Category Archives: Opportunity

Cluster of Blessings

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Hey.

We realized…

…that what we’re doing…

…is anti-fragile in nature.

How, you ask.

Since what we’re doing is in stocks. Equity. Robust at best. Not anti-fragile.

?

Well, take a definition, and expand it a bit, and the definition starts to make broader sense. One draws on the definition, and creates a utility for that definition in one’s own line of work. That’s what we’ve done. Creator of the term anti-fragile, Mr. Taleb, could turn around and say, hey, you’ve just taken my thing and used it in your thing. Of course we’ve done that. We stand on the shoulders of giants, giants like Mr. Taleb. And now we’ve got his thing, projecting onto our thing, making something new out of our thing. Bottomline, we have a thing that is anti-fragile, and Taleb gets credit for his thing starting to develop universality, at least across another asset class.

So how are we doing stocks in an anti-fragile manner?

We benefit from chaos, volatility, uncertainty, fear and the like.

How?

Before these conditions cause mayhem in stocks, we have gravitated, in a growth market, over the years, to exhibit meaningful holding power. Both mentally, and financially. So, what do we possess before topsy turvy conditions, like now? Holding power.

What else are we armed with?

Liquidity.

Liquidity is a state of mind. Our state of mind causes us to be liquid at the right time.

Next.

We have…

…high conviction. In a basket of market players. Our due diligence regimen, over decades, has allowed us the means to recognize such stocks. In these, we have developed what?

High conviction.

We are itching to buy these underlyings, at huge…

…margins of safety.

Cut to current conditions. Chaos, volatility, uncertainty, fear, war, maniac, missiles, nuclear threat and what have you.

The margin of safety that we look for starts to abound. We accumulate high conviction underlyings, over multiple buys, ending up with low buying averages.

As conditions amplify, buying averages get lower. We are benefiting from chaotic conditions in that our buying averages are getting lower and lower.

Perceptions change for the better. They always do. Gone is 1929, where it took the better part of two decades for circumstances to change. Till 2019, one used to talk about max 15 to 18 months being the length of a bear market. Information flows very fast. When efficient, whenever that is, markets are then super-efficient. Factoring in is taking days, perhaps only a day. A change in perception is incorporating very, very fast. Frankly, we’re talking months, not even years. And, we’re mentally and financially prepared, with our holding power, for a time-frame measured in years.

Comes the turnaround. Sooner than later, such are the times.

Our low buying averages multiply fast. In fact, very fast. The lower they are, in our high conviction holdings, the faster they multiply. We start to hold many 2-baggers in 3 to 6 months, for example.

Now we call the shots. In fact, our very low buying averages do.

We can choose to pull our principal out, full 100%, at 2x, 3x, 4x, 5x or what have you, depending on our muse.

The moment we go cost-free, we have moved into 100% margin of safety. Nothing can break our cost-free-ness (except ourselves). We can choose to leave our cost-free-ness to our children, by which time it will have majorly compounded. Since we have no principal invested in our cost-free-ness, we won’t be in a hurry to liquidate it. In fact, we won’t even be looking at it.

We’re calling our low buying averages anti-fragile. The lower they get, the more anti-fragile they behave in the aftermath of chaos. We’re adding an allowance towards fast incorporation of change in perception to the definition of anti-fragile, because of which our inherently anti-fragile low buying averages get to benefit from their anti-fragile nature (thanks again to Nassim Nicholas Taleb for giving us the framework of anti-fragility).

And what are we calling our cost-free-ness? I mean, it is seeming to be beyond fragility. It is giving benefit beyond any scale. Generational benefit. I don’t have a name for this effect, yet.

Our cost-free-ness has generated generational well-being. It has allowed us to not liquidate it, by the state of mind it has caused in us. It has allowed itself to be passed on.

Hmmm. Taking a phrase from Nichiren Buddhism, it is our…

…cluster of blessings…

…that we pass on…

…to the next generation.

Constants

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Hey.

We play the game…

…with numbers.

Numbers are…

…our thing.

The thing with numbers is…

…that once we create a constant for ourselves…

…a pivot…

…something like a compass…

…AI doesn’t have access to it.

It’s our number.

It’s in our mind.

By the time AI gains direct access to our mind, we’ll be gone.

For example, we establish a low buying average, over many buys, in something we consider to hold value.

Each individual establishes their own, meaning…

…it’s each person’s own low buying average.

It decides the multiple.

It’s the centre-half. The libero. It creates the play. It’s unique to a person. No AI access. The whole game has been taken away from AI. It remains a human game. It’s not what the masses are doing. It’s contrarian. It’s going to make money.

Volatility is a constant.

Disruption is a constant.

Fear is a constant.

Greed is a constant.

Mass-behaviour is a constant.

Pigs getting slaughtered is a constant.

We play it by constants.

