Bifurcation Ability – Do you have it?

No?

Develop it asap, please.

Otherwise, don’t be in more than one market. 

However, who is satisfied with just one market?

That would leave one with a lot of time on one’s hands, wouldn’t it?

Time on hands means looking for another market, and another, and another, till one’s time is fully occupied, and one’s thirst for market activity quenched. 

With multiple markets on one’s radar, one needs to bifurcate. 

As in time and mind compartmentalisation…

…which basically translates as…

…that when you’re working on the one market, you’re not letting any overhang from another market bother you. 

If an overhang is bothering you, take two, or take ten, or take however long it takes to kill the overhang. 

Loss, depression, profit, jubilation, exuberation, whatever cause or emotion is prevailing, let its effect come and let it go. Wait for it to go. Then open the next market. The last thing you want is for the other market to be observed and analysed while there’s emotional bias from a former market. 

Therefore…market done…market closed…next market. There’s no other formula here. 

Most market people are both traders and investors. 

This is the area where they really, really need to bifurcate and compartmentalise. 

Why?

Trading and investing involve diametrically opposite implementation strategies, that is why. 

If you’re making changes within your investment portfolio, but are still in the trading mindset, you are going to make major mistakes, which will most definitely disturb whatever balance you have managed to instill within your investment portfolio. 

Similarly, if you’re looking to open a trade and are still in the investing frame of mind, you are optimally poised to botch up your trade big time. 

This is how I approach the matter. 

I do a first half – second half thing. 

The first half during which the markets are open are for investment decisions. 

Then there’s lunch.

By lunch, I forget how the first half of the day has been spent. At least, I try and forget. 

I let the scrumptious lunch help me drown my memory. 

After lunch, the second half starts, which is dedicated to trading decisions.

Strategies used after lunch are diametrically opposite to the ones used before lunch. 

This works for me. 

There comes a time when there are no more investment decisions to be taken, at least for a while. Markets become expensive, and margin of safety vanishes. One is not thinking of entries. Exits are far, far away, as this is long-term investing. Here is when one can dedicate oneself to one’s trading. One’s got the whole day for it. It’s a great situation, because the need for bifurcation between trading and investing is gone. 

Then there comes a time where no trades are developing. Lovely.

Right, pack up, take a break, let’s go for a short and sweet holiday!

I Got the Feeling

What feeling?

The feeling of value-creation – that’s the feeling we’re talking about. 

When can one create value?

When there is value…

… and one sees it,…

…upon which one has the courage to act…

…and make that value one’s own.

This normally happens during and after a correction. 

Therefore…

…a correction is not a cause for depression.

Please understand that and please incorporate that into your DNA.

A correction is a time for action.

You go about adding value to your portfolio, again, and again, and again, as long as the correction lasts, and after, till bullishness sets in beyond your comfort level.

How can you keep on doing this?

This can be achieved by keeping your entry quantum small enough each time. We’ve been over that many times, and only recently, we went over it very thoroughly. 

So, the markets are falling, and you are going on and on, adding value. To be able to follow through properly, your system needs to be fully convinced about what you’re doing, and that’s why, I ask you again. 

Do you have the feeling?

Do you have the feeling that you’re creating value and adding it onto your holding?

Keep doing so, till the feeling persists. 

Stop, when the feeling is gone. 

Save, so that you have the resources to go on and on adding value. 

Enter small, so that you can enter many, many more times, perhaps adding even more value the next time. 

Be sensitive towards when the feeling comes and goes. 

Soon enough, during a burst of bullishness, you’ll see how this knowledge translates into a burgeoning portfolio. 

Defining a Long-Term Hold

Homework, people, is the most essential element of long-term investing.

No wonder they stressed so much upon homework in school. 

They knew what they were talking about. 

And, it has counted. I always took my homework very seriously. 

Things are no different in the markets. 

Do your homework well, and diligently, and the pay-off might surprise you. 

In the markets, you are not paid off with marks, but with appreciation in the value of your holding. 

So, what kind of homework goes into defining a long-term hold?

Today, we have stock-screeners, so use a stock-screener to spit out some potential long-term holds after defining the screener’s parameters as per your wishes. Choose a stock from the results of the screening that you might want to delve into. Then, delve into it. 

