Signposts

Noise, …

… currently, …

… is deafening.

Posturing, …

… rebuttal, …

… a coup nearby, …

… printing, …

… and what have you, …

… have now become par for the course.

What are the signposts we follow, amidst this chaos?

First up, let’s not be afraid of chaos. Big returns are made exactly there.

We are going to follow high-growth, …

… and specifically, value offered in a high-growth market. Ya, we’ll never get away from margin of safety. It keeps coming back, in one form or another, whether one is investing, or even trading. We use it to get a little better value while entering, facilitated by Technicals. We understand that it’s in volatile times and markets that growth offers value, very temporarily.

Needless to say, basic Fundamentals need to be intact, on the path that we tread.

The governments, and managements we invest in need to show integrity, and develop trust.

We remind ourselves, that high growth is a non-linear entity, and thus we need to stay invested.

We achieve this by keeping our Cost-Free-Ness in the market, like, forever.

We toil to create more and more Cost-Free-Ness.

What this exactly is has been explained ad nauseam in this space, at many earlier instances.

Creation of Cost-Free-Ness means that our principal goes to work repeatedly. Its mini-units are like soldiers that go into battle, bring back winnings, and then they rest, to be deployed another day. If some deployed principal is losing, we wait for it to win. If losses mount, we always have the option to bail it out, or to switch its battle.

The beauty about Cost-Free-Ness is, that since it remains in the field, like, forever, there then is no cap on its upside, in a high-growth market.

Wishing you happy and lucrative wealth-creation!

🙂

Beta

We’re not afraid…

…of beta.

In fact, we want beta to be there.

And, we want it to be big.

Beta is part of wealth-generation through cost-free-ness.

Why…

…are we not afraid of beta?

When we make an underlying cost-free, there are two parameters that are of prime importance, in the game that we are playing.

First up, speed of cost-free-ness.

How much time has it take us to reach the desired stage?

Too much time?

Work at the strategy.

Short time?

Great.

With large betas, we take lesser time to reach cost-free-ness.

Cost-free-ness is a state of mind.

Also, it is a function of parameters prevailing.

As a result of internal synthesis, we know in our mind when it’s time for cost-free-ness creation.

Once cost-free-ness is created, we move on to the next play with the same objective.

Next up, we have quantum of cost-free-ness created, per capita time.

Higher the quantum, in lesser time, why, that’s optimal.

Again big beta.

Without big beta, there’s not much chance of achieving large quantum in less time.

How do we exploit big beta to attain objective?

Get in on huge margin of safety. Get principal out when exuberance prevails. Scrips being played are those of which you are convinced. Meaning, that you are mentally in sync with very long-term holds of cost-free-ness created in these scrips.

Also…

…as a general game-enhancing practice…

…get in and out with multi-day or multi-month triggers. Don’t look at the markets while they’re on. Take emotion out of play. Nil market forces out of your equation.

Here one sees, how, amongst other factors, a big beta allows one to generate long-term wealth through cost-free-ness while…

…acting on one’s own terms.

Normal

Hey…

… how’ve you been?

Just hit my normal, so, am feeling good about it.

LifeVector took a multi-SD shock some months back, and everything that makes my normal went out of whack.

Life today is about finding one’s normal amidst constant and new shocks.

Didn’t know I had it in me, to take a multi.

Found out while it happened and in the aftermath.

It’s good news for one’s environment, since everyone remains protected, if one is confident about navigating through multis.

So, what makes up my normal?

Firstly, I don’t fit.

So I construct my own fit.

Takes two and a half decades.

My fit has many-dimensional functionality, tailor made, to extract fullness from life.

In no defining order, there are some income-creating avenues.

Wealth-creating ones.

Recreation.

Giving.

Movement.

Study.

Wellness.

Spirit.

Family.

Exploration.

Responsibility.

Evolution.

Systems.

Auto-pilot.

Am not necessarily passing every avenue. There’s failure too.

I do know one big thing, though, from the recent shock.

It’s an invaluable lesson.

Don’t mind sharing it with you.

Am unhappy when away from my normal.

Further away, more the unhappiness.

Happiest when normal is hit.

