Category Archives: Common Sense

The Tipping Point

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What is it about tips?

Why do they have that lure? That magnetic effect? That greed-invoking element? That goosebumps-causing energy?

Tips thrive in any market. 

They are given at the drop of a hat. 

The giver feels he or she is doing a favour. The receiver feels obliged. 

What has led to the giver feeling complaecent that he or she has something one his or her hands?

The giver was a receiver, a very short time ago. 

He or she got sucked …

… into the story. 

The story is tempting. 

It builds upon many half-truths and binds them together in such a presentable manner, that one’s defences, if any, are just maimed. 

In comes the tip. 

Off goes the mind, counting the unmade bucks.

In goes the money. 

Mostly, it doesn’t materialize. 

Why?

Tips do the rounds as short-cuts in people’s half-baked minds. 

A short-cut to wealth. 

The 99% here don’t want to do the spade work. They don’t want to get their hands dirty. They want spectacular returns, though, and they want them now. 

That’s the short-circuit. 

Investing is about doing lots of research. You dig. And then some more. It’s about patience. You wait. And then some more. It’s about having a sorted mind, and then going in. It’s a full-time occupation, unless you streamline it so well, that it then goes hand in hand with your other daily activities, and drops into the background like a mantra that keeps resonating with your breath. 

Does one become a brain-surgeon in a few hours?

Do you ask the brain-surgeon to teach you brain surgery in a day?

NO. 

It takes time, study, effort, will-power, finances, mindset, etc. etc. to become a brain-surgeon. 

It takes a lot of similar things to become a successful investor. 

You make yourself into one. 

It’s your effort. 

You don’t become one following tips.

People ask for tips. Daily. It’s a disease. I’m scarcely able to deal with it. I just evade. 

Folks, those who ask for tips are expecting to be made a brain-surgeon in one day. Not happening. It’s a short-circuited way of thinking. Don’t ask for tips. Invest on your own. Do the study. Invest the time and effort. Make mistakes. Become fully baked.

Go for it. 

The whole nine yards. 

Yeah, the whole hog. 

Impedimenting

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Market strategy often sounds ridiculous. 

Take impedimenting for example. 

You put impediments in your own path. 

Absurd?

No. 

Uselful?

Very.

Why?

Because we are human. We are full of behavioural quirks which invariably cause market losses. 

That’s why impediments. 

Where?

In your path?

Why in your path?

Who are these impediments meant for?

They are speed-breakers for your quirks. 

Because your quirks are inside of you, the breakers are in your path, put by you, not for yourself, but for your quirks, when these choose to expose themselves. 

1). One example – money transfer before market entry – there’s no beneficiary added. Ha. You need to add the beneficiary first and wait for it to be approved. Then you transfer money to your other account, which is linked to your transaction account. Impediments. 

Why have you done this? You don’t wish to enter anything on a whim. Whenever money moves, it’s movement should not be made easy. You’ve seen to it. Good. 

2). Example numero two – Calls Blacklist. Make it very difficult for market people to speak to you if you don’t wish to speak to them. Why? Bias. You don’t want their bias. You have limited time. You have your own opinion. Many times during market-play, there’s no room for another opinion. 

3). Doing the DD (due diligence) – don’t act without DD. Make the DD huge. Have steps and procedures which you are going to follow – period. When you shudder at the idea of DD, that’s when DD becomes an impediment. You want the upcoming DD to make you shudder. You don’t wish to enter the underlying on a whim, remember?

4). Don’t discuss your portfolio – with anyone. YOU DON’T WANT ANYONE’S BIAS. You are mentally diligent enough to build your own opinion. People asking for causal tips are going to bother you. You need to impediment your way away from these. 

5). Systems – make systems. Stick to them. They cost time. They are impedimenting. Good. While a system engulfs you, it gets the chance to scour your approach for mistakes. Your system will alert you, so it’s been worth it. 

6). Blockage – new funds are to be blocked for a while. Don’t act with new funds immediately. Give yourself ample time to decide your strategy with new funds. Pickle them away in a fixed deposit till you are sure what you want to do with them. 

Make your own list. Above are just examples, and yeah, there’s more, but double yeah, make your own list. 

Working with self-made speed-breakers to enhance your performance makes you grow. 

Your returns grow too. 

What’s the Next Step?

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Movement is from step to step. 

That’s stable movement. 

During stable movement, one is aware of former step, gap, and latter step. 

