Category Archives: Sitting

Happening…or not happening?

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Is that the question?

Hmmmm. 

Valid question. 

On any particular day, we are confronted with this question. Multiple times. 

Life itself throws this question at us often, at pivot-points or crossroads. 

Well, why should the markets be left behind? You guessed it. They portray this behaviour…also. 

Take the cmp of an underlying. 

Is it crossing resistance? Breaking support? Forming a pivot? Peaking? Bottoming? What have you. 

Is whatever’s happening happening or not happening?

What do you do?

Aha. Got you there. Who said anything about doing something? The question about doing something is a wrong question. 

However, it becomes a practical question, because, well, who has patience today?

Yeah, who’s willing to wait and watch, right?

So, in all practicality, what do you do?

First you try not to ask the question. You just observe. 

Then you get jumpy, and do ask the question, simultaneously answering it by telling yourself to wait and watch. 

Next you’re seen egging the markets on for an outcome. 

That’s not good. 

Markets are not going to behave as per your wishes. 

Ok, so here’s the game-changer. 

Change your activity. 

Yes, do something else. 

Put your system on auto-pilot, and engage your mind elsewhere. 

Like I’m writing this article here. 

What’s happening in the backdrop?

My USDINR trade is going nowhere. 

Couldn’t catch a decent portion of the move on the GBP breakout, and now I can’t seem to get a new trade triggered.

My stock-screener refuses to find me a stock in the agri-sector which is to my liking.

My iPad’s gone all wonky and is acting pricy about photo and music syncs. 

Family-health-insurance-premium due…

… got to get that nomination going on my demat…

… AC gas leak…

… document sorting overdue…

… and so on and so forth. 

Meanwhile, I write this article. 

I’m at peace. Writing relaxes me. It benefits the reader too. It’ll live on after me. It is positivity in action. It gives me a sense of purpose. I forget about all the things that are happening and / or not happening. 

That’s what you are going to do. You are going to find an activity that takes you away, to another plane, for just a while, while your other stuff is still undecided. 

There are some things, though, that one needs to make happen. Sometimes one needs to keep pushing. Non-pursuance would be like giving up. 

In this event, you keep banging your head against a wall. 

Two things are going to happen. 

Either you are going to get hurt and back off…

… or, the wall is going to break down.

Yes, I do admit, that there are some very select areas in life that where one decides to bang full-on. 

We’re not afraid. When push comes to shove, we’re all there and ready for some head-banging. 

However, wrt all the other not-so-drastic things, we’re conserving our energies and going to our happy-and-safe-place till these not-so-drastic things are yet undecided. 

Yeah, we’re happier and healthier that way. 

The Benefit of Quantum upon Quantum

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Underlying equity. 

How do you protect against fraud and / or investor-unfriendliness?

You’ve done your research. 

All good. 

Stock is a buy. 

Meets your parameters. 

What’s the next step?

Protection. 

You buy quantum upon quantum. 

You don’t plunge into the stock with all you’ve got to give. 

No. 

You put in a quantum.

Then you wait. 

Better opportunity arises.

Fundamentals haven’t changed. All still good. 

You put in another quantum.

Quantum…

…upon quantum. 

That’s how you keep entering the stock till it keeps giving you a reason to enter. 

Year upon year. 

Between quanta, you’re studying behaviour. 

You’re looking for investor-friendliness. 

Your next quantum is only going in if investor-friendliness continues.

No more investor-friendliness?

No more quanta.

You wait.

Will investor-friendly behaviour resume?

And you wait.

Is it coming?

Yes. 

Good. 

Upon buy criteria being met, next quantum goes in. 

Not coming?

At all?

Ok. You’re looking to exit. 

Market will give you a high to exit. That’s what markets do. They give lows, and highs. 

Wait for the high. 

High?

Exit. 

Try retaining one-off Wealth

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Easy come, easy go…

…am sure you heard that one before…!

When you come into something too easily, you sure do want to spend it, right?

Well, why not?

However, do take that one step back.

Let’s explore the possibilities here. 

You can spend it all. Have a blast. Blow it up. Yeah. We’ve touched upon that. Know many people like that. 

Or, you can save some and spend some. 

How about that?

Who’s asking you to save it all?