In scam-ridden India, the first things that one needs to look for are honesty and integrity.

Look very, very hard.

Do repeated fraud / scam / bribe searches. The web is your oyster. 

Look into salaries of top personnel. Low is good. If salaries are on the higher side, is it justified? Specifically, scrutinize the salary of the top promotor and the CEO. If not justifiable, just drop the stock. 

Look for acts of good governance. 

Openness.

Sharing.

Shareholder-friendliness.

Truth.

Responsibility.

Once honesty and integrity are established, go over the fundamentals. 

Overall, fundamentals will either meet your parameters, or they won’t. Also, it is you who is going to define the fundamentals you wish to gauge, and what you wish to see. 

Are you seeing what you wish to see?

No?

Discard.

Yes?

Proceed.

Is the stock going to be around even after ten years?

Gauge. Product, business-model, circumstances…

You think no?

Discard.

You think yes?

Proceed.

Is the business scalable?

No?

Rethink.

Yes?

Proceed.

Is there debt in the equation?

Are you comfortable with the level of debt?

No?

Discard.

Yes?

Proceed.

Get the overall picture. 

Are you comfortable with the overall feeling you are getting?

No?

Discard. 

Yes?

Proceed.

Look for an entry point. Open the chart and try and enter upon a base or some other technical level. If none is available, wait for a level to come, and then make your entry. 

Thus, you have successfully defined and entered your long-term hold. 

 

Benefit from a Small Entry Quantum

You enter the markets with an amount each time. 

That’s your selected quantum. 

The idea that’s being discussed here is as follows. 

Enter the market as many times as you want. 

Just do one thing before that. 

Adjust your quantum level to a point where it doesn’t pinch you, and…

… such that any entry mistakes make themselves felt only minimally, seen from an overall perspective.

In other words, keep your quantum of entry small.

Also, keep it constant, so that overall errors and benefits are able to average out in the long run.

Let’s get some picturization into play, to elucidate the concept. 

Let us assume that you wish to buy stock X for the long term, and you’ve decided upon staggered entry, many times, with quantum Y each time. 

You enter with one quantum Y on day A in the morning. By late afternoon, you are disappointed to see that the price has moved 5% against you. Happens. You start wishing that you had waited till late afternoon for entry. This can be classified as a random entry error through no fault of yours. Such random “errors” keep happening all the time in the markets. Get used to them.

Because your quantum Y was small, your “error” was also small. That’s the point being made here. 

You are going to enter with quantum Y many times. Sometimes, immediately after entry, price might move in your favour. There might be lesser slippage. You might get a gap-down entry. You might enter after a big correction. Overall, whatever goes in your favour gets written off against all “errors”, such that in the long run, over many entries, the effect of errors is nullified. 

Well you got me there. Nullified, I say. Then you ask what the entry error minimalization talk was all about, when it would get nullified in the first place. 

Which is when I ask that what was it that would lead to nullification?

Many, many entries, right?

What has preserved your capital enough to last for those many, many entries?

A small entry quantum.

Also, psychologically, you know that your small quantum translates into a small potential entry error for you. So, your psyche is all geared up and raring to go. It is not afraid of entry, or of the error you might make upon wrong entry. 

To sum up, at first, a small quantum works in your favour because it causes lesser potential entry error, seen as an amount. 

Then, because your entry quantum is small, your capital lasts for many, many entries, which is when one can start speaking of entry error nullification because of evening out. 

Whichever way you look from, it is the small entry quantum that works for you.

From Park Mode to Flow

Funds find their way …

… to where they want to be.

Thus, if you’re sitting on some surplus, let it sit.

Pressure will be there, to do something about the funds.

Park.

There’s a German saying.

Aus den Augen, aus dem Sinn.

Meaning, that what’s away from one’s eyes is also away from one’s mind, literally translated. However, you do get the drift.

Park your funds in such a manner, that you can’t immediately see them.

It can be something as simple as a savings account linked fixed deposit.

I prefer liquid funds, with my broker in between.

