Category Archives: Success

Approach

Posted on by
Reply

Hey,

Just did a mental review about my approach to the markets over the years.

Saw how I started out.

What was the motivation?

Strategy?

Mindset?

Outcome?

Then gauged these parameters after being in the markets for ten years.

And, finally, assessed the same as of today, after being in the markets for twenty years.

Here are a few observations.

Approach softened over the years.

Not in quantity. Will come to that in a bit.

No, approach became opportunity-linked.

One didn’t wish that the markets would be somewhere.

One played them where they were, as was worthy of that situation.

One wasn’t tense.

One had rules. Approach was now rule-based.

One enjoyed the approach.

It was relaxing.

It now gave a kick.

Now, there was feeling of achievement.

Of creation.

Of success.

Earlier, all this wasn’t there.

One was tense most of the time.

One followed markets all the time.

Sometimes, sleep eluded.

Now, after market hours, what market? When you don’t think about it, it doesn’t exist, for you.

I’d said I would mention quantity, which has been increasing steadily, since it’s a function of portfolio-size.

So, in a nutshell, benefits abound, upon ever-increasing quantity?

What’s happened?

What’s changed?

Have gotten into a groove.

Found a sweet-spot.

Entered a zone. The Zone, perhaps.

It’s like that ‘perfect’ cover drive, or an optimal trajectory golf drive shot resulting in a birdie for the hole. Don’t wish to use ‘hole-in-one’ here, that would be too much… .

In the Zone, you know things.

Someone outside the Zone will ask how one knows.

Don’t know. One just knows.

One can attach oneself to the swing of the Universe.

One is one with the swing.

It takes time to get into the groove.

For me, make that twenty years.

One becomes mouldable, and flows with the current of the Zone.

I enjoy my approach.

It’s not tangible.

Visibility is not my criterion.

What is, then?

Fulfilment.

If my approach is all I have when I die, I’ll leave with a feeling of fulfilment.

Activation

Posted on by
Reply

Wrt success and happiness…

…what was your pick.

You said both, right?

There was a thing about that, though.

Thing was, success made one happy, sure, but how long did that particular happiness last?

It got boring after a point.

Taking any one thing, and succeeding at it again and again and again, gave no kick anymore, after a while.

Because everyone wished to succeed in life, and, also, because everyone strove to be happy, how would one go about making the happy condition regular, in worldly terms, apart from the spiritual angle?

Accumulation and activation of good fortune was a must here. How would one go about this?

By doing anything that helped the cause of another. By doing good deeds that helped something, or someone. This would then create a field of good fortune. On such very field, success could flow, towards one. No field meant no flow. Creating field after field, then moving on to create another – such behaviour would accumulate mountains of good fortune, which, upon breaching of critical mass, would get activated for fruition. Activation was important, since initial success motivated one to continue.

On this trajectory, success would eventually overflow. Perhaps there would be fame.

Hey, what had happened to one’s happiness?

Did it increase post activation? Upon fame? Or did it decline?

Down the line, the high would summon its buddy, the low.

Between highs and lows, there was a high chance of balance being lost. Happiness levels would start to decrease. There came a time when it was gone.

One started to ask. When was one happiest?

While creating field upon field, yes, that seemed correct, that’s when one was happiest.

Creation of good fortune, the sheer act, that was it.

One didn’t seem to bore of that particular kind of happiness emanating from creation.

That brought us back to the basic question.

What was worth striving for most in life?

To immerse repeatedly into the act? The act of creating good fortune?

That seemed to be the best answer.

Opportunity

Posted on by
Reply

Knock knock.

Nobody home.

See you, bye. Maybe never.

Knock knock.

Come in.

This is the requirement.

No funds.

Bye.

Knock knock.

Hey. Funds not a problem.

Guts?

What if I lose?

Bye.

Knock knock.

I wish to invest and the risk is digestible.

Ok. Pull the trigger.

Should we wait for a better price?

Bye.

Knock knock.

Let’s pull the trigger.

Ok.

There.

Bye.

Hey, it’s been a month and I’m up 10%. Let’s cash out.

Ok. Bye.

Knock knock.

This time I’ll let my profit run. The last one doubled in 6 months, but I’d cashed out after a minuscule rise.

So you’ve learnt how to sit?

I keep a lookout for you. If I’m not home I get alerted to your presence, so that I can act in time.

Then, I always maintain ample liquidity for you.

The amounts I put in make my risk digestible, looking at the total size of my portfolio and liquidity.

Once you knock, I’m not afraid to pull the trigger anymore.

I’ve learnt to let multibaggers develop. I don’t nip them in the bud anymore.

Wonderful. Now add cost-free-ness to your repertoire.

Why?

It’ll trick your mind into holding your multibagger eternally, so that it is given the chance of becoming a megabagger.

Will do, thanks, cost-free-ness won’t cost me anything, right?

Not a penny.

2050?

Posted on by
Reply

Yes.

