What’s the Advantage of “Out of Sight”?

Trigger-fingers?

We are.

At some stage or the other, in our market-life. 

Is it good?

No. 

Why?

When we are in this mode, we shoot. 

We don’t look too much. 

We just shoot.

Why?

Either we don’t know any better. 

Or, we’re not able to control the impulse. 

We want to do something. 

We want action. 

If we’re not getting it, we forcefully create it. 

Is this wrong?

You bet. 

How do we rectify it?

Simple. 

Huh?

Yeah, just use the “out of sight” principle. 

Pray what’s that?

Well, if funds hit your bank account, pick up your smart-device and transfer them online to your liquid fund account. 

Advantage?

Funds are not present in your feeder account. 

Try firing now.

Nothing happens. 

No funds. 

However, the funds are not far away. In fact they are just a few button-clicks away. 

These few button-clicks are activation-barrier enough. 

They make you stop and think. 

You do your proper due diligence before moving them out of your liquid mutual fund account back to your feeder account. 

You use them for proper investing opportunities. 

You’re not trigger-happy anymore. 

All it took was a simple trick. 

Use it. 

There’s no law against liquid mutual fund accounts. Probably never will be.

Those five or six button-clicks have converted you from trigger-fingers to duly diligent!

🙂

Who gets 5 Stars for Fund Movement?

Movement?

Or lack of movement?

What will you have?

Who discusses such a topic?

Is this lame?

Is it that we have nothing better to do?

NO.

Fund movement is a central topic.

Funds are blood.

You need to be master of their movement. Winners are.

What’s there to discuss?

Aren’t things obvious?

Well, no.

To most people, things wrt movement of funds are everything else but obvious.

No pipelines are created.

No sheds for storage.

No safety mode in the firing gun.

Gun fires as soon as the load is available.

You see, all this leads to losing positions.

How?

One should not fire as soon as one can load.

One should fire when one sees a ripe target for the taking.

What should one do till then?

Store the load. Elsewhere. Give it some light work to do. Put it in a position that it can make its way easily back to you as soon as you call it in.

When do you call it in?

When you see the big fat target.

Again, isn’t all this obvious?

Again, no, to most people, no, no, no.

Most people are busy getting sophisticated.

They don’t focus on the basics.

Basics win you the game.

Sophistication might deceive you into the false belief that you are winning or are one up, but because you’ve forgotten to focus on the basics, chances are high that you’ll end up losing.

So here’s what one needs to do.

No gun in the house.

No load in the house.

Big fat target. Identify.

Go to load. Load = funds.

Direct load to gun. This is the movement process. It happens online. Funds are directed to a website.

Fire. Pull the trigger on the concerned website. Yeah, gun’s in cyber-space.

Wait for next opportunity.

Repeat.

So on and so forth.

This way, due to sharply controlled fund movement, one creates positions with high potential to win.

Come on, get your basics in order. Leave sophistication to the losers.

🙂

Fitting

I have this Wills fleece sweat-shirt since ’98.

Love it.

It’s a fit.

Can wear it for anything.

I’m sure you own or do something that just fits.

Very few people in the market understand the value of a fit.

What does a fit feel like?

It comes naturally.

No prompting or pushing.

It’s the essence of your strategy which resonates with you.

A fit holds you and moves you forward.

It makes you money till it continues to fit.

The ideal fit lasts a lifetime.

Nuances.

Everything and everyone has nuances.

A fit happens when nuances are out of the way. They’ve been dealt with in a full and final manner. They appeared, sure enough, got knocked out, which is when they disappeared. What remained was pure you and your fit. The two of you united.

Why is this fit so important?

We’ve spoken about the money angle. A fit makes you money.

There’s the family angle. A fit doesn’t let your market-life harm your family-life. Hence it ensures its own longevity by vitalizing your market-life and also your mental health.

A fit then possesses the versatility to deal with stumbling blocks along the path. Travel? You implement your strategy successfully despite travel. Schedule? Fit works around it. Diet? Fit changes diet, till diet fits.

Don’t underestimate the power of a fit.

🙂

Decoupling One o Two

Trade on.