To call in the funds, I need to dial my broker. Then, a full working day needs to elapse before I have access to the funds in my savings account. I find this activation barrier slightly higher than logging in to net banking and nullifying a fixed deposit. That would give access in just two minutes. Too soon for me. I use my off-set day as a buffer, to perhaps contemplate about really going ahead with fund deployment or not. Access in two minutes would mean firing the gun without proper contemplation.

Yes, put an activation barrier between you and your funds. On purpose. Then they are truly parked. What do you do when you park your car? Handbrake on? Of course. So it is with parking of funds too. You put the handbrake on. Your activation barrier is the handbrake.

Now?

Now nothing.

Sit.

Do other stuff.

Lead a full life. Enjoy your life.

Time will pass.

Opportunities will come …

… and go.

Are they making you jump out of your seat?

No?

Right.

Keep park mode on.

Eventually, something will come along that will make you jump.

Homework gives a green signal.

You will want to be in. Every cell in your body will say so.

Kill park modus.

Let the funds flow to where they want to flow, into this opportunity that is making you jump.

Let it be has now turned into let it flow.

The Calm before the Storm

Market forces …

… are a storm.

Minimum exposure or burnout…,

… that’s your choice.

To work in a market, you’ll need to be exposed to that market.

Sure.

However, the extent of that exposure is up to you.

I like to keep it minimal.

Why?

Firstly, what is minimal?

For me, it works out to about an hour a day. Four markets.

All activities in all four markets are accomplished inside of an hour, and then that’s it for the day. See you tomorrow. Nothing pending. Bis Morgen. À bientôt. Kal milenge. This includes any research pertaining to the trading market concerned.

Was this always so?

No.

Initially it used to take me up to three hours.

So how?

Streamlining.

Systems, systems, systems.

Practice.

Eventually, under one hour, with full justice done to each market.

So why minimal?

Market forces are poisonous. They shake up one’s entire nervous system. One’s after-market world-experience can then be tricky, and there can be explosions, misunderstandings, skirmishes, arguments etc.

With the minimal one hour, I still have to deal with milder versions of the above scenarios.

Milder is where I would like to draw a line. Non-market life makes the bulk of one’s existence. Why should one’s market-life be allowed to spoil one’s non-market life?

I have another secret weapon which I would like to share with you today.

It’s a powerful method to deal with market-forces.

Yes, I prepare myself thoroughly to deal with that one hour.

Calm.

I like to accumulate calm.

Till 1 pm I’m accumulating calm, doing other stuff, and no market stuff, but lots and lots (and lots) of other stuff.

1-2 pm. I do my four markets.

Calm – switch on – calm – do – calm – switch off – calm – forget till next day – calm.

That’s it.

This above line is my weapon. It’s very powerful. It won’t let market forces beat you. I share it with you. For free. Why? It gives me joy. I like to share. Sharing increases my happiness. It makes my life fuller.

I’m not going to tell you to start sharing stuff.

It suffices to narrate the effects of sharing.

Whether you want such effects in your life or not is up to you.

One way of getting them is to start sharing.

Resisting the Devil’s Lure

The lure is tremendous. 

It’s flashy. 

It’s in the limelight. 

It’s happening. 

It wants to take you for a ride. 

It’s called Crypto.

There’s talk about “it’s the internet of the future”. There’s talk about how there’ll be no governments and how people will rule over their own currency. Enough to sweep one away. 

However, cryptos go against the grain of everything a steady long-term investor stands for. 

Origin is unknown. 

Banks won’t store. 

Governments rejecting.

Legit?

Do you know the answer?

Main exchange went bust in 2014. Got hacked. 

Terrorist and launderers have found in them a smooth haven. 

How is one to understand Blockchain?

X number of people agreeing that the sky is purple – does that make the sky purple?

What about all the cousins?

There are many cryptos. 

There’s one springing up every few weeks.

Which ones are going to be around in 10 or maybe 20 years?

Yes, long-term investors think …

… long-term. 

Cryptos are making people taste fast bucks. 

Fast bucks made in a few days can spell disaster…

…because this is a trajectory that makes one want to bet the farm at the peak. 

Crypto players are being set up for something big. 

The amount of ammunition prevailing is enough to bludgeon lots. 