Why?

Why what?

Why 2050?

Growth trajectory.

Whose?

India’s.

What about it?

Spurts with bottlenecks. Not linear.

So?

Will take 2050 till fruition.

Meaning, for you?

Quest for multibagger accumulation will be successfully achieved.

By 2050?

Yeah.

Anything else?

My own trajectory.

Will you be around?

Not relevant.

Why?

I’ll leave the assets as my legacy.

To whom?

Family. Country. Charity.

Striving and then leaving it?

Doesn’t cause me any reaction.

Why?

It’s cost-free.

Meaning?

My principal is not invested. Pulled it out in profit. What remains in the markets is cost-free. I live and enjoy my life on my income, simultaneously creating a cost-free legacy. The cost-free-ness tricks my mind into an eternal hold. I stop jumping. Vicissitudes of price path have no meaning for me once something has become cost-free.

And why stop in 2050?

Growth culmination. India enters first-world territory. It becomes difficult to create multiples fast. Life is far more efficient, and so is price, then. Loopholes are filled in by artificial intelligence before an EoD chap like me can react. Info-flow is so fast and transparent, that everybody knows. Everyone is smart because they use the appropriate tools. Since all money is smart, there’s no edge anymore. But that’s 2050. Today, oh, there are edges. Inefficiency lasting longer than EoD. Sometimes lasting months. Loopholes. Pattern related. Operator related. Price related. AI is not fully there yet. Most market players are not smart, I think the official statistic reads 88%. Almost all tools look at the wrong stuff. By the time one reacts to indicators, which are a function of price, most of the edge is gone. Information-flow is not fast enough, and if you can read it in the numbers or the chart before it happens, the edge is huge. And, forget about transparency. It’s just not there. We’re sitting of big edges currently.

So, 2050, stop, and then what?

No idea. Let’s go with the flow. Right now the flow is leading up to 2050.

And what if there are world-shattering events before that?

We buy. We are almost always highly liquid. When we’re not, we start creating liquidity. We are never illiquid. 2050 is just a number. We have numbers to go on, like lamp-posts. It’s another lamp-post, like 1984, or Y2k, or what have you.

Do you want to be the person remembered for 2050?

That’s not even a question for me. I’m flowing with 2050 because that works for me. I don’t care about the rest. If you wish to think with that mindset, that’s on you.

Why rude?

Nothing rude or not rude about it. 2050 is part of my framework. Nothing more, nothing less.

I see.

Whetting

Posted on by
Reply

What does it take…

…to convince my mind…

…that something’s a very long-term hold?

What am I looking for?

Longevity. Actually, perceived longevity. Perceived in my mind. Mind matters. When the mind is shaken, one lets go. For something to be a long-term hold, the mind needs to be long-term convinced.

Lack of dependency. On water. On other natural resources. On CapEx. On real-estate.

Immunity to trend-change.

Adaptability to disruption. As much proximity to a state of anti-fragility as possible. Entry price and cost-free-ness will reinforce proximity to anti-fragility.

Diligent, share-holder friendly management with good track record, with repeated examples of wealth-creation through exploitation of multiple avenues available.

A product line that is more dependent on human capital than on machinery.

Copious, intelligent, reasonably priced human capital. With that we’ve knocked out inflation.

Very decent margin of safety at entry point. With that we’ve accounted for any remaining idiosyncrasies in capable managements and / or otherwise humane promoters.

Lack of debt. We’re ok with reasonable amounts borrowed at reasonable rates for day to day working capital, but not a big fan of long-term debt.

No smoke cloud. Talking about scams, frauds, bribes, court-cases and the like.

That’s ten things already.

I take these ten, sift through the Nifty 500, and get 43 underlyings, which, for me, satisfy these criteria.

That’s it.

I play with these.

That’s all the whetting I need.

You’re saying I didn’t mention numbers. Metrics. Ratios.

Numbers come and go. Basics remain. When the basics are right, numbers will be intact for long, and for a few quarters they won’t be. Those are re-entry opportunities.

Good basics create good numbers, repeatedly. We are making sure that we are only entering into good basics.

Now the ball’s in your court.

Create your criteria.

What works for you?

Sift through.

Narrow down.

What remains are your whetted stocks.

Start your game.

It’s a long one, so…

…wishing you stamina!

🙂

2050

Posted on by
Reply

Hey,

There’s a Street View… ,

… , and then there’s a street view.

I rely on…

…my street view.

Making it a point not to heed that the Street thinks, I repeatedly look for micro and macro signs on my street.

My street is where I am.

I mostly spend my time in my own country.

And, my street view is one of staggered growth.

There’s development…

…with holdups waiting to happen out of nowhere, and often.

That’s India, for me.

Am I going to cry?

