Category Archives: Game-Changers
Technically speaking, how are you doing?
Hey,
How’re your technicals going?
The whole world looks at the same or similar technicals, you know.
For example, if there’s support, everyone knows there’s support.
If a Fibonacci level has been reached, it’s the identical story.
When a trendline is broken, yes, you guessed it, the story hasn’t changed.
Yeah, we’ve got a problem.
What do we do here?
We don’t have an option but to think a couple of steps ahead.
As in, when a support is reached, we’re still talking about support at minus let’s say 3%, ok? Decide whatever number you wish to for yourself here, but till support minus that number is not breached, in your book, support still hasn’t been broken.
Thinking around, that’s what we are doing here.
Why?
We don’t wish to be pushed into market behaviour till something is happening.
We wish to forgo noise.
When we act, we wish to do so in a more sure-shot fashion.
A thinking-around approach thus becomes inevitable.
Similary, it’s not a Fibonacci bounce-off till let’s say (Fib62 + x) has been surpassed. Decide what your x is.
Or, a trendline is not broken till the close says so, or till there are two simultaneous closes below or above it.
You get the drift.
Make your own bye-rules.
That way, for all you know, you could still end up using a potentially defunct technical machinery, which, because of your thinking-around exercise, has suddenly become a powerful and potent tool.
🙂
My Buddy called Compounding
Compounding…
…is my happy space.
When I’m having a difficult market day,…
…I open my calculator…
…and start…
…compounding.
My friend clears all doubts in a flash.
It’s easy to compound on the calc.
In German they’d say “Pippifax”.
The younger tribe in the English-speaking world would say easy peasy…
…(lemon squeasy).
Let me run you through it.
Let’s say you wish to calculate an end amount after 25 years of compounding @ 9 % per annum.
Let z be the initial amount (invested).
The calculation is z * 1.09 ^25.
That’s it.
You don’t have to punch in 25 lines. It’s 1 line.
What if you went wrong on the 18th line?
So 1 line, ok? That’s all.
What’s ^ ?
This symbol stands for “to the power of”.
On your calculator, look for the y to power of x key, and then…
…punch in z * 1.09 (now press y to the power of x)[and then punch in 25].
What does such an exercise do for me?
Meaning, why does this exercise ooze endorphins?
Let’s say I’m investing in sound companies, with zero or very little debt, diligent and shareholder-friendly managements, and into a versatile product profile, looking like existing long into the future, basically meaning that I’m sound on fundamentals.
Let’s say that the stock is down owing to some TDH (TomDicK&Harry) reason, since that’s all it’s taking for a stock to plunge since the beginning of 2018.
I have no control over why this stock is falling.
Because of my small entry quantum strategy, I invest more as this fundamentally sound stock falls.
However, nth re-entry demands some reassurance, and that is given en-masse by the accompanying compounding exercise.
At the back of my mind I know that my money is safe, since fundamentals are crystal clear. At the front-end, Mr. Compounding’s reassurance allows me to pull the trigger.
Let’s run through a one-shot compounding exercise.
How much would a million invested be worth in thirty years, @ 11% per annum compounded.
That’s 1 * 1.11^30 = almost 23 million, that’s a 2300% return in 30 years, or 75%+ per annum non-compounded!
Now let’s say that my stock selection is above average. Let’s assume it is good enough to make 15% per annum compounded, over 30 years.
What’s the million worth now?
1 * 1.15^30 = about 66 million, whoahhh, a 6600% return in 30 years, or 220% per annum non-compounded.
Let’s say I’m really good, perhaps not in the RJ or the WB category, but let’s assume I’m in my own category, calling it the UN category. Let’s further assume that my investment strategy is good enough to yield 20% per annum compounded.
Ya. What’s happened to the million?
1 * 1.20^30 = about 237 million…!! 23700% in 30 years, or 790% per annum non-compounded…
…is out of most ballparks!!!
How can something like this be possible?
It’s called “The Power of Compounding”…,
…most famously so by Mr. Warren Buffett himself.
Try it out!
Pickle your surplus into investment with fundamentally sound strategy.
