Tag Archives: #Transparency

Obviousness

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Knowledge streams…

…at unprecedented speed.

You want it?

You got it.

Lag is negligible.

Everyone has access.

Conclusion? Fazit? Nichor? Bilan?

What seems obvious is likely a trap.

Fundamentals can be fudged, to an extent. A closer look at gaps between fundamentals vs actuals unveils those who fudge. Actuals on the ground will need to match fundamentals, somewhere. For example, if there’s no debt on the balance-sheet, there will well be a surplus which the company in question accumulates, and there will be a path on which this surplus flows. This path should be visible in the annual report. If there’s no surplus, company will show visible signs of stagnation. If something officially declared by a company doesn’t match (visible) actuals, the fudging window opens. We steer clear of companies with even a fudging crack open.

Technicals can be used to set entry and exit traps.

By professionals

For the masses.

Masses act at levels.

Generally, price hovers around an obvious level till the majority has acted. Then, generally, price goes against. When crowds cut entries, institutions enter on their exits. This strategy paves the way for relatively easy and heavy entries.

Moral of the story for us?

We wait for an obvious level.

We don’t act. Yet. However, we are on alert.

We envision an aftermath play in our minds.

Entry pivots are coming quick, nowadays. There’s hardly any time to act, especially if one has an otherwise busy schedule.

Therefore…

…we only deal in GTTs. Period.

Thus we feed in our GTTs, as per mentally outlined situation, and back up these with funding, if entry-trigger is less than 5.2% away. All this we do in a cool moment, after market hours, away from the noise, when we can think clearly.

And, most importantly, …

…we do it away from the obviousness.

2050?

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Yes.

Why?

Why what?

Why 2050?

Growth trajectory.

Whose?

India’s.

What about it?

Spurts with bottlenecks. Not linear.

So?

Will take 2050 till fruition.

Meaning, for you?

Quest for multibagger accumulation will be successfully achieved.

By 2050?

Yeah.

Anything else?

My own trajectory.

Will you be around?

Not relevant.

Why?

I’ll leave the assets as my legacy.

To whom?

Family. Country. Charity.

Striving and then leaving it?

Doesn’t cause me any reaction.

Why?

It’s cost-free.

Meaning?

My principal is not invested. Pulled it out in profit. What remains in the markets is cost-free. I live and enjoy my life on my income, simultaneously creating a cost-free legacy. The cost-free-ness tricks my mind into an eternal hold. I stop jumping. Vicissitudes of price path have no meaning for me once something has become cost-free.

And why stop in 2050?

Growth culmination. India enters first-world territory. It becomes difficult to create multiples fast. Life is far more efficient, and so is price, then. Loopholes are filled in by artificial intelligence before an EoD chap like me can react. Info-flow is so fast and transparent, that everybody knows. Everyone is smart because they use the appropriate tools. Since all money is smart, there’s no edge anymore. But that’s 2050. Today, oh, there are edges. Inefficiency lasting longer than EoD. Sometimes lasting months. Loopholes. Pattern related. Operator related. Price related. AI is not fully there yet. Most market players are not smart, I think the official statistic reads 88%. Almost all tools look at the wrong stuff. By the time one reacts to indicators, which are a function of price, most of the edge is gone. Information-flow is not fast enough, and if you can read it in the numbers or the chart before it happens, the edge is huge. And, forget about transparency. It’s just not there. We’re sitting of big edges currently.

So, 2050, stop, and then what?

No idea. Let’s go with the flow. Right now the flow is leading up to 2050.

And what if there are world-shattering events before that?

We buy. We are almost always highly liquid. When we’re not, we start creating liquidity. We are never illiquid. 2050 is just a number. We have numbers to go on, like lamp-posts. It’s another lamp-post, like 1984, or Y2k, or what have you.

Do you want to be the person remembered for 2050?

That’s not even a question for me. I’m flowing with 2050 because that works for me. I don’t care about the rest. If you wish to think with that mindset, that’s on you.

Why rude?

Nothing rude or not rude about it. 2050 is part of my framework. Nothing more, nothing less.

I see.

Sometimes, you don’t like it

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Sure.

Like now.

Bloodbath in small-caps.

Alleged suicide.

NPAs.

Witch-hunt.

Did you choose Equity as an area of expertise?

Ok, then deal with it.

First up, India’s History is laden with scams.

We are where we are despite these.

Secondly, there’s growth. In other parts of the world, there is not much growth.

India is an emotionally volatile nation.

So are its markets.

Since this is where we act, let’s get used to things.

If you’ve been following the small entry quantum strategy, well, then you’ve got ammunition…

…at a time, when the value of this ammunition is immense…

…because lots of stuff has started to go for a song.

You do feel the pinch though…

… because whatever’s already in, is bleeding.

You don’t like it.

It’s normal.

Going in at a time like this, you will feel pathetic.

However, for your money, you are getting quality at cheap multiples. This will translate into immense long term wealth. Quality at cheap multiples multiplies fast.

Here are a few reasons you should feel ok about going in.

The small entry quantum strategy has rendered you liquid…

…after sorting out your basic family life, income-planning and what have you.

You are going in with money you don’t require for a longish time.

Muster up the courage.

Get over your pinch.

Engage.

Buy quality.

Debt-free-ness.

Shareholder-friendliness.

Generated free cashflow.

Transparency.

Diligent managements.

Product-profile that’s going to be around.

Less dependency on water.

Versatility.

Adaptibility.

Make your own list.

Use the stuff above.

Wishing you lucrative investing with no tears and with lots of smiles.