Pigs will get slaughtered. Always happens. Very few people in the world know how to trade. Let alone knowing how to trade, very few can even define what a trade is. 

Cryptos are a trade. Period.

That too, if one wants to trade cryptos.

Why wouldn’t one want to trade cryptos?

For starters, very high beta. Not many traders are comfortable with high betas. 

Stepping into the crypto world means stepping out of one’s area of expertise initially. 

Why would one want to step out of one’s zone? Circle of competence means a lot to successful traders. 

Diversification?

Have crypto on your plate, and the sheer hullabaloo will disturb your other trading. The one you’ve taken so long to build up. Do you want that?

No. I don’t. I’m happy in my circle of competence.

I don’t want the disturbance. 

I don’t want the extremely high betas. 

I don’t want to get slaughtered. 

I want origin. 

I want legit. 

I don’t want bust exchanges. 

I don’t want to make my computer a target. 

I don’t want to be doing what terrorists and launderers are doing.

I don’t buy the mining story. 

If the sky is blue, I want to have the freedom to call it blue, even if a billion people are calling it purple.

My common sense says no. 

Therefore, my exposure to cryptos is nil. 

I resist the devil’s lure.

When do you know that you’ve detached?

We’ve been targeting detachment.

As in, being in the markets and simultaneously unperturbed.

We’ve said it’s very possible and within our reach.

How do we know we’re there?

You’ve felt market-forces, right? Of course. If you’re in a market, you feel it’s force.

You’ve detached when this force doesn’t bog you down. It’s as simple as that.

Or is it?

Many spend their lives in the markets and fail to even define the existence of market-forces, let alone deal with them.

You are different.

You’ll not only deal with these forces, but you’ll control their effect on yourself too.

Yes, you’ll have to call the shots. It’s you, or the market takes over.

First-up, you are only letting in very little. Yes, you are only connecting to the market upon market action. Period.

No market action? No connection. You are now doing other stuff, till there is new market action. Your mind is also thinking other stuff, not market-stuff. For body and mind to remain aloof, quantum of money involved in the market needs to be below a threshold. It needs to be at chip-change level enough to not make you think twice about what’s going to happen to you, if you were to lose this money. Nothing’s going to happen to you. The potential loss would be so minuscule, that it won’t move even a whisker of yours. Be at that level, and not thinking about the markets at will is going to be a breeze.

Of course you’ll ask how you’re supposed to tame a beast if most of the time you’re disconnected to it.

You see, that’s the whole thing. 

You don’t let the beast get to you. 

You get to it. 

Upon requirement. 

What is requirement?

Analysis?

Not necessarily.

Doing analysis, you’re connected to your analysis. You’re in your Zone. You’re relaxed. There’s no live-feed (mostly). You’re analyzing end of the day data. There’s no tension. The past is sprawled before you. You conjure up strategies for the future. It’s fun. 

Connection comes when you go live. That’s when the market hits you with its full force. 

You let the force bounce off you, do your work, and then switch off the live-feed.

Zak Zak Zak, to borrow a phrase for swiftness from Germany.

How so fast?

You’ve planned your market action before going live. Once you go live, you can’t avoid seeing stuff you don’t want to. However, you focus on the correct clicks and logout upon job done. Then you forget what you didn’t want to see. 

The main indices remain with you. It’s hard to forget them. It’s ok. There will be remnant force. You’ll learn to carry it without being affected by it. Start by resisting the urge to look up the index level at a random time of the day. Save it for live connection. 

At times, you’ll need live connection for analysis. That’s that. Deal with it. 

Once you’re done with the market for the day, … , are you done? Or do you get back to it despite being done?

If you do, you’ve not detached. 

If you don’t, well congratulations, you have. Now you can go about enjoying your non-market life too!…….

🙂

Markets & Detachment – Possible?

We’re pushing limits here.

Making the improbable possible – doesn’t that give you a kick?

Am I even qualified to talk about detachment in the markets?

Well, I can at least tell you how I’m approaching the subject.

Hmmmm – where to begin, let’s see…

Let’s start at the nascent stage where a pang of attachment causes you to worry.

You sit up.

What’ll happen to my stock?

What if there’s a huge crash overnight?

What if I get wiped out?