I scream, actually, at apathy prevailing, but from the inside. To no avail. At one point the screaming stops. The only thing remains is to take advantage. I’ll make it up for India. Part of the money earned will go towards a private initiative towards my country’s development. So, no guilty-conscience here. My country gives me repeated opportunities. Why should I not take them? India does give me grief too. It’s ok. I love my country. We both can take liberties with each other, as do parents and children between themselves.

Owing to our attitudinal coordinates, our country is full of bottlenecks, and these bring a rising entity down, regularly.

Apart from that we’re emotional.

Over-emotional, actually.

So what’s going down goes down by an unhealthy multiple.

Activation.

Chart Pattern?

Numbers talking to you?

Method.

System development.

Pinpoint.

Enter.

Sizably.

Making size a function of portfolio magnitude.

When something here rises, one lets it ride with a stop that eventually triggers, then trails.

One never books a winner fully in India. Not in this bull market.

Billion dollar strategy.

One first goes cost-free.

And then some.

After one’s in-the-profit stop is triggered and then hit, one takes one’s principal out, with which one will fight the next battle, the next quest for cost-free-ness.

One leaves one’s cost-free-ness created on the table and shifts if out of sight and out of mind.

One’s cost-free-ness can be held for a long, long time.

Till 2050?

Yes, if the underlying has been duly whetted for a 2050 hold.

That’s how we play India.

Till 2050.

Meaning

Posted on by
Reply

Situations…

…arise.

Do I accept…

…my situation…

…or don’t I?

Unless something fits, I don’t deem it a fit.

Fighting…

…till the environment moulds…

…and fits…

…has been a normal response…

…for me.

Using this response, majority of circumstances are made to fit, and then one moves on to the next set.

However,…

…some situations refuse to mould.

These are the big ones.

They don’t go away.

They don’t change.

Hmmmm.

Most of these, I still don’t accept.

Plan B.

I fit.

These two words are not just two words.

There are worlds underneath.

How does one make oneself fit?

Change.

Behaviour.

Habits.

Body.

Mind.

DNA.

Changes that then incorporate into one’s reflexes, and, finally, into one’s long-term memory.

Takes a lot.

Mental checks.

Tolerance.

Control over speech.

Throwing temper into bin.

Exercise. Build-up to high-intensity. Need to generate human growth hormone (HGH). Its presence expedites what I wish to achieve.

Fasting. At times. At least IF. More HGH.

Cold showers. Even more HGH.

Deep sleep. If possible. Providing fast avenue for change to get incorporated at biochemical level.

Four months.

There’s visible change.

Six months.

It’s a fit.

I…

…have…

…fit(ted).

Feels good.

It’s a huge win.

Accomplishment unleashes a different set of hormones. These supply a feeling of fulfilment.

That’s not all.

There are one or two other situations in life, which belong to a different category.

They don’t fit.

Also, one doesn’t wish to fit.

They don’t go away either.

And, they don’t change.

Where does one stand, then?

These are the biggest ones.

These were sent to keep poking you.

Till the end.

What do I do with these?

Accept the category in play?

Have to, eventually.

Try everything pertaining to the prior two categories?

Of course. How else would I know?

When the category stands, and nothing works, there still remains a question.

Do I accept my situation?

I…

…don’t,…

…as this situation stands.

I…

…do,…

…with a twist.

Meaning.

Looking for meaning.

Mostly takes damn long to find meaning. Years. Decades? Can.

If am not able to find meaning, that’ll be the status till the end. One dies finding meaning, with regard to the particular situation.

If I do, that meaning is the twist.

Every time there’s a poke, I’ll think of the meaning.

With regard to the situation, one dies while acting upon the meaning.

And…

…why?

Why do they come, such ones?

Accelerated, enhanced, bumper growth?

It doesn’t happen without these.

Pipelines

Posted on by
Reply

Replicability of an approach is a pipeline. You can always draw on it for a fresh trade, for example.

Scalability is a pipeline getting broader.

Research sharpens the edges of your pipeline, sustains these well, and founds new paths (pipelines), going forward.

Deep Thought is where one taps the pipelines of the Universe.

Experience builds reflexes, which guard and enhance pipelines. This is intuition in action.

Ability to discern allows judgement to manipulate a pipeline in the correct direction.

Cataloguing provides hindsight, so that the pipeline of foresight is strengthened.

Giving opens up vast positive pipelines for oneself, by creating energy vacuum in one’s immediate environment.

Relaxation allows the pipeline of genius to emerge. Brilliant sparks which have been developing silently, within oneself, burst forward.

Family is a pipeline of joy.

Freedom allows the pipeline of creativity to flow.

Also, detachment allows time for the pipeline of flow to form properly. This is particularly valid in trading. Think of profits being allowed to run, for starters.

If I rack my brains, I’ll come up with more…

…pipelines.

That’s not the point.

The point is to delineate that one’s per saldo self is a net resultant of many pipelines acting in tandem.

These have taken time, effort, fortune, patience, blood, sweat, tears and what have you to create.

I measure my life’s success in seamlessly implemented pipelines on autopilot.