No one. 

You like spending?

Fine. Spend. A bit. Gratify your most burning desires without injuring anyone’s fundamental rights. 

Then, save the rest. Pickle it. Look away. Move on with your life. 

Why?

Lady Luck smiled. You got your one-off dose of wealth. Use some of it to make wealth a permanent feature in your life. 

For that to happen you’ll need to invest, be patient, compound, reinvest and what have you, till many many cash flows take care of all your needs. 

From which point did it start?

From the moment you decided to save some of your corpus and provide it with the necessary environment to grow.

It’s a basic decision…

…, yeah, a real simple one…

…that’s tough to implement. 

Try retaining wealth. 

You’ll then know exactly what I’m talking about. 

Wealth-Generators often go Contrarian

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You knew that too, right? 

Sure. 

Going contrarian is a buzz-phrase. 

We hear it again and again…

… till we begin to start thinking… 

… that we know what it means. 

Well, try going contrarian. 

Yeah, try actually doing it. 

You’ll see what I mean. 

It’s real hard. 

Going against the crowd takes all the strength you might have… 

… and then some. 

Most humans aren’t able to go contrarian. 

Most humans aren’t wealthy. 

When there’s blood on the streets, there’s no telling how much more there will be. 

Under such conditions, the contrarian investor lets go of his or her hard-earned money into an investment, knowing perfectly well that the Street might even value the investment tomorrow at a huge discount to today’s price.

That’s ok too, says he or she.

Why?

Because homework’s been done.

Underlying is strong.

Debt-free.

Management is stellar.

Balance-sheet is robust.

Projections are paramount.

That the world is pricing the investment wrongly is a problem with its vision.

Underlying is not going under. With above credentials, this alone matters.

Times change. Vision of the majority changes. Investor makes a killing. Cashes out some, principal and what have you. Leaves lots of free-standing shares… forever… or till parameters change.

Wealth-generators repeat this behaviour-pattern many times in their lives.

They’re not afraid of going against the grain.

They know otherwise.

Also, the money they use has been freed up.

Its being out of action for a long time is not going to change their lives even a bit.

They will have the last laugh.

Wealth is the reward of going contrarian. 

Wealth-Generators know how to Sit

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Most humans don’t know how to sit. 

Most humans are not wealthy. 

If you are a wealth-generator, you’ve probably already made the connection, knowingly or unknowingly. 

You sit. 

You are focused.

You know what you are doing. 

You are confident about what you are doing. 

You don’t keep looking over your shoulder. 

You are not jumpy. 

You don’t require a daily quote. 

In fact, you’re quite happy with a monthly quote. 

You know the value of your underlying. The world cannot tell you otherwise. 

You seal one wealth-generating opportunity, and move on to the other. 

That helps you to sit on the former, while you focus on the latter…

…till you seal the latter, which is when you move on to the next one, and so on and so forth. 

Soon, you are at the pivot of many, many wealth generating ideas. 

You are surrounded by multiples. 

Some have fully matured. 

You bring them to their logical conclusion. If this is a cash-out, well it’s a cash-out. 

You move the funds resulting appropriately…

…perhaps to a new avenue…

…or perhaps to finance something big…

…be it a lifetime-requirement…

…or what have you. 

You recognise the fact that one of the main purposes of wealth is also to fulfil lifetime-requirements. 

Mere income is not able to fulfil these. 

Generated wealth is. 

You recognise that. 

You are a wealth-generator. 

You know how to sit. 

Going for the Multiple 

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Relax. 

We’re not going for the jugular. 

Or are we? 

The jugular has the most copious flow. 

Maybe we are then… 

… going for the jugular. 

However, there’s no stabbing happening. 

We do everything from the inside of our comfort-zone.

We act with harmony. 

Balance. 

Focus. 

Intelligence. 

Common-sense. 

We try and be non-violent about it. 

What are we doing? 

We’re looking to create wealth. 

What makes us look? 

Security. Our basic income secures us. 

Boredom. Adding to our basic income has become boring. 

Overflow. As basic income starts to overflow, it needs a long-term avenue in which it doesn’t demand our constant attention. 

Fine. 

What’s the best way… 

… to go about it?

Where there’s honey, there are bees. 