What will my wife think of me?

Will I become the laughing stock of the Universe?

It’s ok.

Worry.

Burn your heart out worrying.

One needs to feel the pain of the disease to want to weed it out comprehensively.

Worrying and burning your heart out is not the only thing you are doing, though.

You are simultaneously making a list of all the questions that are cropping up courtesy your burning heart.

Yes, yes, make the list. Cast aside the silliness of the questions. No matter how silly a question is, include it in the list if it has cropped up even once. Get on with it.

There then comes a time where you can confidently say, that yes, my list of questions is pretty much complete. No new question seems to be asking itself.

Wonderful.

Now go about creating the circumstances for each question to not crop up.

Meaning that you have undergone actions that are now enabling you to answer each question with “this will not happen because I have created such infrastructures that exactly this will not happen”.

How are you addressing those question for which you can’t create such infrastructures, like an imminent market-crash, or what your spouse might think of you?

To address these particular questions, you create circumstances that cause you to be least affected in the event of the appearance of such questions.

For example, to be mostly insulated from the effects of crashes, buy with margin of safety. Or, set stops. Or, don’t buy. Short. Hedge. Do what suits you, but do it.

Regarding spouse, he or she will think what she thinks. You can’t change that. You just need to have a clear conscience. Commit those actions that give you the clear conscience. Hahahahahaha! 🙂

Right.

There then comes a time, where all queries have been comprehensively addressed. They stop cropping up.

Next, you need to stop committing those actions that can act as catalysts for a query to pop up.

Only look at the market when you have to. Don’t, otherwise. Try only looking at the underlying. Broader markets – well, poisonous, keep these at a minimum. Try and bring down your market action to once a day. Limit the action to the minimal time possible.

Weed out any kind of market conversation with other individuals. There’s no need. There’s you, there’s the market, there’s your system. That’s all you need.

Keep brokers and middle-men at a manageable level. Preferably at zero, and maximally at lower single digits. Only do business with them, no loose-talk, no exchange of tips. Tips are another big poison.

Find your own investments or trades. Resources are phenomenal today. You have everything at your beck and call with a computer and an internet connection.

Shut off business TV. More than a glance at the business page of the newspaper is unnecessary. Business magazines? Forget it. Every piece of info is accessible pinpointedly on the net. You wish to enter into an investment at the nascent stage, right? By the time the story gets published, smart money is already in, and there’s already been a run-up. Your margin of safety is gone.

Finally, take a look at yourself now.

Your results are improving drastically…

…and you’ve detached in the markets…!

Who the hell wants to detach?

Easy to spell, right?

Hard to attain, though. 

Why would one want to detach anyways?

Detachment is a must for success in the markets.

Any market.

Detachment is not really a human instinct.

We are born because we are attached. 

Attachment comes naturally to us. 

Detachment does not. 

Cut to the markets. 

Market psychology works in reverse to our natural instincts. That’s why, losers are many, and winners a few. 

That, by the way, is the similarity between detachment and market success.

We’ll need to learn to detach, if we want winning market-play. 

This is an achievement-oriented society. 

We like resumés.

We like to post it the moment we nail it. 

We like to book profit the moment we have a mover. 

We like to hide our short-comings. 

Weakness?

What weakness?

We nurture our losers, hoping they’ll at least make it to break-even one day so that we can book them. 

See?

Yes, market psychology works in reverse to our way of functioning. 

What does detachment do?

It takes us away from the euphoria of a mover. 

We learn to let the mover … move. 

We learn to not book it. 

It then moves, and moves. 

Eventually, it starts to fall.

We set a stop and let the market throw us out. 

That’s how one exits an underlying showing a profit. 

What has detachment done here?

It has caused us to book a big profit instead of a small one. 

What else does detachment do?

It reforms us such that we recognize and acknowledge weakness, and then cut the weakness off immediately upon such recognition and acknowledgement, as per the definitions of our trading systems.

What has detachment done here?

It has caused us to suffer a smaller loss now rather than a potentially much larger loss later.

Repetition of this cycle – again and again and again – sorts us out for life. 

From Target to Target

What’s your target?

Big one?

Fine. Good for you. Nothing wrong with having a big target. Go for it.

