Category Archives: Market-Edge

Market Ability

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Hammers…

…hammer.

That’s their job.

They do a good job, at hammering.

At times, the market behaves like a hammer.

Market players learn from hammerings.

Question is, can market players learn without being hammered?

I don’t think so.

One can psych oneself into believing otherwise, I’ll give you that.

And, for a while, things will look like all’s good.

Point is, one isn’t looking for the hammer, …

… the reason for which being, that one has never experienced one.

That’s when the hammer falls, when and where one is least expecting it.

It is better to undergo a hammer event in the early days of one’s market career, and while one’s young.

Young – because – a). one plays small when one’s young, mostly by default, owing to there not being ample access to fund supply. Also, b). in the early days of one’s market exposure, the bulk of one’s mistakes and miscomprehensions emerge. The combination of these two facts a). and b). leads to losses that are bearable (youth has backups, like parents). In our youth, we tend more to brush it off and move ahead, full of energy. Yeah, youth has the energy, and time (upcoming multiple market-cycles), to not only emerge from a hammer, but to go on to prosper from the now ingrained learning.

Issue starts when our corpus is big and we still don’t know what a hammer is.

Issue compounds when we then confuse our ability to implement money into markets, in an effort to make it work, with actual market ability.

What is market ability?

It all starts with risk profile.

Some people die without having recognized their risk profile

Then, after having recognized one’s risk profile upon encountering some hammers and seeing our bodies and minds react to these, we move on to systems.

From development to fine-tuning to implementation of a system, we keep chipping and chiselling away at our strategy. We emerge with one that has an edge. We continuously work to keep our edge profitable.

Simultaneously, we throw in risk management. Development of an emergency fund is part of this.

Discipline.

Regimen.

Rules.

Let’s throw in some unpredictability, on purpose.

After putting one system on semi-auto, we work on another, and so on and so forth. We use our profits to diversify and make ourselves more secure, ideally anti-fragile.

Market ability is a successfully implemented combo of all these factors and perhaps more.

It includes being a good human being at home too. There’s no question of letting out the effects of a bad market day on one’s family members. We’re stopping all market action before anything like this develops. Harmony paves the way for another serene market day…

…about to dawn.

A-Gamers

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Hey, …

…nowadays, …

…we only play our A-game.

There’s no time for formalities.

It’s late in the day.

All weapons are out.

This is the need of the hour.

So, what are the salient features of our A-game?

A well-forged, multiply-faceted, time-tested road map – our system of systems – our one Strategy. This one’s 360 degrees. It incorporates both trading and investing, and leads to very long holds in cost-free form. Includes more than twenty highly competitive, sharpened, edge-providing Modules, about which I wrote a few articles back. As far as strategies go, we are cruising in a Maybach on the Autobahn. No worries there.

Patience. In the last twenty odd years, we have learnt how to sit. Makes biggest money, said we know who. Patience is ubiquitous, or is it? Many people have developed it. Many are born with it. But then, many are not. And, markets demand their own kind of patience. Over the years, we have learnt and developed market-patience. We wait for our levels before acting. We sit on our Cost-Free-Ness, like, forever. We are not in a hurry. I ‘can behave’ as if this is my own module 🙂 (do allow me the indulgence), but patience is universal and out there for everyone to incorporate and exploit on their own.

Liquidity. This is a module. Am reiterating it here since it is key. Our initial small-entry-quantum strategy (remember, that’s how we started!) allowed us ample liquidity, always. Yes, we were always liquid in situations, when they came, while building up the backbone of our portfolios. Slowly, portfolio-size started to grow. Then came the incorporation of position-sizing, thanks to my learnings from Dr. Van K.Tharp. Subsequently, I instinctively added my own twist to this, making it Non-Linear Position Sizing (NLPS) that we follow. NLPS initially allows for small entry quanta. As portfolio-size increases, so does each entry quantum-size. However, the latter increases more than y = x, i.e. more than linear. This means that over the very long term, entry quanta become remarkably substantial in size. Nevertheless, we still maintain balance by perhaps Fine-Tuning entries and exits to the nth level, i.e. with huge win probabilities, which automatically / mathematically leads to lesser entries. Strategy thus goes on cruise-control. Furthermore, outstanding entry-prices, followed by Quick Generation of cost-free-ness make our very long-term holdings as Anti-Fragile (thanks for the term, Mr. Taleb) as possible.