Sit tight.
Lo, and behold.
🙂
When the Need to Commit Arrives
Sniffing Out Shareholder-Friendliness
Shareholder-friendly managements…
…are the need of the hour.
What are the signs that we need to look out for, to know that a management is benevolent towards its co-owner?
Frugality in lifestyle and attitude is worth looking at.
What I’m trying to say is…
…that one hates to see a promoter living it up on company funds, at the cost of the company’s health.
Living it up is ok. Have the balance-sheet to justify it – first – please.
Are you debt-free? Quasi debt-free will do too.
Does your company ooze free cash-flow?
Are your employees well-paid and automatons for growth?
NPM double-digit?
RoE in the 20s?
Fine.
Live it up for all I care.
Take a high salary. Throw in a hefty commission.
God bless you.
I still want to co-own your company.
Any or most of these metrics not present & living it up on company money – well, nice knowing you, but no thanks.
We’re then looking for shareholder give-aways, you know,…
…dividends, bonuses, buybacks and stuff.
Again, the balance-sheet should show enough robustness to justify a giveaway.
If it doesn’t, it means that the management is trying to appease shareholders at the cost of the balance-sheet, and that’s an avoid in my book.
Look for simplicity in the annual report.
If one is getting lost in fancy words and hi-fi design, without being given the nitty-gritty at a glance, one is probably knocking on the wrong door.
Free cash-flow is a good thing. It allows for leverage to act upon opportunity and without incurring debt, among other things.
Look at deployment of net cash-flow generated from operating activities also. Deployment should be healthy. Shows growth.
Instead of looking for fad-stuff like synergy, let’s look to see if promoter action adds to the balance-sheet and makes it stronger.
These are just examples.
Sniff out shareholder-friendliness.
Put your own metrics together, to do so.
Insiding
The correct market strategy for oneself…
…is like a holy grail.
It doesn’t come for free.
Some don’t attain it at all.
Mostly, one does get to it but is not able to maintain it.
It’s great if you can arrive at your correct strategy, and keep it alive, forever.
However, that’s a huge statement.
Lots of caveats will need to be addressed before this statement can be made achievable.
What works for me is lots of hit and trial.
Levels internalize.
One gets a feel for what is disturbing (to oneself).
Internalization gets our reflexes going on auto.
“Insiding” is a term that I’ve made up signifying the struggle one goes through recognizing whatever needs to be recognized and arriving at one’s correct strategy.
This act of recognition comes from taking hits, year after year, till one is street-ready to handle whatever the street can offer at its worst.
Market action is mostly about making mistakes.
One keeps these small.
Whatever you end up doing right for yourself, …
…, yeah, that’s what you’re scaling up.
Out of ten attempted ideas, one might work.
Out of a hundred, three might work exponentially.
These are the ones.
Stick to these.
Scale them up.
Whatever it has cost you to arrive at them, is mere tuition fees.
Yes, that’s how you’ll need to see things, to remain sane.
Be happy – at least you have something concrete in your hands – a strategy that works – that’s huge.
The moment you see it turning incorrect, leading to market mistakes, just tweak, tweak tweak till the strategy starts working again.
Tweaking will go on as long as markets exist.
What’s a market mistake?
A market mistake is anything that makes you lose money consistently.
A correct strategy is something that yields money consistently.
That’s why one needs to keep things small till major mistakes are out of the way.
Make mistakes, sure, they are bread and butter.
Just don’t repeat them.
Nadir Non-Focus
Scared to enter?
Things look gloomy?
Forever?
NO.
Look at History.
Markets are where they are despite what’s happened.
Governments, scams, frauds, bribes, wars, disasters – the list is endless.
In the end, we are still where we are.
Is that good news?
YES.
What does it mean?
Growth – reflects in the corresponding market – eventually.
Sure – we might not be growing at 7%+.
We definitely are growing at 5%+, perhaps at 5.5%+.
In a few years, growth could well accelerate.
Why?
Earning hands are growing.
So are aspirations.
The consumption story in India is alive and kicking.
