows will have a bit of a guilty conscience because of the mayhem they caused in this segment in January ’18, ordering the ad-hoc reshuffle of MFs.

To make things good again for affected parties, they might even allow such a frenzy to happen by not extending the deadline…

…and that’s exactly what we want.

Why?

We are waiting patiently for complete euphoria to set in, to sell those inhabitants of our folios, which we don’t wish to hold anymore.

As per this model, this could happen in January.

If It doesn’t, and if the model breaks down, that’s fine too, we’ll just wait for another time and high.

Winning in the markets is mainly about patience and discipline.

Money follows.

Making Time Our Friend

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Hurry…

…spoils the curry.

Specifically with regard to Equity…

…one should never, never be in a hurry. 

You see…

…there will always be a correction.

You will get an entry. 

Wait for the right entry. 

You will, eventually, get a prime exit. 

Wait for the time. 

Make time your friend. 

How?

Simple.

Take it out of the equation.

Simple?

In the small entry quantum strategy, time is, by default, taken out of the equation. 

It loses its urgency as a defining factor, for us, psychologically.

We don’t have any immediate timelines. 

We go with…

…the flow. 

When opportunities appear…

…we act.

When they don’t…

…we don’t act.

Most of the time…

…we don’t act.

Then there are black swans, and we act many times in a row. Like now.

Action, or lack of it, depends on what’s happening. 

We don’t force action.

Why?

Because we have all the time in the world. We’ve made it our friend, remember.

We know that we’ll get action…

…eventually. 

We conserve liquidity and energy for when action comes.

You see, when the pressure of a time-line is gone, quality of judgement shoots up.

We make superior calls. 

Of course we make numerous mistakes too. 

However, the quantum going into the mistake is small. This is the small entry quantum strategy, remember. 

Once we’ve made a selection mistake in an underlying, and have realised this, we don’t shoot another quantum chasing our error. Instead we let it be, and wait for a prime exit from our error. It will come. 

We keep going into identified underlyings not falling into the error category, with small quanta. 

Many, many times, we make a price-error. Price going against us after entry is a price-error, because the market is always right. It’s us who are wrong when things go against us. 

Never mind. After a price-error, we enter the same underlying with another quantum, and this time we get a better price. Once gain one observes the friendliness of time, even after price has gone against us, all because of our small entry quantum strategy.

When price is going in our favour, we might not enter after a level. Though we’re not getting further entries in the underlying, appreciation is working in our favour. 

It’s a win-win on both sides of the timeline for us…

…because we’ve made time our friend.

Sophistication-Complicatedness-Overmodelling – REALLY?

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The simplest ideas in life…

…go the longest way.

It’s also the simplest ideas that…

…make money in the markets.

As in, buying low, then selling high…

…learning to sit…

…not nipping a multibagger in the bud…

…recognising one’s risk-profile…

…and behaving within its parameters…

…for starters.

Do we even know what our risk-profile is?

What gives us a sleepless night?

Have we identified what?

Do we still do…

…that?

Most of us still haven’t gotten our basics together…

…because we’re too busy handling affairs in more complicated manners.

We like sophistication.

Let it cost.

Let it lose money.

Let it bring in lesser earning than simpler models.

Main thing is…

…it looks (and sounds) good.

It looks (and sounds)…

sophisticated.

It gives others the impression…

…that one is a big shot.

We overmodel.

The nth differentials of our models lose touch with real pictures on the ground.

Why can’t we move within the parameters of time-tested money-making principles?

Markets are not rocket-science.

We try and make them look like rocket-science.

What do we lose out on?

Time.

Money spent on sophistication that doesn’t yield.

Energy.

We lose out on the fun.

When we’re having fun, we will make money.

When we keep things simple, we’ll have fun.

It’s like doing five things at the same time, things which are all fun when done one at a time.

Are we having more fun when we do all five together?

Really?

No.

A little bit of sophistication and modelling, built upon a strong foundation of simplicity does give us an edge though.

Can we maintain the balance?

What is the balance?

Never forget the basics.

Sophistication…

…modelling…

…fine…

…as long as we don’t belly-up into overmodelling.

That’s the thin line that makes us lose sight of our basics.

Can we see it?

Can we steer clear of it?

Yes?

Then we’re going to make money.

Secret Ingredients in Times like Corona

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Hi,

It’s been a while.

Unprecedented times call for every iota of resilience that’s inherent.

Whatever we’ve learnt in the markets is being tested to beyond all levels.

If our learning is solid, we will emerge victorious.

If there are vital chinks in our armour, we will be broken.

Such are the market forces that are prevailing.

Have we learn’t to sit?

Meaning, over all these years, when over-valuation ruled the roost, did we sit?

Did we accumulate funds?

Did we create a sizeable liquid corpus?

If we did, we are kings in this scenario.