Talking of cruise-control, our back-end allows for full Automation at button-clicks. All transactional trail-mail is auto-forwarded to every required avenue. It’s a one-time self-setup time-expense, so don’t be afraid of it, since the reward is disproportionately huge. Each avenue allows preview and further transfer / storage after button-clicks. Taxation? Button-clicks. Indexing? Button-clicks. Retrieval? Button-clicks. Viewing in any format? Button-Clicks (baby).

Time. We have all the time in the world. We do our own thing. Income is sorted. Wealth is being generated on auto, and is multiplying. Learn languages. Travel. Pro-bono. I teach kids. To manage their own finances. From a young age. Currently I’m teaching four kids. It’s a give-back, and they can pay it forward.

In a nutshell, that’s my A-game. I’ve taught it forward, so I can talk about a we. You’ve seen it develop in this space over the last 14+ years. I’ve nothing to hide. It’s for everyone to use and benefit from. The act of Giving gives me the most Satisfaction in life.

2050?

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Yes.

Why?

Why what?

Why 2050?

Growth trajectory.

Whose?

India’s.

What about it?

Spurts with bottlenecks. Not linear.

So?

Will take 2050 till fruition.

Meaning, for you?

Quest for multibagger accumulation will be successfully achieved.

By 2050?

Yeah.

Anything else?

My own trajectory.

Will you be around?

Not relevant.

Why?

I’ll leave the assets as my legacy.

To whom?

Family. Country. Charity.

Striving and then leaving it?

Doesn’t cause me any reaction.

Why?

It’s cost-free.

Meaning?

My principal is not invested. Pulled it out in profit. What remains in the markets is cost-free. I live and enjoy my life on my income, simultaneously creating a cost-free legacy. The cost-free-ness tricks my mind into an eternal hold. I stop jumping. Vicissitudes of price path have no meaning for me once something has become cost-free.

And why stop in 2050?

Growth culmination. India enters first-world territory. It becomes difficult to create multiples fast. Life is far more efficient, and so is price, then. Loopholes are filled in by artificial intelligence before an EoD chap like me can react. Info-flow is so fast and transparent, that everybody knows. Everyone is smart because they use the appropriate tools. Since all money is smart, there’s no edge anymore. But that’s 2050. Today, oh, there are edges. Inefficiency lasting longer than EoD. Sometimes lasting months. Loopholes. Pattern related. Operator related. Price related. AI is not fully there yet. Most market players are not smart, I think the official statistic reads 88%. Almost all tools look at the wrong stuff. By the time one reacts to indicators, which are a function of price, most of the edge is gone. Information-flow is not fast enough, and if you can read it in the numbers or the chart before it happens, the edge is huge. And, forget about transparency. It’s just not there. We’re sitting of big edges currently.

So, 2050, stop, and then what?

No idea. Let’s go with the flow. Right now the flow is leading up to 2050.

And what if there are world-shattering events before that?

We buy. We are almost always highly liquid. When we’re not, we start creating liquidity. We are never illiquid. 2050 is just a number. We have numbers to go on, like lamp-posts. It’s another lamp-post, like 1984, or Y2k, or what have you.

Do you want to be the person remembered for 2050?

That’s not even a question for me. I’m flowing with 2050 because that works for me. I don’t care about the rest. If you wish to think with that mindset, that’s on you.

Why rude?

Nothing rude or not rude about it. 2050 is part of my framework. Nothing more, nothing less.

I see.

Shareware – When Everyone has Access

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Hmmmm…

…what is…

…and what isn’t?