Market forces.

You.

Connection.

Attenuation.

Life normal.

This is the real decoupling.

What was the other decoupling?

The myth one?

Myth?

I mean, Switzerland is kinda financially decoupled. The CHF just keeps its own despite anything.

Israel is also sort of decoupled. Despite everything. Functions on its own tangent. Matter of opinion.

These are exceptions. They prove the norm.

There are remote chances these exceptions won’t exist tomorrow. Having said that, let’s hope nothing like that ever happens.

However, permanent decoupling is mostly a myth. We’ll be better off not incorporating it into our investment or trading strategy.

Decoupling one o two is a different matter.

It is very welcome.

It gives longevity and harmony to a trader’s market- and normal-life.

Happy trading!

🙂

What’s it Gonna Take Today, Pal?

Indicators.

Fibonacci.

Moving averages.

Price action.

Isn’t everyone following all this?

Do the markets behave accordingly?

No. Not really. Sometimes, sure. Generally, no. Just my opinion.

So?

Where does that leave you?

How do you plan your trade entry?

There’s not much planning to it really.

Oh yeah?

Pray on what basis is one to enter then?

Study.

Then overall feel.

What?

Yes.

Gumption?

So?

With no study, direction’s a 50:50.

With study leading to overall feel translating into gumption, this ratio could well become 55:45.

You don’t need more.

Blackjack odds for the card-counter are perhaps 53:47 at peak.

Ok, so you’ve got your 55:45, what then?

Trade management.

You make your money managing your trade.

Formula?

Simple one.

You cut the wrong call. Nip it in the bud.

Let the right call continue being even more right.

Learn, perhaps the hard way, to let the winner continue winning.

Trade might reverse.

That’s the risk you have to take, to win more.

There are no free lunches in life.

Making the Skew – work for you

Anomalies.

Anomalies?

Opportunities.

Yeah.

It’s all about perspective.

Just align your perspective.

Get into the skin of the anomaly.

Why?

You were in this to make money, right?

So chop chop.

Anomalies are like waves.

They swell… and recede.

If you’ve missed one, wait for its one-offset to start swelling.

Oh yeah, forgot to reiterate, you’re out before it recedes.

That would be a great trade.

Getting in well before the swell and staying in would be an investment entry-strategy.

Getting out after a swell would be an investment exit-strategy.

Use your imagination.

Wishing you a lucrative market-footprint!

🙂

When are you doing it Right?

There’s something called the Line.

You feel it.

It’s abstract.

You have to be its master.

Then, you’re doing it right.

Controlled, the line won’t disturb your life.

It’ll very probably add to your life, in terms of wealth.

If you let it control you, everything is finished.

Goodbye.

Life. Wealth. Peace of mind.

It pays to master the line.

How do you feel the line?

By being invested, or in a trade.

How do you master the line?

By being invested or in a trade, again and again, again and again, and then some. Simultaneously, you’re nipping your bad behaviour in the bud, while the line is on.

You control your temper. You don’t lose it.

You develop patience with loved ones.

You learn how to position-size the line, while winning or losing.

You attenuate all kinds of disturbance.

You keep going on and on like this, till one fine day, the line’s presence becomes a part of your life. Line-switch being on doesn’t change you or alter your behaviour in any negative manner anymore.

That’s when you’re doing it right.

Effects?

Trade on = like when trade was not on.

Investment? You’re not thinking about it.

You sleep well.

Good family life… not disturbed by the presence of the line.

Yeah.

Line.

Master it.

Discipline or Brilliance, what would you have?

Both?

Ha!

Getting cocky already?

That’s brilliance for you.

Over-confident, lazy, show-offy, indulgent, holier-than-thou…, the list goes on.

These are some of the things brilliance also leads to, apart from displays of itself.

Would you still have it?

Many would.

The average being likes being spared the spade-work.

And you know what? I don’t even desire it in this form, with all these poisonous side-effects.

However, it’s acceptable to me in a different form, without the poison.

How does that work?

Ever slogged?

Hard work and discipline, people?

Heard of these?

These two have the side effect of – sparks of brilliance, without the poison.