One of the main characteristics of a small entry quantum strategy is that it renders us liquidity, almost through and through.

If we are amply liquid in the times of mayhem, there is absent from our armour the debilitating chink of illiquidity.

Illiquidity at the wrong time makes one make drastic mistakes by succumbing to panic.

We’re not succumbing to any panic.

Why?

Because our minds are focused on the bargains available.

The bargains are so mouth-watering, that they are entirely taking away our focus from existing panic.

To twist our psychology into the correct trajectory in a time like Corona, the secret ingredient that’s required is called (ample) liquidity. This secret ingredient is a direct result of the small entry quantum strategy, which we follow. 

Then, let’s address the other potential chink, and just sheer do away with it.

Having access to ample liquidity, are we now greedy?

What does greed mean?

It’s not greedy to buy when there’s blood on the street, no, it’s actually outright courageous. 

Greed Is defined here as per the quantum of buying.

Are we buying disproportionately vis-à-vis our liquidity-size and our risk-profile?

Yes?

Greedy.

No?

Not greedy.

How will we know the answer without any doubt in our mind that we have the correct answer to this question, since it is vital to our learning curve to answer this question correctly?

The answer will make itself felt.

Are we able to sit optimally even if markets crash another double-digit percentage from here?

50% from here?

No? Greedy. We have bought in a manner that doesn’t gel with our risk-profile. Our liquidity is exhausting, and focus shifts from bargains to panic. Ensuing tension amidst further fall will very probably cause us to commit a grave blunder, with this happening very probably at the bottom of the market. We are poised to lose in the markets like this. 

Yes? Not greedy. We have bought and continue to buy as per our risk-profile. We will win…

…in the markets.

The secret ingredient that locks in great prices and continues to do so as the market keeps falling, is called quantum-control as per the tolerance level of our risk-profile towards further fall. This secret ingredient ensures that liquidity outlasts a longish fall, keeping our focus on the bargains and not on the panic. This secret ingredient provides for the basic mechanism of our small entry quantum strategy.

Making Time Work For You

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Imagine…

…entering into a stock…

…many, many times.

When would you do that?

When your research is solid, …

… when you’re amply liquid, …

… and of course when the stock keeps giving you margin of safety to enter for a longish period of time.

There’s no excuse for not doing solid research. 

It’s a given.

Research – solid – period.

How do you render yourself amply liquid?

You do this for example by following a small entry quantum strategy. 

Let’s have a look at one advantage that springs up in particular. 

You become an expert in the stock you are entering into again and again. 

You know its nuances over time.

You start getting a hang of its overpricing, underpricing, par value, good results, bad results, and what have you. 

You’re in it till you’re convinced about it, sure. 

While you’re in it, you’ve developed an expertise on it.

You’ll take that, right?

Sure. 

What exactly have you done?

You’ve made time work in your favour.

First up, staying invested in a fundamentally sound stock over a long period of time should give you a good return.

Then, repeated interaction over the passage of time gives you expertise. 

Double-shot, please!

🙂

Listening to Time

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Market work…

…has some eccentricities.

One can’t work in the markets all the time.

That’s normal, right?

Well, yes and no. 

At a place of work, one should be able to work. 

Markets don’t always allow work.

So don’t other work places, sure. 

At other times, you don’t feel like doing market work. 

Aha. 

This happens multiple time a year. 

What do we do here?

We create an environment that incorporates this eventuality seamlessly. 

First up, why is this incorporation essential?

Let’s assume that we need to work in the markets all the time. 

When we don’t feel like, and we have to, well, then, we are likely to make mistakes. 

Read mistakes as losses. 

Mistakes in the market translate into losses. 

(Amongst other things), we are in the markets to …

… minimize losses. 

Therefore, when we don’t feel like doing market work …

… we just sheer don’t do it. 

So, back to square one, how do we incorporate this seamlessly?

By making market work our secondary source of income.

Our basic income needs to be sorted through our primary source. 

Now, we can shut off the markets at will without this affecting our basic income. Whether we can also emotionally detach is a discussion for another day. 

There are times when one just doesn’t feel like opening up the terminal. 

Listen to such times. 

Shut out the markets at will…

…only to open them up again when they’re a go for you.

We’re still at step 1, which you’ve just cleared for yourself. 

Now we try and gauge whether times are such that markets allow work.

Listen to such times. 

When you feel like working and markets allow you to work, go all out. Exhaust existing work potential. 

When you feel like working, and markets don’t allow work, do other stuff. Get your research ready. Become poised. 

Sooner than later, your action criteria will be met…

…and you will be able to act. 

Uff, sometimes it’s so boring, that…

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…you find yourselves asking,…

…was that it?

Aha. 

Need I remind you, that this is very good indeed?

You want your strategy to become to streamlined, that it’s outright sheer damn boring. 

