Tag Archives: #Deception

A Chronology of Independent Action

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The ideology…

…of a fear-monger..

…is to transform you into a weak hand.

Is that…

…fair…

…to you?

N.O.

But, that’s the whole idea. By hook, or by crook, you should feel the need to let go of your underlying.

Why?

Because greedy whales are waiting to swallow your very underlying up, easily, and cheap.

How has the ‘easily’ been achieved?

Big order comes into the market.

Meanwhile, fear-mongering has been at a peak. Social M has been puking it out like a volcano. Masses, already jittery, are doom-scrolling their way into submission.

Big order gets filled easily, without moving price much.

Move to next round. Get the scrip down another 10%. Launch another negative campaign. Tie in with an actual event showing weakness of the scrip or sector. Punish the scrip eight times, for the same reason, the one time that actual weakness in the scrip prevails, for that particular reason.

This is now standard.

Are you drowning in it?

Are you using your common sense?

Sheer…

…fundamentals.

Numbers.

Read.

Study.

Dig out.

Follow your research.

If at all, use the media to see in which direction it is leading.

What do the whales want to do?

What do they want you to do?

What are you going to do? Push counter to the wishes of the whales, right?

Right.

Stand your ground.

Do not sell out of fear.

There needs to be a numerical or a situational reason to sell. Fear should not be the reason. Fear needs to be taken out of the equation before scaling up. There are ways to do this. One needs to create an ensemble of circumstances, around oneself, that then take fear out of the equation. We have delved into this repeatedly in the past, and shall discuss the topic again, soon.

Buy into conviction.

Hell with what the bellowers are saying.

Look at your research, and look at the market. Nobody else exists. Get into a zone of tranquility and rhythm. Once your conviction fires, it fades all noise, like sunlight annihilating darkness.

So.

Research.

Market.

Match.

Fire.

That’s it.

Action.

This is the Time

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Shorting India…

…has now become an international norm.

Institutions are angry.

Tax surprises.

Massive corruption. At every step.

Slimy Indian counterparts. That’s us, right?

Lack of ability to understand how our system functions. If at all.

Prominent world leaders have written us off.

Soros et al are out with a…

…vengeance.

BooHoo.

Nobody likes us.

Which is ok.

Why?

It’s ok for now. As we get fully invested. No or minus hype factor, our shining ex-examples now shorted down to triple digits, should we start to cry and call it a day?

NO.

This is the time. To, slowly, get, fully, invested. Period.

When there will be hype, it will be accompanied by a hype-multiple. That’s exactly not the time to attempt full entry.

And there will be hype.

Where else is there ample growth?

Young, ‘hungry’, consuming, raring to go population?

You see, you can’t make robots consume. Humans are another story.

Where else is there ‘jugaad’?

This is the output Claude just gave for ‘jugaad’ : ‘At its core, jugaad is the art of getting something done with whatever is at hand—finding a clever, low-cost, unofficial fix rather than the “proper” (and usually expensive or unavailable) solution. It carries a sense of ingenuity under constraint: making do, hacking together, improvising a path through obstacles that a rulebook says shouldn’t be passable.’

Come on, dear shorting Western counterparts (of course I’m not shorting, I’m as long-long-long India as one can get), don’t you see it?

This is a thirty year story unfolding.

Time to get in, and stay in, is now.

Your quarter to quarter focus is so short-sighted, that even the optician doesn’t have appropriate glasses for you.

What can one say for the likes of Soros et al? Wrt the ideology that a country needs to be taken down financially, latest exploit Thailand, failed at India takedown attempt 1.0, did you, with three lending banks going down? Right? Either involved in current attempt or planning 2.0 currently, right?

Our sentiment is raked up. We will face. And overcome all shorters. In the long run.

More and more of the populace is moving its savings to its own markets.

Barely lets say 15% or less have demat accounts in our country.

Imagine the kind of money going in when this number tops 50%, which is the case in the countries shorting.

At current stand, our own very DII inflow, of which SIPs form a bulk, has managed current onslaught very reasonably. At 50%+, FII activity will not have any significant effect. It does now, not to a great extent, but to a visible one.

We are getting there.

Till then, there will be bumps.

Use the bumps.

In some years, one won’t get reasonable entry.

About that Crash

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Everybody…

…and their Uncles…

…have been yelling…

Crash. Crash. Crash. Crash.

We delved earlier. Ad nauseam. Last we spoke was about deception.

Crash always happens. Nature of markets. Inflation, then deflation, back to mean, first below mean, then to mean. Questions are : how much inflation first? How much deflation then? When does deflation begin? Does anybody know?

NO.

Model the answer?

Sure. It’s at best a…

…guesstimate…

…and please don’t pretend otherwise.

Champion modellers?

Many. TV’s brimming with champions. Some called dotcom. Others gold. Few called silver. Someone’s calling Nasdaq to -70% between 2 weeks and 2 years. Call, call, keep calling.

Meanwhile, we go about our business.

Rather than ruminate and drown in fear of a crash, we go about getting fully invested upon available opportunities.

What?

Why?

Isn’t it better to just save up for the bottom, and then pump it in.

Hmmm. Here, there’s been a shift in thinking at Magic Bull, over the years. At the bottom, here’s a numerically hypothetical scenario, your close one will be whispering in your ear something to the tune of oh-damnation-this-is-going-down-to-5000, and then the index bottoms out at 7749 or something, and reverses upwards like a F1 Red Bull Racing vehicle. Leaving all 5000ers and their bulk liquidity on hold. For re-reversal downwards. Doesn’t happen. At 10k, the 5000ers are losing it. At 15k, they can’t sleep. At 20k they go all in at an interim peak, after having spent half their liquid capital on vacations, splurging, expensive rubbish and whatdon’tyouhave.

