Tag Archives: #ZeroDebt

Basics Baby

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In the…

…ongoing…

…and incoming…

…frenzy…

…there’s only one go-to strategy…

…for me.

Basics…

…always.

During CoViD, during which everything was supposed to go bankrupt, one stuck to the ‘Basics, Always’ approach, and the rest became History.

This, today, has the potential to become a CoViD like crash.

First up, there’s been mass AI hypnosis. Everyone and their Aunties are in the loop and are talking AI. No one cares anymore about companies with great fundamentals and a penchant cum track record for metamorphosis. It’s ok. We do, since that’s what counts for a steady, long-term return in the market. We are not greedy. We wish to put away our money safely, not let inflation eat at it, and we would like it to grow over the next twenty to thirty odd years. We’re balanced. We’re basic. We’re simple. We’re the opposite of complicated and sophisticated.

And now, there’s all out war. Provoked. Just to bury Epstein consequences? All pipelines choked. Gold-nugget question being asked in this moment is…

…how should one act?

Should one get swept into the AI madness and buy into abysmally high PE multiples? Infinite PE multiples? Should one buy international stocks? Gold? Bitcoin? Silver? Sit in cash? WHAT?

Answer in such scenarios is SIMPLE, always.

Basics. Baby.

Basics, always.

Basics to the rescue.

What are your basics? Go back to them.

I’ll tell you my basics. I’ve gone back to them since I started buying, February 6th onwards. And I shall remain with them, till I’ve finished buying, or till I’m fully invested, whichever comes first.

Shareholder-friendly managements.

Companies with clean balance sheets.

Companies with zero or quasi-zero long-term debt.

Free cashflow to market cap upwards of 2% for large- and mid-caps, and upwards of 1% for small-caps.

Companies with multi-decade penchants and track-records for / of successful metamorphosis and navigation through disruption.

Margin of safety. Each high-conviction buy lowers average. Mathematics to support buying and selling. A low average has the capacity to quickly give a multiple in better times, from where then one’s principal can be skimmed off to fight another battle, and the profit stays in the market for eternity, on the back of the mathematics of compounding.

These are my basics. Shared with you, with pleasure, to inspire you to find yourself in the chaos. Use these till you find your own. You can pay it forward. Leads to a better world.

One doesn’t need more. Just one’s basics. Basics that are superimposable on the entire market, and when something conforms, there’s action. Like now, for me.

Please go back to your basics at a time like this. That’s why you have developed them. Your happy, go to place. Market success is more about a high-conviction frame of mind with holding power.

The rest, rest assured, will be History. Go for it.

🙂

Yawn

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Mass hypnosis…

…sweeps psychology…

…into a space where common sense…

…goes out of the window.

Such is the power of a pseudo ideology vis-à-vis a public that is now constantly in fight or flight mode.

Since CoViD.

Vaccinations.

Constant pursuit of growth at any cost.

Next story.

Next story.

Next story.

Let’s spin them a yarn.

Not any yarn.

A yarn that looks very realistic. Cut to ten years ahead, and the yarn probably alters current reality to a yet uncertain level. However…

…it’s not true NOW, in the shape it’s being spun and sold.

Masses are lapping it up. No need for implementation proof, no need for some years of field testing, perhaps at least five, antibiotics take ten in the actual world, no need for anything, no discounting for blunders, just spin it and we’ll lap it up. Ok.

Please do so. We, on the other hand, shall take huge advantage of your mass gullibility, masses. That’s why we remain liquid, for exactly these mass hypnoses.

Yes, we are buyers for Indian IT.

We’ll be buying till the bottom and slightly beyond.

We are fearless. Over more than two decades, we have created conditions for ourselves, mentally, in our environments, financially, which have thrown fear out of the equation.

Our strategy is one that benefits from ridiculous crowd behaviour. Again and again, we’ve gone against crowds, and emerged with multiples, financially free to take our principals out and deploy these into the next mania, panic, or whatever have you.

And so shall it be this time.

We are liquid enough to keep buying Indian IT, with small entry quanta, right to the mid single digit PE levels. Yes, we have that conviction.

Why?

First up, track record. 40 years of successful navigation through disruption. This disruption is different you say? Replace billable hours with a 1000 times more outcomes coupled with handholding, and revenue streams make billable hours look like dust particles. This one para just breaks the back of the story being sold. Do I think it’s possible? Yes. ‘Necessity is the mother of invention’, and the companies we buy have track records to prove that they are capable of emerging in the avatar that is required.

Then, poise. Zero or quasi zero long term debt. Massive free cash-flow per annum on the balance sheets, i.e., the conditions and means to R&D one’s way through. And, why is the public discounting the last five years that have been laden with exactly such R&D? Why is the public further discounting the level-headed input of Indian IT into AI? Owned billions put in with equilibrium. Indian approach. Borrowed trillions thrown in without looking left and right. Western approach. BIG DIFFERENCE.

