Category Archives: Emotions

“Don’t Turn Around – Der Kommissar’s in Town”

Posted on by
Reply

There’s activity within our slow-poke government.

Yup, we just got a new finance minister. PC’s back. Or, as the newspaper said, PC reboots.

He’s probably reinforcing backdated taxation.

He’s hinted at interest-rate cuts.

He’s after more service-tax candidates.

He’s transferred lots of portfolios.

He’s trying to dish out motivational quotes, so that the economy revives.

“Alles klar, Herr Kommissar?”

The last time PC was in town, there was volatlity in the markets. First they went up and up and up, and then they went down and down and down. Mr. Chidambaram is a by-word for volatility.

How does he do it?

Frankly, I don’t care.

If I’m getting volatility, I’m taking it.

Not that India as a market lacks any volatility without PC.

We Indians are emotionally volatile people. When we are happy, we are sooooooo happy. When we are down and out, man, we are totally gone. No surprise that our markets reflect our topsy-turvy and dramatic emotional nature. Yes, the trader in India is blessed with a volatile trading scenario by default.

So, PC or no PC, volatile trades make themselves available to us in the Indian markets regularly. What PC does is, he gives the system’s volatility a turbo-boost. Our market’s “beta” goes up wth PC, and it goes up fast, quite fast.

Man, how does he do it?

You know, I still don’t care, but if I did, I think this would be the correct answer.

Der Kommissar seems to do it in two steps. First he creates carrots, lots of carrots. These are dangled before India Inc. Things start hotting up. Foreign investment wakes up – demand – buying pressure – our markets go up. Then, when the balloon is inflated, der Kommissar will appear on television and will let out comments (implementation of stick, like the backdated taxation thing) which the market takes exception to. Or, he might give some interview in the media which India Inc. interprets negatively. Well, down we come crashing. Frankly, I still couldn’t care less. Upwards or down, there’s a trade to be found.

Just a few days in his seat, and pivot points are leading to bounce-backs, supports are holding, resistances cracking (it’s the carrots), and technicals are very, very initially changing from “range-bound” to “trending”.

Fine, let’s just trade the Kommissar while he’s in town.

I’ve quoted Falco above and I’m quoting him again : “Alles klar, Herr Kommissar!”

What Exactly is a Decent Trade?

Posted on by
Reply

A decent trade should yield you money, right?

Not necessarily so.

Am I crazy?

No.

So why am I saying this?

Am I not in the business to be in the green?

Of course I am, so let’s delve a little deeper.

As is slowly becoming clear to you, Mrs. Market is a schizophrenic. Her behaviour is mostly looney, and more often that not, she traverses an unexpected trajectory.

In the business of trading, there lie before you a set of circumstances, and your trading decisions are based upon these.

Thus, you outline your trade.

You plan the entry.

You plan the exit.

You define the reward : risk ratio.

You draw up a trade management plan, as outlined by your system. You preplan your response to all possible movements of Mrs. Market.

Can you do more?

No.

Can you predict Mrs. Market’s future behaviour?

No.

You have an idea about what she might do, based upon past behaviour, but does that make her future path certain?

No.

So that’s it, you enter a trade offering a high reward : risk ratio, based upon information from the past and a probabilistic idea about the future. A high reward : risk means that if there is a payout, it will be high in comparison to the loss you might bear if the trade goes against you. Something like 2 : 1 (possible profit : possible loss), or at least more than 1 : 1.

So what’s going to make your trade decent?

Just stick to your systematic plan, and you’ll have traded well.

Notice, no talk of any money here.

We’ve only spoken of sticking to our system-outlined trading plan.

We are not focusing on money. We are focusing on trading well.

Money is a side-effect to decent trading.

Trade decently, do the right thing, and money will follow as a side-effect, seen over the long run.

If your trade-management plan says you are cutting the trade below point X, and if point X is pierced by Mrs. M as she moves against you, well, the right thing to do would be to cut the trade.

So what if the trade didn’t yield you money?

It was a trade well executed, AS PER YOUR SYSTEM-OUTLINED TRADING PLAN.

What would have made this trade an indecent one would be if you hadn’t cut the trade below point X, irrespective of where Mrs. M went after that.

Why would the trade then be “bad”?

Because you didn’t follow your system’s advice.

You second-guessed yourself.

That means that you don’t have faith in your trade-management abilities, and / or that you succumbed to your emotions. You begun to hope that Mrs. M would start to move your way after piercing point X during her move against your trade direction.

If you did follow your system, you actually didn’t let any hope enter the equation.

Decent.

You had faith in your system, and did not second-guess yourself.

Very decent.

Such faith in one’s system is absolutely essential, and you’ll realize that as you start to scale up in trade-size.

Let’s look at the other part of your trade-management plan.

Let’s say that you decided that if Mrs. M moved in your directon, then you would stay in the trade till you saw the scrip giving at least one sign that it was stagnating. Only then would you book profits, upon such a signal from Mrs. M.

Assume then, that after entry there’s a spike in your direction, and you are in the money.

What do you do now?

Do you get greedy, forget about your trade-management plan, and book the trade? Would such a money-yielding trade be considered decent?

No.

Firstly, you got greedy.

Indecent.

Then, you forgot about your system-outlined trading plan.

Very indecent.

So what if you made money?

Sticking to your system’s advice would have given you the chance to make more, perhaps much more.

It is difficult enough to pinpoint a scrip which is about to explode.

Then, when you land such a scrip, the last thing that you want to be doing to yourself is nipping the explosion in the bud.

You nipped potential profits, even if you took a portion home.

Very, very indecent.

There you have it, people.

Use your common-sense, and, trade decently.