What we’re seeing currently is a result of eighteen months of bad news.
Such a long spate of negative stuff churning out gets the morale down.
People start letting go of their holdings in despair.
Maybe there’s another eighteen months of negativity left – who knows.
That’s not the right question.
Don’t worry yourself about the bottom and when and where it is going to come.
Why?
Please answer something far more fundamental first.
If you don’t have the courage to go in at this level (with small quanta of course, we do follow the small entry quantum strategy)…
…do you really thing…
…that you will muster up…
…anything remotely resembling courage…
…at a number that is let’s say 20% below current levels?
Gotcha there?
Give Me My Table & I’ll Undetach
Detaching…
… .
My work is done for the day.
Enjoying the remainder of the day is now a priority.
Would that be possible without detaching from the workplace?
No.
Is it that easy…
…to detach?
No.
Am I successful in detaching?
Reasonably.
Just like that?
No.
Meaning?
It’s taken me fifteen years to learn to detach reasonably well from the markets, …
… and, there are still times when external factors cause unwanted and untimely re-attachment.
The next time I wish to undetach (yeah, just made up this word!) is the next time I wish to engage.
To undetach, all I need is my work-table.
Rest follows on auto.
However, when I’m not on my work-table, mostly, I don’t wish to undetach, …
…and surely enough, someone will want to discuss markets, …
…or someone switches on financial TV, …
…or one catches a headline in the paper, …
…or a tip can’t be refrained from being given, …
…or, well, use your imagination.
Getting around peoples’ free-fund-attitude is the biggest challenge for a market-practitioner, in my opinion.
You might master market-etiquette, and you might learn how to detach in isolation. However, people won’t spare you.
Detaching despite people while living and thriving amongst people is one huge win.
Getting there…
… 🙂 .
Going beyond the P-Word
Hey,
You panicking?
Why?
Don’t.
How?
To go beyond panic at a time like this, you’ll need to be amply liquid.
And, then, you’ll need to have the guts to engage.
One way for remaining liquid for life is to follow a small entry quantum strategy.
Since we’ve spoken about such strategy ad-nauseum in this space,…
…yeah,…
we won’t be going into the nitty gritty of how the strategy works for the moment.
In a nutshell, our small entry quantum strategy leaves us liquid, and then some.
What exactly is a time like this?
Well, Benzes have started to go for the price of fiats, and…
…that’s why we need to…
…engage.
Forget your pain, pinch or panic.
Buy…
…quality that’s going for a song.
Now.
Keep buying such quality for as long as the cheapness lasts.
Year, two years, three, four, bring it on.
When you engage in this manner, you’ll have gone beyond all your P-words.
Wishing you lucrative and happy investing!
Sometimes, you don’t like it
Sure.
Like now.
Bloodbath in small-caps.
Alleged suicide.
NPAs.
Witch-hunt.
Did you choose Equity as an area of expertise?
Ok, then deal with it.
First up, India’s History is laden with scams.
We are where we are despite these.
Secondly, there’s growth. In other parts of the world, there is not much growth.
India is an emotionally volatile nation.
So are its markets.
Since this is where we act, let’s get used to things.
If you’ve been following the small entry quantum strategy, well, then you’ve got ammunition…
…at a time, when the value of this ammunition is immense…
…because lots of stuff has started to go for a song.
You do feel the pinch though…
… because whatever’s already in, is bleeding.
You don’t like it.
It’s normal.
Going in at a time like this, you will feel pathetic.
However, for your money, you are getting quality at cheap multiples. This will translate into immense long term wealth. Quality at cheap multiples multiplies fast.
Here are a few reasons you should feel ok about going in.
The small entry quantum strategy has rendered you liquid…
…after sorting out your basic family life, income-planning and what have you.
You are going in with money you don’t require for a longish time.
Muster up the courage.
Get over your pinch.
Engage.
Buy quality.
Debt-free-ness.
Shareholder-friendliness.
Generated free cashflow.
Transparency.
Diligent managements.
Product-profile that’s going to be around.
Less dependency on water.
Versatility.
Adaptibility.
Make your own list.