Is technical analysis 1.0.1 still valid?

Why has this question arisen?

What is it about shareware?

Basics never go away.

One always falls back to basics.

Having said that, basics can be made to appear a certain way.

Why?

So that a newbie recognizes a pattern and acts.

Does that render the shareware useless?

NO.

One learns how to use shareware.

Combining a basic candlestick pattern with volume and open interest, for example…

…renders the shareware back as useful.

However, we are now moving in the sphere of technical analysis 1.0.2+ .

Moral of the story?

Don’t believe what basic shareware is telling you as is.

Back up your observation with multiple factors.

Aligning combinations?

Sector behaviour?

Broader market?

Market rhythm?

Cycle?

Domestic sentiment?

International what have we-s?

Psychology at play?

Get a feel for the goings-on.

It’s ok to pay for market software and set it up with multiple edges, rather than use plain vanilla free- or shareware.

Why?

Edges…

…translate into money.

Even an alert is an edge.

20 alerts are 20 edges.

Freeware not allowing any alerts?

Well, rethink, Mr. Scrooge.

Spend on quality, to make multiples later.

Let’s get out of the freebie mentality…

…since we wish to strike it big with the markets.

Wishing all lucrative market play!

🙂

SystemPower

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Life moves…

…from system to system.

We add value…

…at every step.

One breathes easy after setting a system on auto.

While setting the system on auto, it’s the process that drives us (Neo).

Process gives quality to life. Enjoyment emanates.

It’s this enjoyment that we carry forward. Rest, all of it, stays behind. This enjoyment, and the memory of it, is our earning that lasts, eons.

Systems can be applied to all walks of wife.

Deciding not to have a system in an aspect of life…

…is also a system.

Why?

You decide to…

…not do something…

…if a particular situation arises.

Keyword is…

…’decide’.

The more important questions here are…

…whether you have stuck to your system?

Did you refrain from acting?

Did sticking to process evolve you?

Were you thrown out of your comfort zone?

Did you enjoy getting tossed around?

Sometimes we do. It teaches and equips us for bigger game. We enjoy exploits in the bigger game after having learnt from the turmoil in the smaller game.

Whatever cooks your recipe.

Permute…

…combine…

…and devise…

…the optimal chronology for yourself.

Yeah, optimize the system…

…and don’t stop optimizing…

till you’re ready to leave such system on auto.

Wonderful.

You now have so much confidence in your newly fully optimized system, that you actually leave it functioning on auto, and move on to use your life to keep adding further value.

Eventually, life becomes an ensemble of powerful systems.

Remember, some of these are no action systems too, so you’ve got that base covered, yeah, this line was for the critics 🙂

Occasionally, systems malfunction.

Then, we fine-tune.

Or, we discard, and create anew.

The power at your disposal when a system functions successfully, on full and on auto, is immense.

Imagine a life with multiple successful systems functioning on full, and on auto.

Apart from all the pluses that emerge in such a life, there’s something I wish to focus on.

Systems on auto means spare time after achievement.

Using this time to do something even more meaningful is what attracts me.

Eventually, all the value addition starts to benefit not only you but also the people in your environment, your city, your country, and…

…the entire world.

🙂

Nath on Trading – V – Make that a Hundred

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81). Paper trading has limited value.

82). That’s because money on the line activates your emotions.

83). Is there a holy grail? No. Stop looking for it.

84). Small edges taken to the nth – that’s what cuts it.

85). Most advisories make more money advising and less money trading.

86). Many advisories ignore sheer basics such as risk : reward.

87). Advisories are after commission and management fees rather than your long-term benefit.

88). If you’re lookig for an advisory, look hard, and don’t be afraid to keep rejecting till you find someone who knows the game and is not greedy.

89). Everything is out there, for you, for the taking, on the internet.

90). Most of this everything is free, if you just make that extra effort to get it.

91). Disclosure laws are so strict, that you can get into the un*erp*nts of a management today, literally at the speed of thought.

