Noise Diaries

When something is a given, ….

…one just sheer deals with it.

And that something just got so much louder.

For example, social media is screaming with that something, i.e. …

… noise.

However, noise…

… has value.

One needs to know what’s being floated among the masses.

Furthermore, it’s helpful to gauge the decibel level.

If we look at the current scenario, everyone and their Aunty are yelling “Craaassshhhhhh…!” Dollar, bonds, gold silver, stocks, real-estate…

…everything’s supposed to “Craaassshhhhhhh!”

Fine.

Keep shouting.

At least we get an idea about the script and the concerned noise-level.

Is it supposed to scare us?

Yes.

Are we scared?

NO.

Why not?

Because we’re busy doing exactly what they don’t want us to.

Firstly, who’s ‘they’?

The floaters of the script. You were asking, ya, secondly?

Secondly, what do ‘they’ now NOT want us to do?

Buy cheap, like they are. They want us to let go and sell to them.

Wow.

Ya, it’s the biggest wealth-transfer in the History of mankind, currently unfolding.

Are you then not afraid of a crash, if you are buying now?

No.

Why not?

I’m liquid. If there’s a crash I’ll continue buying, into the crash. My entry quantum is aptly small and a function of my networth, thus allowing me entries for three to five years, upon any signs of reasonable value. Held over the years and bought with a clear head, in a growth market, assets will yield stellar returns.

So you’re saying you’ll cover the crash?

Yes. Timelines move very fast nowadays. Markets, when at all efficient, have become super-efficient, as if trying to prove a point to the level of overkill. When not efficient, they bubble or crash. Super-speed in times of efficiency is a huge bonus for us.

How?

Crashes play out within a shortish time-span. Buying through the crash is over fast. It’s not that when there’s a fire the crash is going to happen after five years. It will happen way sooner than later.

So is that enough time to get your money in, especially with a small entry quantum?

No. That’s why it’s important for small entry quantum cum long-term players like us, crash in, crash out, to keep buying amidst any signs of cheapness caused by fear-mongers creating all this…

…noise!

Exactly! 🙂

Strategy

Reserve currency’s buying power is…

…waning.

Many others, too, have pointed out, that…

…assets…

…quoted in the reserve currency…

…are getting expensive.

Across the board.

If something is happening across the board, is the entire board showing an anomaly, or is it the underlying entity, here the reserve currency, that is behaving differently?

Going for the latter. Gut. Common sense. Fundamentals. Printing. Geopolitical balance of scales.

Diagnosis stands. The only bubble in town is a reserve-currency-bubble.

Doesn’t stop here.

Central governments across the world blindly price, or, rather, mis-price their own currencies in response to movements in the reserve currency. Many governments artificially support levels of their own currencies which are not realistic. Net net, asset markets worldwide are rising. It seems that buying powers of fiat currencies in general is falling. Masses seem to be losing confidence in fiat currencies.

Where does this leave you, financially?

Are you very liquid?

Hmmm, liquidity is losing value. How about moving some of your liquidity into assets of your choice. Look for value, and act where you find it.

However, stay liquid to a comfortable extent, and let some value of that particular liquidity be lost. It’s ok. You’ll make it up and more, in the event of a correction, where you’ll be tanking up on assets of your choice.

There will always be a correction. Period. You need to be at least somewhat liquid, come a correction, and it will.

So, this is what needs to be done.

Identify extra, and movable liquidity.

Look for value.

See if you are comfortable with the asset class offering value.

If yes, move any extra liquidity into the asset offering value, bit by bit.

Tech Bubble please burst

Bubbles burst,…

…like,…

…pendulums swing.

We’ve seen bursts.

We’ve gauged our way through them.

Lucratively.

Why?

We save up…

…for such situations.

Earlier, bursts were rare.

Now, they are common…

…and quick.

That’s great news for us.

What’s the worst that can happen in a tech-bubble burst?

Front-liners can start trading at single-digit valuations.

Mid-tiers can be down 50 to 75%.

Smaller players can lose 90% of their market cap.

When front-liners trade at single digit valuations, we’ll load up on these.

Medium sized tech scrips showed even ten-bagger behaviour lately. Such down-side would be immensely valuable for us, to avail re-entry opportunities.

Coming to small-sized, debt-free tech players with remarkable free cash-flow to market cap ratios, ya, we do own a couple, and ya, we would re-buy.

So, what’s all the hoo-hah?

Bubble bursts, we buy.

Strategy is outlined.

Players are demarcated.

No time for small-talk, chit-chat, or any other non-useful “market-activity”.

Meanwhile, we just keep trading from interim low to interim high in our pursuit for small quanta of cost-free-ness.

Period.

🙂