We’ve even started using unique mass-logic defying indicators, that only we have defined, that no one else knows about or can dream of, and we’re using them successfully, with no access to AI.

We’re functioning from within a matrix where we control the game, AI doesn’t.

Beauty is, outside of our protective matrix, we have access to all of AI’s capabilities, should we choose to use them.

Not yet though. Specifically after the 160+ girls murder rumoured to be caused by intel provided by AI, correct me if I’m wrong. AI as it currently is doesn’t seem ready for seamless implementation. All those foolishly believing so at this moment are the pigs referred to above. Pigs get what? Slaughtered. I didn’t say this first. It’s a common market saying. Markets are a – constant. We trust constants.

There will be many more blow-ups before seamlessness is achieved.

Think of banking systems causing and compounding massive errors because of blind reliability on AI.

This of AI suggested war strategy backfiring because of lack of understanding of human psyche.

Think of investment strategy imploding, left with eyes wide shut to AI, owing to lack of proper understating of human behaviour and its unpredictability. Anyways, on the plus side…

…think of any level of positive upheaval that AI will cause.

Think maximum.

Thought?

Since we play it by constants, we’ll continue to thrive, maximum disruption and beyond.

Such is the power of constants, that we successfully harness.

Matrix Diaries

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Hey.

I think…

…you’ve pretty much understood…

…that we’re buyers in this whole mess.

I’d like you to add one more word to your understanding.

We’re…

…fearless…

…buyers.

We were not always fearless.

The human being is born with fear built in as a protective emotion.

During the process of rewiring, we wired this emotion out.

How does one do that?

Before I delve into it, wish to reiterate the we.

Who’s the we here?

Everyone who gets taught forward in this space and from this space, and then goes on to implement successfully, that’s the we. Why do such a thing? Gives me a kick. What’s a good life? A collection of meaningful things that give one a kick, implemented repeatedly.

Now imagine a matrix.

We are in the matrix.

Outside the matrix are all things that cause us fear.

Inside the matrix we implement our strategy without fear.

We have built systems that have automatically thrown out of the matrix all things that cause us fear against acting in the markets.

First we created a safety net. An emergency fund. Perhaps two. Out went fear of existence.

Starting with a small networth, we plunged into the markets. Luckily, we tasted failure fast, and lost it all, broken down, emergency fund to fall back on, young, enough energy and will power to bounce back. Now we had a model of how not to do it. We knew where we didn’t want to land up, and understood somewhat how not to do it. The experience of a blow-up and the knowledge of how not to do it made more fear exit the matrix, as we itched to get back into the game.

Slowly we built a system. Incorporated models. Saw what worked. What didn’t work for us exited. Model developed a slight edge. Tasted some wins. Confidence started to grow. As it grew, more and more fear exited.

Then came replication. Would the model work again? It did. Would it work bigger? Scaled up a bit. Working. Till not working. Fine-tuned. Working again. Knew we had something now. Came a black swan and its aftermath. Model excelled. Realized we were anti-fragile. Whatever was left of fear was now outside the matrix. We were tready for all out implementation.

And that’s where we are functioning from in this crisis.

If you say might last a year, no fear, we silently implement. We’re liquid because the model creates liquidity in good times. Two years? Still no fear. Liquidity might run out after 18 to 20 months, probably, but that’s the whole goal, to be fully invested, as per a model in which one has high conviction. Three years you say? We say still no fear.

The biggest money is made by…

…sitting…

…and we didn’t say this first. Someone you look up to did.

We’ve learn’t how to sit. Sitting is an integral part of the model.

While we sit, we do many constructive things. Since we’re investors, while we sit, we invest heavily…

…in OURSELVES.

Do the math.

Fool?

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I don’t mind.

What?

Being called that.

Why?

For me, it’s an indicator.

How?

When someone in my environment expresses that he / she considers me foolish, this acts for me like a guage.

Where?

In order formulation.

Which?

Good till traded orders.

Explain.

Ok. Let’s say someone considered my 787 GTT HDFC Bank entry foolish. With price having fallen to 745, and still not showing signs of stability, someone might consider me foolish for having entered ‘early’ at 787. I want this to happen. I want to sense this attitude in another person’s behaviour.

Then?

Simple. Formulate and enter next GTT for HDFC Bank at 690.

What’s the logic?

That’s just the way I use this indicator.

Position-sized small quantum?

Absolutely.

Considered bulk-entry at bottom?

What’s the bottom? Who claims to know the bottom?

499?

No idea. How do you know you’ll catch the bottom? What if you miss entry altogether?

What if I get full entry in lumpsum, at 499?

What if price stays below 400 for a month after that? Your lumpsum entry will hardwire you to your terminal, and it’s one month of sleepless nights, I can promise you that. Neurosis. Psychosis. Freeze. God knows how long it will be before you can take another rational decision.