Finance-people find you. You have money. They have investments. For finance-people, you are bread and butter. 

So, you sit. 

You wait. 

You let them come. 

You’ve got discriminatory-ability. 

You sift. 99% of what comes goes into the bin. 

You like 1%. 

You invest in that 1%.

How much? 

Whatever you pre-define as your per-annum outflow into wealth-creation. 

Only that much. 

What then? 

What’s the bottom-line? 

What’s your holding strategy? 

Nothing. 

You sit. 

“The biggest money is made…

…while sitting.”

You’re not even looking at your long-term investment more than once a month. 

You’re not interested in daily quotes.

The daily quote can say zero. You don’t care. You know that you are in the process of creating wealth, and that it’s going to take long, and within that period you don’t care if the world thinks your holding is zero, because you know it isn’t. 

Why? 

Due-diligence. 

Ability to think differently. 

Ability to see wealth in its nascent stage, and to recognize it. 

You have these things. 

They didn’t come for free. 

You took some solid hits to earn them. 

Yeah, you have what it takes, and that’s why… 

… you’re going for the multiple. 

Dealing from a Position of Strength 

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Next move… 

… should make you stronger. 

If it’s not, you’re wasting your position of strength. 

And, if it’s not, it’s not going to be your next move. 

Think up a different one. 

You had the acumen to gravitate to a position of strength. 

What makes you think that you don’t have the acumen to become even stronger? 

Take your time. 

In a position of strength, time becomes your friend. 

Here, you possess the means to double, treble or what have you your time. You hire quality people, to listen to their sound advice. You don’t have to follow them. However, it’s good to look at quality behaviour while finalizing the next move. Specialists provide you with that service. The specialist you want to listen to first wants to make you some money and then thinks about his or her commission. There are some such ones out there. Find them. 

Reject a hundred specialists. Then choose one that fits your specs. You’re in a position to do so. You’re in a position of strength. 

When time becomes your friend, consolidation comes as a matter of course to you. You consolidate before every next move. Consolidation makes your strength potent. 

You might want to consider some charity. Increase the good vibes around you. Make it a better world. Those in a position of weakness can’t afford to do so. You can. Come on. You’ll feel good about it. Yeah, help someone in a position of weakness. You’ll remain grounded. 

Take time off. Leisure will bring you back with all cylinders firing towards your next move. 

Pursue secondary, even tertiary lines. Disconnect from primary at will. Connect back, again at will. 

You see? 

Position of strength opens up a whole new world for you. 

That’s where you want to be… 

… in a position of strength. 

Work towards it. 

The Promise of Far 

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I like “far”… 

What promises me far? 

Science fiction films. 

The Interstellar, Gravity, Inception and Contact types. 

Such films relax me. 

What relaxes you? 

Have you identified it? 

Why is this important? 

Many times, we must just sit. 

Action is harmful at such times. 

We are tense. 

We suffer from the fallacy, that action is better than inaction at all times. 

Relaxation-source identification is exactly for such times. 

Go ahead. 

Get your acts together. 

Your full acts. 

Your planning needs to incorporate strategies for inaction too. 

“The Promise of Far”  strategy works well for me.

It’s not my only inaction-strategy. 

However, it’s a successful one. 

When Do You Bet The Farm? 

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Bread and butter. 

Safety-…

…-net.

Basics.

You gather yourself to carve out a comfortable life for your family. 

Build-up. 

Debt-free-ness. 

Yeah, zero-debt. 

Feel the freedom. 

Breathe. 

No bondage. 

No tension. 

You have to feel it. 

Surplus. 

First, small surplus. 

Then, big surplus. 

You’ve made sure that nobody ever will remind you to pay your bills. 

Great! Well done. Now… 

… keeping all basics intact… 

… you play with small surplus. 

Risk. Calculated. Digestible. 

Multiplier. 

Loss. Cut small. 

Win. Allowed to grow. 

Small surplus starts giving regular fruit. 

You put back the principal into your family’s basic corpus. 

Repeat. 

Many of your small surpluses have grown into fruit-bearing trees. 

Your farm is bursting with grain and fruit. 

Have you taken any big, indigestible risks? 

No. 

Have you ever put your family basics at risk? 

No. 