Transition is smooth. 

Former step is digested well and moved on from. 

Latter step is taken on with enthusiasm. 

The cycle repeats, so on and so forth. 

Yeah, given above is one question that I ask myself many times a day – What’s the next step?

The next step dawns upon one. 

Mostly, that’s when it’s the correct one. 

It’s coming from depth. 

It’s the Universe speaking.

The Universe tells you the next step, from within you. The Universe is in you. 

Sometimes, you’re not sure. 

Ok, happens. It’s normal. 

Ask, simply. 

Ask the Universe. 

It’ll tell. 

You need to listen to the answer. 

The Universe speaks in many ways. These are subtle ways. You have to be receptive to subtle answers. 

Once you realise what’s the next step, you also feel that – oh, so simple, the answer was staring at me in the face, why didn’t I realise this earlier – or something to that effect. 

The most logical next steps in the world are also the simplest ones. 

We’ve become complicated. We refuse to think simply, till Nature forces us to do so, sometimes causing pain during the cleansing process. 

Think SIMPLE, people. Empty your minds. Let the next step dawn upon you. Let your mind experience that – aha! of course! that’s it! – feeling. 

The most beautiful ideas in the world – are simple ones. 

Walking on the Moon?

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giant steps are what you take
walking on the moon
i hope my legs don’t break
walking on the moon

Don’t know how old this song is.

There was the version from Sting, or perhaps The Police.

Heard another jazz version of the song on internet radio the other day.

Got me thinking.

We all do. Walk on the Moon, that is.

The Moon stands for something undiscovered.

Each human is unique.

Our next moments are undiscovered, yet.

We live them in our own way.

Yeah, we walk on the Moon, each day, every new moment.

Even in uncharted territory, one wants a smooth walk, doesn’t one?

There are three steps that ensure this.

1). Proper due diligence.

2). Smelling liability from a distance.

3). Walking the other way, away from liability.

Even a donkey understands what’s written above.

Enjoy your walk, on your Moon, on your own personal journey.

The lyricist has penned it aptly. He or she knows about giant steps, so due diligence has been done. He or she hopes that his or her “legs don’t break”,  so he or she is alert that liability could be lurking.

Yeah, above three steps, people.

Steps are the New Currency

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Walking walking walking…

… steps.

We’re logging them.

We’re thinking more about them than dollars, pounds, euros or rupees.

How many steps’ve you done today?

And who’s we?

We’s a collective. People who’ve gotten financial basics sorted, but perhaps not health basics. However these people have realized that. Smart.

Why smart?

Simple.

To enjoy one’s financial basics, one’s health basics need to be in place.

Place health before wealth, and you enjoy your wealth.

No health, but wealth, well, then you don’t enjoy your wealth.

We’re also in it for quality of life, right?

Therefore, yeah, treat steps as a very valid currency that gives you the ticket to enjoy other physical currencies and their benefits.

Logged 10k for the day yet? Or 15k?

Yeah? Super.

No? Why not? What are you waiting for? Step up, buddy!

Deciding to Invest?

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An investment opportunity comes along.

How do you react?

This is how I react.

First up, funds. Do I have clear funds to invest? No? Forget it, obviously.

Funds – maybe? Meaning, if I do some wangling around, fund demand could be met? Ok, move on to next step before taking a decision on the wangling.

Funds – clear – yes? Next step by default, but I’m telling myself that I’m not letting these hard-earned funds go just like that. The opportunity will need to clear my scrutiny. Period.

Then – time? Do I have 15 clear days to conduct deep due diligence.

No? Forget it. I may be travelling. Some event might occupy my time and mind. No time – no investment. Period.

Yes? Ok. Next step.

Energy? Due diligence is exhausting. I need energy reserves. My body and mind tell me. If they’re up to it, I’ll know. If not, the sheer idea of due diligence at that point will make me want to puke. Such is the power of mind and body to convey a message. No energy means improper due diligence. Not happening. No investment.

Yes for energy? Body is alive. Mind is alert. Moving to next step.

Due diligence. Digging deep buddy. I’m going to get under their skin. I’ll pick out their lie. I’m going places they won’t imagine I could get to. The internet is my oyster. We’ve never had it so good wrt information flow and disclosure. I start digging, and get so engrossed, that I forget about time.