How?

Bell curve of human effort – imagine.

You’re working at it’s edge.

Miniscule parts of you stray over to its beyond.

Rest of you eventually asks – hey, where are those miniscule missing parts?

Back they come.

They’re bring back vibrations from beyond the bell-curve.

These vibrations diffuse into you.

Some of them get absorbed. The rest dissipate.

Those getting absorbed find thought patterns they can cling to. That is how they are absorbed.

This energy from outside of our three perceivable dimensions, now fused with nascent but constructive thought patterns – what does it do?

It brings these thought patterns to fruition and to their logical conclusion.

Such actions are perceived as sparks of brilliance by humanity.

Such actions change humanity for the better.

That’s the kind of brilliance to strive for – through hard work and discipline.

What about the Spark?

Yeah, what about it?

Versatile word.

Used in spy mission abort code phrases.

Romance.

Automotive engineering.

Electrical engineering.

Stocks.

Stocks?

Stocks.

Whacko?

No.

Explain.

Ok.

Stockscreener.

Yeah?

Spits out list.

Yeah.

Eyeballing.

Ya.

Spark? Look into stock.

No spark anywhere, in the whole list? Redefine screener. Screen again.

This is a typical chronology of the beginning of stock selection.

Of course, now follows deep due diligence.

However, what are you DDing in?

That’s decided by the spark.

Remember the word.

Stop-Loss vs Hedge – what’s what and how?

Insurance.

Makes you sleep easy.

Simultaneously, you are able to take a calculated risk.

Risk?

Why should you take a risk?

No risk no gain.

It’s as simple as that.

You have to put something on the line to possibly gain something.

That’s what market activity is all about.

You’re doing this all the time.

Day in, day out.

You’ve become used to a steady and dynamic LINE. Your line doesn’t harm you anymore. It doesn’t disrupt your life.

Well done.

How did you achieve this?

By using stops and hedges.

What’s the difference?

The difference is technical, and then practical.

For some mindsets and positions, a stop is more suited.

When you don’t mind exposing your market-play, and want to close your terminal and do other stuff, use a stop.

You get up from your desk, engage in other activity, and have forgotten about your position, because now you don’t need to tend to its needs for 24 hours, for example.

Great.

Your position will either play out, or it won’t.

If it doesn’t, your stop will automatically throw you out of your position.

The level of the stop is digestible.

Next morning, you simply move on to a new trade.

Let’s say you don’t want to to expose your market play, or, in some cases, when you don’t need to expose your market play – how do you then insure yourself?

Hedge.

A hedge maintains general market neutrality.

It leaves windows open for what-if scenarios.

For example, the trade could make money, and then the hedge could make money.

Or, vice-versa. As in lose-lose. Sure, there are win-loss and loss-win scenarios too.

The starting point is somewhat neutral, and then there are permutations and combinations.

Some people prefer this kind of play.

They like the possibility of maximizing profit from the total position at a calculated higher risk.

Also fine.

Generally, the idea is for your main position to make money and your hedge to lose money.

It might or might not play out like that.

Some like this uncertainty and know how to benefit from it.

A stop is sure-shot and straight-forward. It is low-risk as long as it is digestible.

Hedges open you to the risks of a meta-game. Play becomes more interesting, consuming, and possibly, more profitable, for experienced hedgers.

In my opinion, a hedge is slightly higher in risk than a stop.

However, both entities lower overall risk.

Currency pair forex trades are typically taken with a stop. However, they can be hedged too.

Market-neutral option-trades are typically taken using hedges.

Step into a trade with either or, for peace of mind and career longevity.

Cheers.

🙂

How not to let something be on auto-nag

Clutter-up.

Simple solution.

Have lots of things going.

This way, one thing won’t have the power to nag.

We humans reminisce.

We go into nitty-gritty.

We worry.

We thus waste our time and an otherwise perfect present.

That’s us.

However, we can condition. We can change.

That’s also us.

One small activity is over, and the other one should start. Prequisite is that the former activity has been closed properly, even if temporarily.

Yeah, no in-between time to ruminate about how well or badly the preceeding activity went.

