Category Archives: Information Flow

The We

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First up…

…there’s a we.

What’s…

…the we?

Magic Bull, with its inter-twined concepts, strategies and multi-faceted approach…

…has now been taught forward…

…to many.

Later this month, this blog will turn 15, with many continuing to benefit in the future too.

Therefore…

…there’s a we.

It’s an ensemble of those benefited even a small bit by what’s in this space. This is a give-back cum self-evolutionary exercise which has resulted in the strengthening of financial fundamentals in my own mind too.

And, I do believe, that some new ground has been broken @ Magic Bull. The paramount novelty, in my mind, is how tenets inter-twine to form a comprehensive 360-degree market approach which can seamlessly be applied to any market.

Teaching forward makes for a better world. It sets a chain of positivity in motion. It is done without expectation of reward from the person receiving, who, in turn, subconsciously, gravitates towards paying something beneficial forward, to someone else.

There is a reward, though.

It comes unexpectedly, at times when it is greatly required. A closed door opens, an obstacle gets removed mysteriously, a hidden benefit emerges, and other such phenomena keep occurring regularly.

Apart from setting a wave of positivity in motion, another big reason to write is the journey. The enjoyable, immersive journey engages. Creates. Fulfils. The Universe adds its punctuation to the two pennies emerging from within.

What results is something tangible, yet portable into the far future.

2050?

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Yes.

Why?

Why what?

Why 2050?

Growth trajectory.

Whose?

India’s.

What about it?

Spurts with bottlenecks. Not linear.

So?

Will take 2050 till fruition.

Meaning, for you?

Quest for multibagger accumulation will be successfully achieved.

By 2050?

Yeah.

Anything else?

My own trajectory.

Will you be around?

Not relevant.

Why?

I’ll leave the assets as my legacy.

To whom?

Family. Country. Charity.

Striving and then leaving it?

Doesn’t cause me any reaction.

Why?

It’s cost-free.

Meaning?

My principal is not invested. Pulled it out in profit. What remains in the markets is cost-free. I live and enjoy my life on my income, simultaneously creating a cost-free legacy. The cost-free-ness tricks my mind into an eternal hold. I stop jumping. Vicissitudes of price path have no meaning for me once something has become cost-free.

And why stop in 2050?

Growth culmination. India enters first-world territory. It becomes difficult to create multiples fast. Life is far more efficient, and so is price, then. Loopholes are filled in by artificial intelligence before an EoD chap like me can react. Info-flow is so fast and transparent, that everybody knows. Everyone is smart because they use the appropriate tools. Since all money is smart, there’s no edge anymore. But that’s 2050. Today, oh, there are edges. Inefficiency lasting longer than EoD. Sometimes lasting months. Loopholes. Pattern related. Operator related. Price related. AI is not fully there yet. Most market players are not smart, I think the official statistic reads 88%. Almost all tools look at the wrong stuff. By the time one reacts to indicators, which are a function of price, most of the edge is gone. Information-flow is not fast enough, and if you can read it in the numbers or the chart before it happens, the edge is huge. And, forget about transparency. It’s just not there. We’re sitting of big edges currently.

So, 2050, stop, and then what?

No idea. Let’s go with the flow. Right now the flow is leading up to 2050.

And what if there are world-shattering events before that?

We buy. We are almost always highly liquid. When we’re not, we start creating liquidity. We are never illiquid. 2050 is just a number. We have numbers to go on, like lamp-posts. It’s another lamp-post, like 1984, or Y2k, or what have you.

Do you want to be the person remembered for 2050?

That’s not even a question for me. I’m flowing with 2050 because that works for me. I don’t care about the rest. If you wish to think with that mindset, that’s on you.

Why rude?

Nothing rude or not rude about it. 2050 is part of my framework. Nothing more, nothing less.

I see.

Plusses & Minuses of a Cloud-Society

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Where do we stand today?

What’s changed compared to yesterday?

Are we better off?

What’s not better off?

Where is all this heading to?

Lastly, what’s your takeaway. 

People, questions, questions and more questions. It’s good to ask questions. Those who don’t, well, they don’t evolve. Stagnation in today’s day and age is owing to being late for a bus because nobody was there to put your shoes on for you, so that you could catch the bus. You didn’t attempt to put on these yourself, and you didn’t attempt to run-off bare-feet either. You kept waiting for someone who would put your shoes on for you. People, forget it and wake up. This party’s hot, and it’s moving very fast. Keep moving with it. It’s a hell of a ride. 

The word “Cloud” is very big today. 

“One needs to be in the Cloud, blah blah blah” etc. is heard at parties. 