Happiness-peak continues as normal remains intact.

Hmmmm.

Isn’t that a big learning?

Hope it helps you too!

🙂

Process

In the markets…

… actions are decisions.

No decision taken means no action.

Well, no action is also an action.

Ok.

However…

… eventually …

… to generate wealth …

… or income …

… we are confronted with decisions.

I’m not afraid to act, upon seeing a confluence of supportive indications.

If I were afraid to act, well, I could have just sheer chosen another line, but would have been confronted with the same deficiency, there too.

Acting upon enhanced win probability should do away with any fear.

However, there’s always that thing before trigger-press.

What if I’m wrong?

Let’s not be afraid of being wrong.

We’ll take our stop and then we’re done with this action, now looking at implementing another action.

Our ability to take the decision for this other action, and for all future actions should remain intact.

How do we ensure that?

When we’re wrong, let’s be wrong small.

Then let’s move on to whatever new action is coming our way.

If we let ourselves be wrong big, that, my friends, is crippling.

Let’s not cripple ourselves.

Crippling does away with the capability to act further.

Now, decisions are a fry cry.

The day becomes heavy.

Nights …

… well …

… sleepless.

That’s not going to happen to us.

Why?

As traders, will do everything in our capability to stop a big loss from happening.

How?

Losses are small in the beginning.

Let’s define their limit.

If you want to take it trade by trade, fine. Each trade has its own dynamics. However, small nature of stop remains common. Define what is small for you.

How?

My formula – anything that stops the day from becoming heavy and the night from becoming sleepless. For me, that’s small. You decide your formula. Whatever works for you, take it.

This is called process.

We follow process.

We don’t focus on profit and loss.

We focus on process.

We want to get our process correct, day in, day out, forever.

Losses will follow. They will be taken small.

Profits will follow. We will allow these to become big. Though that is a difficult one, we will need to learn to, because without this one thing working for us, we won’t be long-term profitable.

Here’s a formula regarding letting profits run.

After a profit has touched 3 x your stop, allow 50% breathing space. If this is squeezed completely, exit with small profit. If underlying inches higher, inch your stop upwards, always allowing for breathing space. At 4 x you can allow 40% breathing space, at 5x 30%. Etc. Make your own formula that allows profits to burgeon.

Wishing you lucrative trading and ample wealth creation!

🙂

Investors whine, and traders cry, when they try the other’s Art

In a breakaway bull market,…

…one starts to find faults with Trading in general…

since, to make money, one just needs to sit, rather than actively trade. 

Almost everyone is happy with their investing,…

…in a breakaway bull market. 

What kind of factors does one start pointing fingers at?

Timing.

One almost always gets this wrong, specifically with regard to futures and options, which are time-bound.

Not having enough on the table…,

…yeah, yeah, heard that one before. 

While trading, one doesn’t bet the farm. 

When one’s trades run, one makes a bit,…

…which is not, by far, as much as any odd investment portfolio would be appreciating.

Second-guessing.

While investing, one is focused in one direction. 

While trading, one looks at both directions, to initiate trades, and the market-neutral trade is another trade in a category of its own. 

Hence, one is always second-guessing the market, and when one is off, it results in opportunity loss and brokerage generation. 

Time consumed.

Trading consumes almost all of one’s time. 

When markets are closed, one’s mind is not detached. 

It’s exhausting. 

Has many side-effects too. 

One doesn’t have time for many other things, because of trading. 

Whatever one does try to participate in, consists of half-baked efforts, because essentially, one’s mind is on the market simultaneously. 

Leads to a loss in quality of life.

Now, let’s reverse the situation. 

When markets slide downwards, the trader feels light. 

He or she cuts longs and initiates shorts.

It’s a superior feeling versus the investor, who is stuck with large holdings on the table. 

Feel-good factor is huge, and quality of life gets enhanced.

Good traders don’t have a liquidity problem. 

Also, they can shut operations and switch off from the market any time, if they are able to do so, in practice. 

Tappable markets are many for the trader. 

Trading leads to income generation. 

Investing leads to wealth creation.

What do you want from your life?

Both – is a valid answer, but confuses. 