Have you ever thought about betting the farm? 

NO. 

Will you ever bet the farm, no matter how big the lure? 

NEVER. 

Lost for Words, Mr. Nath? 

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Yeah, sometimes I really am. 

With very few people, and in very few situations. 

Call it Karma. 

That’s not the point. 

In the event you find yourself in a similar situation, we’re here to size up options. 

What do we fall back on? 

Silence. 

In its solitude, a thought processes emerges. 

What are we looking for? 

Cool, calm straight-forward common sense.

Found it? 

It will speak to you. 

Let it. 

It’s got the words, remember? You don’t. 

Listen to it. 

What’s it telling you to do? 

Difficult? 

Can you do it? A yes is great here. You’re sorted already. 

No? 

Next option. 

Nothing. 

Can you sit tight? Doing nothing? Till your path emerges? Yes is good. 

No? 

Ok. 

Can you stop yourself from doing the wrong thing? 

Wrong? 

Violence, anger etc. You got it? 

How, you ask? 

Occupy yourself with something else more captivating. Possible? A yes here is your last “amicable” option. 

If it’s still a no, you might want to consider new company, or a new environment. 

Sometimes, we get stuck in life. With a person. And / or in a situation. For good reasons, we can’t get out. What’s the silver lining? 

Learning. 

Our difficult situation is ironing out some fault within us. As long as the fault remains, the situation seems desperate. No fault anymore? Situation vanishes. 

It’s called evolution. 

We don’t evolve for free.

Similarly, we don’t learn to navigate through the markets for free. 

Difficult situations teach us. They cost money.

We survive small losses through the learning process, to win big later. We want the learning process to come at an early stage, when the stakes are low. 

The biggest wins come when we use our evolution to capitalize upon a difficult situation, because we know its nuances. That’s good for the markets. 

In real life it won’t pay to take advantage of somebody’s nuances. That’s actually devolving. 

Maintaining perspective between market life and real life is an evolutionary exercise too. 

Let it come, then we’ll see…

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Looking around for an opportunity?

Or letting one come?

Does it matter?

Is there a difference?

You bet!

When you’re looking around, you could be in a hurry. You want to get it over and done with.

Big mistake.

You are vulnerable.

Entry price will be expensive.

Your adversary feels your anxiety and jacks up entry level.

Quality? What quality? You’re in a hurry, right?

Don’t be.

Hurry spoils the curry.

Let the investment come to you.

It will.

Brokers are restless. They want to sell. They’ll knock at your doorstep once they know your funds situation. And, believe me, they won’t ask you about your funds situation. They’ll ask your banker. In fact, your banker could well be on retainer. He’ll make sure that high quality info ups his retainer fee. That’s how it works today. Don’t believe me? How come so many people have your cell number? Did you give it to them? No? Information is a commodity. It can be bought for a price.

So, wait.

Block your surplus funds as fixed deposits.

Get an overdraft going for one fixed deposit.

Delve into your normal activities.

Now you’re sitting pretty.

An opportunity comes.

It’s cr*p. Broker’s hoping you’ll bite into the nonsense being sold.

You tell the broker to buzz off. Lack of hurry gives you the clarity required to act like this.

Something lucrative comes along. Price is right. You overdraft on your FD. Yeah, it’s ok to pay the price for quality with margin of safety.

You can always fill in the overdrafted amount as new funds accumulate. The nominal interest paid for ODing is called opportunity fees. It’s chicken-feed. Just forget about it.

The best investments in life are worth waiting for.

Action Oblique Inaction Upon Field-Proof

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You.

Field.

In.

No theorizing.

Just get into the field.

Act upon field-proof.

Or, don’t act…

… upon field-proof.

That’s just about it.

There’s a time for theory.

It’s to tune your mind.

Learn the ropes.

Baby-steps.

Away from the field.

So you’re yet safe.

Fine.

That stage gets over.

The onus is on you.

Real world is different.

It’s not like theory.

If it were, everyone following theory would be a billionaire.

Today’s professors don’t even put their own money on the line.

If you don’t get a feel for the LINE, your paper-knowledge has no value whatsoever.

On the field, LINE is big. Very big. You have to handle the line well. Otherwise, your money’s gone.