Use the stuff above.
Wishing you lucrative investing with no tears and with lots of smiles.
Control
Who’s in control?
You?
Market?
Does the market control you?
Do you control yourself?
How do you answer this?
Why are these questions relevant?
Control is pivotal.
It sets the tone for market life, and its overhang affects normal life too.
That’s why it is essential to have such control in one’s hands, and not hand it over to Mrs. Market.
So, how does one answer this question?
What triggers you to open your terminal?
The market?
Or you yourself, at a time and place of your own choosing?
If your answer is the former, the market controls how you act.
However, if you decide when and where to let market forces into your life, and for how much time, well, then you’ve not handed over such control.
Bravo!
How did you position yourself to achieve this?
Primary income not from the markets?
Not.
Don’t listen to tips?
Don’t.
Have a set time for work?
True.
Have a set place for work?
Roger.
Have a set system that’s implemented?
Affirmative.
Watch market TV?
Nope.
Read financial news online, or in print?
Only while researching a company.
Do your own solid research?
Do.
‘K, you’ve not handed over control all right.
Sure. Hand over control and the next thing you know it’s your life you’re handing over.
Getting the Number
There comes a time in life…
…when you are in a position to make defining statements about yourself.
This is what you don’t like doing.
Shove it out. Except what you can’t.
This is what you like doing.
Amongst what you like doing, this is what is beneficial for you.
Make a list for this last category.
A.
B.
C.
D.
E…
…etc.
Get the number…
…in these categories.
What does that mean?
It means, scale these activities up.
There will be resistance.
Don’t bother.
It’s your lot in life.
This is what you’ve come to do.
First up, you’re going to do it.
Many times, you’ll find yourself slipping into the other category, of things that you like doing, but which are not necessarily beneficial for you.
Fine.
Please yourself.
That’s also what you’ve come to do.
When you’ve had your heart’s content of pleasure, please come back to the originally earmarked category.
Intermittently, you’ll be doing stuff that you don’t like doing, but aren’t able to shove out.
This stuff is also good for you,…
…because, it teaches.
Just do it with that attitude.
Once you’ve gotten your numbers in your earmarked category, you can shift gears a bit.
Voila, you start doing stuff that benefits others.
Your stomach is full.
You’ve achieved.
It doesn’t give you a kick anymore.
Now, benefitting others will give you a kick.
Go for it.
Get your number here.
Of course.
It’s something you came to do too.
Make sure you get here.
Don’t get stuck somewhere before you reach it.
Listening to Time
Market work…
…has some eccentricities.
One can’t work in the markets all the time.
That’s normal, right?
Well, yes and no.
At a place of work, one should be able to work.
Markets don’t always allow work.
So don’t other work places, sure.
At other times, you don’t feel like doing market work.
Aha.
This happens multiple time a year.
What do we do here?
We create an environment that incorporates this eventuality seamlessly.
First up, why is this incorporation essential?
Let’s assume that we need to work in the markets all the time.
When we don’t feel like, and we have to, well, then, we are likely to make mistakes.
Read mistakes as losses.
Mistakes in the market translate into losses.
(Amongst other things), we are in the markets to …
… minimize losses.
Therefore, when we don’t feel like doing market work …
… we just sheer don’t do it.
So, back to square one, how do we incorporate this seamlessly?
By making market work our secondary source of income.
Our basic income needs to be sorted through our primary source.
Now, we can shut off the markets at will without this affecting our basic income. Whether we can also emotionally detach is a discussion for another day.
There are times when one just doesn’t feel like opening up the terminal.
Listen to such times.
Shut out the markets at will…
…only to open them up again when they’re a go for you.
We’re still at step 1, which you’ve just cleared for yourself.
Now we try and gauge whether times are such that markets allow work.
Listen to such times.
When you feel like working and markets allow you to work, go all out. Exhaust existing work potential.
When you feel like working, and markets don’t allow work, do other stuff. Get your research ready. Become poised.
Sooner than later, your action criteria will be met…
…and you will be able to act.
Shutting Down the Manipulator
Markets…
…manipulate.