That’s exactly when the strategy will perform.

Thrill-seekers have a video-game experience of the markets and then burn out. 

You will go on and on with your boring strategy. 

What does this mean for your time?

You’ve got something streamlined, so you’ve got time on your hands. 

Twiddle your thumbs, or do something new. 

I’ll take new. 

I’d go for another strategy. 

Approach another market. 

Anything that attracts you. 

Develop something in that market. 

Make sure there’s no overlap between your markets. 

Why?

When you wind up the day’s input for a market, you want to be exactly there, i.e. wound up with that market. 

Entering the other market is something fresh for you. 

You look forward to it. 

Why exactly?

Because of no overlap with something you’re done with for the day. 

Slowly, get a few strategies going, such that your working day is taken care of. 

This is how you proceed with a market.

Enter-do-exit. Done.

Next market.

Enter-do-exit. Done.

And next market. 

Once you’re done with a market for the day, only look at it the next day. 

This way you’ll stay fresh, and your time and energy won’t be exhausted by hourly nitty-gritties. 

Once done with all your markets for the day, do other stuff in life. 

Non-market stuff.

Like cultivation of hobbies, spending family-time, sport, meditation, chanting, reading, what have you. 

Do full justice to life. 

The Difference between Winning and Losing

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It’s a whisker. 

You’re doing everything right. 

You’re following a proven strategy. 

You’ve adapted. 

You’ve removed many mistakes from your resumé.

Your strategy has undergone refinement. 

Why haven’t you started winning yet?

Yeah, we’re used to asking million dollar questions by now. 

In fact, such questions are all we ever ask. 

What do you think is the answer?

The answer is you. 

Yes. 

There’s something about you. 

It’s not fitting. 

You’ve got two options. 

Either make your strategy fit to this something, or …

… make yourself fit to the strategy. 

Both options can work, and you can start winning. 

Which option is easier to implement?

I think the more relevant question here is a different one. 

Which option befits the situation?

I’ll give you an example. 

I’ve got time issues. 

I make my market strategies fit my time issues. 

I can’t change my time issues, for something or someone will fall short then. Like everyone, I have many commitments too. 

Therefore, I fit my market strategy around me. 

I keep fitting, fitting, fitting, till the strategy either works, or is discarded for want of a win. 

Yeah, that’s me. 

Maybe your situation is different. 

Maybe you need to cater to the public. 

You’re not expecting the public to change to your whims and fancies, are you?

Not as a newbie, no no, that would be a cardinal sin. 

After all, the public is your paymaster, right?

Customer is your king, or queen. 

It becomes different when you turn into a celeb. 

Then you can dictate fashion. 

However, till you become a celeb, fit to the public, if you want to win. 

Behave in a manner that people want to pay for what you have to offer, again and again and again.

Maybe there’s a slight whisker of a trait in your behaviour that people don’t like. 

Change it. 

Whether you’re changing yourself, or fitting your strategy to meet your unchangeable nature or schedule, sometimes it’s only a whisker that makes the difference between winning and losing. 

People have lost olympic medals by one-hundredth of a second. 

What’s that millisecond lag in your own life that you need to get rid of?

Sheer Moat Investing is not Antifragile 

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There we go again. 

That word. 

It’s not going to leave us. 

Nicholas Nassim Taleb has coined together what is possibly the market-word of the century. 

Antifragile. 

We’re equity-people. 

We want to remain so. 

We don’t wish to desert equity just because it is a fragile asset-class by itself. 

No. 

We wish to make our equity-foray as antifragile as possible. 

First-up, we need to understand, that when panic sets in, everything falls. 

The fearful weak hand doesn’t differentiate between a gem and a donkey-stock. He or she just sells and sells alike. 

Second-up, we need to comprehend that this is the age of shocks. There will be shocks. Shock after shock after shock. Such are the times. Please acknowledge this, and digest it. 

To make our equity-play antifragile, we’ll need to incorporate solid strategies to account for above two facts. 

We love moats, right? 

No problem. 

We’ll keep our moats. 

Just wait for moat-stocks to show value. Then, we’ll pick them up. 

We go in during the aftermath of a shock. Otherwise, we don’t. 

We go in with small quanta. Time after time after time. 

Voila. 

We’re  already sufficiently antifragile. 

No magic. 

Just sheer common sense. 

We’re still buying quality stocks. 

We’re buying them when they’re not fragile, or lesser fragile. 

We’re going in each time with minute quanta such that the absence of these quanta (after they’ve gone in) doesn’t alter our financial lives. We’re saving the rest of our pickled corpus for the next shock, after which the gem-stock will be yet lesser fragile. 

Yes, we’re averaging down, only because we’re dealing with gems. We’ll never average down with donkey-stocks. We might trade these, averaging up. We won’t be investing in them. 