So, gauge the field.

What proof are you observing?

Is it compelling you to act?

Yes?

Act. Forgot about everything else.

Is it compelling you to sit still?

Yes?

Don’t act. Sit still. Forget about everything else.

Carve your own dazzling destiny.

🙂

What to do in the Age of Shocks?

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Wait for a shock.

That’s it.

Then go in… a bit.

Sound simple?

Ain’t.

Why?

Firstly, patience.

Who has patience, today?

Few.

Secondly, psychology.

Shock brings pessimism.

You don’t want to go in, not even a bit.

That is the whole thing.

Punchline. Understand it, and you’ve won already.

Thirdly, funds.

Who has funds, when the shock arrives?

Few.

Why?

Barely anyone knows how to SIT on funds.

I didn’t either.

Self-taught.

Through mistakes and pain.

By putting money on the line… losing it.

Took eleven years.

Now I know.

So don’t tell me that one is only born with the ability to sit.

Don’t waste your funds. Save them. They are your soldiers.

Fourthly, energy reserves.

Who has energy reserves when the shock arrives?

Few.

Why?

We’re too busy doing this doing that, always, forever. We don’t know how to conserve energy and build up reserves. Those who do then use their reserves to carry forward their strategies upon the arrival of a shock.

Fifthly, focus.

The hallmark of a big winner is focus.

Who has focus?

Few.

We’re too busy diversifying. It’s safer. Investing in the wake of shocks requires pinpointed focus.

Sixthly, courage.

Who has courage?

Few.

Why?

We’ve been taught to avoid, and move on. Life’s too full of BS that needs to be avoided. However, coming out during shocks needs courage. Face the enemy, and fight.

Seventhly, and perhaps this should have been on the top of the list, common-sense.

Who has common-sense?

Almost no one.

Why?

We’re too busy being complicated and sophisticated. We want to portray falsehood. We miss the forest for the trees. However, shocks are tackled with common-sense. Simplicity in thinking is paramount. The simplest ideas making the most sense are also the most successful ones.

Eighthly, long-term vision.

Who has vision?

Handful of people.

Why?

We’re too near-sighted. We want instant gratification. However, a shock presents excellent ground to root yourself in for the long-term. Understand this, and you’ll have understood a lot.

I could go on.

That’s quite enough though.

Above are eight points to think about,  to be seen as eight weapons that need sharpening, to come out fighting in the age of shocks.

Be patient, optimistic, fund-heavy, energy-heavy, focused and brave. Use your common-sense. Have long-term vision. BASICS.

Wishing you successful investing, in an age riddled with shocks.

🙂

Constant Activity doesn’t necessarily mean Progress

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Beware…

…of the urge to…

…constantly remain active.

The times preach it.

Maybe it was valid for different times.

Today, sitting still is an asset.

Many things happen while one sits still.

Systems cleanse.

Systems rest.

Space is created.

Recuperation is paramount.

Strength is built up, to come out firing on all cylinders another day.

Lack of activity thus becomes a secret weapon.

Weapons are double-edged.

If you’re not careful, they cut your skin from their other side.

We guard…

…against unnecessary food…

… and drink…

…laziness, sloth, mental over-zealousness, gossip and / or any kind of evil…

… while we’re inactive.

If we let such cracks seep in, it’ll have been all for a waste.

We’re not going to be inactive and be called a waste, because that’s a double-whammy.

We’re going to be pinpointedly inactive, and still be more productive than the 24×7 active ones.

We’re going to lead a good, full life with activity amidst productive periods of inactivity.

Yeah.

Meet the BenchWarmers

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Yeah, one too many real-estate agents (REAs) have popped up over the last decade.

Any Tom, Dick or Harry (TD/H) who has nothing to do becomes an REA.

Small little office, empty chairs, one TD/H reading a newspaper or watching TV… familiar?

Meet the bench-warmers.

Real-estate is in the dumps.

Sure.

Real-estate bill is in the offing. Might come out soon, might come out later.

Circle-rates are trying to bring the black-money component down.

Government A-B-C categorization is all warped.

Meanwhile, deals have dried. Volumes are zilch.

Is this the bottom?

Who says yes?

I’m afraid not too many have that conviction.

I don’t either.