And your staggered full entry with a higher buying average will not cause all these things?

That’s the whole point. It will not.

It will not? How?

Market psychology is counter-intuitive. When are you going to understand this one basic point? Going in, let’s say ten times, between 800 and 499, over three months, at every new entry, the nervous system forgets older price. It focuses on newer price, not even on buying average. It actively registers one small quantum entry at 499 as per this strategy, and forgets other entries above, at least forgets them well enough to suit the purpose. Bottomline – such a nervous system is poised to avoid neurosis, psychosis and the like.

You’re just making this up.

Try it out. This is what works for me towards full strategy implementation. I am able to successfully fool my nervous system into buying maximum units without setting it up to hurt itself, should the market fall more, and stay lower for longish periods. This is my win, and a cornerstone of my lowering the buying average strategy in high conviction stocks during crises. Tested successfully during CoViD. No more testing. Current crisis is about full implementation. Will keep this buying strategy on through the entire crisis, or till fully invested, whatever comes first.

Why put in everything?

This is money sidelined to go in. It’s not daily resources money, or college fund money, or family expenses money. It is investing money. It’s supposed to go in. What’s better for it than to go in low?

Where is the courage coming from?

High conviction is a state of mind. It’s a reflex. Over time and over many, many studies, observations, behaviour analyses etc., you develop it for a stock. Once you have high conviction in a stock, nothing should come in between you and full entry, if price allows.

Am still trying to decided whether you look foolish or intelligent?

Though I don’t care for your opinion, I don’t mind it either if you give it to me, for I will use the encounter as an indicator.

Is that what you’ve gravitated down to, using ridiculous and self-concocted indicators to navigate the markets?

Doing things which no one else has before sets me up for vindication no one else has gotten before. No more questions, do the math.

Miners

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Hey.

We’re miners.

We mine for…

…margin of safety.

Surprised?

As in, can one mine for…

…something abstract?

Sure, no biggie.

Ok, bear with me on this.

Entry quantum = shovel.

Wedge it in deep enough = Good Till Traded (GTT) Order = Poise.

Emotional sell most likely on open or on close = mined material falling into basket.

GTT executed = margin of safety mined successfully.

All the time?

No. In times like this, specifically, when there’s blood on the streets.

Isn’t margin of safety already available in times like this?

Yes it is. However, we want to mine for extra on top of what is available.

Like your yesterday’s experience with the HDFC Bank GTT hit well below trigger, a couple of seconds after open?

Exactly like that. Oh, there’s another add on.

Tell me.

We buy with a lag.

Meaning?

Let’s say something’s fallen big, and has come on our radar owing to levels broken.

With you. Then?

We let it fall for the whole session, setting up GTT only after the session, and placing GTT around 4 to 5% below close. Time and price lag.

Isn’t that way below?

That’s the whole point. An emotional sell will hit, and then price will stabilize.

What if no hit?

Possible. Good with that. What’s also possible is, there could be no hit for two or three sessions, and then there might result a soft execution. We’ve still mined the extra margin of safety, even though it’s taken us a few more sessions.

What was your experience with the recent HDFC bank buy?

GTT was set up on 2nd March, for 809, when price was at 887.

Just fishing in the air or what?

Didn’t want it at 887. Wanted it at 809. That’s all there is to it.

So, 78 points were mined, that’s almost 8.8%, wow!

Hold on. There was so much emotion in play, that scrip opened at 770, a massive 72 points below previous close, order triggered at 773 a second or two later, and was executed at 778 after some more seconds. So that’s about 12.3% mined. It took 17 days and 13 trading sessions. By the way, the extra 12.3% mined goes a very long way.

Explain.

In 25 years, at 15% per annum compounded, it compounds to 4 times plus the entire sum that’s gone in just now.

Tremendous!

Welcome to the world of compounding, and that of…

… mining.

Cared to Rewire?

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Hey.

From this point onwards…

…it all boils down to…

…stamina.

Theories for market success have been out there, in abundance, since eternity.

Everybody can read how the richest man in Babylon…

…got rich.

Or how compounding works.

Position-sizing.

Entry quantum.

Margin of safety.

Profit run.

Multibaggers.

Engines of income generation.

Entry into the territory of wealth.

Generational wealth-creation. Etc.

Yes. Everybody can read. Or listen. Or both.

Question is…

…how many can follow through?

Of those who set out, how many can remain grounded and focused when the heat is turned up, like now?

Most importantly, how many can finish?

I would estimate that a low single digit percentage walks the talk to successful culmination.

Why?

You see, heat does something critical.

Once it is turned up, it burns out all nervous systems that haven’t been rewired.

Given that we are not born with nervous systems programmed towards market success, we need to rewire them over the years and over the knocks. Once fully rewired, our nervous systems can withstand, pivot, and generate wealth over prolonged strife.

