Tag Archives: #DoomNixers

About that Crash

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Everybody…

…and their Uncles…

…have been yelling…

Crash. Crash. Crash. Crash.

We delved earlier. Ad nauseam. Last we spoke was about deception.

Crash always happens. Nature of markets. Inflation, then deflation, back to mean, first below mean, then to mean. Questions are : how much inflation first? How much deflation then? When does deflation begin? Does anybody know?

NO.

Model the answer?

Sure. It’s at best a…

…guesstimate…

…and please don’t pretend otherwise.

Champion modellers?

Many. TV’s brimming with champions. Some called dotcom. Others gold. Few called silver. Someone’s calling Nasdaq to -70% between 2 weeks and 2 years. Call, call, keep calling.

Meanwhile, we go about our business.

Rather than ruminate and drown in fear of a crash, we go about getting fully invested upon available opportunities.

What?

Why?

Isn’t it better to just save up for the bottom, and then pump it in.

Hmmm. Here, there’s been a shift in thinking at Magic Bull, over the years. At the bottom, here’s a numerically hypothetical scenario, your close one will be whispering in your ear something to the tune of oh-damnation-this-is-going-down-to-5000, and then the index bottoms out at 7749 or something, and reverses upwards like a F1 Red Bull Racing vehicle. Leaving all 5000ers and their bulk liquidity on hold. For re-reversal downwards. Doesn’t happen. At 10k, the 5000ers are losing it. At 15k, they can’t sleep. At 20k they go all in at an interim peak, after having spent half their liquid capital on vacations, splurging, expensive rubbish and whatdon’tyouhave.

Meanwhile, we’ve entered at select spots, and in select underlyings. Fundamentally sound. Zero debt or virtually debt-free. Free cashflow. Clean balance-sheets. Clean governmental audits. Skin in the game. Track record of navigating through disruption. Track record of shareholder-friendliness. Intelligent, diligent, industrious, vigilant people running sound businesses. This is the stuff multibaggers are made of.

Since we are in the game of bringing multibaggers into existence for us, what’s a few months of a good, hard crash to us? It will come and it will go. We are in a growth market in India. For the next three decades. Why are we getting paranoid of a few months when we will be notionally down, still going about our business, lapping up new opportunities which will have set up, not needing our invested funds for five years plus.

We’re not.

Ya, let the crash come.

Apart from the fact that segments across Indian markets are already down 50%+ after having been down 65%+ (crash in India has already happened to a noteworthy extent), a blowdown on the Nasdaq will probably knock Indian counterparts to their recent lows, perhaps another 10 to 15 to 20 % to boot, and then…

…watch the recovery baby.

It’ll leave you behind. You won’t be able to get in funds fast enough. You’ll be a combo of missed the bus and fomo and ruing it and damnation and sleepless nights because of your current fear of impending…

…crash…

…whenever it happens…

…as if 65% off from top for many, many stocks isn’t a crash already…

…and there you have it.

Crash? As in more crash? Fine. Let it come.

Meanwhile, we continue to go about our business. Till the crash. During the crash. After the few months of crash. Well into the V-shaped recovery. In our very own growth market. No need to look elsewhere.

Only Misses for the DoomNixers

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Stadiums full.

This is what we see at the FIFA World Cup.

Gloom and doom about no one travelling to watch…

…seems to be nixed.

Are any doomsdayers amounting to anything?

AI taking over and slaying all else?

It’s a collab. No one’s taking over anything completely.

US markets were supposed to crash…

…like yesterday. And with that, the world.

Whenever a full blown crash does happen, it will very probably be at a time when most shorters are exhausted, read in big losses and retired hurt, didn’t want to use the word bankrupt.

AI is supposed to lead the ‘bubble burst’.

Has AI just smelt some monetization in collab with the back-offices of the world?

Back-offices have the capability to hold the system up on the back of their picks and shovels work, which, obviously, DoomNixers ‘nix’ themselves upon. You see, it’s not glamorous enough. They didn’t see it at all thus, and stumbled and fell.

Here’s another one : No one can beat the effthurteefiive. True? Hmmm. We saw what we saw.

Attackers felt they would bring the opponent down over the weekend. Opponents, fighting for their lives, seem to have emerged better than their attackers.

When one fights for one’s life, one fights with every ounce of resource and every joule of energy.

The Dean at his Univ advised Max Planck to study Music instead of Physics, since he felt that every meaningful thing in Physics had been discovered already.

Max Planck went on to found a whole new branch of sciences. Quantum Physics. On which anything and everything today is based.

There’s this thing about optimists. They believe in their systems, their hard work. Their ability to fight for their lives. For their systems. For the passing on of their legacies.

Max Planck fought for the entire field of Physics, and what a legacy he’s passed on. Conventional Physics builds the framework, and Quantum allows us to traverse the Universe.

Core Tech is fighting for its life. Pushed to the wall, it will devise a way to emerge, as a monetizing handholder for AI to be implemented. It’s fought for its life many times before and has emerged victorious, and very lucratively.

There are two paths emerging here, in the example with Core Tech.

Path one – DoomNix. Pronounce it dead. Invest elsewhere, with expensive valuations.

Path two – research. Find companies that are transforming with the times, with clean balance sheets and free cashflows. Invest in these, as valuations are very reasonable currently.

One can even follow both paths MINUS the doomnixing. Meaning that one takes punts in expensive companies, no idea how that will pan out in the very long-term, and one also invests in very reasonably priced and transforming Core Tech, with clean balance sheets and free cashflows. This will give a decent return in the very long-term.

We leave the doomnixing to the pessimists, nay-sayers, lacking-in-hopers, non-believers in themselves and in good systems – this breed will keep collecting misses in life.

Having expunged the breed from our eco-systems, we stride ahead with our very long-term bullish view in our growth market, since the essence of sitting on a compounding portfolio for multiple decades is…

…an optimist mindset.