Tag Archives: #Mongerers

A Chronology of Independent Action

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The ideology…

…of a fear-monger..

…is to transform you into a weak hand.

Is that…

…fair…

…to you?

N.O.

But, that’s the whole idea. By hook, or by crook, you should feel the need to let go of your underlying.

Why?

Because greedy whales are waiting to swallow your very underlying up, easily, and cheap.

How has the ‘easily’ been achieved?

Big order comes into the market.

Meanwhile, fear-mongering has been at a peak. Social M has been puking it out like a volcano. Masses, already jittery, are doom-scrolling their way into submission.

Big order gets filled easily, without moving price much.

Move to next round. Get the scrip down another 10%. Launch another negative campaign. Tie in with an actual event showing weakness of the scrip or sector. Punish the scrip eight times, for the same reason, the one time that actual weakness in the scrip prevails, for that particular reason.

This is now standard.

Are you drowning in it?

Are you using your common sense?

Sheer…

…fundamentals.

Numbers.

Read.

Study.

Dig out.

Follow your research.

If at all, use the media to see in which direction it is leading.

What do the whales want to do?

What do they want you to do?

What are you going to do? Push counter to the wishes of the whales, right?

Right.

Stand your ground.

Do not sell out of fear.

There needs to be a numerical or a situational reason to sell. Fear should not be the reason. Fear needs to be taken out of the equation before scaling up. There are ways to do this. One needs to create an ensemble of circumstances, around oneself, that then take fear out of the equation. We have delved into this repeatedly in the past, and shall discuss the topic again, soon.

Buy into conviction.

Hell with what the bellowers are saying.

Look at your research, and look at the market. Nobody else exists. Get into a zone of tranquility and rhythm. Once your conviction fires, it fades all noise, like sunlight annihilating darkness.

So.

Research.

Market.

Match.

Fire.

That’s it.

Action.

Staring Facts in the Face

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Mongerers…

…are very, very busy.

After all, the target is in a corner.

Why not strike massively, and keep striking?

Punish the vanquished multiple times per misdemeanour.

Unfortunately, Core IT has gone quiet.

They’ve stopped caring about their share price.

Focus is now on intrinsic growth, not on quarter to quarter looking good attitude.

Pushed to the wall, the instinct to survive and regain lost ground is on all fours.

Forget about all this, is the aggressor AI actually so capable as to completely substitute the need for Core IT with regard to enterprise level programming, already?

No.

Perhaps in a year?

No.

5 years.

No.

10 years?

Possibly not.

20 years?

Possibly yes.

And, look at the mass reaction.

Masses believe they are ready to take over, like, yesterday.

Then comes the black box introduction.

AI companies are offering a black box to corporates, which will be their in-house AI, all data stays at home, let’s all bypass Core IT.

Does the data stay in the black box? Does it go anywhere? Does anybody know?

No.

Where is the trust coming from?

A bank entrusting its internal data to a black box, the big four doing the same, doctor’s records, hmmmm, not adding up. To a human under non-disclosure agreement? Plausible.

Departments being trained in corporates to become the tech arm?

It’s like an additional wing being added to a hospital, to handle book-keeping. Use the wing for expanding the hospital? What a preposterous idea! Let’s all become jack of all trades. Why even bother specializing. For that we have AI, right, to handle the specialist surgeries?

Panics almost always take to ridiculous trajectories.

This one has now cracked open genuinely clean-balance-sheeted free-cashflow-generating companies. Who have decided to take on all blows without responding. Probably want their CMPs to hit three digits and then some before announcing anything. They seem to have forgotten what buybacks are.

With nothing to go on, where do you stand, regarding Core IT?

Clean balance sheets.

Zero debt.

Track record of navigating through disruption.

Free cash flow being generated year upon year.

That’s enough.

Two choices.

Hold on to your holdings and look elsewhere currently, for investing.

Add on, as in average down.

Depends upon your risk profile, which option you choose.

Liquidation, for me, is not an option, given this :

Clean balance sheets.

Zero debt.

Track record of navigating through disruption.

Free cash flow being generated year upon year.

What am I doing?

Till lately I was averaging down.

Recently, I stopped averaging down in Core Tech. That’s a change in trajectory. Ya, have been investing elsewhere recently. Going to hold Core IT through, and accumulate further only above my buying averages for Core IT stocks. The exact change that’s happened is that now I need these stocks to speak out with their deeds and propel themselves to above my buying averages, before buying more. Might not happen soon. That’s fine. The reasons for comfort in holding are these :

Clean balance sheets.

Zero debt.

Track record of navigating through disruption.

Free cash flow being generated year upon year.

As long as these reasons exist, holding beyond while focusing elsewhere is the change that’s happened at Magic Bull.

Why, you ask? Why a change from the staunch attitude earlier?

It’s a matter of being in tune with one’s risk-profile. Till it wasn’t speaking up, I was comfortable averaging down. When it started to be bewildered by the goings on, I changed to being comfortable holding.

It’s ok. One can’t have the right opinion all the time. For a while, one can be wrong also. In those times that one feels one can be wrong also, making the switch from averaging down to only holding is ok, provided these exist :

Clean balance sheets.

Zero debt.

Track record of navigating through disruption.

Free cash flow being generated year upon year.