92). Thus, to play the market, any market, all you need is funds, due diligence and a device.

93). Due diligence gives you confidence to hold the line.

94). Funds need to be saved first. What goes into trading is that portion of your savings which you are not going to need – at all, at best.

95). Your device needs to become a seamless extension of you. Work on your device till it becomes that.

96). The best ideas are born in silence.

97). The best ideas are also the simplest in nature.

98). Sophistication is a net-net loser’s game.

99). If you’re doing it right, and if you’re not a day-trader by profession, trading takes up only a small portion of your day.

100). Life has myriads of avenues, trading being one small such aspect. Being a trader doesn’t mean losing out on life’s countless drawing boards. Trade. Fine. Live too, and live well. Do all-round justice to your opportunity.

Moving away from the Greeks

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I’ve never been to Greece.

I have nothing against people from Greece.

I don’t like Greeks, though.

Yeah, I’m an options player.

The Greeks I don’t like are options Greeks, he he he…!

What, you thought I didn’t like actual Greeks?

Come on, I’m sure I’ll love Greece and actual Greeks!

When you don’t like something, you can try to go around it.

I don’t need options Greeks to play options. I’ve found a way around the Greeks.

I’m sure others have discovered this too, because truth is truth.

Let me tell you about it.

You’re buying in the direction of the long-term trend.

You’re buying (calls / puts) after a significant correction / rally level has been hit.

You’re buying post a small move in the direction of the long-term trend, after the correction / rally level has been hit.

You’re buying out of the money to compound the cheapness.

You’re buying with breathing space on your side, so that the trade has enough time to pan out in your favour.

You’re not booking without a very solid reason, once the trade is running in your favour.

You’re trying to book (deep) in the money.

You must, must, must let your profits run as long as you can. This is the toughest part, but also the most essential one.

That’s all.

No Greeks.

Just common sense.

So… Where do Options Fit in?

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I’m on the move.

I play the markets.

How do I combine these two facts?

Life didn’t give me a desk job.

It did give me an appetite for risk, though.

Another two facts to be combined…

I like doing new stuff.

I don’t like following old norms.

You got it, another two facts…

I like breathing easy.

I want to participate, though.

I don’t mind losing… small…

… as long as I can win big too…

… without risking too much…

… facts, facts, facts.

What’s the one common denominator?

Options.

What do options mean to me?

– an auto-stop that doesn’t need to be fed in daily.

– low risk market participation.

– freedom to be on the move.

– freedom to not look at the markets for many days in a row.

– implementation of new poker-like strategies with huge reward : risk ratios…

– … for which the price is time-component corrosion of the option premium.

– peace of mind.

– the satisfaction that markets don’t rule my day.

– a very challenging arena that pushes my faculties to the maximum.

– an avenue that teaches me about singular stocks, their nuances, how they move, basically their nervous system… this is invaluable knowledge, which no university is capable of teaching.

I could go on.

Explore your options.

Discover Options.

Two Minutes of Freedom

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Why have you come?

Meaning, why are you here? What’s the purpose of your earthly sojourn?

Do you want to do something new?

No? How boring is that?

Why would you just want to live and leave with nothing original to your credit?

At times, I feel the urge to discover something earth-shaking.

Don’t you?

I mean, don’t you want to go where no human has gone before?

Whether we are successful or not is not the point.

At least we possess this desire.

And that’s where freedom of thought comes in.

You are born free, to think.

No one can steal that freedom from you, even in the worst conditions of bondage.

Use your freedom.

Think freely, even if it’s for two minutes a day.

Lose all shackles, as a rocket in space loses a burnt surplus engine. Define your own path, and think freely on that path. Develop it, bit by bit.

Slowly, your thought will take form. A whole system of work will emerge. Keep developing this.

Your system will take you places. For example, if you’re playing the markets, it’ll win you money.

It is new, it is original, it is your system, and it can well take you where no human has gone before.

Well done, keep going … … and it’s all happening because of the two minutes of freedom you allowed yourself.