Due diligence scrutiny check block oblique spoiler alert oblique deal-breaker? Could be an uncovered lie. Recently I discovered 100% pledging in a company, with everything else ok. Could be any dirt or its tracks. No investment.

Due diligence cleared. Go back to funds – maybe. Bring out mental weighing scale. Is the investment so worth it that I’ll wangle fund demand?

No? No investment.

Yes? Next step.

Think clearly. Very hard earned funds are about to go away for a while. What does the sum total of my everything tell me?

No? For whatever reason. I don’t question my sum total. No investment.

Yes?

Investment.

Happy investing! 🙂

You, and Your Purpose

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Who are you?

Yeah, that question again…

Frankly, I’m not too bothered about who you are.

Yeah, I’m too busy trying to fathom who I am.

Guess who needs to be concerned about finding out who you are?

You!

Nobody else.

In addition to “Who are you?”, here’s another one that goes with the flow…

Where do you fit?

Not stopping…

What’s your purpose?

Yeah, why are you here?

What drives you?

Where do you start?

And sure, where do you stop?

What’s the gauge? How do you gauge where you stand with all these questions and their answers.

Luckily for you, Nature hid this gauge inside you.

Connect please.

You’ll feel… comfortable where you fit.

You’ll know where to start. When to stop. From inside. Below all the huff and puff, in the stillness of mind, lie answers. Find them. Talk to yourself. It’s not crazy to talk to yourself. In fact, those who don’t are crazy.

Where you’re happy doing stuff lies your purpose. That which causes maximum happiness and satisfaction, in you and around you – that’s your purpose.

Your behavior in multiple situations tells you who you are.

Align who you are with your purpose.

Once you know who you are, you can go about defining and delineating your risk-profile.

The Valuation Game

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Value is a magic word. 

Ears stand up. 

Where is value?

Big, big question. 

Medium term investors look for growth. 

Long-termers invariably look for value. 

How do you value a stock?

There are many ways to do that. 

Here, we are just going to talk about basics today.

For example, price divided by earnings allows us to compare Company A to Company B, irrespective of their pricing.

Why isn’t the price enough for such a comparison?

Meaning, why can’t you just compare the price of an Infosys to that of a Geometric and conclude whatever you have to conclude?

Nope. 

That would be like comparing an apple with an orange. 

Reason is, that the number of shares outstanding for each company are different. Thus, the value of anything per share is gotten by dividing the grand total of this anything-entity by the number of outstanding shares that the company has issued. For example, one talks of earnings per share in the markets. One divides the total earnings of a company by the total number of outstanding shares to arrive at earnings per share, or EPS. 

Now, we get investor perception and discovery into the game. How does the public perceive the prospects of the company? How high or low do they bid it? How much have they discovered it? Or not discovered it? This information is contained in the price. 

So, we take all this information contained in the price, and divide it by the earnings per share, and we arrive at the price to earnings ratio, or P/E, or just PE. 

Yeah, we now have a scale to judge the value of stocks. 

Is this scale flawed?

Yeah. 

A stock with a high PE could have massive discovery and investor confidence behind it, or, it could just have very low earnings. When the denominator of a fraction is low, the value of the fraction is “high”. You have to use your common-sense and see what is applying. 

A stock with a low PE could have low price, high earnings, or both. It could have a high price and high earnings.  The low PE could also just be a result of lack of discovery, reflected in a low price despite healthy earnings. Or, the low PE could be because of a low price due to rejection. What is applying? That’s for you to know. 

At best, the PE is ambiguous. Your senses have to be sharp. You have to dig deeper to gauge value. The PE alone is not enough. 

Now let’s add a technical consideration. One sees strong fundamental value in a company, let’s say. For whatever reason. How does one gauge discovery, rejection or what have you in one snapshot? Look at the 5-year chart of the stock, for heaven’s sake. 

You’ll see rejection, if it is there. You’ll understand when it is not rejection, because rejection goes with sell-offs. Lack of discovery means low volumes and less pumping up of the price despite strong fundamentals. You’ll see buying pressure in the chart. That’s smart money making the inroads. Selling pressure means rejection. You’ll be able to gauge all this from the chart. 

Here are some avenues to look for value :

 

– price divided by earnings per share,

– price divided by book-value per share,

– price divided by cash-flow per share,

– price divided by dividend-yield per share,

– in today’s world, accomplishment along with low-debt is a high-value commodity, so look for a low debt to equity ratio,

– look for high return on equity coupled with low debt – one wants a company that performs well without needing to borrow, that’s high value,

– absence of red-flags are high value, so you’re looking for the absence of factors like pledging by the promoters, creative accounting, flambuoyance, 

– you are looking for value in the 5-year chart, by gauging the chart-structure for lack of discovery in the face of strong fundamentals. 