That’s their very nature.
Are we in the game to be manipulated?
What’s your answer?
Mine is no.
It’s a pretty emphatic no.
I’ve backed my no with action.
How do I stop the markets from manipulating me?
The answer if found in one’s trajectory of action.
Is there anything in one’s market actions that can be easily second-guessed by the market?
For example, is one acting upon plain vanilla technicals?
Is one acting upon news? Results? Announcements?
Let’s not base our action upon anything the market is doing or telling us to do.
Period.
It’s as simple as that.
With that, we’ve already shut out all avenues for manipulation.
Where does that leave you?
What to do now?
You must be asking this.
Well, build your own system.
Let it expand and explore.
Let it gain complexity.
Let it boil the complexity down to simplicity.
Let your actions be based upon your unique bridges.
Yes, build your bridges.
Make your own market landmarks.
When you act, nobody knows that you are acting.
If nobody even knows that you are implementing an action, well, then nobody can know what that action is, or how it is implemented.
You’re done already.
Enjoy your non-manipulable existence.
I wish for you that it is lucrative!
🙂
Feeling
Who writes the rule-book for your market-life?
You do.
Why do you do it?
Nobody else is qualified enough.
You know yourself better than others.
Don’t you?
Thus, one feels one’s way through the markets, setting up lamp-posts and rules.
For example, I recently discover how to integrate my investing life with my trading life, in one particular market.
It takes me a long, long time to do so.
Nothing has really worked on this front.
Both lives have been getting affected, adversely, because of each other.
It’s outright frustrating and, I just sheer stop trading this market, to allow my investing life to prosper.
Simultaneously, I keep feeling my way through, trying out various permutations and combinations…
…, one of which seems to be working.
How do I know?
I’m trading again.
What have I done that I wasn’t doing before?
I haven’t been using the concept of exhaustion.
I exhaust my ability to invest, opportunity-wise.
Since I follow a small entry-quantum approach, liquidity exhaustion isn’t going to work.
Opportunity exhaustion is.
As opportunities keep coming, I keep going in, each time with small quanta, not changing anything in my investment approach.
One fine day, there is no margin of safety being offered.
I don’t feel like going in.
I am exhausted.
I shut down my investment widow…
…and then {[:-)]}, open my trading window.
Within an hour, I take a trade.
Lo and behold, integration has taken place.
Seamlessly.
All our demons are inside of us.
If one is not dying, exhaust it with feeling, even temporarily, to look after your other vital activities.
Have the Guts?
Somebody did say …
… that Equity was not for the faint-hearted.
Oh, how true!
Everyday, my heart stands tested!
However, because of a small entry quantum strategy, I am able to stay in the game.
If I am able to stay in the game for multiple cycles, I will prosper.
Why?
Firstly, the strategy by default renders me liquid, such are its tenets.
Then, a good hard look at fundamentals is always called for.
To close, it is important is to enter with technicals to support you.
Now let’s say I make a mistake.
What is a mistake?
Ya, good question – in the markets, what is a mistake?
In the markets, when the price goes against you, you have made a mistake.
So let’s say that I’ve made a mistake.
Is the mistake big?
No.
Why?
Because of my small entry quantum.
What does it mean for my next entry?
Added margin of safety.
Is that good?
You bet.
Why?
Because fundamentals are intact.
What’s going to eventually happen?
Stock’s going to bottom out.
I’ll have a decent amount of entries to my name.
My buying average will be reasonably low.
The margin of safety my buying average allows me will let me sit on the stock forever, If I wish to.
Down the road, one day, I might be sitting on a big fat multiple.
Please do the math.
Happy and lucrative investing!
🙂
Trigger-Happiness triggering your happiness?
Action?
All the time?
Do you crave it?
And, are you in the markets?
Boy, do you have your work cut out for you, or do you have your work cut out for you?
Ideally, your long-term investment should not give you action.
When it does, it should push you to act.
What backfires is when you act to push it.
Unless you’re convinced by a stock, you don’t buy it.
Unless there’s margin of safety, you don’t buy it.