New activity brings its own challenge. It first shifts and then rivets our focus.

Carry this mindset over, to your professional life.

That’s all you need to do.

Go for it.

🙂

Is it just the Japanese?

No.

It’s us too.

We’re all whacky, at some level.

Humans have quirks.

Different ones to make the world go round.

Normal for me would be idiosyncratic elsewhere.

And vice-versa.

So there we are.

The other day someone was talking about panty-automats and strawberry-excretia. Way off the bell-curve, thought I. What was it about the Japanese?

Then, how were we perceived, as people?

We do have some ugly habits, us Indians.

Ever seen a guy doing an ayurvedic nasal-cleanse on the road? Sure.

Most leave the ayurvedic out.

Occupying someone else’s seat – we’re champions at that.

I’m sure you’ve heard of Indian Standard Time.

Cleaning house and throwing the dirt on the road outside our house – yeah, we’re geniuses.

However, one of our quirks is actually positive.

We SAVE.

It’s inborn. In our genes. Adding up. Compounding. All this comes naturally to us.

Yeah, silver lining. Does redeem us a bit, since this particular quality is in short supply, the world over.

Here’s hoping that we infect other nations with the savings bug.

Also, every nation has some positive quirks. Let’s look for these, to adopt.

Cheers!

🙂

One up on the Screenshot

It keeps getting better!

There came the selfie.

Then the screenshot asked it to move over.

Now it’s the all-powerful clipping.

Yeah, clippings are taking it away.

They’ve even told the protectionists to go take a walk.

Apps are incorporating clippers.

So are browsers, as plug-ins.

What’s so special about the clipping?

In a nutshell, the clipping leads to tailor-storage of your web-experience.

Wow.

What, someone programmed in a screenshot-prohibitor?

No biggie.

Your clipper will still clip and store the entire protected page, clip by clip if it has to. Then you can just upload all the clippings to one central storage point, like Dropbox, Google Drive, or better still – Evernote. Yeah, for example in Evernote, the clippings will read as one seamless webpage.

Now that is powerful.

Feeling lazy?

There are n different ways to clip web-content. Just button-click your choice, Mr. Couch Potato.

Let’s say you want 60% of the webpage.

Yeah, there’s a lot of useless stuff you want to get rid of. Sure.

Go clip by clip. Got it together? Fine. Upload to central.

What exactly are we achieving here?

With the ability to clip and archive, your web-experience will be properly stored, waiting for your recall button-clicks.

Very soon, we’ll discuss the idea of tailor-storage further. Yeah, tagging. I’m sure you’re already doing it and know all about it. Nevertheless, we’ll discuss it.

🙂

What is an Antifragile approach to Equity?

Taleb’s term “antifragile” is here to stay.

If my understanding is correct, an asset class that shows more upside than downside upon the onset of shock in this age of shocks – is termed as antifragile.

So what’s going to happen to us Equity people?

Is Equity a fragile asset class?

Let’s turn above question upon its head.

What about our approach?

Yes, our approach can make Equity antifragile for us.

We don’t need to pack our bags and switch to another asset class.

We just approach Equity in an antifragile fashion. Period.

Well, aren’t we already? Margin of safety and all that.

Sure. We’ll just refine what we’ve already got, add a bit of stuff, and come out with the antifragile strategy.

So, quality.

Management.

Applicability to the times.

Scalability.

Value.

Fundamentals.

Blah blah blah.

You’ve done all your research.

You’ve found a plum stock.

You’re getting margin of safety.

Lovely.

What’s missing?

Entry.

Right.

You don’t enter with a bang.

You enter at various times, again and again, in small quanta.

What are these times?

You enter in the aftermath of shocks.

There will be many shocks.

This is the age of shocks.

You enter when the stock is at its antifragile-most. For that time period. It is showing maximal upside. Minimal downside. Fundamentals are plum. Shock’s beaten it down. You enter, slightly. Put yourself in a position to enter many, many times, over many years, upon shock after shock. This automatically means that entry quantum is small. This also means you’re doing an SIP where the S stands for your own system (with the I being for investment and the P for plan).

