Category Archives: Alerts

Chronology

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Pipelines…

…come at a cost.

And, first up, there’s no need to fret about this cost.

I know, it pinches.

Having funds at a 20 second disposal will definitely cost.

Why go this extra, extra mile?

That’s a very befitting question.

We are not mad to create pipelines on call within 20 seconds.

Well, just to give you a heads up about how things can go down, here’s something.

June 4th, India, markets tank in the first hour.

Alerts, GTDs, GTTs, what-have-yous trigger.

I’m busy. Business meeting. Can’t get away.

6 of 7 GTTs in place get hit, and I’m in on these 6 scrips, at my price. 7th gets hit. No entry. No more funds in purchase account reported.

As meeting leader delivers on taxation laws in the country, there’s regret in my mind. Why did I not have enough funds in place?

Idea.

Let’s slimily look busy, and, meanwhile, activate a pipeline, put funds in place, and forcefully enter this particular scrip at CMP.

“Could you please pay attention, Mr. Nath, and put your phone away!”

Yikes.

Meeting ends (phew).

Action stations. Funds in place. Yes.

But what have we here?

Scrip’s showing a huge pin, and live daily candle has become a hammer. Bottomed out and then some, has the scrip. CMP is now 11% above the bottom.

Chickening out.

11% shaved off my margin of safety, in 45 minutes.

Yes people, that’s the window nowadays, for getting dream entries.

45 minutes.

Had it not been for the meeting, I would have been in within a minute or two, after reading the alert that GTT got triggered but no funds were available.

Lost time in this case would have been the interval between reading messages, plus a minute or two to have funds in place and go through with the buy. I’m not very regular about messages, though, perhaps on purpose, and 30 minute plus periods can well elapse. So, window cuts very fine. Idea is, whenever awareness kicks in, one needs to be in within a minute or two, if the GTT option has failed to deliver due to whatever reason.

The case described above was the one time that did not work, despite having everything of the highest quality in place.

What puts salt on the wounds is that the scrip quasi doubled from there within three months, so those lost 11% on margin of safety were peanuts. Yeah, the final fail was my fearful mind.

Painfulllllll….

That’s how it crumbles. One learns from the pain.

No pain, no learning.

My learning from this is that when GTT limit is 5.2% below CMP, we just sheer put funds in place for that GTT…

…now.

Discerners

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Hey,

We learn…

…to discern.

Primarily, what we’re looking out for…

…is a real deal…

…amidst noise.

To reiterate, we need to know the difference between noise and situations we must act upon.

The thing about noise is, …

…it’s messy.

It’s not difficult to recognize the stalky forest of noise.

However, sometimes, …

…one has trouble seeing the forest for the trees.

One needs to give noise space.

View it from a distance.

Hands-off.

For a while.

One will know it’s noise.

Situations requiring action are much clearer.

Mostly we pre-define them.

When our definition is hit, we get alerted.

Then we act.

We’ve taken any fear out of our action by mentally preparing ourselves by the time the action situation arrives.

Sometimes, situations develop very fast.

There’s been no pre-definition.

This is where we are tested.

Are we there to see the fast situation unfolding?

Mostly not.

The solution to this is to pre-empt lucrative scenarios and feed in good till triggered (GTT) orders.

These remain in the system for one year on some platforms.

If we’ve been lazy and haven’t fed in our GTTs, we need to recognize an unfolding situation.

Most have that capability.

Most are also afraid.

Can we quickly eliminate fear and act?

Those who can win big over a large sample size.

Opportunity

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Knock knock.

Nobody home.

See you, bye. Maybe never.

Knock knock.

Come in.

This is the requirement.

No funds.

Bye.

Knock knock.

Hey. Funds not a problem.

Guts?

What if I lose?

Bye.

Knock knock.

I wish to invest and the risk is digestible.

Ok. Pull the trigger.

Should we wait for a better price?

Bye.

Knock knock.

Let’s pull the trigger.

Ok.

There.

Bye.

Hey, it’s been a month and I’m up 10%. Let’s cash out.

Ok. Bye.

Knock knock.

This time I’ll let my profit run. The last one doubled in 6 months, but I’d cashed out after a minuscule rise.

So you’ve learnt how to sit?

I keep a lookout for you. If I’m not home I get alerted to your presence, so that I can act in time.

Then, I always maintain ample liquidity for you.

The amounts I put in make my risk digestible, looking at the total size of my portfolio and liquidity.

Once you knock, I’m not afraid to pull the trigger anymore.

I’ve learnt to let multibaggers develop. I don’t nip them in the bud anymore.

Wonderful. Now add cost-free-ness to your repertoire.

Why?

It’ll trick your mind into holding your multibagger eternally, so that it is given the chance of becoming a megabagger.

Will do, thanks, cost-free-ness won’t cost me anything, right?

Not a penny.

Shareware – When Everyone has Access

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Hmmmm…

…what is…

…and what isn’t?

Is technical analysis 1.0.1 still valid?

Why has this question arisen?

What is it about shareware?

Basics never go away.

One always falls back to basics.

Having said that, basics can be made to appear a certain way.

Why?

So that a newbie recognizes a pattern and acts.

Does that render the shareware useless?

NO.

One learns how to use shareware.