 

We can go on, but then we won’t remain basic any more. Basically, look for margin of safety in any form. 

Yeah, you don’t buy a stock just like that for the long-term. There’s lots that goes with your purchase. Ample and diligent research is one thing. 

Patience to see the chart correct so that you have your proper valuations is another. 

Here’s wishing you both!

🙂

 

Are There amy WMDs in the Markets?

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What’s a weapon of mass destruction in the markets?

Well, practically anything that the masses don’t know much about, and are being handed on a platter in a repackaged form, to savour. 

Sure, I’m using one of Warren Buffett’s analogies here. Loosely requoted, Buffett once warned, that futures and options were weapons of mass destruction (in the hands of those masses, who didn’t know much about them, but still used them). 

Yeah, I will stand upon the shoulders of giants if required. 

As long as I quote them, I’m good. 

The view from their shoulders let’s one think from a height. That’s an ideal situation for fresh thinking. 

Supposing something new comes up. That would be a contribution from my side. And why would it have happened? Because I took the liberty to stand upon the shoulders of giants. 

Bottomline is, that everything can be classified as a WMD if one is handling it and doesn’t know much about it. 

Equity is a WMD for newbies. For someone who spends many hours a day for many years, delving into Equity, the scene can be quite different. 

Rome wan’t built in a day. 

You don’t become a PhD in a day. 

You can’t master Equity in a day. 

Or anything else, for that matter. 

Do your homework. 

Put in the hours and the years. 

Burn the oil. 

Take what you do seriously. Not casually. If you’re casual about any professional line, drop it now, or start pursuing it seriously. 

Why do you want to give something the power to become a weapon of destruction?

You don’t. Period. 

Whose Game Are You Playing?

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Are you playing your game?

No?

Why not?

Why do you play someone else’s game?

Do you think that’s going to make you happy?

Just for the record, working for someone doesn’t necessarily mean you’re playing that someone’s game. You’re walking a common path with someone. Could be your boss. Spouse. Parent. Sibling. Whosoever. You could still be playing your game.

Life’s a game too.

A game doesn’t mean you have to rule over someone, or something. Wherever there’s a lesson to be learnt, a game is on. When we talk about your life-lessons, we talk about your game.

If I’m not mistaken, life is about learning. For some of us. There are souls who come to spend surplus Karma. Once this is exhausted, their game changes by default, since the lessons start again.

We come face to face with people and situations… to learn. The same people and / or situations keep reappearing till some learning is fully learnt. They can appear in an overbearing role, but you’re still playing your game. You’re learning your lesson. Or not. These people and / or situations cause you to behave as per a groove which has encompassed your life. The lesson is to learn how to break out of the groove. If you’re learning the lesson, you’re playing your game. If not, you’re playing someone else’s.

Play the market. Play your game with the market. Someone else’s successful market game might lure you. It won’t give you lasting succes. Why?

Someone else’s successful market game caters to someone else’s psychology. In crux situations, you will falter in that game. You will lose it all. That someone will succeed. He or she has spent years devising a game which caters fully and totally to his or her psychology and risk profile. Not to yours. He or she cannot know as much about your own psychology and risk profile as you do. Therefore, devise your own market-play. Then, play it.

It takes years or perhaps a decade to discover and understand your behaviour, psychology and reactions to varied market situations. Be there. In the market. Make small mistakes. Learn your lessons. Understand your grooves. Devise a comprehensive strategy around this.
That’s your game.

What are you waiting for?

Play it.

🙂

Take that –>@&%# Mr. Peer Pressure

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Dear Mr. PP,

I don’t give in to you, never have, never will.

You’re not that important.

I don’t spend my time thinking about you.

I don’t respect any entity without a backbone, and you certainly don’t have one.

I’ve met you many times.

At first, I felt you, and was taken aback. You wanted me to do something I didn’t wish to do. You were strong.

I was stronger.

When you don’t know anything about the reputation of your opponent, frankly, you don’t give a d*m*. You fight. Till you fall or till the other fellow backs down.

I won my first head to head with you. Thank my stars.

After that I found out who you were. Yeah, who was it exactly that I didn’t succumb to?

