Magic

Sure, …

… nobody said this was a bottom already.

No signs of a bottom.

For all you know, the real correction just started.

So, everyone is asking, …

… why in the world a buyer is buying …

… now.

Confused? No need to be.

First up, please understand, that money enters the market in a planned fashion when position sizing rules are in place.

Oh, there’s one more safety rule.

In a day, only so much goes in, in total.

Let’s say what you are referring to as a bottom comes within, hmm, two days, one day, four hours, one hour… ,

… whenever it comes.

Do you actually believe and / or have the guts to get fully invested in that minuscule time-frame?

Let me answer that for you. NO.

Why am I so clear on this?

Moving big money in one shot when the whole world’s pajamas are falling, and watching it possibly become half in a few days will most likely lead to neurosis and / or psychosis.

It is mentally digestible to keep buying at levels as per the entry quantum allowed by one’s position-sizing algorithm.

Though the overall market or index or sector benchmark might not be signalling a bottom, individual stocks hover around correction levels, threatening to recover from there.

We let them hover.

If they are not declining further from a correction level after a bit, we pick up one lot.

What’s the lot?

It’s a function of one’s networth at that point.

What function?

You decide. Yes. Your decide your own position size at each point thus, as per a mathematical calculation. You can decide to programme this function, for example, in a manner that you go in more when you are winning and go in less when you are losing. Or vice-versa. As per your personality and risk-profile. You call the shots. You are the master of your money and journey.

As time goes by, and as the correction deepens, you have lots of lots in. Ideally, you get fully invested before recovery. Compared with trying to move in fully at the exact bottom, well you might get lucky with the latter option, but it will burn your nerves, and resulting psychosis can last longer than when rational decisions will need to be taken. Not worth it. Position-size, entry quantum, going in bit by bit – this is what our nervous system can handle well without getting damaged. Markets change within months, perhaps weeks, and…

… when the magic happens, you deploy your exit strategy, whatever that is. Be rationally around to do so.

Or, simply, don’t do anything except watching the magic, …

… of a low buying average develop into a multiple.

Mindset

How long is this lasting?

Everyone’s asking.

I have another question, …

…since no one knows the answer to that above question.

My question is, …

… as far as your market strategy is concerned, …

… why are you even asking?

Just implement your strategy na.

Asking means you don’t know what to do.

Which brings us to some more observations.

‘Don’t know what to do’ state of affairs is digestible, …

… if this is your first time.

First time as in first time facing such conditions.

Conditions?

Panic. Confusion. Sell and ask later mindset. Gullibility. Mass hypnosis. Massive spin-doctoring. Etc.

If you’ve seen such stuff before and haven’t devised a plan for next time round, you are not excused, but please do so now.

If you’ve been through all this more than twice, and still don’t have a plan for situations like this one now, well, maybe you should rethink your market foray. Are you in the right space? Are you doing it out of compulsion? Keeping up with some Joneses? Whatever applies. Rethink. Shape in, put a strategy in place for market crashes, or, shape out, meaning, do something else where your expertise is challenged, and emerges forth naturally.

It boils down to rewiring.

What boils down to rewiring?

One’s behaviour during a crash.

Not panicking? Coolly implementing set strategy? Liquid enough, exactly for such situations? Not looking over your shoulder to see what strategy someone else is implementing? Not asking others for opinions? Implementing your own, mapped course of action without regret?

Great. That’s a fantastic mindset to have earned.

Such a mindset is going to take you places when mass psychologies reverse.

Wait and watch.

Market Ability

Hammers…

…hammer.

That’s their job.

They do a good job, at hammering.

At times, the market behaves like a hammer.

Market players learn from hammerings.

Question is, can market players learn without being hammered?

I don’t think so.

One can psych oneself into believing otherwise, I’ll give you that.

And, for a while, things will look like all’s good.

Point is, one isn’t looking for the hammer, …

… the reason for which being, that one has never experienced one.

That’s when the hammer falls, when and where one is least expecting it.

It is better to undergo a hammer event in the early days of one’s market career, and while one’s young.

Young – because – a). one plays small when one’s young, mostly by default, owing to there not being ample access to fund supply. Also, b). in the early days of one’s market exposure, the bulk of one’s mistakes and miscomprehensions emerge. The combination of these two facts a). and b). leads to losses that are bearable (youth has backups, like parents). In our youth, we tend more to brush it off and move ahead, full of energy. Yeah, youth has the energy, and time (upcoming multiple market-cycles), to not only emerge from a hammer, but to go on to prosper from the now ingrained learning.

Issue starts when our corpus is big and we still don’t know what a hammer is.

Issue compounds when we then confuse our ability to implement money into markets, in an effort to make it work, with actual market ability.

What is market ability?

It all starts with risk profile.

Some people die without having recognized their risk profile

Then, after having recognized one’s risk profile upon encountering some hammers and seeing our bodies and minds react to these, we move on to systems.

From development to fine-tuning to implementation of a system, we keep chipping and chiselling away at our strategy. We emerge with one that has an edge. We continuously work to keep our edge profitable.

Simultaneously, we throw in risk management. Development of an emergency fund is part of this.

Discipline.

Regimen.

Rules.

Let’s throw in some unpredictability, on purpose.

After putting one system on semi-auto, we work on another, and so on and so forth. We use our profits to diversify and make ourselves more secure, ideally anti-fragile.

Market ability is a successfully implemented combo of all these factors and perhaps more.

It includes being a good human being at home too. There’s no question of letting out the effects of a bad market day on one’s family members. We’re stopping all market action before anything like this develops. Harmony paves the way for another serene market day…

…about to dawn.

Feeling

Who writes the rule-book for your market-life?

You do.

Why do you do it?

Nobody else is qualified enough.

You know yourself better than others.

Don’t you?

Thus, one feels one’s way through the markets, setting up lamp-posts and rules.

For example, I recently discover how to integrate my investing life with my trading life, in one particular market.

It takes me a long, long time to do so.

Nothing has really worked on this front.

Both lives have been getting affected, adversely, because of each other.

It’s outright frustrating and, I just sheer stop trading this market, to allow my investing life to prosper.

Simultaneously, I keep feeling my way through, trying out various permutations and combinations…

…, one of which seems to be working.

How do I know?

I’m trading again.

What have I done that I wasn’t doing before?

I haven’t been using the concept of exhaustion.

I exhaust my ability to invest, opportunity-wise.

Since I follow a small entry-quantum approach, liquidity exhaustion isn’t going to work.

Opportunity exhaustion is.

As opportunities keep coming, I keep going in, each time with small quanta, not changing anything in my investment approach.

One fine day, there is no margin of safety being offered.

I don’t feel like going in.

I am exhausted.

I shut down my investment widow…

…and then {[:-)]}, open my trading window.

Within an hour, I take a trade.

Lo and behold, integration has taken place.

Seamlessly.

All our demons are inside of us.

If one is not dying, exhaust it with feeling, even temporarily, to look after your other vital activities.