The Cat that Survives Curiosity

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So, what are the Joneses upto?

Or the Smiths?

Naths?

You know something, who cares?

You’re trading, right?

Fine, then just mind your own business, and focus on your return.

I mean, people, let’s just go beyond poking our noses into others’ businesses.

Don’t we have our own businesses to take care of?

Isn’t that enough for us?

If not, and if we start poking around, seeing what kind of return XYZ has made, or for that matter how many winning trades ABC has pulled off, well, we are doing ourselves a great disservice.

For starters, we don’t seem to have much confidence in our own trading system, if we’re poking around like that.

You should be pulling off the winning trades, you.

And XYZ’s or ABC’s performances should have no meaning for you.

They are trading according to their system. Let them be. What’s good for them is not necessarily good for you.

You are trading according to your system. Period.

Not minding your own business can seriously affect even a successful system which has temporarily hit a string of losing trades.

Random losses in a row happen. A winning system can well yield ten losses in a row, for example. Improbable, but not impossible.

Ask a coin, which functons at 50:50. On average, you’re flipping heads and tails equally. Nevertheless, you could land heads (or tails) ten times in a row over many, many coin-flips. Part of the game. Accept it.

Since you have a system, you’re functioning well beyond 50:50, right?

Thus, chances of a large number of losses in a row are even lesser for you.

Tweak at your system if you feel it’s lost its market-edge.

To remind you, an edge starts occurring when one functions beyond 50:50.

After a while, one gets bored, and tells oneself, that from now on, one wants to function at 55:45 and beyond (for example), come what may.

One then tweaks at one’s system, and raises the bar.

Tweak at your system if you feel the urgent need to raise the bar.

Keep raising the bar to your comfort level.

Leave other people alone. Don’t bother with their systems. Focus on your own trading.

Be the cat that survives curiosity.

Coin-Flipping in the Marketplace

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Are you good at darts?

Actually, I’m not.

I’ve even removed all darts from our home. Hazard. Children might hurt themselves. Yeah, yeah, I know, I’m paranoid. Tell me something new.

Well, just in case you fancy playing darts, here’s a market exercise for your consideration.

Take a newspaper section, and pin it on the wall.

I know, I know, you’d love to take pot shots at your favourite corrupt politician’s picture. Please feel free to do so, let out all your venom. When you’re done, we can resume with the market exercise.

Now substitute whatever picture you’re shooting darts at with the equity portion of your newspaper’s market segment.

Take a dart. Shoot.

You hit some stock or the other. Let’s say you hit XLME Systems.

Now take a coin. Flip it.

Go long XLME Systems if you flip heads. Short it if you flip tails.

You have a 50:50 chance of choosing the correct trade direction here.

This is still a winning system, if you manage your trades with common-sense.

Cut your losers short, quite short, yeah, nip them in the bud. Let your winners ride for as long as you’re comfortable.

These two sentences will turn your little darts cum coin exercise into a winning market system.

Try out a 100 such trades, coupled with proper, common-sensical trade management. You’ll see that you are in the money.

Now, whoever turns towards me and starts to talk about trading systems, well, that person needs to be very crystal clear about one thing.

He or she needn’t bother discussing any trading system with worse results than the above-described trading system.

I mean, come on, people, here’s nature, already presenting something to us which doesn’t require any formal education, just an average ability to aim, fire, flip, trade, and manage with common-sense. This small and natural system is enough to keep us in the money.

So, if we want to spend any time discussing trading systems with an edge, we need to be sure that these systems are functioning at beyond 50:50. At par or below is a waste of time.

Good trading systems with a market-edge function at 60:40.

In the Zone, you maneuver your evolving edge to function at 70:30 and beyond.

Frankly, you don’t need more. You don’t need to function at 80:20 or 90:10. Life at 70:30 is good enough to yield you a fortune.

Getting to 70:30 is not as difficult as it sounds. First, get to a 60:40 trading system. Out of every 100 trades, get the trade direction of 60 right. Comes, takes a bit, but comes eventually.