As this crisis continues, more and more players will start to cave in.

Capitulation at lows.

Others will stop all activity owing to fear, but might not sell. They’ve frozen. Better than capitulation.

There will be some who cash out with the intent of getting in lower, cannot then find the courage when the lows come, and then join their frozen compatriots as the reversal arrives and accelerates.

Still others, with funds safely picked away in fixed deposits, will be afraid to bring them over to Equity. Fine. They are behaving as per their risk-pr0file. At least they are in control of their behaviour.

Rewired market entities will be acting. They know what to buy. Markets give ample time to study, and all kinds of preparation will have been done, like, yesterday. These folks will have started buying upon the arrival of their levels. Clockwork. Small entry quanta. Position-sized as per their risk profile. Programmed to keep entering for a long period. That’s how they will have positioned themselves and their liquidities. These entities will show stamina and will outlast everyone to still be buying at market bottoms and slightly beyond. They will emerge with the lowest buying averages, and will make the quickest multiples upon reversal, after which some will pull their principles out, while others will ride their holdings to multibaggers.

Who do you want to be?

It’s ok if you don’t identify with any of these categories. Find your passion elsewhere.

Or, self-PhD to a rewired market mindframe, sooner than later. Preferably – now. This crisis could even just be beginning. No one knows. Since no one also knows how long it will last, for all you know, you could still get a year or two’s great buying ahead.

Wishing you lucrative investing.

Constants

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Waldermort…

…overplayed his hand.

Thought he had the nuts…

…and bet the farm.

Turns out…

…that the adversary’s hole cards…

…plus the flop, turn and river…

…are leading to a full house.

As opposed to Waldy’s…

…ordinary nut flush.

Waldy is oversmart and a half.

Backfires at times.

This one has backfired at the worst possible time.

Only one result.

Waldy loses…

…everything.

Reserve status.

Serious player status.

Reputation, if there was any.

Loyalty, which was abundant from former allies, but is now…

…not even zero, but minus.

What more can one lose?

Whatever one can. It’s lost.

When this is over, a new methodology of doing everything business and financial will have emerged.

Meanwhile, a few constants remain.

There are areas in the world, where there is growth.

And will be, for the next 25 years.

Like India.

Semblance of stability?

Yes.

Integrity?

Yes.

Win-win attitude?

Yes.

Loyalty?

Yes.

Balance?

Yes.

Clout?

Yes.

Consumption.

Yes.

Period.

Buy India during this fall.

As long as the fall lasts. One year. Two years. Three years. No one knows.

What one also doesn’t know is whether India will give this buying opportunity again.

So, buy India.

Even if it means that you get fully invested during current fall.

That’ll be just great.

Recognition

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Hey.

Don’t cry for me.

I’m doing well.

At times I’m down, when I seek recognition in the outer world, from people, from a country, from an institution, etc.

Since these sources have nuances, I get disappointed at times.

Over the years, have been learning to find recognition elsewhere.

I’ll just share with you where. Before that, let’s speak about every human’s need for…

…recognition.

We have it. Let’s not sweep it under the rug, or deny / ignore it.

Since it’s there, we need to deal with it.

When recognition comes from a worldly source, it is fickle at best. It inflates us, and makes us look for next-level stuff. And…

… it is fleeting.

A tool for manipulation.

Addictive.

Not leading to lasting happiness.

Not aligning with my core values committed to pursuits of good health, happiness, long-term contentment, and efforts towards no regrets.

Therefore – avoidable.

Stopped looking for it in humans or human-related paraphernalia, physical or institutional.

My recognition has been coming in something more natural.

Numbers.

At times in health numbers.

At other times in financial numbers.

In universal numbers.

Don’t have numbers to measure happiness and contentment. Can feel or not feel them though, and that’s a good enough marker. Regrets can be numbered, and eliminated down to zero. That’s wonderful.

Since I’ve chosen numbers to be my source of recognition, my entire focus in the endeavour to feel recognized focuses on health, financial and universal numbers.

Numbers speak to me. If they are recognizing my efforts, they don’t hide it, and I can read their message fast. When they don’t like my efforts, they are outspoken, and I get their drift, hopefully even faster. Even a preliminary health number out of whack? Springing into action to get it back on track, for example.

Downside?

Constant measuring and monitoring causes stress.

Yes, numbers can be stressful, since they trigger stress hormones, especially when they are out of whack.

Remedy?

Quality sleep.

Recovery.

Healthy intake.

Creation of good causes.

Befriending…

…numbers.

Finding a way to not get stressed at unusual numbers.

Like now. When financial worlds are crumbling, what keeps one numerically motivated? It’s the pursuit of a low buying average multiplying upon recovery. Since one has planned and kept oneself liquid for exactly this scenario, crumbling financial worlds are feeling comfortable, because the plan is being implemented. No other reason.

