2050

Hey,

There’s a Street View… ,

… , and then there’s a street view.

I rely on…

…my street view.

Making it a point not to heed that the Street thinks, I repeatedly look for micro and macro signs on my street.

My street is where I am.

I mostly spend my time in my own country.

And, my street view is one of staggered growth.

There’s development…

…with holdups waiting to happen out of nowhere, and often.

That’s India, for me.

Am I going to cry?

I scream, actually, at apathy prevailing, but from the inside. To no avail. At one point the screaming stops. The only thing remains is to take advantage. I’ll make it up for India. Part of the money earned will go towards a private initiative towards my country’s development. So, no guilty-conscience here. My country gives me repeated opportunities. Why should I not take them? India does give me grief too. It’s ok. I love my country. We both can take liberties with each other, as do parents and children between themselves.

Owing to our attitudinal coordinates, our country is full of bottlenecks, and these bring a rising entity down, regularly.

Apart from that we’re emotional.

Over-emotional, actually.

So what’s going down goes down by an unhealthy multiple.

Activation.

Chart Pattern?

Numbers talking to you?

Method.

System development.

Pinpoint.

Enter.

Sizably.

Making size a function of portfolio magnitude.

When something here rises, one lets it ride with a stop that eventually triggers, then trails.

One never books a winner fully in India. Not in this bull market.

Billion dollar strategy.

One first goes cost-free.

And then some.

After one’s in-the-profit stop is triggered and then hit, one takes one’s principal out, with which one will fight the next battle, the next quest for cost-free-ness.

One leaves one’s cost-free-ness created on the table and shifts if out of sight and out of mind.

One’s cost-free-ness can be held for a long, long time.

Till 2050?

Yes, if the underlying has been duly whetted for a 2050 hold.

That’s how we play India.

Till 2050.

Banana Trajectory

Growth …

… is a non-linear entity.

Especially…

… high growth.

Amongst many things, …

… one point needs …

… pointing out.

Between periods of high growth…

… anything can happen.

The levels of what can happen are, amongst other correlations, directly proportionate to the number of similarities between an economy in question and the functioning of a proper banana republic.

Freedom of speech can be suppressed.

Parallel economies can thrive.

Extortion and blackmail can rule.

Genocide.

Landgrab.

Terrorism.

People buyouts.

Apathy.

Dysfunctionality.

And then there’s high growth again, perhaps soon, if the economy gets its act together despite its rulers, and perhaps accelerated, if the rulers come to their senses and return back to being peace, growth and democracy loving .

Without getting into what kind of a republic we live in, for lack of a better phrase, and with a very small use of one’s imagination, one could venture to suggest that our own path of growth could resemble that of a banana trajectory.

The banana in this title doesn’t have much to do with the curvature of the fruit.

Much rather, it’s about the economy to banana republic correlation.

Might I suggest that our economy’s banana behaviour is mostly mild. Then, rarely, it gets intense. Normal growth returns. Then comes high growth. Periods of very high growth are rare, but there too.

Overall I’m happy with my and in my republic.

Sometimes, its banana behaviour beats me up.

Yeah, every ten years or so, there’s a big hit.

No one likes getting hurt.

I do remember to stand up and continue fighting, …

… because it is in this very republic, that I can make my 15% p.a.c.

On the conservative side, that is. Perhaps I can make more.

I don’t get that in any other economy.

You see, occasional banana behaviour is good news for a long term contrarian.

Banananomics lead to blunders, and temporary downfalls, with all indices falling big.

Which is where we have the guts to buy, and big.

Why?

We know we are on a high growth trajectory with intermittent banana behaviour.

A very simple formula suggests itself.

Buy big during reactions to banana behaviour.

Take principle out after spurts of high growth.

Sit tight on underlying in profit, perhaps for life.

A high growth trajectory with intermittent banana behaviour will give you many such cycles in your lifetime.

One stands to make multiple times the ten-yearly hits.

Upon recognising this recurring pattern, one can even fine-tune and enhance loss-attenuation.

🙂

Approach

Markets speak.

Can we hear them?

Do we know their language?

We are not born knowing their language.

We learn.

Their’s is not a normal language.

It keeps changing…

…till it’s similar to the past…

…and then it changes again…

…to throw us off-track.

We need to keep adapting.

Every corner could be a new one, with a new sign.

Feel the challenge?

The thrill upon attempting to decipher?

Do you feel fulfilled?

Well, if yes, then you’ve met your calling.

Congratulations.

Now sustain.

Play out your full market journey. Enjoy it. Win.

How?

Since every corner could be a new one, every corner needs to be approached with a what-if-plan.

Simultaneously, one is on the lookout for signs.

What signs?

Similarities, in patterns, psychology, chronology, feel, levels, anything.

Have you seen this before?

What happened last time?

Approach with multiple scenario what-if.

What if you haven’t seen current signs on offer?

Carve out the situation.

Create scenarios.

Build a what if for each scenario.

Approach.

Notice something?

Whether one has seen something before, or not, the approach is basically the same.

Great.

We’ll not bother with getting spooked out.

We just keep tapping the markets, armed with a play-out strategy for each unfolding scenario.

Our approach is designed such that we sustain till the end of our market journey and beyond.

We keep intact our health, family life, and our corpus.

We keep sharpening our edge, and keep attempting lucrative reward risk scenarios.

We learn to take our stop.

We learn to let runners run till logical exits appear.

We learn to establish and enjoy a life beyond markets.

Wishing all market success and happiness.

🙂

Shareware – When Everyone has Access

Hmmmm…

…what is…

…and what isn’t?

Is technical analysis 1.0.1 still valid?

Why has this question arisen?

What is it about shareware?

Basics never go away.

One always falls back to basics.

Having said that, basics can be made to appear a certain way.

Why?

So that a newbie recognizes a pattern and acts.

Does that render the shareware useless?

NO.

One learns how to use shareware.

Combining a basic candlestick pattern with volume and open interest, for example…

…renders the shareware back as useful.

However, we are now moving in the sphere of technical analysis 1.0.2+ .

Moral of the story?

Don’t believe what basic shareware is telling you as is.

Back up your observation with multiple factors.

Aligning combinations?

Sector behaviour?

Broader market?

Market rhythm?

Cycle?

Domestic sentiment?

International what have we-s?

Psychology at play?

Get a feel for the goings-on.

It’s ok to pay for market software and set it up with multiple edges, rather than use plain vanilla free- or shareware.

Why?

Edges…

…translate into money.

Even an alert is an edge.

20 alerts are 20 edges.

Freeware not allowing any alerts?

Well, rethink, Mr. Scrooge.

Spend on quality, to make multiples later.

Let’s get out of the freebie mentality…

…since we wish to strike it big with the markets.

Wishing all lucrative market play!

🙂