Meanwhile, we’ve entered at select spots, and in select underlyings. Fundamentally sound. Zero debt or virtually debt-free. Free cashflow. Clean balance-sheets. Clean governmental audits. Skin in the game. Track record of navigating through disruption. Track record of shareholder-friendliness. Intelligent, diligent, industrious, vigilant people running sound businesses. This is the stuff multibaggers are made of.

Since we are in the game of bringing multibaggers into existence for us, what’s a few months of a good, hard crash to us? It will come and it will go. We are in a growth market in India. For the next three decades. Why are we getting paranoid of a few months when we will be notionally down, still going about our business, lapping up new opportunities which will have set up, not needing our invested funds for five years plus.

We’re not.

Ya, let the crash come.

Apart from the fact that segments across Indian markets are already down 50%+ after having been down 65%+ (crash in India has already happened to a noteworthy extent), a blowdown on the Nasdaq will probably knock Indian counterparts to their recent lows, perhaps another 10 to 15 to 20 % to boot, and then…

…watch the recovery baby.

It’ll leave you behind. You won’t be able to get in funds fast enough. You’ll be a combo of missed the bus and fomo and ruing it and damnation and sleepless nights because of your current fear of impending…

…crash…

…whenever it happens…

…as if 65% off from top for many, many stocks isn’t a crash already…

…and there you have it.

Crash? As in more crash? Fine. Let it come.

Meanwhile, we continue to go about our business. Till the crash. During the crash. After the few months of crash. Well into the V-shaped recovery. In our very own growth market. No need to look elsewhere.

Fading Deception

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Manipulating…

…the masses…

…towards something to be bought…

…or something to be sold…

…when whales are out to buy or sell, respectively, …

…is the bread and butter order of the day usual suspect chicanery that one can expect in the marketplace.

Unnerving?

Relax.

It’s normal.

How else would a whale feed on a school of fish?

Meaning, how would a big institution, or a many-big-institutions-conglomerate loosen the public’s hold on their holdings, to sell en masse if the big people are buying. Or, vice-versa, how else would the BigFats offload bulk onto the unsuspecting FatteningPigPublic, if the BigFats (BFs) are selling bulk?

Deception…

…is a handy tool that comes to hand.

Offloading Korea? Gold? Silver? Oil? Something AI with no fundamentals? Create the hype, reel after reel, rant after rant, roadshow after roadshow, till all and one’s Aunty believe the story, and when these latters start to act, BFs start offloading.

Buying Core Indian Tech? Lambast the country and the world with non stop ranting for 5 months and continuing. Flood its social media with panic reels about the collapse of Core Indian Tech with its debt-free-ness and its cash on the balance sheets, something whales want to own, and watch the underlyings crash, lapping them up as huge bargains.

Disturbed?

Manipulation is irritating.

However, it sets up opportunities.

Buying opportunities.

Selling opportunities.

It’s woven into the nature of markets.

Material and emotional life is about wheedling a few bucks out of someone, or keeping someone’s affection trapped with emotional blackmail.

Markets are a reflection of life itself, thus.

Why should one be alarmed, then, when short-term life-dealings are also found in the markets?

Any way out of this conundrum?

There is.

Remove the noise.

Move away from the one-month thought process, the three month one, the six month one, the one year one. Move longer term. 5 years. 10. 20. No noise now. Fundamentals will shine and translate into EPS spikes into price spikes. That’s all. That’s how markets work. This takes time though. Time enough for manipulation to come, do its work, die down as noise always does, and then the real game starts to play.

If you still can’t handle it, move onto some other play.

Or…

…teach yourself to stay long-term.

Best way to learn is to put your money on the line, hit, try, fall, get up, repeat, till you stop falling.

Breaking Free

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[ “I want to break free
I want to break free
I want to break free from your lies
You’re so self satisfied I don’t need you
I’ve got to break free
God knows, God knows I want to break free… ” – Queen].

How does one stay invested in the markets…

…despite all its deceptions and mind-games?

As indices creep up and up, our minds start playing tricks on us.

We seek excuses to cash out.

And, mostly, we…

…cash out.

Done?

NO.

We don’t want to be done.

Why?

There might come a day, when we wish we hadn’t cashed out.

Markets can stay overbought for ages.

Or not.

We don’t know.

No one knows.

Appreciation that counts sets in upon staying invested for the long-term.

How does one resolve this…

…conflict of mind versus reality?

One…

…breaks free.

Meaning?

Free up whatever has gone in.

Meaning?

Cash out the principal.

Leave the profit in the market.

This profit has cost no money.

Leaving it on the table is not a biggie.

Or is it?

It is…

…for most.

Those, for whom it isn’t, will benefit properly from compounding.

Now, what’s the danger?

No danger.

What’s on the table hasn’t cost you, so no danger.

Still, what would one fear?

No fear. What’s in is free, so no fear.

Let me paraphrase.

What’s the worst-case scenario from here?

Well, U-turn, and a big-time correction.

So what?

Use the correction to buy low, with the idea of freeing up more and more underlying(s) upon the high.

This way, size of one’s freed-up corpus keeps growing, and so does one’s exposure to compounding.

Wishing all very lucrative investing! 🙂