Big targets appear far.

That will need to be tackled.

Why so?

Because big targets are big, they take … you guessed it … time.

Getting to the big target requires handling time.

Yeah, that’s the killer.

Barely anyone around claims to manage time successfully.

Managing time can also mean inaction.

Barely anyone acknowledges that.

Time does us in.

We lose sight of the big target.

Game over?

Or is it?

No, not game over.

Nobody’s telling anyone to not have a big target.

Have it. Fine.

However, have many small ones.

Yeah. Many small targets.

Move from small target to small target.

That’s how you bridge your month, week, or even your day.

Oh, one other thing.

As far as the big target is concerned, forget about time.

Then, as you move from small target to small target, and you’ve forgotten about time, well, voilà, guess what just arrived…?

Yeah, your big target.

Cheers!

Happy Seventh Birthday, Magic Bull ! 

Are you happy? 

What makes you happy?

Have you discovered that? 

Do you do what you’ve discovered? 

Do you try and stay happy? 

Writing makes me happy. 

Everything else goes into the background. 

Words remain.

They will remain beyond me. 

They are powerful. 

Writing has a meaning. 

It organizes thoughts. 

It elucidates concepts. 

It helps those in need. 

It breaks paths. 

It sets standards. 

Sure, I do other meaningful things with my life. 

Writing is right up there at the front of those meaningful things. 

Happy seventh birthday, Magic Bull ! 

When the Groove Yields Infinity

What’s an ideal groove?

It’s a frame-set…

…that makes you outperform.

When you find your ideal groove, you keep levelling up, as if it were the daily norm.

Why?

You feel like working.

The groove is such.

It’s a coupling of the right environment, the right time-sets, the right people, the right systems…and you.

And, it’s not just any odd coupling.

It’s the ideal coupling.

Saying that you feel like working is actually an understatement.

You feel like outperforming. That’s a more accurate statement.

Even more accurate would be, that outperformance becomes a habit with you.

Such is the groove.

Wow!

How does one find this groove?

HA!

Now you’re asking the million dollar question.

Many perish without finding it.

Many have never heard of it. They just don’t know any better.

Some have heard of it, but their circumstances are such, that they don’t have the time, resources or energy to look for it.

A few are able to search for it.

Even fewer make it past strategy.

Some of these are able to couple their many strategies into a full-fledged system.

Now comes fitting.

One needs to now fit-fit-fit.

A handful will keep fitting their systems…

…and fitting and fitting…

till the system fits…

…themselves.

When you hear that fitting sound come through, like a broken bone being set and making a loud popping or snapping sound, you know that you have a fit.

Once a successful system fits you, it is then capable of yielding infinity.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ashes to Ashes, Bitcoin to Bust

Hey,

Sure, Bitcoin and all…

…everyone is humming the word.

Those who didn’t know of its existence a very short while ago, are all gung-ho about it.

Some experts are talking of a million dollars. They’re expecting it to touch a cool million per Bitcoin.

Other slightly conservative ones are talking about half a million.

Last month, someone thought it was chocolate candy that looked like a gold coin. This month, he’s just bought his first Bicoin. I think he paid the equivalent of almost USD 4000 for it.

Citizens are moving black money across borders with it.

It’s original signature exchange in Japan failed in early 2014.

An act of sabotage, perhaps?

Governments want it down.

The US will probably do everything in its capacity to stop Bitcoin from becoming the go-to currency of the future world instead of the USD.

Rumour has it that China has already imposed sanctions against it.

Well, well, well, what do we have here?

There’s a huge push and pull going on.

Who is pushing?

Launderers and terrorists, for starters. That’s where the bulk buying pressure is coming from. They don’t care about paying an extra buck to launder, or to buy weapons with. They’re applying real pressure, and the price has appropriately shot up.

Who is pulling?

Governments. Sanctions spoil the rise. A collapsed exchange enforces the law of gravity.

Where is this going?

Well, sure, who knows, but there’s a few things that one can say or even ask.

Has anyone seen Bitcoin?

What are its credentials?

Where did it come from?

Facts and not ghost-stories would be good here. Does anyone know the facts for sure?