Now let’s fine-fine-tune.

Don’t put more than 0.5% of your networth into any one stock, ever. Adjust this figure for yourself. Then adjust entry quantum for yourself.

Don’t enter into more than 20-30 stocks. Again, adjust to comfort level.

Remain doable.

If you’re full up, and something comes along which you need to enter at all costs, discard a stock you’re liking the least.

Have your focus-diversified portfolio (FDP) going on the side, apart from Equity.

Congratulations, you just made Equity antifragile for yourself.

🙂

Still Looking for those Two Minutes of Freedom?

Why?

Meaning why haven’t you found them already?

It was just two minutes, right?

What was so difficult about that?

Perhaps you didn’t understand the task?

Ok.

Fine.

This is what we’re now going to try and look for.

Two minutes in the whole day. Where we feel absolutely free.

No shackles, no bondage, no worries, no tension.

Just sheer freedom.

Complete freedom.

We’re going to find them.

We could be doing an activity while we experience them.

Or, we could be doing nothing.

Depends on person to person.

Sleeping is a different matter. It doesn’t count for our exercise.

I’ve already shared with you where I find my freedom.

Right here.

I feel free when I write.

You need to find yours.

Now.

Why are we doing this exercise?

There’s something about freedom.

As you’re feeling it, it’s also freeing up stuff inside you and around you. Quality of life goes up several notches. You’ve got to experience it. Words won’t suffice.

So go for it.

What’re you waiting for?

🙂

Learning to live with (temporary) imperfection

Perfectionist?

You?

Brace up.

Something small goes amiss.

You still have to get your act together.

If you have lots going under your umbrella, well, then even more so, exponentially.

Life’s about permutations and combinations.

Something or the other goes astray, almost always.

Make sure you don’t.

Go astray, that is.

Yeah.

Explain to yourself.

Hold your act together.

The other stuff under your umbrella hasn’t gone astray.

Only the one thing has.

That’s not a bad score.

Move on.

Times change.

You will get a chance to set it right.

Such is time.

Meaning, take care of your other stuff.

Well.

Take care of it well.

When the time arrives, set your astray business right.

Now you’re good.

See?

Didn’t hurt, did it?

You held your other stuff together.

You set your astray stuff right.

All came out perfect.

What more could you want?

It paid to keep your cool.

You didn’t blow it.

Worry could have blown it.

Your other stuff could have suffered.

However you were stronger.

You had learnt to live with imperfection…

… because you had also learnt…

… that time is the great equalizer…

… and that you’d get the opportunity to make it perfect again…

which you did, while you kept your world balanced…!

Well done!

🙂

Order, Order! Have you Ordered?

Back in good old college days, Professor Weyrich used to teach us about entropy.

He taught us so well, that we’ll never forget what entropy is.

He began by taking away the hype. He knocked the wind out of the “monster” in our minds. We were able to learn once and for all what entropy is.

“Entropy is a stink-normal measurable quantity”. These were the learned professor’s catalytic words.

What does it measure?

Disorder.

Aha!

Million dollar word.

Aren’t we so in the middle of it?

It causes us to stall. Daily. Hourly.

It grows. Engulfs us. Disarray.

If we do nothing, yes.

What if we do something?

Will it still grow?

Not if we counter it.

How do we counter it?

By creating order.

Remember these three words. Someday, they’ll make you invincible.

How do you utilize your spare time? What about your normal time?

In fact, spend the whole day creating order. Systems. Pathways. Inroads. Efficient shortcuts. Approachable strategies. You get the gist.

Why?

Why not?

Who doesn’t want a smooth life?

What makes it smooth?

Order.

One needs to make that order exist first.

Relevance?

Order is the backbone of any financial strategy. It counters market disorder and tries to translate this into profits.

Let go of all laziness.

Start creating order.

If nothing else, do it for your families, for your children.

Go for it.

🙂

Focused Diversification : Mantra for all Times

I’m more into focus.

One can focus on one thing at a time.

Agreed.

What if after that one thing starts running, it doesn’t require any more focus?

Wow.

Then I focus on another thing.

Get it running.

Then another.

Till my focus window is full.