Humans have realised the vulnerability of hardware. Data in the cloud is probably safer. Yes, Cloud it is . Cloud is the future. HOWEVER…

a). Keep multiple backups on your own hardware also. Accidental deletion on the cloud could sync across all your devices. Where do you stand then? Most cloud backup softwares throw in backing up to additional hardware for free. Use this. It’s a legitimate freebie. You’d be a fool not to use this. Btw, of course you’ve got your time-machine or similar backups going on the side too. BE WELL BACKED-UP.

b). Don’t necessarily keep sensitive data on the cloud. You can very easily manually back up your password-bank (for example) across multiple devices. Sensitive data needs to be password protected. Period. Music and photos can fall into different categories here. Depends on you. 

c). The norm with contacts is that they start backing up to your main email ID. Great. Losing one’s contacts becomes that much harder. Don’t store sensitive stuff in your contacts. 

d). Your main email ID becomes hugely important. Make sure it’s not hacked. Keep changing it’s password. Remember it’s password. Update it in your password bank. Use your email ID to search. Old emails, files, attachments, photos, anything. Today, the whole repository goes along with your email. 

e). Have a balanced approach towards social media. Don’t upload stuff you’ll regret. Try and circulate your family photos within controlled circles. Be wary of social media, and teach your kids of its dangers. 

f). THEN, Cloud is one thing, and accessibility to it and being well-organised on it is another. You could be fully in the cloud, but what use is your stuff to you in the cloud, if it’s not accessible across all your devices seamlessly, at a button-click. There are many software-services doing this for you. Your software-service needs to have a lightning search-functionality, which goes through your search-words and hashtags at a super speed [((btw you are not functioning without hashtags today, so that you can easily sift through your stuff, and call up something in a flash))]. Of course the whole thing costs. Just pay and BECOME SEAMLESS. What’ll you be set back by? 50 USD pear annum? Don’t be penny-wise pound-foolish. DO THIS. 

g). Please don’t forget your Internet-Security along the path. Use a pay-service, on you mobiles and your computers. People, why do we forget the basics?

h). Guard your eyes. Wash them. Use a moistener. Use Ayurvedic eye-drops on the side. Do eye-exercises. 

i). Guard agains neck pain (back-pain). Swim. Walk. Posture. Don’t overdo media. 

j). Guard agains index-finger pain. Mobile and desktop typing and touch has made the index finger of supreme importance. However, it is susceptible to pain and disease if you are not careful. 

k). Guard against heart-attack. We are a sedantry lot now. Almost all day, we vegetate. Most of us, that is. Get a band. Programme it to buzz every hour that you are in your seat. When it buzzes, move. Follow your daily steps. 10-15,000 steps per day is the need of the hour. Couple the band to your diet. Follow its calorie-burning module. Teach your band, till it comes out with intelligent suggestions. A band is like a pet. 

l). Guard your karma-balance. Be a contributor. Don’t only be a free user. Contribute freely on the web. Add to the world. Take the world forward. You are using so much stuff off and on the web, for free, that if you are not on your guard, you might end up exhausting a lot of karma. Thus, generate fresh positive karma too, to keep levels up. 

m). Lastly, it all depends on the internet connection you have, and how much you remain connected as you move. Spend well here, have access to more than sufficient data allocation and speed, both on your computer and on your mobile. An adequate internet connection with ample data-allocation is the lifeline of being in the Cloud. 

YEAH, use your Cloud well and optimally. Fine-tune your Cloud-effectivity. Keep in good shape. Be Cloud-proud! 🙂

I know a guy who knows another guy who knows this guy…

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Well, congratulations.

So you’re well connected.

You probably play golf with the CEO of Big Balls Incorporated.

We’re not even going into how you wangled the slot.

You probably feel, that because of your connectedness, you can get away with anything in life.

Well, almost anything.

That’s the bottom-line.

You can get away with almost anything in life.

Here are two areas where your connectivity counts jack. As in El Zero. Nadda.

One is before the Almighty (presuming that God exists). Buying a slot with God using connections isn’t gonna cut it with the big guy. You can’t buy personal time with deities using money and / or connections, even if you think you can. Also, that “bought” time, when you shoved everyone else out of line, well, that time’s not going to make your life any better, or richer. You’ve just established yourself as someone who shoves others out of line using connections….that’s how your deity is going to view your performance. So, what you’re going to understand from this space is that before deities – the Almighty – God – the Metaphysical – or whatever you might want to call what I’m talking about, connections don’t work. You only end up scoring negative in your deity’s books.

Which brings us to the more relevant matter – where else do connections not work?

In the marketplace of course, my friend.

Don’t believe me? Fine, find it out for yourself, the hard way. Or, read on.

You see, in the marketplace, insiders have an agenda. All insiders. They have an agenda.

That agenda is personal. It includes them. It doesn’t include you … … if you’re not connected to the insider. Once you are, and you use that connection to fish for “lucrative” inside information, that’s where the insider’s agenda starts to include you. The information you get is as per the agenda of the insider. If a promoter wishes to off-load huge quantities of stock, you will be told that the stock’s a good buy, because blah-blah-blah-blah-blah. On the other hand, if the promoter wishes to buy back large quantities of stock, because of attractive valuations, you’ll be told to sell the stock owing to tricky prospects in the future. You are not getting quality information when you fish for tips. You’ll only find yourself getting trapped if you follow insider tips.