Can one trust something whose whole exchange has once failed?

Now, with the Chinese move, God know what might happen?

Is the machine or device on which Bitcoin is stored not a target?

Where is the peace of mind? Can one sleep soundly with Bitcoin stored on one’s computer?

Bottomline is, there’s lots of ammunition in place to cause some massive landslides here.

Given that, there’s massive room for laundering and terrorism. The world’s launderers and terrorists aren’t done yet. Pressure will keep coming back in the current world situation.

It’s an ideal trading situation that has developed, both for the longs and the shorts.

Fine, trade Bitcoin. Make money. Good for you. I personally don’t trade it. Am happy trading stocks and currency instead, Those are my areas of expertise, and I don’t operate outside the areas of my expertise. However, if you’re making a killing trading Bitcoin, I’m really happy for you.

Just don’t do one thing.

Don’t get married to it.

Meaning, don’t pick it up at these 0% margin of safety prices, never then to let it go.

There’s so much ammunition that can bring it down, that one’s investment could even get wiped out during a swift crash, especially if it has been picked up on margin.

So, careful, people, careful.

Yeah, people, while investing in Bitcoin, tread cautiously. Wait for margin of safety to develop before picking up. Secure your device. Turn it off when you sleep. Back it up, if your backup can’t be hacked.

And…

…don’t bet the farm.

Finding your Groove

Form matters.

Form as in – shape.

What’s the implementable shape of your strategy?

You might have identified your market strategy after a lot of effort.

However, you are still not succeeding with it.

You know it’s the right strategy for you.

What’s off?

Why is your strategy not making you money?

It’s probably not being implemeted in sync with your character-, time- and risk-profile(s).

Your strategy is not in sync with YOU.

Bring it in sync, and then implement it.

You will see the difference.

Tone it down. Tone it up. You know yourself. By now, you’ve also recognized your risk-profile. Play with time. Which time-frame are you most comfortable with?

Make your strategy an extension of yourself.

Sleepless nights means you are doing it wrong.

Keep fitting-fitting-fitting till there’s total synchronization.

If you are not able to totally fit the strategy even after solid tweaking, look for a new strategy.

When a strategy has an edge, and is successfully fitted to oneself, it can be implemented with success.

Find your groove.

What does that mean?

It means the creation of circumstances for yourself where you are able to implement the succesful strategy again and again and again.

The strategy should make you feel like going for it repeatedly.

Nothing in your environment should distract you enough to make you fail to implement the successful strategy. Try and bring it on auto-pilot as much as you can. If something manual remains, try and create a life for yourself where that manual step can be repeated with ease.

There will be many disturbances.

You’ll need to attenuate these enough to put the manual steps in motion.

That is the toughest part.

Constraints keep cropping up, and we are not able to implement because of them.

Yes, the most difficult part is for your groove to keep churning despite constraints.

Finding your groove is the precursor to maintaining your groove.

Stocks and the Art of Sitting

When can you sit?

When you’re comfortable.

It’s as simple as that.

When can you remain comfortable over very long periods of time?

When you’ve bought with appropriate margin of safety. That’s when.

Not enough margin of safety at time of purchase means jumping around and tension everytime the market rumbles.

Do you want that?

Are you investing to be on the roller-coaster day in and day out?

If yes, why are you investing in the first place?

Why don’t you just trade?

Be on your roller-coaster and recognize what you are doing.

There’s nothing wrong with being on the roller-coaster.

However, there’s something hugely wrong with being on it and not know that you are on it.

Instead, you have told yourself that you’ve pickled away your doubloons safely for a lifetime.

With inadequate margin of safety at the time of purchase, nothing could be further from the truth.

Why?

Biochemistry.

It changes when there’s tension.

Due to a changed biochemistry, we make mistakes.

We sell at a bottom, or we double-up thinking it’s the bottom, only to sink further, and then we actually go and sell at the bottom.

Bottomline is, we are likely to make vital mistakes if there’s something disturbing us.

Let’s remove the cause of the disturbance, so that we can go on to discover the art of sitting.

While investing, let’s buy with adequate margin of safety.

What’s your Answer to Dictatorial Legislature?