After I’d grown up and all, and fully realized your devastation potential, I always leaned back on my first head to head. I mean, you were beatable. Period.

Yeah, I was lucky to have beaten you first up. It’s been a huge psychological advantage.

I’ve carried over this advantage into my market life.

Take a hike, Mr. PP.

[As far as market related activities go, I follow and advocate an unbiased, singular and customized path which doesn’t follow any crowd or any myths as such.

This path certainly does not let me invest under any kind of pressure.

Where there’s pressure, there are vested interests.

Please beware of investments which don’t suit your risk profile and are touted to quench vested interests].

Hanging On to a Structure

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How does one build a wall?

Brick upon brick, right?

One doesn’t usually take out the brick two layers below to use elsewhere. Common-sense. 

Why should it be any different while building a rock-solid portfolio?

Well, it’s not. 

Those who feel it is will soon realise… that it’s not.

You set up an investment.

You then see it through to its logical conclusion. 

You don’t let it go in between… …unless we’re talking about a life and death situation.

Apart from this one caveat, you just don’t let the investment go. You see it through… to its logical conclusion. Period. 

Meanwhile, other opportunities arise. 

You are tempted to get into them. That’s what opportunities are for. 

Now you need to be creative. 

You’re not letting one structure go for the sake of creating another. 

You are going to keep the former and create the latter. 

How?

Dig into your reserves.

How were the reserves created?

They were created by former structures that were seen through to their logical conclusion. These contributed along their paths and upon their culmination. 

Reserves not enough?

Borrow agains a former structure. 

Don’t borrow big. Borrowed amount should not be big enough to harm the former structure, but big enough to couple with your reserves and see your new structure through. 

Still not enough? Requirement for new structure not being met?

Let the new structure go. 

Opportunities keep coming and going. No one’s got a copyright on opportunities. 

Save up for the next one. 

Brick by brick, remember. Without sacrificing the bricks below. 

🙂

The Thin Line

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Have you met the thin line…

…  between ambition and greed?

You see it. You want to cross it without wanting to cross it.

What stops you?

A deadly sin is… deadly. If you’re sensitive enough, you do fear the effects of a deadly sin.

Greed can ruin. It has the capacity to upset an apple-cart.

Sometimes you want something that extra much.

Ambition turns into over-ambition.

You get your something.

You’re a go-getter.

You become over-confident.

You forget your basics.

Next few times around, you cross the thin line repeatedly. The high is addictive. Soon, you’re crossing…

… without even knowing.

Yeah, the vicious cycle outlined above has made you insensitive. You’ve stepped over, don’t even know it, and on you’re going. You’re blinded by greed.

It’s not happened overnight. First the thin line beckoned you to come back. Your over-ambition spurred you on a few steps more. A few more steps wouldn’t harm, right?

Wrong.

You’re not sensitive anymore. You’ve lost normal vision. You’re greedy for your goal. You’re not sticking to your basic tenets. You’re not playing safe anymore. You’ve started to even play with your safety moat, in order to achieve an even bigger goal.

You’ve set yourself up to fall… big.

If you do, I hope for two things.

First up, I hope you don’t fall too big, and that you can get up again.

Second, I hope that this fall is your last one, and that it has made you sensitive again.

Sensitive?

Towards what?

Yeah, sensitive towards the thin line.

The Price of Value-Addition

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Does value-addition carry a price-tag?

You bet.

What, you thought you could add value… for free?

Naehhhh.

Good things in life generally don’t come for free.

One doesn’t value the best of things that are free. One treats them cheaply… because they’re free.

In the marketplace, free-kinda stuff always comes with a catch, or a trap.

Ponzis use high-return free money ad-tags to lure pig-investors.

I generally steer clear of free-kinda stuff, anywhere and anyhow in life.

Don’t be afraid to pay (well) for value-addition.

By adding value, you’re doing yourself a huge favour. You’re creating an asset that will generate towards your corpus on auto-pilot. Why should something like this be coming for free?

In fact, why should something like this not be appropriately expensive?

I Don’t Want the Cancer

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Are you hurt?

A.

Do you want the cancer?

B.

I do get hurt. Yeah, things hurt me. I’m an emotionally penetrable human being.

Fine. That’s me.

What I definitely don’t want is option B.

Who wants option B?

Can’t think of anyone.

Who gets option B?

Many.

But who?