Combining a basic candlestick pattern with volume and open interest, for example…

…renders the shareware back as useful.

However, we are now moving in the sphere of technical analysis 1.0.2+ .

Moral of the story?

Don’t believe what basic shareware is telling you as is.

Back up your observation with multiple factors.

Aligning combinations?

Sector behaviour?

Broader market?

Market rhythm?

Cycle?

Domestic sentiment?

International what have we-s?

Psychology at play?

Get a feel for the goings-on.

It’s ok to pay for market software and set it up with multiple edges, rather than use plain vanilla free- or shareware.

Why?

Edges…

…translate into money.

Even an alert is an edge.

20 alerts are 20 edges.

Freeware not allowing any alerts?

Well, rethink, Mr. Scrooge.

Spend on quality, to make multiples later.

Let’s get out of the freebie mentality…

…since we wish to strike it big with the markets.

Wishing all lucrative market play!

🙂

Walking on the Moon?

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giant steps are what you take
walking on the moon
i hope my legs don’t break
walking on the moon

Don’t know how old this song is.

There was the version from Sting, or perhaps The Police.

Heard another jazz version of the song on internet radio the other day.

Got me thinking.

We all do. Walk on the Moon, that is.

The Moon stands for something undiscovered.

Each human is unique.

Our next moments are undiscovered, yet.

We live them in our own way.

Yeah, we walk on the Moon, each day, every new moment.

Even in uncharted territory, one wants a smooth walk, doesn’t one?

There are three steps that ensure this.

1). Proper due diligence.

2). Smelling liability from a distance.

3). Walking the other way, away from liability.

Even a donkey understands what’s written above.

Enjoy your walk, on your Moon, on your own personal journey.

The lyricist has penned it aptly. He or she knows about giant steps, so due diligence has been done. He or she hopes that his or her “legs don’t break”,  so he or she is alert that liability could be lurking.

Yeah, above three steps, people.

How Will I Know?

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What?

How will I know what?

Well, what do you think?

How will I know if I’m on the right track…? !!

I’m sure you have asked this question…many times. 

If not, you need to.

Why?

You’ve realised that you’re your most reliable source.

You know you.

Therefore, you need to ask this question… to yourself.

This is the marketplace, not some low-stakes video-game parlour.

Lives and futures hang on your decisions.

Make these the right decisions.

How will you know you are on the right track?

It’s quite simple, really. 

Once you’ve heard the answer, you’ll probably go in denial. 

You’ll probably say, naehhhh, this can’t be it.

Believe me please, it is. What’s totally simple need not be worthless. In fact, the best ideas in the world are…simple. 

You’ll know. 

You’ll feel right. 

There’ll be a sense of satisfaction. You’ll feel comfortable. 

Your mind will be sorted. It will make the body feel at ease with an endorphin burst. 

That’s how you’ll know. 

It’s that simple. 

Take the wrong decision, and the opposite things will be happening. Try it out. Trust your reflexes. 

Learn to rely on yourself. 

This is the marketplace we’re talking about…

…where…

…you’re on your own. 

Taking the Pan out of Panic

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Panic – Pan = ic = i see = I SEE.

Times are unprecedented.

We’re breaking new lows of evil everyday.

Ours looks to be a hopeless nation.
Is it over for us?

Shall we pack up our bags and migrate?

Just take a deep breath. Bear with me for a moment. Try and cast your panic aside. Try and think clearly.

I’ll share with you an observation. Take any Indian. Doesn’t have to be an outperformer. Take an under-averagely performing Indian, for all I care. Weed him or her out of our pathetic system, and place him or her in a nation with good governance.

Lo and behold, our candidate will start performing. Not only that, soon, he or she will be outperforming. After a decade or so, he or she will probably have mastered the system and punctuated it with innovative short-cuts.

Get my point?

We are a resilient race. We might look fickle, frail and harmless superficially, but we can struggle, bear, survive, and finally break out. Just give us good governance.
Don’t panic. We’re not going down that easily.

What’s happening currently is a purge. Yeah, it’s a catharsis with a big C. While it continues, asset classes across the board will probably get hammered.

What does that mean for you?

Only one thing.

Stay in cash. Accumulate it. Learn to sit on cash. Sit on it as long as the purge lasts. Let its value depreciate, doesn’t matter. Park it safely with a conservative private bank. Fixed deposits would be the instruments of choice. Yeah, you don’t want to leave unattached cash lying around. Potentially, unattached cash could be susceptible to online fraud. Attach your cash, safely, and keep it before your eyes. Put some watch-dogs in place, as in sms and email alerts. Password-change attempt? You are immediately alerted. New payee added? You are immediately alerted. Watch-dogs bark.

As per my instinct, though we probably won’t go bankrupt as a nation, we might just go a long way down before the purge is over. After the purge, there will be tremendous bargains on offer, across the board, in all asset-classes. Cash will be king. Save your cash and sit on it – for that day.

Meanwhile, your wealth-manager will try to push you into panic purchases with your cash. As in, buying gold at 32k, and the USD at 65. Don’t listen. These are crazy levels. One doesn’t invest at crazy levels. These are not even normal trading levels. Yes, they are institutional trading levels. One does not invest at institutional trading levels.

It’s time to use your common-sense and maintain a cool head.

You can only do that by refusing to panic.