For every long-term, seamless, auto-pipeline functioning optimally and on full, there have probably been fifty discarded efforts.

Whether one is trading, investing or sheerly living a fulfilling life, …

… it’s one ‘s pipelines that provide critical support.

Approach

Posted on by
Reply

Markets speak.

Can we hear them?

Do we know their language?

We are not born knowing their language.

We learn.

Their’s is not a normal language.

It keeps changing…

…till it’s similar to the past…

…and then it changes again…

…to throw us off-track.

We need to keep adapting.

Every corner could be a new one, with a new sign.

Feel the challenge?

The thrill upon attempting to decipher?

Do you feel fulfilled?

Well, if yes, then you’ve met your calling.

Congratulations.

Now sustain.

Play out your full market journey. Enjoy it. Win.

How?

Since every corner could be a new one, every corner needs to be approached with a what-if-plan.

Simultaneously, one is on the lookout for signs.

What signs?

Similarities, in patterns, psychology, chronology, feel, levels, anything.

Have you seen this before?

What happened last time?

Approach with multiple scenario what-if.

What if you haven’t seen current signs on offer?

Carve out the situation.

Create scenarios.

Build a what if for each scenario.

Approach.

Notice something?

Whether one has seen something before, or not, the approach is basically the same.

Great.

We’ll not bother with getting spooked out.

We just keep tapping the markets, armed with a play-out strategy for each unfolding scenario.

Our approach is designed such that we sustain till the end of our market journey and beyond.

We keep intact our health, family life, and our corpus.

We keep sharpening our edge, and keep attempting lucrative reward risk scenarios.

We learn to take our stop.

We learn to let runners run till logical exits appear.

We learn to establish and enjoy a life beyond markets.

Wishing all market success and happiness.

🙂

Harness

Posted on by
Reply

Market forces are like Wifi.

When we connect to them, they…

…connect to us.

When we’re indifferent, …

… we’re in a different world.

When we create systems, and put them on auto-pilot, we mostly do away with the ability of market forces to act upon us.

A successfully implemented system on auto-loop is like making time stand still.

That’s our goal; that’s where we want to be.

In the act of getting there, we are subject to compelling market forces.

How do we deal with them?

Rather than suffering KOs from their punches, we devise systems…

…to absorb their blows,…

…understand the implications of these,…

…to, then,…

…harness them.

What am I talking about?

Why give market forces so much power?

Why not?

They’re there, right?

In abundance, too.

Why not use them?

How?

You can go back to George Soros’s back pain for starters.

Have you developed such physical systems?

I’ll tell you what I implement. It’s a me thing. You’ll need to develop your you thing. I’ll share with you my me thing, though.

When markets are down, I do feel bad, it’s an initial reaction. I wait for it to intensify. I wait for myself to feel awful. That means markets must be really down. As awfulness rises, I start buying. When awfulness is uncontrollable, I buy big. When it makes me puke, I buy maximum. Meanwhile, I’ve rewired my nervous system to accept the awfulness as a marker for buying, and I’m not sad that I’m feeling awful during market crashes. Hmmm, I know it sounds a bit crazy, but this a successful harness-methodology of otherwise overwhelming market forces.

When markets are up, I feel buoyant. Earlier, when I felt buoyant, I used to buy more. Now, I do nothing. Market-nothing, that is. Non-market, I’ll do many things. That’s harnessing buoyancy. As markets rise further, I do even more of market-nothing, and when I can’t control it, I then start creating cost-free-ness. When buoyancy is uncontrollable, I create maximum possible cost-free-ness, and hopefully, then, I can go on market-vacation. Before I do that, I make sure to transfer the cost-free-ness created to a dedicated holding platform for my cost-free-ness.

Ideally, new market activity needs to only commence upon the next set of opportunities. Sometimes, one needs to wait long for these to develop. The act of bridging time comes in handy here. Market is not giving action. We harness even that. We have accumulated lots of pending tasks, just for this kind of period. Now, we do these. Ultimately, an opportunity arises. A new cycle of cost-free-ness-creation starts.

Development of you-unique systems helps you harness the market in a winning fashion.

Wishing you lucrative investing and lots of cost-free-ness!

🙂

Statics

Posted on by
Reply

What are your statics?

What do you follow …

… all the time?

More importantly,…

…why follow something…

…all the time?

There are always new runners on the block.

Changing pursuits regularly should keep one busy, right?

Right.

Busy.

Busy winning?

Not so sure on that one.

Statics allow you to win through them…

…again and again.

Why?

Because you have felt their pulse.

Your fluidity has blended into their being, and you are one with the underlying.

You flow with them.

That’s when you win with them.

Ya…

…that’s when you keep winning with them.

How did you choose your statics?

Choice needs to be fool-proof for you.

Why?

If not, doubt will creep in.

That’s a poisonous crack.

It doesn’t allow you to win with your static.

Replace the static in question, this time without a doubt clouding your mind.