Or like recently. My HbA1C was out of whack. Hadn’t been monitoring for a while. No one’s looking – ok let’s binge…

The upside of constant monitoring is that one sees the effects of a binge immediately, and that alone causes one not to want to binge – the fear of seeing the effects of one’s stepping out of line.

Bottomline – monitoring has upsides, and downsides. The biggest upside is the wooden cane of the teacher, waiting to hit you, should you step out of line. The biggest downside is stressful obsession.

In the middle, there’s a path that brings happiness, contentment – and – recognition, even when one has chosen for oneself that these entities come from…

… numbers.

Take a Bow!

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Hey.

So, what’s our model?

It’s not sector based.

First I thought it was.

I now realize it’s not.

Well, to be honest, our model has various facets.

One of these is on, currently.

Value? Buy. Deep value? Buy.

Objective? Make a multiple fast. Pull principle out. Leave profit in the market for compounding.

Sector?

Doesn’t matter.

Moving on to next facet.

Ok. In range bound markets, what do we do?

No value buying, of course.

Ideally nothing.

However, action does get the better of us, at times, ya, ya, we are all human, and have that video game need. So, in range-bound markets, we do buy, at times, with the objective of making a small profit, slowly. When the profit objective is achieved, principal is pulled out and the profit is left in the market to compound if not required otherwise.

Right. Next facet.

What happens for us in a market that breaks out?

Two things.

First up, we are looking to make a quick let’s say 25%, and then getting principal out. Profit stays in the market to compound, irrespective of the level, ya we have the guts, since that which stays in the market enjoys 100% margin of safety. Secondly, some of the deep value still in the market has made a mega multitude by then, and we can take a call about it. We might or might not liquidate a fraction, depending upon our 2 to 3 year liquidity needs.

Moving on.

What happens to the stuff that gets stuck?

If our world is not falling apart because of that something that’s stuck, that something is and remains for us just another position. Downside is the position going down to zero. Upside is unlimited. We stay or cut, depending on our per saldo existence and / or situation in the world.

Stuff will get stuck. This is the markets baby, not a vacation in Hawaii. [Thought to self – let’s make activity in the markets like a vacation in Hawaii. Hands off, no engagement during market hours, let’s do an Ed Seykota baby, adding a few leg-glances like only handling in GTTs, disengaging after Thursday analysis and market input (3:45 pm to 4:15pm), only to re-engage on Monday morning 8 am to 8:30 am, to punch in GTTs for Monday.]

Very long-term play allows us to work well with even hundred positions stuck, because a handful of lucrative positions will offset these and then some. Perhaps one will even be able to say ‘and then lots’.

Now comes the pointe. This is something I learnt from Dr. Van K. Tharp, God bless his soul. Position-sizing.

Our one entry quantum is a function of our networth.

Make it whatever function you are comfortable with, corresponding to your own networth.

As our networth increases, our one entry quantum increases in size. As our networth decreases, our one entry quantum decreases in size. When we are winning, we set ourselves up to win bigger. When we are losing, we set ourselves up to lose lesser.

Final question – answered here.

Ya, final frontier. We tackle this very maturely.

Why are you getting all this for free?

Free? Please remember, that nothing in life is for free. Not one breath. There always needs to be a karmic field to support an event. No field, no action, meaning this here wouldn’t be taking place.

I’ve taken freely from a lot of people. This is my giveback. Please take freely of this. Don’t feel any burden. All you need to do is to pay it forward, at some stage in your life, when you comfortably can. Help someone in need. Make our world a better place. If perhaps you already are doing so – take a bow!

🙂

Shame, Shame, West

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The next scam is here.

Please don’t get fooled.

Unfortunately, many already are.

You see, the storyline is so, so believable.

However, only on the surface. A few scratches, and the story falls apart.

There is something about human intelligence. Behaviour. Instinct. Decision making prowess. Mental synthesis.

Everything described here, …

… AI is not.

So, why give it that status?

What’s the agenda?

Ohhh, there’s a very solid agenda, and since one can’t fool all the people all the time, we see through the bullsh**.

First up, Western IT is hugely, hugely over-invested. Neck deep. Rational minds in other parts of the world are not. The occident needs ratification and burden-sharing. Orient is not biting. So make it bite. Unleash a scam. Perhaps it was a sop allowed through in the recent trade deal, since some of the spin doctors being utilized are actually Indian.

Secondly, rendered useless? Give us a break. Spun yarns don’t render useless quality, zero-debt, free cash-flow rich, lean, diligent companies. On the contrary, agility and versatility allows such companies to adapt very fast, particularly owing to huge spending power and zero obligations. Indian IT is adapting, FAST, and whatever artificial crashes are being caused owing to the foolishness of pigs, are buying opportunities. PERIOD.