If one wants to dabble in trading, but is basically an investor, one can think about initiating positional trades, which have a investing-like feel, and one’s time is less bound to the market.

If one wants to dabble in investing as a trader, hmm, this one will be markedly tougher, I think.

Don’t know what to say here, since I’m an investor who dabbles in trading…

…, but intuitively, I feel, that this one would take a lot of effort.

Happy Ninth Birthday, Magic Bull!

Hey,
 
Just turned nine!
 
🙂
 
We’ve seen stuff…
 
…in these nine years.
 
What is our endeavour?
 
We’re in the business of creating wealth.
 
What is wealth?
 
It is something that multiplies over a period of time, …
 
…, perhaps over a long period of time.
 
Wealth affords one things – comfort, medicare, education, luxury, and what have you. So does surplus income, but wealth has the capacity to do this whilst keeping its principle value intact, taking care of our need, and still retaining a large surplus.
 
On the grass-root level, wealth is an idea.
 
Look at it as a multiplication matrix.
 
When we’re looking at money through the spectacles of this multiplication matrix, we’re looking to create wealth.
 
When we’re looking at money without using such spectacle framework, well, then we’re looking at sheer liquidity, income, surplus income / funds etc.
 
In this form, funds are spent, or put into an instrument which returns less than inflation. Funds are burnt over time, and over the long-term, their buying power takes a huge hit.
 
Wealth, on the other hand, returns way beyond inflation. Over the very long-term, returns can even be triple-digit per annum (not using the word “compounded” yet). Double-digit returns, per annum compounded (ya, using it now), are normal. 26% per annum compounded gives a 1000%+ return over 10 years (triple-digit per year)!
 
Wealth kills inflation, and then some, actually, and then lots!
 
The assimilation of wealth doesn’t necessarily follow a linear mathematics.
 
It is better to not look at this mathematics on a day to day basis.
 
Wealth is best created out of sight, out of mind.
 
Why?
 
During the journey to wealth, one needs conviction in one’s rock-solid research.
 
Observing day to day trajectory deviation makes one lose such conviction.
 
Worst-case scenario can be to interrupt the wealth-creation process, or to stop it altogether.
 
One encounters many colleagues on the road towards wealth-creation.
 
Sure, everyone wants in.
 
Who ends up creating wealth?
 
In other words, what’s the wealth-creation mind-set?
 
Our basics have been put in place, by us, laboriously, in the beginning.
 
As in, we have a basic income going. Our needs for the next couple of years are taken care of.
 
We’ve been pickling any incoming surplus away.
 
We don’t need to draw on it for a while, for reasons explained above.
 
Our research is rock-solid.
 
Our small entry quantum strategy has been fine-tuned thoroughly.
 
However, we’ll keep at it, tuning further as per requirement.
 
We believe in ourselves, our research and our strategy.
 
WE are going to end up creating wealth.
 
Holding on to wealth and seeing it through to its logical conclusion will be the next challange.
 
Great year ahead, Magic Bull!
 
🙂 🙂

Going for the Multiple 

Relax. 

We’re not going for the jugular. 

Or are we? 

The jugular has the most copious flow. 

Maybe we are then… 

… going for the jugular. 

However, there’s no stabbing happening. 

We do everything from the inside of our comfort-zone.

We act with harmony. 

Balance. 

Focus. 

Intelligence. 

Common-sense. 

We try and be non-violent about it. 

What are we doing? 

We’re looking to create wealth. 

What makes us look? 

Security. Our basic income secures us. 

Boredom. Adding to our basic income has become boring. 

Overflow. As basic income starts to overflow, it needs a long-term avenue in which it doesn’t demand our constant attention. 

Fine. 

What’s the best way… 

… to go about it?

Where there’s honey, there are bees. 

Finance-people find you. You have money. They have investments. For finance-people, you are bread and butter. 

So, you sit. 

You wait. 

You let them come. 

You’ve got discriminatory-ability. 

You sift. 99% of what comes goes into the bin. 

You like 1%. 

You invest in that 1%.

How much? 

Whatever you pre-define as your per-annum outflow into wealth-creation. 