Or, bury your doubt.

Then, go and win.

Statics, is that even a word?

No idea.

It feels right, and I’m using it to channel across a pivotal concept.

That’s all that counts.

🙂

Fearlessness

Posted on by
Reply

Hey, 

There’s no hype…

…on Magic Bull.

No business lunches.

Conferences.

Fees.

Advertising.

Liasoning.

Roadshows.

Magic Bull is a no-nonsense, cut-to-the-chase space.

Why?

That’s how I like it.

A strategy that works under any market conditions, …

… is multi-faceted,…

…  adaptable, …

…  self-adjusting, …

… and comprehensive, …

… doesn’t require artificial crutches… 

… because, …

… it makes…

… money …

… on its own.  

Why is the Magic Bull approach successful in any market, under any conditions?

Because it is based on fearlessness. 

We are not born fearless.

Fear is a natural human instinct innate in us. 

It saves us, many a time. 

However, to make money in the markets, one needs to get rid of fear.

How?

Most of our planning revolves around creating circumstances around ourselves that take fear out of the equation. 

You’ll need to make the effort of going through the material in this space, to get a grip on how Magic Bull eliminates this emotion. 

You see, even if there’s a free lunch in life, it’s not that free that the spoon will lift itself and put the meal down another’s throat. 

A certain minimal effort will need to be made. 

Thing is, hardly anyone makes even that kind of effort. 

Result will be, that not more than a handful will actually read this stuff, and one or two might actually implement it.

Sure. 

Growing Magic Bull’s readership is not my objective.

What do I get from the entire exercise?

Evolution. Writing evolves. The strategy just gets better and better.

Blah blah blah. 

Oh, ya, what happens when a strategy gets it right?

I’ll leave you to figure that out, since that’s what I get. 

And why again?

Because of fearlessness.

One’s cycle of winning in the markets, under any conditions, starts with fearlessness.

Wishing you fearless trading and investing!

🙂

Is Cost-Free-Ness the Holy Grail?

Posted on by
Reply

There is…

…a Holy Grail…

…mentioned in the Holy Bible. 

Also, …

… human capital

… pursues excellence.

I…

… am no exception.

Having stumbled upon…

…cost-free-ness…

…after many knocks in all possible markets, …

… and having developed the concept a tad, …

… I do say to you this.

I say to you, …

… , that cost-free-ness…

… is no holy grail. 

In its pursuit, money does get stuck. And, …

… upon its generation, money does flow, at times, into expensive, “uncatchable” material.

These are the two main mentionable “nuances” associated with the pursuit of cost-free-ness, that one needs to be aware of. 

Money getting stuck? Hmmmm.

If we’re afraid of money getting stuck, we should exit from the market. Any market. Period. 

Don’t be in the game if you can’t take the heat. 

It’s ok. 

Play another game, where you can. 

Perfectly fine.

Now let’s tackle the other one. 

Purists are jumping, I know. 

I can hear them yelling “EXPENSIVE!”

Sure.

Extremely high quality…

…will be expensive. 

One legitimate entry opportunity every ten years can be possible in such underlyings.

When it comes, and if one is having a bad hair week, one can even miss the window.

When it comes, we’ll enter big.

That’s a larger game, non-cost-free initially, and we’ve played it well in March 2020, entering non-cost-free, entering big (because of the available margin of safety), and generating vast amounts of cost-free-ness within a few months, to then ultimately be sitting on large, extremely high-quality & completely cost-free portfolios, perhaps for life.

However, such timelines are anomalies. We’ll pounce upon such chronologies when they happen. Meanwhile, …

…our bread and butter is to generate small amounts of cost-free-ness on a regular basis, day-in-day-out, all year round, …

… and it’s ok to enter extremely high quality with one’s freshly generated small amounts of cost-free-ness, right here right now, at the expensive price. 

Why?

Firstly, it’s not costing you. 

Secondly, when we deploy cost-free-ness into extremely high quality in a long-term-growth-promising market like India’s, it’s probably for life. 

Seen from a perspective of a decade or two, or perhaps three, the currently expensive cost-free entry is legitimate. 

Please do the 10, 20 or 30 year math for India, and you should come to the same conclusion.

Why do we wish to deploy immediately?

Out of sight, out of mind. 

Money has idiosyncrasies. 

The biggest one is that it is spent, in the blink of an eye. 

Better, deploy it, specifically also because your mathematics is okaying a legit entry for the extremely long-term.

And, pray, have you wondered why you will be able to sit on your investment for so long?

Primarily because your entry is cost-free. 

There is no other singular, more overwhelming reason. 

Cost-free-ness overwhelms the mind into sitting on extremely long holds. Try it out for yourself.

That takes care of the second point, …

… and I say to you this, that…

… cost-free-ness, …

… though not the holy grail, …

… could well be the next best market concept available to mankind, for long-term success in the markets.