Thirdly, what kind of a track record do the likes of current disruptors have? Like, four years. In other words, NOTHING. Current disruptors have no experience, themselves, in emerging successfully from disruptions. Indian IT has been navigating, SUCCESSFULLY, through all disruptions since the ‘80s. So, like, Western AI, garner a track record first, then talk. Also, an announcement alone, that you are potentially capable of doing XYZ, is not going to cut it.

Please remember, the problem with AI is, everything functions supremely till it doesn’t. That’s the point where the value of human capital is realized, to navigate mankind successfully through and out of the dead end. A dead end in critical ventures is not acceptable. Writing Indian IT off for dead is wishful thinking and reeks of a jealous to the hilt society that fumes with envy at the cash-richness, the zero-indebtedness, the ability to adapt at amazing speeds, the start-up laden clean balance-sheets etc. etc. etc. of Indian IT. Shame, shame, West.

Reflex

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Uncertainty…

…gives rise to…

…options.

Well, if one is liquid.

If not, one doesn’t have the luxury.

If yes, one has the option to act…

…upon the opportunity being offered.

Or, one can choose not to act. To wait. For an even better opportunity.

These are wonderful options.

How did they come into play?

Because of uncertainty.

This trait makes people nervous.

When the masses are nervous, they sell.

This creates selling pressure, …

…leading to falling prices.

These, after considerable falls, create opportune entries.

That’s where we come in, because we are…

…liquid.

Liquidity doesn’t come for free.

One needs to learn how to create it, and one keeps learning this till liquidity-creation has become a reflex. Our financial behaviour, from this point onwards, out of sheer reflex, just sheer generates…

…liquidity, …

…units, …

…soldiers that fight another day, another battle, to, in the future, bring back home their…

…winnings.

Thanks, Mrs. Wonderland

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One must note that…

…Mrs. Wonderland…

…has grace.

Impeccably clothed. Hairdo.

She’s really done her homework.

Fitting in.

After all, it’s a very big occasion.

Something Europe and India sat on for almost two decades…

…has now come to pass.

Such was the enormity of the event, that Mrs. Wonderland’s every move and mood has been subject to intense scrutiny.

There was that snipe directed at the former ally.

Ya, at the one that stabbed Europe in the back.

It would have been a wonder had Mrs. Wonderland not thrown that javelin…

…now that she and Europe are in stable hands. I mean, who could resist throwing the verbal spear at the former ally, especially after the humiliating betrayal which took eight decades to decipher and speak out against.

It’s ok, Mrs. Wonderland, we understand you. And now that we have committed to you, we stand by you. Slates are clean. We have discarded any baggage, and are prepared to do big business with you.

However, we don’t do it with an I’ll show them attitude. We’re not throwing any jibes at your betrayer. He or she is still another business partner for us, whenever he or she comes to the table, in a mood to do business. All interactions, with all business partners, are…

…transactional. Period. No emotions. No nostalgic overhang. Pure business. As you so beautifully put it, win-win. Business doesn’t get larger than win-win. The green traffic-light doesn’t get any greener, as they say in Germany.

Nobody understands it better than you, Mrs. Wonderland, that it’s just business. And it will prosper when left alone. Gone are the days of racism, unnecessary visa harassment, double standards, disrespect and what have you.

Right?

You tell us.

Switched on, these are bad for business. Everything that’s happened is because these are switched off. But you already know all this.

Before we part, one small observation about the title of your interaction with India, “mother of all interactions“, or the like, this one was meant to make your ex-ally wilt, we know, we know, and that’s between you and them. When you deal with us, it’s Europe and India for you, and India and Europe for us; we’re looking at each other straight in the face, not left and right.

Thanks Mrs. Wonderland, one appreciates your affirmative smile, and…

…your style.

Preparedness

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Wealth transfers…

…don’t happen in the exact same way…

…each time.

There’s expectation…

…and there’s reality.

Crowd’s expecting a certain behaviour, or pattern, or event etc., but, in reality, the path that wealth finds, towards its transfer, is kind of unique for the moment that it’s taking place.

Like this time.

Everyone’s expecting a crash.

Or a series of crashes.

Media is full of screamers.

All lobbies are vying for all other lobbies to sink.

Meanwhile, quitely, wealth transfers itself.

It holds on the fear of an investor, and jumps on to the greed of another, or should one say courage?

Yes, courage, actually, because the investor entering is disregarding noise and fear. He or she has imbibed the courage to do so. It hasn’t come for free.

This time round, the screaming is going to continue, it seems, for a few years, till full wealth transfer is complete.

Yeah, what if there is no single crash moment, but a long-drawn-out, slow, irritating wealth transfer?

Are you prepared for that?

Doctrine

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Europe’s feeling it.

Feeling what?

The stab.

Stab?

Ya, in the back.

They’ve realized it…

…now.

A tad late…

…felt a known figure, lately, presumably.