You see, at bottoms, there’s blood on the streets.

Do you see any blood?

Nope.

Is black-money receding?

Slightly, maybe. Some say significantly. Some say insignificantly. Wishy-washy answers at best. Let’s put this under the “not-sure” category.

Are the bench-warmers packing up their benches?

Nope.

Are more bench-warmers springing up, in anticipation of volume-spikes?

Yeah.

Is this going to make their situation only worse?

Yeah, probably.

When will things start moving finally?

No one knows for certain.

Under the circumstances, how can one call this a bottom?

We’re still way above 2005 levels.

It’s not a bottom, or so I think. Maybe I’m mistaken. However, that’s my opinion.

All right, if it’s not a bottom, what is it then?

Time to wait and watch?

Yeah.

Time to pick up (a property) already?

Probably not.

Time to nibble at a real-estate stock?

Maybe. Just make sure the fundamentals are good and debt-component is negligible. And nibble. That’s all.

What about the bench-warmers? How should they act?

Use their office to generate income. Any which legal way, through any vocation. If not, rent it out with fool-proof lease deed. That’ll generate income too.

Bench-warming degenerates our faculties. It shouldn’t be practised over a prolonged period of time.

Patience and Nerves Anyone?

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As someone I look up to put it recently – “It’s a game of patience and nerves!”

What is?

The stock-market. 

For whom?

The long-term investor. 

Do you have any?

What?

Patience, or nerves, or both?

You do?

Well, then you’ll do well in the markets, over the long-term. 

We look for complication. Meanwhile, we forget the basics. 

These are basics. 

If you’re not patient, you’ll for example jump into a stock at the wrong time, or you’ll jump out of it too early, or what have you. 

If you don’t have patience, well, develop it. 

If you can’t, do something else instead. Trade. Don’t long-term-invest then. 

If you cannot develop patience, you are not cut out to be a long-term holder. 

One method to cause the tree of patience to grow in you is to create the correct environment. 

Just don’t do anything that will make you jump. 

Invest your sur-sur-plus, money that is then pickled away, money that you won’t miss, yearn for or require over the very long-term. 

Go in with margin of safety. 

Stay in a stock you’ve singled out and entered until there’s a glaring reason to exit. Try to exit upon a high. This is the market. Highs are its nature. So are lows. That means that highs come. Wait for them to come, to exit from anything you need to exit from. 

Nervers, well, they come into play if you’ve not invested with margin of safety. 

I do remember two instances though, where everyone’s nerves were tested. October 2008, and March 2009. At these times, stocks sold for a song. Good ones and bad ones alike. Fear did the rounds, extreme fear. That’s what fear does. It creates once-in-a-lifetime opportunities. Take them. Maintain a clear head. Your nerves of steel will do that for you. Create an environment for your nerves to become strong. Or, perhaps expressed another way, create an environment where any weakness in your nerves is not required to show itself, and gets subdued into extinction. 

How?

Again, just go in with your sur-sur-plus. You’re not going to miss this money even if the sky is falling upon your head. And you’ve gone in with margin of safety. Your nerves will stay intact. 

Ensure your basics. Allow them to shine. 

The rest will take care of itself. 

Good investing. 🙂

The Valuation Game

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Value is a magic word. 

Ears stand up. 

Where is value?

Big, big question. 

Medium term investors look for growth. 

Long-termers invariably look for value. 

How do you value a stock?

There are many ways to do that. 

Here, we are just going to talk about basics today.

For example, price divided by earnings allows us to compare Company A to Company B, irrespective of their pricing.

Why isn’t the price enough for such a comparison?

Meaning, why can’t you just compare the price of an Infosys to that of a Geometric and conclude whatever you have to conclude?

Nope. 

That would be like comparing an apple with an orange. 

Reason is, that the number of shares outstanding for each company are different. Thus, the value of anything per share is gotten by dividing the grand total of this anything-entity by the number of outstanding shares that the company has issued. For example, one talks of earnings per share in the markets. One divides the total earnings of a company by the total number of outstanding shares to arrive at earnings per share, or EPS. 

Now, we get investor perception and discovery into the game. How does the public perceive the prospects of the company? How high or low do they bid it? How much have they discovered it? Or not discovered it? This information is contained in the price. 

