Fading Deception

Manipulating…

…the masses…

…towards something to be bought…

…or something to be sold…

…when whales are out to buy or sell, respectively, …

…is the bread and butter order of the day usual suspect chicanery that one can expect in the marketplace.

Unnerving?

Relax.

It’s normal.

How else would a whale feed on a school of fish?

Meaning, how would a big institution, or a many-big-institutions-conglomerate loosen the public’s hold on their holdings, to sell en masse if the big people are buying. Or, vice-versa, how else would the BigFats offload bulk onto the unsuspecting FatteningPigPublic, if the BigFats (BFs) are selling bulk?

Deception…

…is a handy tool that comes to hand.

Offloading Korea? Gold? Silver? Oil? Something AI with no fundamentals? Create the hype, reel after reel, rant after rant, roadshow after roadshow, till all and one’s Aunty believe the story, and when these latters start to act, BFs start offloading.

Buying Core Indian Tech? Lambast the country and the world with non stop ranting for 5 months and continuing. Flood its social media with panic reels about the collapse of Core Indian Tech with its debt-free-ness and its cash on the balance sheets, something whales want to own, and watch the underlyings crash, lapping them up as huge bargains.

Disturbed?

Manipulation is irritating.

However, it sets up opportunities.

Buying opportunities.

Selling opportunities.

It’s woven into the nature of markets.

Material and emotional life is about wheedling a few bucks out of someone, or keeping someone’s affection trapped with emotional blackmail.

Markets are a reflection of life itself, thus.

Why should one be alarmed, then, when short-term life-dealings are also found in the markets?

Any way out of this conundrum?

There is.

Remove the noise.

Move away from the one-month thought process, the three month one, the six month one, the one year one. Move longer term. 5 years. 10. 20. No noise now. Fundamentals will shine and translate into EPS spikes into price spikes. That’s all. That’s how markets work. This takes time though. Time enough for manipulation to come, do its work, die down as noise always does, and then the real game starts to play.

If you still can’t handle it, move onto some other play.

Or…

…teach yourself to stay long-term.

Best way to learn is to put your money on the line, hit, try, fall, get up, repeat, till you stop falling.

FOMO anyone?

Sure, buy…

Where were you some days back?

Buying was a breeze, for quite a while. 

Lately, as in, since Tuesday, it’s not so much a breeze. 

Pharmaceuticals are already up to their pre-crisis prices, and IT needs to recover another 10 – 15% and it’s there. 

If this trend continues for another week, we could be talking about an interim recovery. 

Prices haven’t recovered fully, you would argue, right?

Fine. That’s a valid perspective, in the event that you are a long-term investor.

What’s your compromise?

You won’t be getting full margin of safety at these prices. 

Also, on these up days, there’s so much upwards pressure that the bid-ask spread squeezes you generously to the upside. 

A few days back both these avenues were reversed. 

Still want to buy?

Wait for a big down day.

Margin of safety will be slightly better, and downward pressure will let you buy on limit, lucratively set to harness the downward momentum. 

How do we know that a big down day is coming, in the first place?

We don’t.

What if there aren’t any more big down days in the near future?

Wonderful.

Lock your spare funds away safely, and wait patiently for the next shock. 

Waves operate in shocks. 

This is the age of shocks. 

Buy in the aftermath of a shock. 

What if one isn’t able to buy anymore?

Even better.

Lock in whatever you’ve bought, and divert your attention to other activities.

Like?

Trade.

What?

Currency.

Oil.

Bullion.

Energy.

Industrial metals. 

Do something that takes away your attention from your locked in equity.

Why?

That way you will be able to sit without spoiling your compounding that will happen while you sit. 

Just forget about FOMO. Live in the now. Have your job cut out. Wait for the right conditions to appear. Then act.