Let me tell you about my focus window.

I focus on cash, debt, equity, forex, gold, real-estate, arbitrage, and options.

With that, my professional focus in finance is full full full.

I get something running.

That’s it.

Then I don’t need to be with it. Mostly.

Let me run you through.

1). Cash – Bind it in a worry-free and accessible manner. Done.

2). Debt – Study the underlying very thoroughly. Reject 10 underlyings. Take up the 11th which passes all criteria. Be happy with a slightly better than FD-return. Done.

3). Equity – Invest for life. Study till you drop the stock or take it up. Only invest in what meets all criteria and offers margin of safety at time of investing. On top of that – SIP (systematic investment plan). Done.

4). Forex – Get a software robot to trade it for you. Or some human-capital. All available online. Requires a bit of fine-tuning. Keep tuning till you start making a return. Done.

5). Gold – Buy physical gold. Research your source. Needs to be impeccable. Bullion. Coins. SIP. Accessible. No jewellery. Done.

6). Real-estate – Make your real-estate yield you an income. Regular income? Done.

7). Arbitrage – Understand what this is, and why it gives you a tax benefit. Get an online MF account going with Kotak MF or DWS. Divert some funds into their arbitrage MF, either or. I prefer Kotak. Monthly dividend payout option. Done.

8). Options – Get the option-strategy going. You don’t require a desktop. Mobile is sufficient. All you now need to do is take care of square-off. On mobile. This means a slightly higher level of engagement than the above avenues. Only slightly. Are you ok with that? Fine. Done.

In a flow, it’s all doable.

And, you remain focused.

Why all this?

Times demand it. You never know what might come in handy, and when.

Yeah, times are tough.

However, you are tougher.

To use Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s terminology, you are antifragile.

Let it come, then we’ll see…

Looking around for an opportunity?

Or letting one come?

Does it matter?

Is there a difference?

You bet!

When you’re looking around, you could be in a hurry. You want to get it over and done with.

Big mistake.

You are vulnerable.

Entry price will be expensive.

Your adversary feels your anxiety and jacks up entry level.

Quality? What quality? You’re in a hurry, right?

Don’t be.

Hurry spoils the curry.

Let the investment come to you.

It will.

Brokers are restless. They want to sell. They’ll knock at your doorstep once they know your funds situation. And, believe me, they won’t ask you about your funds situation. They’ll ask your banker. In fact, your banker could well be on retainer. He’ll make sure that high quality info ups his retainer fee. That’s how it works today. Don’t believe me? How come so many people have your cell number? Did you give it to them? No? Information is a commodity. It can be bought for a price.

So, wait.

Block your surplus funds as fixed deposits.

Get an overdraft going for one fixed deposit.

Delve into your normal activities.

Now you’re sitting pretty.

An opportunity comes.

It’s cr*p. Broker’s hoping you’ll bite into the nonsense being sold.

You tell the broker to buzz off. Lack of hurry gives you the clarity required to act like this.

Something lucrative comes along. Price is right. You overdraft on your FD. Yeah, it’s ok to pay the price for quality with margin of safety.

You can always fill in the overdrafted amount as new funds accumulate. The nominal interest paid for ODing is called opportunity fees. It’s chicken-feed. Just forget about it.

The best investments in life are worth waiting for.

Are You Still Trying to Find Yourself?

Yes?

It’s ok.

In fact, it’s even good.

“It’s the question that drives us (Neo)!”

The search is a struggle, sure.

Struggle means growth.

Keep growing.

Let the search be on.

As long as possible.

Result?

Maximal growth.

In your effort to find out who you are, you do many things.

You try stuff out.

You interact with lots of people.

There’s tremendous Karma-exchange.

You are in various situations.

You are tested many times.

You can draw upon all this experience.

It’s your been-there-done-that.

The growth-component this search has caused is your takeaway.

Keep making that takeaway bigger.

And, it’s the only real takeaway.

We’ll leave our cash behind.

Food will become poison after a certain age.

Growth will imprint upon our energy.

Growth is ours.

We’ll carry it forward, wherever we go.

This body, that body, no body, any body.