Wishing you lucrative & highly successful cost-free investing!

🙂

Are you Positioned?

Posted on by
Reply

What’s our biggest enemy in the markets?

This one’s invariably…

…our Self.

Cut to ’07.

Fancy hotel banquet room, snacks and drinks, chief investment officer of JP Morgan is talking…

…and we’re listening.

My friend and I…

…sitting on profits…

…feeling smug about ourselves…

…young guns…

…ready to conquer the world…

…nothing can stop us now.

Or can it?

“There will always be a correction…”. These words catch my ear.

I raise my hand.

“Yes? The gentleman with the lime-green tie has a question?”

I stand up, and before I know it, I ask the deadly question.

“Don’t you think there’s been a paradigm-shift with regard to India, and that India has decoupled from the rest of the world?”

“How old are you, Sir?”

“37”.

This was ’07, remember?

“I’m going to excuse your question, because you’re young, and have probably experienced the markets for…?”

“3 years”.

“Exactly. That’s why I’ll only answer your question with a smile.”

How controlled.

“You see, globalization is a reality, and decoupling is a myth”.

Myth, really?

“It’s fancy phrases like “paradigm-shift” that catch the inexperienced investor’s imagination, leading to huge market mistakes”.

In these few sentences, my entire comprehension of markets was blown up and thrown out the window.

And that would have been a good thing…

…had I listened.

Such is the arrogance of “youth”, that “youth” doesn’t listen.

Soon, the ’08 crash happened.

I lost big time.

Was humbled.

Took me a long time to get back and stabilize.

I remember my stomach churning and my unwillingness to meet people as markets crashed to lower and lower levels.

I almost couldn’t take it.

We are our worst enemies.

What’s it going to be this market high?

We’ve learnt, and are positioned.

However, there will be newbies (like we were) who are going to go through this chain of events.

What buzz-words or phrases will catch their imagination?

BitCoin?

Liquidity?

Vaccine?

Quantitative Easing?

FIIs?

Pending rally in small-caps?

There’s a new cocktail doing the rounds this time around.

This cocktail will ensnare.

Even the topmost analysts are beginning to feel that a correction could take some time coming.

Some weeks ago, most felt that a correction could happen anytime now.

Player psychology is set for the cocktail to do its work.

Then one needs a pinprick.

In ’08 this was perhaps Lehman on the world scale and the Reliance Power IPO in India.

What’s it going to be this time?

It doesn’t matter.

Remember? There will always be a correction.

Are you positioned?

Positioned

Posted on by
Reply

By now…

…, we are positioned.

The persistence of high price-levels…

…has led us to take appropriate action.

One after another, we are washing our market mistakes clean.

What remains, is cost-free-ness, in high-quality holdings.

We’ve then also helped our relatives and friends attain the same state of market-being.

MFs?

Now cost-free.

ULIPs?

Gotten them to money-market.

Debt market holdings?

No more debt market for a while.

Bond-yields are rising.

There’ve been blow-ups. Boys @ FT and Nippon take a bow.

Parking where?

Fixed deposits.

Why?

Not in it for returns.

Just to park, safely.

We’re sticklers for parking safely.

Loss of interest will be made up within days of opportunity, into which funds then flow, and then some.

One can now say…

,…safely…

,…that we’re positioned.

What happens from this point onwards?

How many days has the main sensory index spent at PEs of 35+ within the last 5000 days?

Yeah, right?

Small-cap rally still due?

That’s what everyone feels, right?

That’s the point.

Leave the masses hanging onto something they’re expecting.

If it doesn’t happen, they’re what?

Left hanging. Devil takes the hind-most.

Please do your math, and please position yourself too, appropriately.

What if markets go on rising?

Sure, that’s a possibility, perhaps for a while.

Simple rule.

No level, no entry.

We know how to sit.

On our holdings, and then…

…on our cost-free-ness.

Now, capital will only move…

…upon opportunity.

And the pipe-line’s ample, our positioning has seen to that.

Come something like March ’20, and we’ll blast the flow of our pipeline.

Oh, another thing.

Notice the speed of moves, nowadays?

It’s fast, isn’t it?

As in markets are efficient, till they’re not, and then they’re efficient again, and then they’re not, back and forth, to and fro, all very fast.

Meaning what?

Meaning, that there will be ample opportunities, more sooner than later, and that till there are inefficiencies on the down-side,…

…we sit tight…

…to maximize the impact of our positioning.

Supremacy of Cost-Free-Ness makes itself felt in Equity alone

Posted on by
Reply

The impact of cost-free-ness stretches across all asset-classes…

… that are long-term-holdable.

Equity, Gold, Real-Estate, etc., …

… with perhaps bonds being a question mark with regard to applicability.

Why is cost-free-ness not that valid a concept for short-term-holds?

That’s because multibagger appreciation of a short-term-hold is not realistically expectable.

Then, with gold and real-estate, there are certain nuances, which need to be mentioned.