Mentally Speaking

Posted on by
Reply

The trader’s biggest enemy is…

…his or her own mind.

The good news is, that one’s mind can be trained … to become one’s friend.

Between these two sentences lies a path.

Some never make it.

For some, this path is arduous.

Other, more disciplined ones make it through.

However, that’s not the end.

Once there, one needs to stay there.

Emotions get in the way.

Fear. Greed. Hubris. Hope. Impatience. Insecurity. Despair …

… you got the drift.

Knock them out, people. Once in the market, stamp all emotion out of your (market) life.

Listen to your system. First make your system.

It doesn’t matter if it’s a technical one, or a fundamental one, or whether it is techno-fundamental, or for that matter funda-technological.

It is your system.

You have spent time putting it together.

You have lost money recognizing its pitfalls, and have tweaked these pitfalls away after they were recognized by you.

Since it has reaped you rewards, you have begun to trust it.

Stay with the trust. Don’t let your mind play tricks on you. It likes to.

Once your trusted system identifies a setup, take it. Period.

Your mind will suddenly switch on. What if this, and what if that?

Ignore.

Only use the mind’s intellect portion to perfect your system. That’s the friendly part for you. Together with it, you construct a system that is capable of identifying setup after setup, from one properly executable trade to another.

You see a setup, and you take it. No ifs, no buts, no what-ifs.

Similary, when your system identifies a stop or a target, and when this is hit, you are out of the trade. Period.

No procrastination. No waiting. No fear. No hoping. No greed.

No mind …

… from entry to trade management to exit.

Switch your mind back on when you have wound up your market activities for the day.

Switch your mind on amidst family. It’ll be fresh.

That’s the path between the two sentences at the top.

Here’s wishing that it’s an easy one for you.

Don’t Cry for Chris Atkinson

Posted on by
Reply

Chris Atkinson is terminal.

You couldn’t tell that by looking at him.

He’s happy. Most of his physical pain gets subdued by medicine. The remaining portion gets subdued by the harmonious environment he’s created around himself all his life.

Whatever’s left of his life is still a pleasure. He looks forward to it.

He won’t be sorry to go, though, for he carries with him a huge sense of accomplishment.

For starters, he’s had a flawless marriage. Neither of them have felt the need to fight.

He has been faithful to her and has given her everything he possibly could.

She has supported him selflessly in every venture of his. She has never abused the financial freedom he’s given her. Also, she’s never been jealous of his intelligence.

She has not nagged. That’s a huge one, and he knows the value of his good fortune.

Furthermore, she has overlooked the “too-much proximity” clause, and has allowed him to work from home in peace. She has even added to the harmony of his work-sphere at home.

He’s not told her he’s terminal. In fact, no one else knows, except him and his doctor.

He has always wanted to work till his last day. Also, she should see his smiling side till the end.

What about after that?

Will she be safe?

After all, before her marriage, Jane Atkinson was probably the most tech-unsavvy woman alive.

Forty something years with him have completely turned that around.

She is financially independent today. More importantly, she’s able to access and manage her personal funds and investments independently. She doesn’t need to contact any fund-managers, brokers, bankers or the like. All her accounts are online, and their logins and passwords are sorted, stored, and accessible only to her. She is able to move her personal funds worldwide with a few button-clicks.

He has taught her fantastically.

She has learnt very well.

Initially, it was a slow going.

The most important thing was, there was no ego from her side while learning. She knew he was teaching her something really important. Though she was not the least bit interested in it, she respected his seriousness and intensity, and decided to learn as diligently as she could, without insulting his earnest attitude.

Slowly, she’s gotten the hang of it. Slowly, her interest in money matters has awakened.

It’s also worked because he has been very patient with her. He’s never blown up.

His monthly “lectures” on saving have converted her from a champion spendthrift to a slightly serious saver. She still spends a lot, but has been managing to save a bit every month. Since his monthly allowance to her has been huge since the beginning, the bit she saves equates to a lot of money in her personal account at the end of every month, money that’s waiting to be invested.

And now comes the kicker. She knows how to handle idle funds. Her knowledge on investing comes purely from watching him in action. She has watched in bits and pieces over forty plus years. She has shared his professional tensions, allowing him to speak freely about what has bothered him. Her mind has soaked in all this information. Because of the long time-span involved, she has digested the information and transformed it subconsciously into a usable form. Today, she is not only financially independent, but also financially capable.

So, no, he’s not worried about her on the financial front.

What’s eating him a bit is the emotional side of life. How will she take it?

He knows she’s strong. She’ll be shattered, though. They share a bond that most people don’t have. They don’t need to speak in each other’s presence. There’s so much mutual love, that life is telepathic. Her mental strength will pull her through, he tells himself. Their happy memories will sooth her feelings.

If you ask him, he’ll want her to move on. As in, he’ll want her to find a new and suitable relationship. She won’t, though. They have something a new relationship will not be able to replace.

He knows she’ll plunge further into her charity work, and will keep busy.

She’ll remember and miss him every day. That very thought takes away any of his pain that remains, physical or mental. He feels wanted, and will do so till his last day and beyond. Feeling wanted is a tremendously satisfying state of mind.

He has always been aware that she is emotionally dependent on him, and has never abused this knowledge. Over the last four decades, he has made her aware of her emotional dependence, asking her to work on it.

Today, he feels she’s capable of handling his permanent physical absence. It’ll hurt her, but she’ll handle it. She’ll cry, but joyful memories will pull her through.

Don’t cry for Chris Atkinson.

When he goes, he’ll go on a happy and fulfilled note. He’s had a great life.

Many couples wish they would live their lives like Chris and Jane Atkinson have done.