Then there’s Buffettology. Tried and tested. Down the ages. Value. Deep discounts. Quality. BUY. HOLD. Beats most growth pursuits without having to look. Time and effort requiring growth pursuits are another story, and those pursuing them also become slaves, as in they don’t own their time. WE DO. WE OWN OUR TIME. HUGE WIN.

We are independent, and this current panic shall enhance our level of independence financially in the medium term, which is when we will pull out our current principals going in now, leaving part of our multiples in the market for further compounding.

Pulled out principals will then be deployed into the next panic.

One can already feel it brewing.

No Pharma required anymore. AI and implants will cure everything.

No Auto sector required anymore, it’s merged with the AI sector, or, better still, Auto is now AI. Forget Auto. Invest in AI. You automatically get Auto. Aviation. Tourism. Banking. Everything.

Etc.

New bottles. One after another.

Same old wine.

This time is always different. Ok, keep it rolling.

We’ll just keep doing our common sense thing each time, which is deploying, making a multiple, and then pulling our principal out.

And repeat.

Shame, Shame, West

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The next scam is here.

Please don’t get fooled.

Unfortunately, many already are.

You see, the storyline is so, so believable.

However, only on the surface. A few scratches, and the story falls apart.

There is something about human intelligence. Behaviour. Instinct. Decision making prowess. Mental synthesis.

Everything described here, …

… AI is not.

So, why give it that status?

What’s the agenda?

Ohhh, there’s a very solid agenda, and since one can’t fool all the people all the time, we see through the bullsh**.

First up, Western IT is hugely, hugely over-invested. Neck deep. Rational minds in other parts of the world are not. The occident needs ratification and burden-sharing. Orient is not biting. So make it bite. Unleash a scam. Perhaps it was a sop allowed through in the recent trade deal, since some of the spin doctors being utilized are actually Indian.

Secondly, rendered useless? Give us a break. Spun yarns don’t render useless quality, zero-debt, free cash-flow rich, lean, diligent companies. On the contrary, agility and versatility allows such companies to adapt very fast, particularly owing to huge spending power and zero obligations. Indian IT is adapting, FAST, and whatever artificial crashes are being caused owing to the foolishness of pigs, are buying opportunities. PERIOD.

Thirdly, what kind of a track record do the likes of current disruptors have? Like, four years. In other words, NOTHING. Current disruptors have no experience, themselves, in emerging successfully from disruptions. Indian IT has been navigating, SUCCESSFULLY, through all disruptions since the ‘80s. So, like, Western AI, garner a track record first, then talk. Also, an announcement alone, that you are potentially capable of doing XYZ, is not going to cut it.

Please remember, the problem with AI is, everything functions supremely till it doesn’t. That’s the point where the value of human capital is realized, to navigate mankind successfully through and out of the dead end. A dead end in critical ventures is not acceptable. Writing Indian IT off for dead is wishful thinking and reeks of a jealous to the hilt society that fumes with envy at the cash-richness, the zero-indebtedness, the ability to adapt at amazing speeds, the start-up laden clean balance-sheets etc. etc. etc. of Indian IT. Shame, shame, West.

Opportunity

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Knock knock!

Who’s there?

Oppo.

Oppo who?

Oppo – rrrr – tunity, which don’t knock often (enough).

Yes, huge opportunity is knocking.

Global talent will stay indoors, to a large extent, from now onwards, come this September 21st, i.e. today onwards.

Brain gain time for us.

India is going to boom. Forget about tomorrow, next week, next month, but come medium term, and, going on to the long term, India will shine.

Sure, tomorrow, Indian IT will probably be down. Who’s in it for just tomorrow? One doesn’t get one’s house valued every day, week or year. One might do it when one is contemplating a sale, maybe after twenty years of owning it. Same goes for very long-term held compounders. Like Indian IT.

So, down? Maybe. Out? NO!!! Drag other markets? A bit. Effect to continue? Very short-term.

Beautiful thing is, Indian and possibly other corporates have been working on their plan Bs, and perhaps their plan Cs, and have, slowly but surely, been implementing these.

Also, government is boldly stepping up and refusing to get bullied. Watch out for the measures to be announced that will further boost the economy, to counter this ‘shock’. Thing is, where other nations have started thinking and acting short-term only, India has started to play a longer-term game. One can call it a meta-game.

Bottom-line.?

Time to answer the door-bell, open the door, and let the knockers in.

In my opinion, it’s safe to put one’s money on the line here.

Should Indian IT fall, large quantities of domestic funds will be lapping it up. Smart money will definitely be buying into offered margin of safety.

Why?

Fundamentals.

Clean balance sheets.

Free cashflow.

ZERO DEBT.

High RoE.

Large number of diligently purchased start-ups owned.

AI incorporation and development.

Steady growth.

Technical margin of safety being offered, possibly, tomorrow onwards.

And now, brain gain.

These are some of the big pluses that Indian IT offers.