Those who can’t forget the hurt. Yeah, people who’re unable to move on.

To forget the hurt and move on, simultaneously saving ourselves from the cancer, we need to forgive.

Someone’s misbehaved. Hurt you. Are you going to ruin your future days? No.

Forgive. Forget. Move on.

Just remove the mould in which cancer can potentially set in.

What makes you think it’s different in the markets?

A loss is a hurt.

Need I say more?

You can do the math.

Finding Structure Within

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You are you. He is he. She is she. I am I. It is it. 

Even if the above is the only thing that you carry home from this space, you’re done already. 

Move on then, with your life, because you’ve understood something big. 

If not, do please read on. 

You are not I. I am not you. He is not she. She is not he. That’s it. 

Here’s the next biggie.

Those who come into funds need to know how to manage them. Period. 

Do what you want. Run umpteen miles. Put up a million facades. Muster up all the drama you’re capable of. After that you’ll come to this conclusion …

 … that nobody else is more capable of managing your funds than you yourself. 

Why?

Because you are you. You know yourself best. A third party is firstly (realistically) not bothered about knowing you, and secondly is only capable of seeping into a minuscule portion of you, if he or she makes the effort. Forget about third parties. 

So you realize you need to manage your own funds, what then?

Jump into the water.

While your corpus is small, make mistakes. Learn from them. That’s college. Tuition fees.

Recognize your strengths. Play to them. Pulverize your weaknesses after identifying them.

Then come the structures, from within. These are your structures. They’ll come from inside of you. 

There’s you, and there’s the battle-field. The two are face to face. It’s a do or die situation. You go into reflex-action mode. Your systems start to function at full capacity. That’s when structures emerge.

Yeah, structures need an activation barrier to emerge. 

There’s a protective structure. It’s your protective structure. It guides you to build your moat. It protects your family. 

Then there’s your post-protection bulk-game structure. It guides you towards building up your innings without the worries of basic bread and butter. 

Lastly, there’s your multiplication structure. It chalks out high-reward-high-risk strategies, tweaks them towards maximum possible safety, and tells you where to put that minute percentage of your corpus with the intent of achieving extra-ordinary gains. 

Allow such structures to emerge. Embrace them. Innovate. Improvise. Achieve. Educate.

Go for the jugular. 

Who are You?

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Who am I?

Do I know?

Am I trying to know?

Is this an important question for me?

What’s my path?

Where am I on this path?

What are my basic goals in life?

What are my weaknesses?

What am I doing to make these my strengths?

What motivates me to perform?

Does my environment enhance my performance?

Or does it hamper me?

If it does, what am I doing about it?

Am I tweaking my environment?

Yeah, am I manipulative enough?

Am I content with the hampering?

Why should I be content with the hampering?

Because it makes me grow, as in evolve?

Maybe.

Who are you?

What are your defining questions?

How do you unravel?

Ultimately, what is your risk profile?

Who are you… sure… very valid question.

Why?

It’s the basic precursor question with regard to another important question.

Who are you as far as finance is concerned?

In the field of finance, you need to know your risk-profile, and you need to have a defined meta-game-plan.

Defined as per who you are.

Uniquely, for yourself.

Bye 🙂

Dealing with Noise…the Old-Fashioned Way

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There’s a sure-shot way to deal with noise…

…just shut your ears. 

Yeah, the best ideas in the world are – simple. 

Let’s not complicate things, ok?

So, what kinda noise are we talking about here?

We’re not talking about audio, you got that right…!

The concept is related, though. 

If you’re charting, you’ve dealt with noise. 

Yeah, we’re talking about minute to minute, hour to hour or day to day fluctuations in a chart of any underlying.

Markets fluctuate. 

While discussing noise, we are pointing towards relatively small fluctuations which generally don’t affect the long-term trend. 

However, noise has the capability of deceiving our minds into believing that the long-term trend is turning, or is over. 

Don’t let noise fool you.

When has the long-term trend changed?

When the chart proves it to you through pre-defined fashion. That’s it. You don’t let noise to get you to believe that the long-term trend has changed, or is changing. Ever. 

You believe your chart. 

Moving averages crossing over? Support broken? Resistance pierced? Trend-line shattered? ADX below 15? Fine, fine, FINE.

Take your pick. You have many avenues giving decent signals that the long-term trend has changed or is changing. 

How about eyeballing? Works for some. Like I said, let’s keep this simple. 