Now you’ve got your good trading system with a decent edge, it’s working at 60:40, what next? How do you extract that extra edge.

Well, tweak. Adapt. Fine-tune. Till your edge becomes that something extra.

Still want more?

If yes, the game becomes a story about you. How disciplined are you? Are you with the markets regularly, as a matter of routine? Are you with the flow? Can you sense the next move? Are you slipping into the Zone? Can you stay in the Zone for long periods? Once you slip out, can you get back into the Zone soon?

The answers to these questions lead you to 70:30 and beyond.

Learning to Draw

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Life’s about reaching out.

There’s not a single bridge that’s been built without someone having to reach out first.

A child connects the dots of life to find that it’s looking at a roadmap. Walking on a known parameter is then easy. One knows where to tread.

Mrs. Market is a conceited lady.

She needs you to reach out to her.

Till you don’t, she doesn’t care about your existence either.

When you do, she starts concerning herself with you, but only after you make the first move towards her.

You have to take the first step. You have to build the bridge.

In the world of trading, you do that by putting on a trade.

Given that you don’t want to lose your pants to a tough cookie like Mrs. M, you need to first look at the stuff that’s working in your favour. Before reaching out, that is.

You are able to connect to her with hardware. As long as the hardware functions, there are no further issues there.

The approach with which you connect is your strategy. It has been developed upon observing the behaviour of Mrs. M, and as her behaviour has changed from time to time, so has your strategy reinvented itself in tandem. The software with which you programme your strategy has highly maneuverable algorithms that are able to alert you instantly upon any of Mrs. M’s behavioural changes. Once you’ve identified her pace and style of movement, you know what kind of a bridge you need, to connect with. You know what kind of a trade you need to put on.

Putting on the proper trade at the proper time is the name of the game. When Mrs. M is trending, your trade time-frame, trade-size and stop are all different from when she is moving in a range. When she is falling, the pace of your trade needs to be fast, real fast. Your instrument needs to be options, not pure equity, since the latter is tougher to move through. When she is flat, take a break, don’t build any more bridges for a while.

Each bridge, that you are capable of building, should give you an edge over Mrs. M. If that’s not the case, then the bridge is faulty, for even a coin-flip is giving you an even-steven 50:50 shot at Mrs. M. Therefore, your bridges need to be in the 60:40 plus category. Bridges take time and effort to build. Thus, they must yield you ample profit once they have been built.

After a while, she gets bored with your approach, and changes her pattern. Your bridge is not able to connect well. You notice this when your trades start going awry. Your systems need to adapt, and new bridges need to be built to account for her new avatar.

And what is this whole exercise?

Just like the child who connects the dots, you are learning to draw at Mrs. M.

And you’re doing it well.

You’re drawing at her with systems that give you a good edge as long as they work. When they falter, you tweak them to adapt to her, so that they continue to allow you to draw at her with an edge.

You don’t draw at Mrs. M without an edge. Period.

If you can learn this one basic fact, you’ve learnt a lot.

Moving on to a Higher Table

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You’ve started to rake in regular profits on your poker table, or, if you will, on your regular trade-size.

Common-sense now tells you, that you need to scale it up a bit. After all, you’d still be risking the same percentage of your stack-size per trade. Simultaneously, if your win-ratio remains constant, you’d be allowing your stack to grow at a faster pace.

You move on to a higher table.

Welcome to the concept of position-sizing.

Those who position-size can evolve into huge winners in minimum time. Even though the idea of position-sizing is so central to trading, it is still one of the most under-discussed of topics. We need to thank Dr. Van Tharp for teaching this concept properly.

Think about it. When you win, your principal increases. On the next trade, you then put the same principal percentage at risk like you’ve always done. Because your new principal was more, it allowed you to buy more. Thus, you put yourself on the line to win more.

What’s essential here is also to down-size your position when you are losing. Taken a few bad beats in a row? Move down to a lower table for a bit, man. Allow your stack to recuperate at this lower level and then some before moving back higher. With that, when you’re losing, you start to risk less. Crucial point.