So, one can easily and calmly go out there, and, with a cool head, put one’s hard-earned money into any margin of safety exhibited by these potential compounders with amazing track records, with a clear-cut goal of generating long-term wealth.

Wishing you happy and lucrative investing!

🙂

Nature of the Beast

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Stocks…

…crash.

It’s the nature of the beast.

Stocks also multiply.

For stocks to multiply, one needs to do something.

What is that something?

One needs to buy stocks when they crash.

Let me give you an example. 

Let’s assume markets are on a high, and there’s euphoria.

Excel Propionics is cruising at a 1000.

The prevailing euphoria seeps into your brain, and you buy Propionics at a 1000.

For Propionics to multiply 10 times in your lifetime, it will now need to reach 10,000.

Likely? Wait.

Cut to now.

Stocks are crashing. 

The same stock, Excel Propionics, now crawls at 450.

You have studied it. 

It’s debt-free.

Positive cash-flow.

Ratios are good.

Numbers are double-digit.

Leverage is low.

Management is shareholder-friendly. 

You start buying at 450. 

By the time the crash is through, you have bought many times, and your buying average is 333.

For Propionics to multiply 10 times in your lifetime, it will now need to rise to 3330.

Which event is more likely to happen?

Just answer intuitively.

Of course, the second scenario is more likely to play out than the first one. In the second scenario, Propionics will need to peak 3 times lower.

Simple?

No!

Try buying in a crash.

You are shaken up. 

There’s so much pessimism going around.

Rumours, stories, whatsapps, opinions. The whole world has become an authority on where this market is going to go, and you are dying from inside.

What’s killing you?

The hiding that your existing portfolio is taking, that’s what’s killing you.

Are you liquid?

No?

Very bad. 

Why aren’t you liquid?

Create this circumstance for yourself.

Be liquid.

Optimally, be liquid for life. 

Then, you will look forward to a crash, because that’s when you will use your liquidity copiously, to buy quality stocks, or to improve the buying averages of the already existing quality stocks in your folio. 

How do you get liquid for life?

You employ the small entry quantum strategy.

Yes, that’s about right. 

We’ve been speaking about this strategy in this space for the last two years.

Read up!

🙂

When Do You Bet The Farm? 

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Bread and butter. 

Safety-…

…-net.

Basics.

You gather yourself to carve out a comfortable life for your family. 

Build-up. 

Debt-free-ness. 

Yeah, zero-debt. 

Feel the freedom. 

Breathe. 

No bondage. 

No tension. 

You have to feel it. 

Surplus. 

First, small surplus. 

Then, big surplus. 

You’ve made sure that nobody ever will remind you to pay your bills. 

Great! Well done. Now… 

… keeping all basics intact… 

… you play with small surplus. 

Risk. Calculated. Digestible. 

Multiplier. 

Loss. Cut small. 

Win. Allowed to grow. 

Small surplus starts giving regular fruit. 

You put back the principal into your family’s basic corpus. 

Repeat. 

Many of your small surpluses have grown into fruit-bearing trees. 

Your farm is bursting with grain and fruit. 

Have you taken any big, indigestible risks? 

No. 

Have you ever put your family basics at risk? 

No. 

Have you ever thought about betting the farm? 

NO. 

Will you ever bet the farm, no matter how big the lure? 

NEVER. 

Nath on Equity – Some more DooDats 

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Yawn, the story goes on… 

Let’s 21). not think about our folio at night. 

We’re also 22). only going to connect to the market on a need-to basis, no more. 

If there’s a 23). doubt, wait. 

24). Clarify doubt. If it goes away, proceed with market action. If not, discard action. 

Don’t spread 25). too wide. 75+ stocks means you’re running a mutual fund. 

Don’t spread 26). too thin either. Just 5 stocks in the folio means that risk is not adequately spread out. Choose your magic number, one that you’re comfortable with. 

Once this number is crossed, 27). start discarding the worst performer upon every new addition. 

28). Rarely look at folio performance. Only do so to fine-tune folio. 

Don’t give 29). tips. Don’t ask for them either. 

You are you. 30). Don’t compare your folio to another. 

Due diligence will require 31). brass tacks. Don’t be afraid to plunge into annual reports and balance sheets. 

32). Read between the lines. 

Look 33). how much the promoters personally earn annually from the underlying . Some promoters take home an unjustified number. That’s precisely the underlying to avoid. Avoid a greedy promoter as if you were avoiding disease. 

Is 34). zero-debt really zero-debt?  Look closely. 

Are the 35). promoters shareholder-friendly? Do they regularly create value for the shareholder? 

Are 36). strong reserves present? 

Are the 37). promoters capable of eating up these instead of using them to create value? 

Is the 38). underlying liquid enough to function on a daily basis? Look at the basic ratios. 

Is any 39). wheeling-dealing going on with exceptional items and what have you? 

40). Is the company likely to be around in ten years time? 

Yeah, things in the equity world need to be thorough. 

We’re getting there. 

🙂