So, we take all this information contained in the price, and divide it by the earnings per share, and we arrive at the price to earnings ratio, or P/E, or just PE. 

Yeah, we now have a scale to judge the value of stocks. 

Is this scale flawed?

Yeah. 

A stock with a high PE could have massive discovery and investor confidence behind it, or, it could just have very low earnings. When the denominator of a fraction is low, the value of the fraction is “high”. You have to use your common-sense and see what is applying. 

A stock with a low PE could have low price, high earnings, or both. It could have a high price and high earnings.  The low PE could also just be a result of lack of discovery, reflected in a low price despite healthy earnings. Or, the low PE could be because of a low price due to rejection. What is applying? That’s for you to know. 

At best, the PE is ambiguous. Your senses have to be sharp. You have to dig deeper to gauge value. The PE alone is not enough. 

Now let’s add a technical consideration. One sees strong fundamental value in a company, let’s say. For whatever reason. How does one gauge discovery, rejection or what have you in one snapshot? Look at the 5-year chart of the stock, for heaven’s sake. 

You’ll see rejection, if it is there. You’ll understand when it is not rejection, because rejection goes with sell-offs. Lack of discovery means low volumes and less pumping up of the price despite strong fundamentals. You’ll see buying pressure in the chart. That’s smart money making the inroads. Selling pressure means rejection. You’ll be able to gauge all this from the chart. 

Here are some avenues to look for value :

 

– price divided by earnings per share,

– price divided by book-value per share,

– price divided by cash-flow per share,

– price divided by dividend-yield per share,

– in today’s world, accomplishment along with low-debt is a high-value commodity, so look for a low debt to equity ratio,

– look for high return on equity coupled with low debt – one wants a company that performs well without needing to borrow, that’s high value,

– absence of red-flags are high value, so you’re looking for the absence of factors like pledging by the promoters, creative accounting, flambuoyance, 

– you are looking for value in the 5-year chart, by gauging the chart-structure for lack of discovery in the face of strong fundamentals. 

 

We can go on, but then we won’t remain basic any more. Basically, look for margin of safety in any form. 

Yeah, you don’t buy a stock just like that for the long-term. There’s lots that goes with your purchase. Ample and diligent research is one thing. 

Patience to see the chart correct so that you have your proper valuations is another. 

Here’s wishing you both!

🙂

 

IUCS – Investing Under Controlled Stress

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Let’s assume there are funds waiting to be invested. 

In what form do you keep them?

Free?

Bound?

What?

Investors have the luxury of time. Traders don’t. 

I’m really telling you, an investor’s funds need not be kept in free form. 

Traders need to pounce, not investors. 

If you don’t need to pounce, don’t keep your funds in free form. 

Keep them bound. Semi-bound. Let’s call it stressed. Keep them stressed. Stress that is under your control. 

What are we talking about?

Also, why are we talking about whatever we are talking about?

Free funds are open to whims and fancies. 

Whose? 

Yours. Your bankers’. Anyone’s, who has an eye on the funds. 

Plush with free funds, you take liberties. Your defences are down. You are liable to make mistakes, perhaps big ones. 

Bound funds, on the other hand, are subject to activation barriers before release. 

You think twice before releasing them, or perhaps thrice, if the locking is tight. You win precious time. During the extra time, you can well scrap an investment with a faulty premise, or you can discover hidden agendas or angles which cause you not to follow through. You get saved because of controlled stress. 

Furthermore, bound funds don’t reflect on your banker’s system as funds waiting to be invested. He or she won’t bother you or incite you to make a mistake. You’ve knocked him or her out of the equation. Bravo!

Controlled stress can be of different degrees. When funds are irreversibly locked-in, then we cannot talk of control anymore. Anything below that is under our control with varying levels of effectivity. The stronger the (reversible) lock-in, the harder you’ll think about the new investment, because the activation barrier for making funds free again to invest is large. 

Let’s not get too carried away. We can just make simple fixed deposits. These are completely within our control. You can break them with a letter to the bank manager. The activation barrier to free them is relatively small. However, you do think twice before freeing them. The’ve disappeared from your banker’s horizon. They’ve also disappeared from any online fraudster’s horizon, who was perhaps looking to clean you out. 