Only that much. 

What then? 

What’s the bottom-line? 

What’s your holding strategy? 

Nothing. 

You sit. 

The biggest money is made…

…while sitting.”

You’re not even looking at your long-term investment more than once a month. 

You’re not interested in daily quotes.

The daily quote can say zero. You don’t care. You know that you are in the process of creating wealth, and that it’s going to take long, and within that period you don’t care if the world thinks your holding is zero, because you know it isn’t. 

Why? 

Due-diligence. 

Ability to think differently. 

Ability to see wealth in its nascent stage, and to recognize it. 

You have these things. 

They didn’t come for free. 

You took some solid hits to earn them. 

Yeah, you have what it takes, and that’s why… 

… you’re going for the multiple. 

Wealth vs Income – the What-When-Why? 

Income… 

… comes into your account… 

… on a regular basis. 

You spend a good part of it to keep your ball rolling. 

If you save even a fraction, well you’re good, because this ain’t really an age of savers. 

Saved income goes into an asset. 

The asset either generates more income…  

… or, it generates wealth. 

What is wealth?

Wealth is not income. It doesn’t come into your current account regularly. 

Wealth accrues. 

Wealth compounds.

Wealth multiplies. 

Wealth grows in a skewed fashion, like an exponential curve.

You don’t look at your wealth-generating asset everyday. Once a month is more than enough. 

Wealth funds big events. 

Wealth likes time, to grow. 

Wealth separates you from those who are hungry. Hunger is not limited to food. 

Have you understood the nature of wealth?

What do you strive for, income or wealth?

That’s a huge question.

I’ve answered it for myself.

It’s taken 12+ years to find the answer.

I’ll tell you.

I now strive to create wealth.

Why?

Because income has become just a number to my mind.

Yes, that’s the answer for me.

Learning to define the quest for income or wealth requires the appropriate state of mind.

When income becomes just a number to your mind, addition to it doesn’t satisfy you anymore.

Yeah, the kick is missing…

…the thrill-factor…you know what I’m talking about. 

In an effort to rekindle this missing element, you then look to create wealth.

There’s enough additive securing you. 

You start going for the multiple. 

🙂

Nath on Equity – make that a hundred

Long-term equity is 81). brought low.

The idea is to, if required, 82). sell it high.

Otherwise, 83). it is sold when you no longer believe in the stock concerned, for strong fundamental reasons. Or, it is sold when something more interesting comes along, and your magic number is capped. Then you sell the stock you’re least interested in and replace it with the new one.

84). Attitudes of managements can change with changing CEOs. Does a new management still hold your ideology-line?

Is the annual report flashy, wasteful, rhetorical and more of an eyewash? Or, 85). is it to the point with no BS? Same scrutiny is required for company website.

Your winners 86). try to entice you to sell them and book profits. Don’t sell them without an overwhelming reason.

Your mind will 87). try and play tricks on you to hold on to a now-turned-loser that is not giving you a single good reason to hold anymore.

If you’re not able to overcome your mind on 87)., 88). at least don’t average-down to add more of the loser to your folio.

89). High-rating bonds give negative returns in most countries, adjusted for inflation.

The same 90). goes for fixed deposits.

Take the parallel economy out of 91). real estate, and long-term returns are inferior to equity, adjusted for inflation.

92). Gold’s got storage and theft issues.

Apart from that, 93). it’s yielded 1% compounded since inception, adjusted for inflation.

Storage with equity is 94). electronic, time-tested-safe and hassle-free.

Equity’s something for you 95). with little paperwork, and, if you so wish it, no middlemen. In other words, there’s minimal nag-value.

Brokerage and taxes added together 96). make for a small and bearable procurement fees. Procurement is far more highly priced in other asset-classes.

One can delve into the nervous system of a publicly traded company. Equity is 97). transparent, with maximal company-data required to be online.

As a retail player in equity, 98). you are at a considerable advantage to institutions, who are not allowed to trade many, many stocks because of size discrepancies.

All you require to play equity is 99). an internet connection and a trinity account with a financial institution.

If you’re looking to create wealth, 100). there’s no avenue like long-term equity!

🙂