Cyprus almost bust…

Money from savings accounts being used to pay off debt…

Five European nations going down the same road…

US economy managing to function for now, but without any security moat (they’ve used up all their moats)…

Our own fiscal deficit at dangerous levels…

Scams in every dustbin…

Mid- & small-caps have already bled badly…

Let’s not even talk about micro-caps…

Large-caps have just started to fall big…

Just how far could this go?

Let’s just say that it’s not inconceivable to think… that this could go far.

Large-caps have a long way to fall. I’m not saying they will fall. All I’m saying is that the safety nets are way below.

I see one big, big net at PE 9, and another large one at PE 12. Getting to either will mean bloodshed.

Inflation figures are not helping.

In a last-ditch attempt to get reelected, the government recently announced a budget for which it’ll need to borrow through its nose.

Oops, I forgot, it doesn’t have a nose.

The whole world is aware about work-culture ground-truths in India.

Things are out of control, and this could go far, unless a miracle occurs and Mr. Modi gets elected. Before such an eventuality, though, things could go far.

When large-caps fall, everything else falls further.

How prepared are you?

Hats off to those with zero exposure.

Those with exposure have hopefully bought with large margins of safety.

Those who are bleeding need a plan B.

In fact, a plan B should have been formulated during good times.

Anyways, how prepared is one for a Cyprus-scenario, where dictatorial last-minute legislature allows the government to whack money from savings accounts?

In future, you might need to find a solution for loose cash in savings accounts. It needs to be kept in a form where government doesn’t have access to it.

As of now, what’s serving the purpose is an online mutual fund platform, through which loose cash can be moved and parked into liquid mutual fund schemes. For government to exercise full control over mutual fund money, it’ll probably need to be more than a bankruptcy scenario.

That’s just for now. Adaptability is the name of the game. It’s always good to be aware of one’s plans B, C & D.

And Now For The Most Useless Question

“Your bread and butter is the trade. Focus on the trade. Focus on entry. Focus on trade management. Focus on exit. Don’t focus on anything else. Blank the whole world out while you trade.

Then, when you reach home, focus on your family.”

Uday Nath's avatarmagic bull

For the trader, the most useless question regarding the markets is … …

“The Why of the Markets.”

Why is there a spike or a crash?

Frankly, who cares?

Just forget about it. The “Why” of the markets is baggage, it’s a load, and exactly this particular load needs to be abandoned.

When a trade is on, one’s got enough emotional overload to deal with anyways. Let the pundits bother themselves with this “Why”. It’s their bread and butter. Your bread and butter is the trade. Focus on the trade. Focus on entry. Focus on trade management. Focus on exit. Don’t focus on anything else. Blank the whole world out while you trade.

Then, when you reach home, focus on your family.

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Are You a Whiner?

Uday Nath's avatarmagic bull

2 quick questions:

Do u play the markets? And r u a whiner?

If your answer to both questions is yes, third question: Do u want to change this condition?

If your answer to this third question is yes, please read on.

Whiners whine. They complain when things don’t go as planned. Also they don’t have any backup strategies. Mostly, they don’t have any front-up strategies either.

So, before moving into any market, formulate your strategy thoroughly. Define acceptable levels of loss. Define a strategy to implement if these levels are hit.

Also define a profit-taking strategy.
Define the tenure of investment.

Basically, define yourself. Have a very clear idea about what your risk-profile looks like.

Play it small initially, till you gain confidence.

And stop whining. 🙂

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You must be Joking, Mr. Nath

Folks, I am sooo not joking!

Uday Nath's avatarmagic bull

Ok, so there are aliens, so what?

I mean, is that so hard to believe? Which law says that Earth is the centre of activity in this universe?

Look around you. The horizon is full of scams. An honest management is most difficult to find. Honesty and integrity have become alien virtues. Scarce, don’t bump into them in normal life, and you might read an odd story about them in the papers.

So where does this leave you as an investor?

In a dishonest world, one needs to think in a warped manner to make money. You know, “two steps away from the norm” kinda thinking. So if the norm is to buy on a dip, in Kalyuga one waits to buy on a mega-dip. And these have started occuring more often than they used to. 10-Sigma or Black Swan events happen every now and then.

The thing I like…

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