European media had tried to take this personality down recently, with jibes, verbal attacks and what have you.

Thing is, you can’t take a truth down.

That’s the thing about truth.

A half-truth can be taken down, though.

The half-truths that Europe was sold, ya those kinds, they don’t withstand much scrutiny. They’re exposed after only a few thought processes.

What’s incredible is…

…that the gullibles took three quarters of a century to realize that they are being…

…stabbed.

Currently, their leaders are scrambling for safety.

Highest level delegations are in India and Russia, in in effort to form new alliances.

Alliances that promise more safety? Will the ire of the stabber relent?

New deals with India will be win-win. That’s India’s style of doing business. Economic proximity to India will benefit Europe. Besides, India’s vision is long-term, and it targets a prosperous business future with its partners, whilst ignoring their hypocrisy, if any. A long-term business partner will need to let go of double standards and racial mindsets. If not, lucrative nations will look beyond, seeking other more balanced avenues with diverse partners a plenty.

The discussion about India here is not a biggie, to be honest.

Let’s now address the elephant in the room.

Scrambling to Russia?

Yes, one hears that right.

The same Russia… ?

Yes.

Why?

No other options. Need to secure themselves.

They should’ve just agreed to what VP was saying till Jan ‘22. What would that have cost them?

The ire of the stabber.

Oh ya, I forgot. They were so scared of the stabber, and obeyed every word to an exponential level. How can one behave in such a manner?

Well they are paying for it. Mostly, they are empty. Nothing much working. Manufacturing shutting down. Energy supply dwindling, though that was an own-goal.

Ask that South American football player the price of an own-goal.

Don’t bother him, let his soul rest in peace. Coming back to our discussion, there’s poverty in these nations. Right radicalism is either ruling, or is set to rule. Unemployment is rising. Life is getting more and more difficult for the common person. With AI set to go ballistic, most citizens will be jobless. Unless leaders take drastic measures right now, we’re looking at a civil-war kinda situation in the near term.

What’s the moral of this whole story?

I’m going to leave you with just two words. These two words are the moral of this story. These two words are what’s working today to ensure the successful implementation of a nation’s geo-political policy.

And these two words are?

Jaishankar doctrine.

Potent Pioneers

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Hey.

We define our own roadmap.

Own indicators.

Own rules of action.

Own changes to our rules.

Own interpretations of prevailing market rules.

You get the drift. We have our own way of looking at things.

First up, acting on someone’s opinion leaves us at their beck and call.

Then, there’s the thrill, the kick, of defining a path.

And, lastly, but most definitely not ‘least…ly…(?!?)’, since everything on the path is kind of different, we don’t get slaughtered with the masses.

Also, in our own unique way, we have first mover advantage.

We can do all this, because we’re (almost always) liquid.

Liquidity is ammunition. Just ask a soldier what ammunition is worth in battle.

Liquidity didn’t come to us just like that.

We learnt (from many a beating) how to accumulate it.

Now we’ve learnt, …

… and we’re liquid, …

… and we’ve developed our own unique system …

… with its own unique edge.

This makes us…

… potent…

… pioneers.

Opportunity

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Knock knock!

Who’s there?

Oppo.

Oppo who?

Oppo – rrrr – tunity, which don’t knock often (enough).

Yes, huge opportunity is knocking.

Global talent will stay indoors, to a large extent, from now onwards, come this September 21st, i.e. today onwards.

Brain gain time for us.

India is going to boom. Forget about tomorrow, next week, next month, but come medium term, and, going on to the long term, India will shine.

Sure, tomorrow, Indian IT will probably be down. Who’s in it for just tomorrow? One doesn’t get one’s house valued every day, week or year. One might do it when one is contemplating a sale, maybe after twenty years of owning it. Same goes for very long-term held compounders. Like Indian IT.

So, down? Maybe. Out? NO!!! Drag other markets? A bit. Effect to continue? Very short-term.

Beautiful thing is, Indian and possibly other corporates have been working on their plan Bs, and perhaps their plan Cs, and have, slowly but surely, been implementing these.

Also, government is boldly stepping up and refusing to get bullied. Watch out for the measures to be announced that will further boost the economy, to counter this ‘shock’. Thing is, where other nations have started thinking and acting short-term only, India has started to play a longer-term game. One can call it a meta-game.

Bottom-line.?

Time to answer the door-bell, open the door, and let the knockers in.

In my opinion, it’s safe to put one’s money on the line here.

Should Indian IT fall, large quantities of domestic funds will be lapping it up. Smart money will definitely be buying into offered margin of safety.

Why?

Fundamentals.

Clean balance sheets.

Free cashflow.

ZERO DEBT.

High RoE.

Large number of diligently purchased start-ups owned.

AI incorporation and development.

Steady growth.

Technical margin of safety being offered, possibly, tomorrow onwards.

And now, brain gain.