Unless there’s more margin of safety, you don’t re-buy it.
Unless you’re fed up with the stock or the antics of its management, you don’t sell it.
The whole long-term game is biased towards inaction.
Those who master the art of inaction are good long-term investors.
Bridging gaps is paramount.
What do you do with the vast amounts of time at your disposal?
Do twenty other things.
Create value in many walks of life.
Let the areas not overlap with any of the markets you are tapping.
Capture the attention of your mind.
What happens if you don’t?
Boredom, inaction or the need for action will propel you towards making a mistake.
Mistakes in the market cost money.
That’s how they’re defined.
Do yourself a huge favour.
Approach the markets after having embraced inaction.
Behaviour at the Sweet Spot
When you’re active,…
…happy,…
…at your financial goal,…
… and looking to go beyond,…
…what is this condition called?
It’s called…
…being at the sweet spot.
Stop here.
Enjoy it.
It’s come after toil.
Don’t let is go.
Whatever you do from this point onwards, maintain the existence of the sweet spot.
If you’re careless, the sweet spot will be gone…
…and you’ll be back in the rut.
If you don’t know how to behave at a sweet spot…
…you’ll most certainly see it go.
So…
…how does one behave at a sweet spot?
First up, don’t make too many moves here, because balance is brittle and has come at a cost.
You’ve moved your mountains to reach here. Movement is done.
Savings will emanate at the sweet spot.
Tap these.
Do whatever it is you wish to do from a part of these savings.
As your savings grow further, detach yourself more and more from the rat-race.
The sweet spot was the one where you told yourself you’d be happy.
Beyond, you should be happier.
Make sure that comes true for you.
Happy Living!
Hidden Benefit of a non-conducive Work Environment
Sometimes, we land up in a space that enhances the quality of our work.
What kind of a space do we think that is?
Conducive?
Or non-conducive?
Sure, a conducive environment should lead to high quality work.
Hold that thought.
When the human being stops struggling, he or she has been known to get lazy.
In that frame of body and mind, quality walks out the door.
The highest quality work seems to be happening in environments that make the person concerned struggle.
When one struggles, all pistons fire.
At any cost, one needs to stay afloat, and kick.
And kick one does.
One kicks one’s demons out.
Once they’re gone, achieved momentum boosts performance, and quality shines.
Cut to thought on hold.
What’s our take now?
Are we ok if the people around us are nags, and make it very difficult for us to work…
…or if there’s some other unbearable thing about our place of work?
Yes we are.
Because…
…we love quality.
Where do you want to be?
Where do I want to be?
Do I want to look at a stock price and know where things stand with the stock in question?
Yes.
That’s where I want to be.
It’s not going to come for free.
What will it take?
Looking at the stock…
…for an year or two.
That’s what it will take.
How boring, you say?
Sure.
When stock market investing seems boring…
…that’s when you’re doing it right.
Excitement and roller-coaster rides are for video-game pleasure, and for making losses.
Money is made when it’s outright boring out there.
Where do you want to be?
In the money?
I thought so.
Then, please get used to boring and don’t ever complain again that things are boring.
How does one position oneself in such a manner that one studies a stock for an year or two.
Hmmm.
Let’s put some skin in the game.
I know, this phrase is becoming more and more popular, what with Nicholas Taleb and all.
Yeah, we are picking up stock.
What stock?
The one we wish to observe for an year or two.
Why pick it up? Why not just observe it?
You won’t. You’ll let it go.
Why?
Because it’s not yours.
So we pick up the stock? What’s the point of observing if we’re picking it up now?
Well, we’re picking up a minute quantity – one quantum – now. That gets our skin into the game. Then we observe, and observe. Anytime there’s shareholder-friendly action by the management, we pick up more, another quantum. We keep picking up, quantum by quantum. Soon, while we’ve kept picking up, we’ve observed the stock for so long, that now, one look at the stock price tells us what kind of margin of safety we are getting in the stock at this point.
Wow.
Now, future entries become seamless. One look and we have a yes or no decision. Isn’t that wonderful?
Absolutely.
That’s where we want to be.
