Magic

Sure, …

… nobody said this was a bottom already.

No signs of a bottom.

For all you know, the real correction just started.

So, everyone is asking, …

… why in the world a buyer is buying …

… now.

Confused? No need to be.

First up, please understand, that money enters the market in a planned fashion when position sizing rules are in place.

Oh, there’s one more safety rule.

In a day, only so much goes in, in total.

Let’s say what you are referring to as a bottom comes within, hmm, two days, one day, four hours, one hour… ,

… whenever it comes.

Do you actually believe and / or have the guts to get fully invested in that minuscule time-frame?

Let me answer that for you. NO.

Why am I so clear on this?

Moving big money in one shot when the whole world’s pajamas are falling, and watching it possibly become half in a few days will most likely lead to neurosis and / or psychosis.

It is mentally digestible to keep buying at levels as per the entry quantum allowed by one’s position-sizing algorithm.

Though the overall market or index or sector benchmark might not be signalling a bottom, individual stocks hover around correction levels, threatening to recover from there.

We let them hover.

If they are not declining further from a correction level after a bit, we pick up one lot.

What’s the lot?

It’s a function of one’s networth at that point.

What function?

You decide. Yes. Your decide your own position size at each point thus, as per a mathematical calculation. You can decide to programme this function, for example, in a manner that you go in more when you are winning and go in less when you are losing. Or vice-versa. As per your personality and risk-profile. You call the shots. You are the master of your money and journey.

As time goes by, and as the correction deepens, you have lots of lots in. Ideally, you get fully invested before recovery. Compared with trying to move in fully at the exact bottom, well you might get lucky with the latter option, but it will burn your nerves, and resulting psychosis can last longer than when rational decisions will need to be taken. Not worth it. Position-size, entry quantum, going in bit by bit – this is what our nervous system can handle well without getting damaged. Markets change within months, perhaps weeks, and…

… when the magic happens, you deploy your exit strategy, whatever that is. Be rationally around to do so.

Or, simply, don’t do anything except watching the magic, …

… of a low buying average develop into a multiple.

Wires

In a one-liner…

…the ‘magic’ formula…

…to crack the market would be to…

…’buy low, sell high’.

Reading this line in a normal mental condition, it is natural for us to say…

…’oh, so simple?!!’

That’s just it.

Cracking Mrs. Market is a ‘simple’ process… … … .

However,…

…the question that screams for our attention is…

…’pray who is in a normal mental condition?’

And the answer is this.

When it counts, almost no one.

When does it count?

At lows and highs.

At lows we are in a frenzy. Panic. ‘Blood’. No one considers buying, even remotely. Those who want to, and would have, are not liquid. Exceptions take the plunge.

At highs, we are exuberant. We know it all. We are the kings. Please don’t tell us to sell. We’re not selling. ‘Hubris’. Those who want to sell, and would have sold, are told irrefutably by family members to forget about even thinking of selling. Exceptions ward off the pressure and make the sale.

We want to be those exceptions.

How do we get there?

It’s about wiring.

Our normal wiring makes us act normally, in a manner where big profits can’t be made.

We need to rewire.

We need to be uncomfortable when markets rise, uncomfortable enough to at least take our principals out. During lows, we need to find comfort in the very idea of entering, thus redeploying our freed-up principals.

How does one rewire?

By being in the market…

…small…

…for long…

…learning to lose small…

…and to win big by letting profits run.

Perhaps very big, over time, by allowing one’s cost-free-ness to remain in the market for a very long hold.