These are some of the big pluses that Indian IT offers.

So, one can easily and calmly go out there, and, with a cool head, put one’s hard-earned money into any margin of safety exhibited by these potential compounders with amazing track records, with a clear-cut goal of generating long-term wealth.

Wishing you happy and lucrative investing!

🙂

Task

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Pockets…

…burn.

Other ones are still stable.

There’s no telling when…

…some of these will start to burn too.

Such are the times, that a new war commences within hours.

Meanwhile, our subconscious immunity to newsflow reaches new highs everyday.

That’s a huge marker for over-confidence.

Those entering propped markets in full flow are showing this trait in vast degrees.

At a time like this, where do we need to be, financially?

A 1.0.1. tenet that applies here is that basic finances need to be at our beck and call. No 48hr+ lags please.

Also, one needs to be in things one understands oneself. Ulterior motives rule amongst all financial institutions in extreme times, and the helm needs to be firmly in our hands, even if part of our finances are in theirs. So, nothing discretionary, please. Don’t leave yourself at the whim and fancy of a fund manager. Funds are yours. You will do a better job, specifically because your lifeblood is on the line.

Let’s plan for…

…entries, …

… exits, …

… continuity, …

… and legacy.

When it comes to personal finance, the job required is nothing short of thorough, solving for all nuances possible and conceivable.

Wishing you happy and lucrative investing!

🙂

Proppers

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Come a crash, …

… we will let it…

…rip.

Toolkit is in place.

Having said that, the thing about crashes is, that when everyone expects them, …

… they don’t come.

If it were that easy, markets wouldn’t be markets.

That’s exactly what they are doing currently, being what they are, markets.

Some are being propped, and other markets are showing resilience, taking any kind of news in stride, and still advancing.

How long can something be propped?

Not forever.

However, longer than most players can stay liquid, that’s how long.

That’s an old market adage.

Eventually, proppers get tired, of printing, circulation, falsification or whatever gimmick they are employing. Mistakes at this level are deadly.

When a propped main market pops, initially it does take down most other markets, but resilient ones recover fast. Propped ones, after the pop, remain down, meaning that they encounter a delayed recovery.

A big pop only means entry opportunities in our resilient market of choice.

There’s no question of fear. This is what we wait for. Margin of Safety. Value. Opportunity.

Entry.

Signposts

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Noise, …

… currently, …

… is deafening.

Posturing, …

… rebuttal, …

… a coup nearby, …

… printing, …

… and what have you, …

… have now become par for the course.

What are the signposts we follow, amidst this chaos?

First up, let’s not be afraid of chaos. Big returns are made exactly there.

We are going to follow high-growth, …

… and specifically, value offered in a high-growth market. Ya, we’ll never get away from margin of safety. It keeps coming back, in one form or another, whether one is investing, or even trading. We use it to get a little better value while entering, facilitated by Technicals. We understand that it’s in volatile times and markets that growth offers value, very temporarily.

Needless to say, basic Fundamentals need to be intact, on the path that we tread.

The governments, and managements we invest in need to show integrity, and develop trust.

We remind ourselves, that high growth is a non-linear entity, and thus we need to stay invested.

We achieve this by keeping our Cost-Free-Ness in the market, like, forever.

We toil to create more and more Cost-Free-Ness.

What this exactly is has been explained ad nauseam in this space, at many earlier instances.

Creation of Cost-Free-Ness means that our principal goes to work repeatedly. Its mini-units are like soldiers that go into battle, bring back winnings, and then they rest, to be deployed another day. If some deployed principal is losing, we wait for it to win. If losses mount, we always have the option to bail it out, or to switch its battle.

The beauty about Cost-Free-Ness is, that since it remains in the field, like, forever, there then is no cap on its upside, in a high-growth market.

Wishing you happy and lucrative wealth-creation!

🙂

Win-Win, Anyone?

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Hey,

Our country just changed lanes.

It’s creating some waves in multiple fields.

India doesn’t posture.

It just…

…does, …

… quietly.

It’s been doing, quietly, for some decades now.

The cup just brimmed over, for the whole world to see, and for friends to acknowledge.

India’s efforts can’t be swept under the carpet anymore, they are just too many.

Sure, long way to go, I agree, but the point being made is that current GDP numbers, and soon to be double digit GDP numbers are encountered on the journey from ‘developing to developed’ phenomena.

Such numbers are not encountered in ‘already developed’ phenomena.

Therefore, anyone wishing to participate in these numbers, welcome, just come, in friendship, and earn some good profits.

However, if some are fuming, with jealousy, then its on them. Stop fuming. Be part of the journey. It’s everyone’s for the taking. India has a large heart. Invest in it. Now.

Don’t waste energy and resources in ventures aimed at derailing India. Instead, use your acumen to earn India’s trust, so that you can partner with it.

Let’s go places, together, in friendship.