Gold doesn’t adjust itself for inflation. The 100-year appreciation in Gold is 1% per annum compounded, adjusted for inflation. We can make some Gold cost-free, and then hold the cost-free Gold for the long-term. However, to expect it to burgeon into a multibagger is too much. There’s no human capital behind Gold, no intelligently thinking minds. Also, Gold is commodity-cyclic in nature. Forget about all these technical arguments. Sheer 100-year History has taught us not to think in multibagger terms with regard to Gold. Let’s say we held it for the touted 100 years. Well, then, 1 x 1.01 ^ 100 = 2.70. We’re then holding a 2.7 bagger after 100 years. Safety risk too. Naehhh, not interested.

What’s the deal with real-estate? No human capital behind it, again. Thus, the asset-class doesn’t auto-adjust for inflation. Also, we’re not taking any cash-component into consideration. What does that make real-estate behave like, in the long-term, in a regime like now? Perhaps like a glorified fixed-deposit. Or, even, perhaps, like a high single-digit yielding bond. Now minus inflation. Hmmm, after the math, real-estate becomes an asset-class that yields 2-3% per annum compounded, adjusted for inflation, let’s say 2.5%. Minus the half percent for its management (which is a hassle, btw). Well, then, 1 x 1.02 ^ 100 = 7.24. We’re left holding a 7-bagger after 100 years. With hassle in the equation, 100 years is too much effort for a 7-bagger. Not interested either.

Now let’s look at Equity. Human capital is behind it. Equity is hassle-free with regard to its management. Equity auto-adjusts for inflation. All Equity that ever existed, including companies that have gone bust, has shown a return of 6% per annum compounded, adjusted for inflation. Taking companies out that don’t exist anymore, Equity has given a return of 11% per annum compounded, adjusted for inflation, over the long-term. Intelligently chosen Equity, with proper due diligence, is extremely capable of giving a return in the range of 15% per annum compounded, adjusted for inflation, in the long-term. Let’s do the numbers. 1 x 1.06 ^ 100 = 339.30; 1 x 1.11 ^ 100 = 34,064.28; 1 x 1.15 ^ 100 = 11,74,313.45.

These numbers don’t need crunching.

It’s pretty clear, that the supremacy of cost-free-ness makes itself felt in long-term held, cost-free Equity.

I wish for you happy, long-term cost-free-ness!

🙂

Washing a Stock “Sin-Free” with Cost-Free-Ness

Posted on by
Reply

Each stock has sins on the balance-sheet.

Many sins don’t show up even, on the balance-sheet.

You see, they’ve been swiped under the rug.

One’ll never know the whole story, unless one is the promoter oneself.

Some stocks have nothing noteworthy to hide, though.

Others have a side they don’t want you to see.

Still others are brimming with skeletons in their cupboard.

It doesn’t matter what you’re holding, …

… when you make the stock cost-free, …

… for you, the stock just became sin-free.

Congratulations.

You’re done already.

That’s the beauty of cost-free-ness.

Yeah, in cost-free-ness, …

… one has a universal balsam…

…that rinses the underlying completely clean to hold, like, forever.

Cost-free-ness is like a magic potion that turns around the whole story, …

… any story.

So, …

… what’s the motivation…

—in making the wholesome effort…

…of creating cost-free-ness?

Multibaggers, developing within our high quality, and now cost-free, holdings.

And how could one classify our feat of cost-free-ness, in another, very meaningful and currently “hot, happening and insider” way?

Nothing’s happening to one if markets go down even to zero, as far as one’s cost-free holding is concerned, since one has pulled out all the principal. Since one is not incurring any loss whatsoever from the holding, even upon market-reversal, for one, this cost-free holding, if I’ve understood Mr. Taleb (coiner and first-user of the phrase “antifragile”) correctly, is antifragile in nature, also then because, price contraction in the cost-free holding is a good thing for us, in that more purchase of the high-quality holding can subsequently happen, with the goal of making more and more holding cost-free, as markets swing back upwards. Market reversal after cost-free-ness is setting us up for a larger cost-free holding in the future. Seen from our initial sweet-spot of cost-free-ness, since market reversal betters our poise and increases our potential to make our cost-free holding grow in units (and size), that would be the last tick mark, required and now ticked, which makes our cost-free and high-quality holding, also, antifragile.

Cost-Free-Ness completely does away with Fear

Posted on by
Reply

When nothing from your end is invested, but you still have a holding in the markets,…

…you have created for yourself the state of cost-free-ness.

Cost-free-ness carries with itself a feeling of intense satisfaction…

…because of the sheer magnitude of the feat.

Well, congratulations.

With cost-free-ness comes absence of fear with regard to one’s cost-free holding.

When it’s not costing us, we’re not bothered.

Markets can go anywhere.

They can come down to zero, for all we care.

Fine.

Still unshaken?

Yes.

Why?

If markets comes down to zero, we can look to enter en-masse.