Of the different methods available to you to position-size, here, we speak about increasing trade-size when a new trade starts.

The advantage you enjoy when you’re doing pure equity is that on each new trade, your position-size can pinpointedly be adjusted according to your stack-size. Scale-up, scale down, trade upon trade, as the situation demands. Beautiful.

Why does this work out so beautifully for you?

You see, your system gives you an edge. You are opening your positions on high-percentage winners only. Period. Simultaneously, you are cutting your losses at your pre-defined maximum. You are also allowing your winners to win more. And, you are taking your stops. Even if your system then gives you a 55:45 edge over Mrs. Market, you’re doing great. Over a large sample-size (many, many trades, or for that matter many, many poker hands), your stack will increase with a high level of probability. As it goes on increasing, you keep turning on the heat by increasing your position-size further and further.

What happens then? What do you see?

Something beautiful happens.

Your trading principal (what we’ve been calling stack-size all the time) starts to increase exponentially. Have you seen the progress of an exponential function as one travels from zero to the right on the x-axis (the x-axis here would stand for sample-size or the number of trades taken)? If not, check it out on the net.

A good system should give you a 60:40 market-edge. In the Zone, you’d probably trade at 70:30 or beyond. That’s 70 winning trades out of every 100 taken, and 30 losing ones. Imagine what that does to your trading principal over 1000 trades, if you adhere to position-sizing, let your winners ride and take your stop-losses.

The numbers will boggle your mind.

Go for it.

Burn-Out Notice

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Information overload.

Short circuit in the brain.

Black-out.

You want to move your left hand, but the right one reacts.

Your body needs re-wiring, and rest.

This set of circumstances comes with the territory of trading. Often.

Imagine plugging into the complex matrix of erratic market play. That’s what happens when your trade gets triggered. Your poor nervous-system then deals with a lot of load, which doesn’t recede till well after the trade. Joy at profits, sorrow at losses, life is one big emotional pendulum. And this is just one trade. A sluggish trader might take one trade a week. The over-active one could trade many times in a single day.

What are we dealing with here?

Basically, the writing on the wall is quite clear. If you’re not able to regularly offset the damage to your system due to trading, you’re looking at early burn-out. As in, very early burn-out.

Your method of recuperation needs to bring your system back to its base-line, and then some. Your recuperation savings account needs to be in the black, as much as possible. That’ll ensure longevity in the trading arena.

What happens if you are drained, and the next trading opportunity comes? For me, the answer is crystal clear. Don’t take the trade. Rest. Recuperate. You would have played it wrong anyway. You were drained even before the trade, remember?

Sometimes, periods of recuperation can be long. At these times you need to stop comparing yourselves to other traders who find unlimited energy to keep trading, from God knows where. You are you. They are they. Who gave you the right to compare? Why are you judging others playing to a different plan with different energy and time-set parameters. If you really want to judge, then judge yourself. That’s it.

So, if a prolonged recuperative time-frame announces itself, respect it.

Your system will last longer in the game.

Trading is about sticking to the ground-rules, and then lasting. Your market-edge plays out only over a large number of trades taken over a long time-frame. Over the long run, your market-edge makes you show winning numbers, because the sample-size is big enough, and the time-frame under consideration is sufficient for many big-hitter trades to occur. Your big-hitter trades give a tremendous impetus to your numbers.

Even the best of edges can show a loss over a small sample-size (i.e. number of total trades taken in one’s trading career). It’s statistically very possible to suffer ten losses in a row, for example. You can call a coin-flip wrong ten times in a row. Possible. And that’s a 50:50 shot per flip. Your market-edge gives you a 60:40 shot, or maybe even a 70:30 shot. Still not good enough to not suffer a losing streak.

Winning streaks occur with time, and with supportive sample-sizes. Because of your edge, the winning streaks outnumber the losing streaks.

In the world of trading, if you want to win, you need to last.