Also, actually, you don’t really need to break these fixed deposits to get into a new investment, since breaking goes with a small interest-penalty. If you’ve got fresh funds coming in at a later date, but wish to invest now, you can borrow against a fixed deposit. This will again make you stop and think, because borrowing comes with a cost, i.e. interest. You will only get into the fresh investment if you really, really have to / want to. You will discard any half-baked investment idea. It’s still worth it, despite the interest. You might find this a bit crazy, bit I like to do it like this. For me, the biggest win here is that I am not breaking a former structure. Add to this the extra safety. Plus the extra thinking-time to ward-off bad investments. Add everything up, and you might also think that the borrowing cost is peanuts when compared to the benefits. Don’t forget, since you’ve got fresh funds coming in soon, you’ll soon be releasing the fixed deposits you are borrowing against from their overdraft mode. This is a meta-game strategy. 

Yeah, keep investible funds in fixed deposits. It is really as simple as that. 

The best things in life are really very simple. 

Complication and sophistication are facades used by humans to hide their mediocrity.

A successful person does not need to hide his or her simplicity. 

Simplicity is one of the biggest precursors to mega-success. 

You Might Think I’m Crazy

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you might think i’m crazy

to hang around with you

maybe you think i’m lucky

to have something to do

…

you might think it’s foolish

or maybe it’s untrue

you might think i’m crazy

but all i want is you

The Cars

Some years ago, we went to see “Cars 2” with my daughter and her cousins. Yawn, I thought. Animation movie, blah blah blah, but anything for the kids, when suddenly, above song started playing and took me back to school. How appropriate, a song by the Cars in a movie called Cars. Actually ended up enjoying the movie.

Anyways, something about the lyrics caught my attention.

What do you read in this space?

Words, words, words.

No graphs. No images. No math. No numbers, really. 

And this blog is supposed to be what? A commentary on applied finance?

So am I crazy?

Maybe, …

… but, this is exactly how I want to do it. 

No hocus-pocus. 

Here, we break it down to the bare minimum. 

Words. 

We talk. 

It’s all very light. 

You read through in a jiff. 

There’s a powerful flow which you might not even be aware of. 

And, as the lyrics say, all I want is you.

Yes, I want your attention, and I want to keep it riveted. 

How am I to achieve that in an age of very short attention spans?

We keep it simple. Bare minimum stuff, wrapped in enjoyable words. Stories. Analogies. Parallels. Bridges. As seemingly non-finance as possible, but still not missing the point.

Sure, I still could be crazy.

What do I hope to achieve?

So much time involved.

All this for free.

Yeah, I really must be delirious.

Stop. 

It’s deep. 

I enjoy writing. 

It relaxes me. 

My thoughts get organized. Concepts get strengthened. I focus. Many mistakes in my approach get nullified. I don’t want more from this. 

Also, it’s my giveback. I use a lot of free stuff from the net. I give this for free. It’s all a give and take. 

So, just bear with me. 

Read if you want to, it’ll make me happy. 

It is definitely a different way to learn about finance, with all the jugglery left out. 

Well, why not?



 

 

Less is More

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Fill your plate.

Work.

Go all out.

Nobody’s asking you to work less.

Research.

Hit it with your best shot.

Do quality work.

Work with the best tools.

Enjoy your work…

…so much so, that time ceases to exist.

Yeah, that means you’ve found your calling.

However, connect less to live Mrs. Market.

Here, less is more.

Keep her away as much as possible when she’s live.

Only connect live when you really, really have to.

What are you achieving?

Minimal bogging down live market forces.

You’re away from the pandemonium, the confusion.

You’ve set your self up brilliantly, to think clearly.

Now, gather your thoughts, gather your research.

You get into the Zone.

You have a purpose.

It can be anything. A market instruction. An instrument alteration. A structural change. A query. A test. A probe. A check. Something small. Something big.

With your purpose right before your eyes, connect live.

Solve your purpose.

Disconnect.

Relax.

Let remnant market forces leave you, yeah, let them dissipate.

Do some other stuff for a while.

Then, when you’re ready, get back to your research.

If you’re not ready after a while, call it a day.

Go for a swim. Or something.