We’ve got principal, remember? Took it out, to create cost-free-ness, tu te souviens?

When markets come down to zero, owing to absence of fear, …

… our focus is not on our (cost-free) holding.

Instead, our focus is on the lucrative entries coming our way.

After markets come down to zero, if they do, they’ll soon reverse.

Then, our new entries will start becoming cost-free, as prices climb.

Soon, we’ll pull principal out again, and will have have new cost-free holdings, which we can transfer to our consolidated cost-free holding account.

Fear is nowhere in the equation.

From Cost-Free-Ness to a Unified, Singular, Comprehensive, 360° Market-Field-Strategy

Posted on by
Reply

So you’re cost-free in the markets…

…and are contemplating your further market-journey ahead.

Yeah, now what?

First-up, let’s grab a hold of what you have in your hands.

You are holding high-quality material which fits your risk- and long-term holding-profile, and, most importantly, this material has now been freed up of its investment-cost.

That’s (very) huge!

So, how does it go from here?

I’ve been here, and have always bungled it up.

This time, I won’t.

Why?

I’ve finally realized the supreme importance of being at this point, and, …

… I wish to keep coming back to this sweet-spot, …

… again, and again and again.

It’s a wonderful feeling.

One feels deep satisfaction, of achieving something big.

Yeah, at Magic Bull, we sheer achieve, write about it, and then achieve more.

We’ll just go on achieving.

We’re not stopping.

The writing part is only to keep a log and to help others on the path.

And of course, it clears one’s thoughts, making one arrive at gems of strategies…

…which all converge and unify into a singular market-approach.

Let’s talk about singular.

At this sweet-spot, the ghost of trading arrives.

One feels like riding the highs by video-gaming through the markets.

And, one falls flat.

It’s not familiar territory, because the approach till now has been one of investing, and investing and trading are diametrically opposite in nature. Meaning that it takes some time to rewire.

Before rewiring properly, …

… one’s already pressing buttons as if buttons are soon going to become extinct, since one is seeking thrills. It’s normal.

One’s achievement-vector points only towards falling flat, such is one’s behaviour.

How do we conquer this pitfall?

We’re going to exhaust this ghost’s potential to our benefit.

We are going to trade, …

… because otherwise, ghost’s not going away.

However, we are going to trade only those scrips that are already inhabiting our cost-free portfolio.

We trade these, as new units, in a different trading account.

Entry is worth one small quantum, whatever small entry-quantum one has defined for oneself.

The objective is to ride a quick run, and make, let’s say, 20% of the traded units cost-free.

That’s would be good, hard, tangible bang for our trading bucks.

Assuming we succeed, we then transfer the cost-free units to our long-term portfolio.

In the event we fail because markets start to reverse, it’s still ok.

It’s a holding we are comfortable holding, into the next market cycle, where we’ll again try and make it cost-free, and we’ll then have cost-averaging on our side, since we’ll have reversed to an investing approach.

It’s win-win everywhere.

Failure comes eventually, because markets ultimately reverse.

No one knows when.

Till them we keep trading and increasing our cost-free-ness.

When failure comes, it’s once, and eventually we hold and try to turn it around.

Because we’re holding quality, the probability of turning the situation around is high.

Before this one failure, we are poised for many possible trading wins, with each win adding to our cost-free-ness.

And there we have it…

…voilà…

… , yes, it’s a unified, singular, comprehensive, 360° Market-field-strategy…

…courtesy your friend and comrade-in-investing. …

… Magic Bull !

🙂

How Big is your Win?

Posted on by
Reply

Assuming you cruise…

…cost-free in the markets now…,

…how big exactly is your win?

Have you stopped to ponder over this fundamental point.

Let’s go over it together.

The question you need to be asking is, …

… “What will happen to my cost-free-ness from this point onwards?”

Well, what’s going to happen solely depends upon your behaviour.

We’ll just study a best-case scenario.

Let’s assume you leave your hard-earned cost-free-ness be, in the markets, for the next 25 years.

What would become of it?

First-up, let’s understand the very nature of your cost-free-ness.

It’s high-quality.

It urges you to hold onto itself, forever.

The fact that you can’t let go of it despite such highs speaks of it as being the essence of your struggle, in terms of quality, if you know what I mean.

High quality material would typically compound at 15% per annum, over the long run, adjusted for inflation.

The figure of 15% per annum compounded, adjusted for inflation, is very achievable for your high-quality material – let’s put it like that – in a market like India’s.

Let’s do the math.

1 * (1.15) ^ 25 = 32.91

There you have it.

Your cost-free portfolio is slated to increase almost 33-fold in the 25 years to come.

That’s 3300% in 25 years when seen as pure appreciation, making 132% per year simple appreciation (not compounded).

That’s how big your win is.

Yes, staying invested with your cost-free-ness will make your cost-free-ness typically burgeon almost 33-fold over the next 25 years.

Go figure.

🙂