Tag Archives: #pigs

Constants

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Hey.

We play the game…

…with numbers.

Numbers are…

…our thing.

The thing with numbers is…

…that once we create a constant for ourselves…

…a pivot…

…something like a compass…

…AI doesn’t have access to it.

It’s our number.

It’s in our mind.

By the time AI gains direct access to our mind, we’ll be gone.

For example, we establish a low buying average, over many buys, in something we consider to hold value.

Each individual establishes their own, meaning…

…it’s each person’s own low buying average.

It decides the multiple.

It’s the centre-half. The libero. It creates the play. It’s unique to a person. No AI access. The whole game has been taken away from AI. It remains a human game. It’s not what the masses are doing. It’s contrarian. It’s going to make money.

Volatility is a constant.

Disruption is a constant.

Fear is a constant.

Greed is a constant.

Mass-behaviour is a constant.

Pigs getting slaughtered is a constant.

We play it by constants.

We’ve even started using unique mass-logic defying indicators, that only we have defined, that no one else knows about or can dream of, and we’re using them successfully, with no access to AI.

We’re functioning from within a matrix where we control the game, AI doesn’t.

Beauty is, outside of our protective matrix, we have access to all of AI’s capabilities, should we choose to use them.

Not yet though. Specifically after the 160+ girls murder rumoured to be caused by intel provided by AI, correct me if I’m wrong. AI as it currently is doesn’t seem ready for seamless implementation. All those foolishly believing so at this moment are the pigs referred to above. Pigs get what? Slaughtered. I didn’t say this first. It’s a common market saying. Markets are a – constant. We trust constants.

There will be many more blow-ups before seamlessness is achieved.

Think of banking systems causing and compounding massive errors because of blind reliability on AI.

This of AI suggested war strategy backfiring because of lack of understanding of human psyche.

Think of investment strategy imploding, left with eyes wide shut to AI, owing to lack of proper understating of human behaviour and its unpredictability. Anyways, on the plus side…

…think of any level of positive upheaval that AI will cause.

Think maximum.

Thought?

Since we play it by constants, we’ll continue to thrive, maximum disruption and beyond.

Such is the power of constants, that we successfully harness.

Pigs

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A structural component of markets…

…are its hands.

There are weak ones.

Then, other hands are strong.

Weak hands can be snatched from…

…easily.

They panic fast, and throw their holding during mild turmoil, …

… they are afraid, …

…not possessing holding-power, because they haven’t created the circumstances, and have prematurely jumped into a market.

Buying without margin of safety is one such premature jump.

Without fundamental, technical and / or general knowledge are others.

They are the mythical ‘pigs’ that get ‘slaughtered’.

Evert cycle produces new ones.

The ‘pig’ of one cycle eventually goes on to become a strong hand of another future cycle.

Strong hands know.

They study fundamentals, or technicals, or are generally savvy from experience, having developed market intuition. Strong hands have come prepared, perhaps, with a combination of all these traits.

They are liquid.

The’ll buy through the fall, piece by piece.

You can’t throw them off, …

…because they have holding-power.

It didn’t come for free, for once upon a time, they too were ‘pigs’ that got slaughtered, but they survived to live another day, learn, and rebuild.

As we grow in market experience, our hands tend to get stronger.

Some ‘pigs’ don’t make it to the next market.

Their slaughter moment might come late, paralyzing them financially, with no time, or energy, or both, to recover.

Some just give up on markets after an early slaughter experience.

We need to make many mistakes, early in the game, by sheer doing, learning, and not repeating, these. Early on, the numbers that we play with, are generally small. That’s when we need to get fatal errors out of the way.

As our numbers grow, and as our hands become strong, we then position ourselves…

…to thrive in the markets.

Any market.

Resisting the Devil’s Lure

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The lure is tremendous. 

It’s flashy. 

It’s in the limelight. 

It’s happening. 

It wants to take you for a ride. 

It’s called Crypto.