So let’s get noise out of the way. 

Random numbers generate trends – you knew that, right?

You don’t need more. 

Once you’ve identified a trend, that’s your cue to latch on to it. 

We’re not talking about predicting here. We don’t need to predict. We just need to identify a trend, and latch on. That’s all. No predictions. Not required. 

From this point on, two things can happen.

Further random numbers deepen the trend you’ve latched on to. You make money. Good. 

Or, the next set of random numbers make your trade go against you, and your stop gets hit. 

If your stop is getting hit, please let it get hit. Even that qualifies as a good trade. 

You move on to the next trade setup, without even blinking. 

What you’re not doing is letting noise throw you out of the trade by deceiving your mind. 

So, here’s what you do. 

You’ve id’d your trend. You’ve latched on. Your stop is in place. Now, don’t look at your trade. 

Till when?

That’s your call. 

Don’t look at your trade till you’ve decided not to look at it. For the day-trader, this could be a couple of hours. For the positional trader, it could be days, or weeks. 

By not looking, you won’t let noise deceive you. 

If the trend doesn’t deepen, or goes against you, you lose the risked small amount. 

Just remember one thing. 

A loss has immense informational value. It teaches you about market behaviour patterns. It also highlights your trading errors. Many times, losses occur without any mistakes made by you. 

That’s the nature of trading. 

Ultimately, if the trend deepens, you’ll have made good money, and can then further manage your trade after the stipulated period of not looking.

This is the sweet spot.

This is where you want to be, again, and again and again.

Sitting on a large profit gives you room to play for more profit by lifting your stop and your target simultaneously.

To reach this sweet spot again, and again and again, you have to position yourself out there and appropriately, again, and again and again. 

This is also the nature of trading.

Wishing you happy and lucrative trading!

🙂

Charting Charting Charting

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Why don’t you just…

… trade what you see?

Trade the chart, dammit.

Not the level.

Not the expectancy of a turnaround.

And, although I still do this because it gives me a kick, why do we even trade corrections?

Why can’t we just trade the sheer chart?

Every chart is either going up, down or nowhere.

So it’s pretty obvio, that the first step would be to…

… to what?

… to decide where the chart is going.

Again, it should be pretty obvio, that if a chart is going nowhere, then you are doing… what?

Are you trading such a chart?

NO!

Wait for such a chart to break out in one particular direction.

Wait for the LTT to turn in this direction.

Then trade this chart. Not before.

Yeah, LTT stands for long-term trend.

Yeah, we’ve befriended the LTT so much, that we have an abbreviation going for it…

Once you’ve sorted out the direction, look for an entry setup.

Be patient.

If the entry setup hasn’t formed yet, wait for it. If you can’t stop your twiddling fingers from doing something, feed in a trigger entry in case of a hypothetical setup formation within the next few hours / days, if your trading station allows this.

There’s no up or down anymore, to be honest. You are going where the chart is going, period.

You are also not asking the stooopidest question of them all…

… you guessed it… “Did the sensory index go up, or down?”

Just forget about the sensory index, ok?

I mean, we’re so done with sensory indices in this space.

Why?

DLF could tank 20 bucks on a day the Sensex goes up. Dow Jones could be down 50 points, but Pfizer could just spring into a stellar upwards move. Why should we have lost the short-side opportunity that DLF hypothetically gave, or the long-side opportunity that Pfizer could present, for example? We will do exactly that, i.e. lose the opportunity, if our focus is on the sensory index.

Focus on the underlying.

To be more precise, focus on the chart of the underlying.

Happy trading.

🙂

If it Fits You…

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… then nothing else matters.

Who told you that finance is a one-size-fits-all game?

Actually, the truth is very far away.

Truth is truth.

It doesn’t matter how much you twist it, or bury it or whatever.

It eventually emerges, unchanged, unscathed, true.

And the winds here are talking about unique sizing for each market player.

Yeah, only a unique fit is going to fulfill your own market play.

It will look silly to others.

People will laugh.

Doesn’t matter.

It fits you.

You’ve found your fit. That alone is invaluable. People undergo decades of struggle looking for theirs. Many don’t find it.

What is that state of being, when you know that you’ve found your fit?

Satisfaction.

You’re not jumping.

Not edgy.

Not looking further.

Looking for extra time, to develop and enhance what you’ve found.

You’re at peace.

You’re happy sitting.

Small things count big in the markets.