Tag Archives: #Disruption

Constants

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Hey.

We play the game…

…with numbers.

Numbers are…

…our thing.

The thing with numbers is…

…that once we create a constant for ourselves…

…a pivot…

…something like a compass…

…AI doesn’t have access to it.

It’s our number.

It’s in our mind.

By the time AI gains direct access to our mind, we’ll be gone.

For example, we establish a low buying average, over many buys, in something we consider to hold value.

Each individual establishes their own, meaning…

…it’s each person’s own low buying average.

It decides the multiple.

It’s the centre-half. The libero. It creates the play. It’s unique to a person. No AI access. The whole game has been taken away from AI. It remains a human game. It’s not what the masses are doing. It’s contrarian. It’s going to make money.

Volatility is a constant.

Disruption is a constant.

Fear is a constant.

Greed is a constant.

Mass-behaviour is a constant.

Pigs getting slaughtered is a constant.

We play it by constants.

We’ve even started using unique mass-logic defying indicators, that only we have defined, that no one else knows about or can dream of, and we’re using them successfully, with no access to AI.

We’re functioning from within a matrix where we control the game, AI doesn’t.

Beauty is, outside of our protective matrix, we have access to all of AI’s capabilities, should we choose to use them.

Not yet though. Specifically after the 160+ girls murder rumoured to be caused by intel provided by AI, correct me if I’m wrong. AI as it currently is doesn’t seem ready for seamless implementation. All those foolishly believing so at this moment are the pigs referred to above. Pigs get what? Slaughtered. I didn’t say this first. It’s a common market saying. Markets are a – constant. We trust constants.

There will be many more blow-ups before seamlessness is achieved.

Think of banking systems causing and compounding massive errors because of blind reliability on AI.

This of AI suggested war strategy backfiring because of lack of understanding of human psyche.

Think of investment strategy imploding, left with eyes wide shut to AI, owing to lack of proper understating of human behaviour and its unpredictability. Anyways, on the plus side…

…think of any level of positive upheaval that AI will cause.

Think maximum.

Thought?

Since we play it by constants, we’ll continue to thrive, maximum disruption and beyond.

Such is the power of constants, that we successfully harness.

Shame, Shame, West

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The next scam is here.

Please don’t get fooled.

Unfortunately, many already are.

You see, the storyline is so, so believable.

However, only on the surface. A few scratches, and the story falls apart.

There is something about human intelligence. Behaviour. Instinct. Decision making prowess. Mental synthesis.

Everything described here, …

… AI is not.

So, why give it that status?

What’s the agenda?

Ohhh, there’s a very solid agenda, and since one can’t fool all the people all the time, we see through the bullsh**.

First up, Western IT is hugely, hugely over-invested. Neck deep. Rational minds in other parts of the world are not. The occident needs ratification and burden-sharing. Orient is not biting. So make it bite. Unleash a scam. Perhaps it was a sop allowed through in the recent trade deal, since some of the spin doctors being utilized are actually Indian.

Secondly, rendered useless? Give us a break. Spun yarns don’t render useless quality, zero-debt, free cash-flow rich, lean, diligent companies. On the contrary, agility and versatility allows such companies to adapt very fast, particularly owing to huge spending power and zero obligations. Indian IT is adapting, FAST, and whatever artificial crashes are being caused owing to the foolishness of pigs, are buying opportunities. PERIOD.

Thirdly, what kind of a track record do the likes of current disruptors have? Like, four years. In other words, NOTHING. Current disruptors have no experience, themselves, in emerging successfully from disruptions. Indian IT has been navigating, SUCCESSFULLY, through all disruptions since the ‘80s. So, like, Western AI, garner a track record first, then talk. Also, an announcement alone, that you are potentially capable of doing XYZ, is not going to cut it.

Please remember, the problem with AI is, everything functions supremely till it doesn’t. That’s the point where the value of human capital is realized, to navigate mankind successfully through and out of the dead end. A dead end in critical ventures is not acceptable. Writing Indian IT off for dead is wishful thinking and reeks of a jealous to the hilt society that fumes with envy at the cash-richness, the zero-indebtedness, the ability to adapt at amazing speeds, the start-up laden clean balance-sheets etc. etc. etc. of Indian IT. Shame, shame, West.

Whetting

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What does it take…

…to convince my mind…

…that something’s a very long-term hold?

What am I looking for?

Longevity. Actually, perceived longevity. Perceived in my mind. Mind matters. When the mind is shaken, one lets go. For something to be a long-term hold, the mind needs to be long-term convinced.

Lack of dependency. On water. On other natural resources. On CapEx. On real-estate.

Immunity to trend-change.

Adaptability to disruption. As much proximity to a state of anti-fragility as possible. Entry price and cost-free-ness will reinforce proximity to anti-fragility.

Diligent, share-holder friendly management with good track record, with repeated examples of wealth-creation through exploitation of multiple avenues available.

A product line that is more dependent on human capital than on machinery.

Copious, intelligent, reasonably priced human capital. With that we’ve knocked out inflation.

Very decent margin of safety at entry point. With that we’ve accounted for any remaining idiosyncrasies in capable managements and / or otherwise humane promoters.

Lack of debt. We’re ok with reasonable amounts borrowed at reasonable rates for day to day working capital, but not a big fan of long-term debt.

No smoke cloud. Talking about scams, frauds, bribes, court-cases and the like.

That’s ten things already.

I take these ten, sift through the Nifty 500, and get 43 underlyings, which, for me, satisfy these criteria.

That’s it.

I play with these.

That’s all the whetting I need.

You’re saying I didn’t mention numbers. Metrics. Ratios.

Numbers come and go. Basics remain. When the basics are right, numbers will be intact for long, and for a few quarters they won’t be. Those are re-entry opportunities.

Good basics create good numbers, repeatedly. We are making sure that we are only entering into good basics.

Now the ball’s in your court.

Create your criteria.

What works for you?

Sift through.

Narrow down.

What remains are your whetted stocks.

Start your game.

It’s a long one, so…

…wishing you stamina!

🙂