There’s talk about “it’s the internet of the future”. There’s talk about how there’ll be no governments and how people will rule over their own currency. Enough to sweep one away. 

However, cryptos go against the grain of everything a steady long-term investor stands for. 

Origin is unknown. 

Banks won’t store. 

Governments rejecting.

Legit?

Do you know the answer?

Main exchange went bust in 2014. Got hacked. 

Terrorist and launderers have found in them a smooth haven. 

How is one to understand Blockchain?

X number of people agreeing that the sky is purple – does that make the sky purple?

What about all the cousins?

There are many cryptos. 

There’s one springing up every few weeks.

Which ones are going to be around in 10 or maybe 20 years?

Yes, long-term investors think …

… long-term. 

Cryptos are making people taste fast bucks. 

Fast bucks made in a few days can spell disaster…

…because this is a trajectory that makes one want to bet the farm at the peak. 

Crypto players are being set up for something big. 

The amount of ammunition prevailing is enough to bludgeon lots. 

Pigs will get slaughtered. Always happens. Very few people in the world know how to trade. Let alone knowing how to trade, very few can even define what a trade is. 

Cryptos are a trade. Period.

That too, if one wants to trade cryptos.

Why wouldn’t one want to trade cryptos?

For starters, very high beta. Not many traders are comfortable with high betas. 

Stepping into the crypto world means stepping out of one’s area of expertise initially. 

Why would one want to step out of one’s zone? Circle of competence means a lot to successful traders. 

Diversification?

Have crypto on your plate, and the sheer hullabaloo will disturb your other trading. The one you’ve taken so long to build up. Do you want that?

No. I don’t. I’m happy in my circle of competence.

I don’t want the disturbance. 

I don’t want the extremely high betas. 

I don’t want to get slaughtered. 

I want origin. 

I want legit. 

I don’t want bust exchanges. 

I don’t want to make my computer a target. 

I don’t want to be doing what terrorists and launderers are doing.

I don’t buy the mining story. 

If the sky is blue, I want to have the freedom to call it blue, even if a billion people are calling it purple.

My common sense says no. 

Therefore, my exposure to cryptos is nil. 

I resist the devil’s lure.

What’s that other fellow doing?

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The human being is nosy.

Maybe curious is a better word.

Problem is, this one characteristic is enough to make one fail in the market.

Curiousity is a good thing. At the right time and in the right area, yes.

Curiousity is a bad thing at the wrong time and in the wrong area.

However, that’s how we are wired. We like to know what that other fellow is doing, the one who is successful. We want to do the same thing. We want to ape the success. Whether we know anything about that other fellow’s field or not becomes secondary.

That’s when the walls begin to crumble.

Know your field.

Develop it.

Be curious in your field.

Succeed in your field.

If you don’t, after trying repeatedly, change your field.

Find a field that you’re successful in.

If one successful field doesn’t fulfill you, develop a second field.

However, just because your best friend hit the jackpot in his field, don’t move over to his field and expect to hit the jackpot too.

Unfortunately, we show that kind of behaviour again, and again and again.

That’s human nature.

A prime example comes from the stock market.

At the end of a boom, the last ones holding the hot potatoes (stocks that have gone up too much) are the “pigs” (retail traders and investors who buy at exorbitant prices after getting lured in by the successes of the earlier parts of the boom), who then get slaughtered. This is common stock-market jargon, by the way. It has gotten so streamlined, because it has happened again, and again and again.

If you’re doing stocks, do stocks properly. Make stocks your life’s mission. Or, don’t do stocks. Period. There’s no in-between to being successful. Success in stocks, like success in any other field, demands your full attention. Don’t do stocks just because the other fellow made a killing in stocks.

Memory is weak.

Give the bust a few years, and a whole new set of pigs launch themselves at the fag end of the next boom.

Right.

Slaughter.

You’re not a pig.

Know your field. Stick to it. Succeed in it. Period.