Thus, we asymptotically approach antifragility in a gem-stock. 

Over time, after many cycles, the antifragile bottom-level of the gem-stock should be moving significantly upwards. 

Gem-stock upon gem-stock upon gem-stock. 

We’re done already. 

Let It Come To You

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Don’t run after the investment.

Let it come to you.

Let it breathe down your neck.

You’re not hungry for it…

…but, if it’s that good…

… you might take it.

Let it reveal its hidden goodness.

Let it ignite your curiosity to look for even more than basic goodness in the investment.

Play a passive-then-active role.

Some call this the sweet spot.

I call it the sweetest spot…

… which you really want to be in, in the world of investing.

Yeah, don’t be in a hurry.

Hurry spoils the curry.

Take your time, to the extent that…

… take time out of the equation.

Give your money the best possible chance…

… to make loads more.

Deciding to Invest?

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An investment opportunity comes along.

How do you react?

This is how I react.

First up, funds. Do I have clear funds to invest? No? Forget it, obviously.

Funds – maybe? Meaning, if I do some wangling around, fund demand could be met? Ok, move on to next step before taking a decision on the wangling.

Funds – clear – yes? Next step by default, but I’m telling myself that I’m not letting these hard-earned funds go just like that. The opportunity will need to clear my scrutiny. Period.

Then – time? Do I have 15 clear days to conduct deep due diligence.

No? Forget it. I may be travelling. Some event might occupy my time and mind. No time – no investment. Period.

Yes? Ok. Next step.

Energy? Due diligence is exhausting. I need energy reserves. My body and mind tell me. If they’re up to it, I’ll know. If not, the sheer idea of due diligence at that point will make me want to puke. Such is the power of mind and body to convey a message. No energy means improper due diligence. Not happening. No investment.

Yes for energy? Body is alive. Mind is alert. Moving to next step.

Due diligence. Digging deep buddy. I’m going to get under their skin. I’ll pick out their lie. I’m going places they won’t imagine I could get to. The internet is my oyster. We’ve never had it so good wrt information flow and disclosure. I start digging, and get so engrossed, that I forget about time.

Due diligence scrutiny check block oblique spoiler alert oblique deal-breaker? Could be an uncovered lie. Recently I discovered 100% pledging in a company, with everything else ok. Could be any dirt or its tracks. No investment.

Due diligence cleared. Go back to funds – maybe. Bring out mental weighing scale. Is the investment so worth it that I’ll wangle fund demand?

No? No investment.

Yes? Next step.

Think clearly. Very hard earned funds are about to go away for a while. What does the sum total of my everything tell me?

No? For whatever reason. I don’t question my sum total. No investment.

Yes?

Investment.

Happy investing! 🙂

Making it Count

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You’re playing a big one.

What’s foremost?

Make it count. For heaven’s sake.

Why?

Big plays don’t come too often. When they do, you have to catch them. You need to have energy left, to play. Then you just go all the way. Till the play plays itself out.

Life is an accumulation of knicks and knacks.

At first, you don’t know what you’re good for.

When you do know it, you start out as a net-net loser in whatever you’re good for, because every rookie needs to pay tuition fees. These are the costs of your mistakes.

Then you start getting the hang of something you’re naturally good at. Tricks of the trade – you learn them. You succeed in making your activity applicable, perhaps even financially viable.

Next step is to scale up.

You need to make your successful model count. Period.

Tired? Want to do other things? Need to borrow? Too big a pain? Time-issues? Overdose? Bureaucracy?

Whatever.

Don’t lessen the flow. Hold on. Ask the Universe for reserves. See the play through.

One life can mean just a few big plays.

When you’ve latched onto one, and have set it up so beautifully, now’s the time make it count.

Best of luck!

🙂

A Secret Ingredient for Equity-People

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Racking your brain about how to make Equity work?

Don’t.

Two words work here. 

Be passive. 

Learn to sit. 

Let’s say you’ve gotten all your basics right.

Company is great. Management is sound. Multiple is low. Debt is nil. Model looks promising. Yield is note-worthy. Technicals allow entry, blah blah blah…

Then what?

Yeah, be still. Learn to sit. 

What are the prequisites for sitting?

You need to not need the stash you’ve put in, at least for a long while. 

You also need to get your investment out of your primary focus. 

For that, your day needs to be full…of other main-frame activities. 

Make Equity a bonus for yourself, not a main-course. That’s how it’ll work for you. That’s the secret ingredient. 

How to… … is stated above.

Why to? Aha.

For it to work, fine, but why the sleeping partner approach?

Human capital needs time to show results. 

That’s why you’re in Equity, right, for human capital? The rest is ordinary stuff, but human capital is irreplaceable. Human capital works around inflation. One doesn’t need to say anything more. 

You’ve got your work all cut out.

Get going, what are you waiting for?