There are good insiders too … is that what you are saying? Ok, fine, some insiders are good human beings. They are not vicious, and they wish you well. They might even want to do you a favour, wishing that you make some money from the information they are letting out. All true. Question is, does it really work?

No.

Why?

You see, an insider never functions alone. When a company experiences a turnaround or a great quarter comes along with excellent earnings, white-collared people connected to the functioning of the company obviously know this, and they leak this information out (for a price) to smart researchers and investors. These smarties (along with their entire intimate circle of connectivity) buy into the company’s prospects. The money moved is called smart money. Smart money registers / reflects on the traders’ charts. The scrip might show a bounce-back from a low with huge volume, or a resistance might be broken, or a new high could even be made (all coupled with large volume). Traders latch on. Price movers higher. All this is happening before the CEO has announced quarterly results, mind you. Finally, a few days before the results, the corresponding results-file lands on the CEO’s desk. He or she congratulates his or her staff on the spectacular performance, and over a round of golf, the information is shared with you. The CEO is obviously thinking that the market is going to react positively to the earnings surprise that’s going to be announced.

Well, the earnings are not going to be a surprise. The market already knows, and earnings have thus already been factored into the price, before results are announced. Announcement time is generally selling time for traders, who tend to sell all stock upon the first spike after announcement. With no more buying pressure (since traders are out of the scrip), the inflated scrip tanks despite the good news, leaving you stuck with a peak-price buy. Well done, well done indeed.

See, that’s why. Don’t listen to insiders, even if they mean well.

In the marketplace, you really are on your own. Isn’t that exciting? As in challenging?

All the best, my friend. Learn to rely on your own judgement.

Game-Changers

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Change.

The one factor that keeps us evolving.

Adapt or get left behind. Seems to be the Mantra of the times.

The management of money has seen some big game-changers over the last few decades. We want to speak about them today.

In the ’90s, Bill Gates wrote about business at the speed of thought. We’re kinda there, you know. Let’s say you have an idea. From idea to framework, it’s mostly about a few button-clicks, with the web being full of idea-realizing resources. See, we’re already discussing the biggest game-changer, which is the flow of information. Today, we live in a sea of information. It’s yours to tap. Delivered to you on a platter. Such information flow changes everything, from lead-time to middle-men. Best part is, almost all of the information available is free!

Then there’s technology. Cutting-edge software, everywhere. Now, there’s even a software to smoothly organize your contract notes and calculate profit or loss, and taxes due. It’ll give you the appropriate print-out, whichever way you want it. You don’t need to hire an accountant to audit your market play. You just click the contract note and the software extracts all relevant information from it, organizing it beautifully. Actually, that’s nothing. Market-play software is what we should be speaking about. Cut to the movie “A Good Year”. Just picture Russell Crowe motivating his “lab-rats” to go for the kill and short an underlying, only to short-cover a few points below. The technical software follow-up of the underlying’s price on the wall-panels is the image embedded in my mind, as the price gets beaten down, and then starts to rise again.

Market software allows you to run scans too. A common exercise I do at the beginning of a trading day is to narrow down the 4,537 active stocks on the BSE and the NSE to about 10 tradable ones. I do this with 2 back to back scans. Each scan takes a minute. Then, I study the charts of the tradable stocks and select two or three to follow. That’s another 5 minutes. Putting on trigger buys or sells for these stocks takes 2 minutes. So, assuming that a trade gets triggered in the first minute, I have arrived from scratch to active trade in 10 bare minutes, with no prior market preparation. That’s what technology can do for you, and more. Software is expensive. It’s mostly a one-time cost with a life-time of benefit. Worth it. The management of money is a business, and each business needs initial investment.

Numbers have changed the game. Volumes have grown for many underlying entities that were illiquid earlier. When volumes are healthy, the bid-ask spread is very tradable. Thus, today, you can choose to trade in almost any avenue of your choice and you are almost certainly going to get a liquid trade.

Our attitudes and lifestyles have changed too. Today, we want more. No one is satisfied with mediocricity or being average. We have tasted the fruit that’s to be had, and are willing to get there at any cost, because we are hungry. Luxurious lifestyles lure us to rush into the game, which we play with everything we’ve got, because as I said, we’ve tasted the fruit, and we want more. Our approach has made the stakes go up. We need to adapt to the high stakes with proper risk-management.

It’s never been easier to access funds, even if you don’t have them. Leverage is the order of the day. Of course that changes the game, leading to higher volumes and increasing the frequency of trading. We need to keep debt-levels under control. It’s never been easier to go bust. Just takes a few button-clicks and a few missed stops. The leverage levels take care of the rest.

Game-changers will keep coming our way. As long as we keep adapting and evolving, our game will not only survive, but also blossom.