Author Archives: Uday Nath

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About Uday Nath

I'm motivated. I like to out-perform. I only strive for the best.

Less is More

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Fill your plate.

Work.

Go all out.

Nobody’s asking you to work less.

Research.

Hit it with your best shot.

Do quality work.

Work with the best tools.

Enjoy your work…

…so much so, that time ceases to exist.

Yeah, that means you’ve found your calling.

However, connect less to live Mrs. Market.

Here, less is more.

Keep her away as much as possible when she’s live.

Only connect live when you really, really have to.

What are you achieving?

Minimal bogging down live market forces.

You’re away from the pandemonium, the confusion.

You’ve set your self up brilliantly, to think clearly.

Now, gather your thoughts, gather your research.

You get into the Zone.

You have a purpose.

It can be anything. A market instruction. An instrument alteration. A structural change. A query. A test. A probe. A check. Something small. Something big.

With your purpose right before your eyes, connect live.

Solve your purpose.

Disconnect.

Relax.

Let remnant market forces leave you, yeah, let them dissipate.

Do some other stuff for a while.

Then, when you’re ready, get back to your research.

If you’re not ready after a while, call it a day.

Go for a swim. Or something.

Take that –>@&%# Mr. Peer Pressure

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Dear Mr. PP,

I don’t give in to you, never have, never will.

You’re not that important.

I don’t spend my time thinking about you.

I don’t respect any entity without a backbone, and you certainly don’t have one.

I’ve met you many times.

At first, I felt you, and was taken aback. You wanted me to do something I didn’t wish to do. You were strong.

I was stronger.

When you don’t know anything about the reputation of your opponent, frankly, you don’t give a d*m*. You fight. Till you fall or till the other fellow backs down.

I won my first head to head with you. Thank my stars.

After that I found out who you were. Yeah, who was it exactly that I didn’t succumb to?

After I’d grown up and all, and fully realized your devastation potential, I always leaned back on my first head to head. I mean, you were beatable. Period.

Yeah, I was lucky to have beaten you first up. It’s been a huge psychological advantage.

I’ve carried over this advantage into my market life.

Take a hike, Mr. PP.

[As far as market related activities go, I follow and advocate an unbiased, singular and customized path which doesn’t follow any crowd or any myths as such.

This path certainly does not let me invest under any kind of pressure.

Where there’s pressure, there are vested interests.

Please beware of investments which don’t suit your risk profile and are touted to quench vested interests].

Breathing Time

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Ideas…

… make the world spin.

At the core of any genius achievement is at first… an idea.

Ideas don’t come for free.

A certain degree of evolution translates into a corresponding idea.

Evolution costs.

Pain is a precursor to evolution.

Not every good idea is lucrative. Lots of bad ideas emerge too.

We’re concerned about sifting through the noise.

A potential candidate emerges, let’s say.

You feel you’ve got something.

What’s the next course of action?

Sit.

Don’t jump.

Let it breathe.

It will either continue to breathe, becoming stronger day by day, until it is so strong, that it coerces you into expression. Or, if it’s weak, it’ll die. It might even transform… … into something stronger.

Let the idea make you want to jump. Yeah, let it become that strong, inside of you. You’ve been sitting, remember?

Why?

Why this whole rigmarole?

You want a high success translation percentage.

Why not? It’s human nature.

And that’s why.

Strongly evolved ideas translate more easily into systems of success.

Even if you don’t remember me, remember this line just above.

Thanks.

Cross-Section Through a Performing System

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You’ve struggled, as a result of which you’ve developed a system. 

This is your system. it is invaluable to your market play. It performs. 

Your system comprises of structures.

A structure takes something to emerge. It doesn’t come for free. You need to pay for it with sweat, losses and tears. Once it emerges, it is yours to incorporate. 

You know its value. You’re not going to let it go… …unless a better structure emerges, which makes its predecessor obsolete. 

Normally, it doesn’t come to that. Structures don’t become obsolete just like that, and hence, you rarely let a structure go once it has emerged.

What you do is the following. You incorporate the new structure into your system by fine-tuning old and new, making them work in tandem.

Your system has become richer by one structure, although the combination of old and new outdoes 1 + 1 = 2 easily. 

Sometimes, a new structure starts to emerge, and blinds you. You want to plunge in. You want to raise the required funds by sacrificing your existing and lucrative structures. Happens sometimes. 

DON’T.

Yeah. 

Don’t sacrifice your existing structure. 

If the lure of the new structure is so great, well, then borrow if you have to against your old structures, but for heavens sake don’t sacrifice them. 

Squeeze your old structure till it coughs, but don’t kill it. 

Because you’ve squeezed it by borrowing against it to finance the implementation of your fancied new structure, well, you’ve been able to then implement this fancied new structure. 

Fine. 

You’ve got what you wanted. 

Now loosen the stranglehold upon your older structure to prevent it from dying. 

Yeah, bring it back. Revive it. Pay back what you borrowed against it from your ongoing cash-flow, till the complete debt is nullified, so that your old structure breathes easy again and resumes yielding you money. 

Voilà – now you have two structures adding to your income, presuming that the newer structure that emerged was ripe enough at birth to start yielding income immediately. 

That’s how you do it. 

What’s the Frequency, Flipkart?

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Hmmm, a zero-profit company…

In fact, a loss making company…

Do you get the logic?

People are probably seeing an Amazon.com in the making.

Amazon exists in a highly infrastructure-laden country with systems.

Can we say the same about us?

As of now – no.

Are we on the trajectory?

Sometimes yes, sometimes no. It’s been five steps forward and then three back till now.

What’s all the hype about?

Institutions want to make money during the ride.

Whether the ride culminates into an Amazon.com is irrelevant for institutions.

Public opinion acknowledges the ride.

That’s enough for institutions.

They’ll ride to a height and exit, irrespective of any MAT or what have you.

While exiting, they’ll hive off the hot potato to pig-investors in the secondary market, post IPO.

Hopefully, a valuation is calculable by then. Even the PE ratio needs earnings to spit out a valuation. No earnings means no divisor, and anything divided by zero is not defined.

Keep your wits about you. Follow performance. Follow earnings. Follow bearable debt. If you see all three, a sound management will already be in place. Then, look for value. Lastly, seek a technical entry.

Don’t follow hype blindly.

Cheers! 🙂

All I Need – Is One Look In Your Eyes…

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All I need is the rhythm divine
Lost in the music
Your heart will be mine
All I need is to look in your eyes
Viva la musica
Say you’ll be mine


With due respect to Enrique Iglesias, to whom the above lyrics belong, he’s not the only one. 

We all need motivation. 

Many of us are self-motivated. 

What drives us from within?

A goal.

Sometimes, we stolper. Our drive takes a hit. Self-motivation dips. 

Reasons could be many. Sheer exhaustion, repeated failure, being a square box in a round hole for far too long, what have you and blah blah blah. 

We’re not bothered about the reason here. We’re bothered about the fact. Sometimes, we get demotivated. We stop performing. 

Who needs to step in here?

Our closest ones.

Yeah, they live closest to us, and if they possess an iota of sensitivity, well, they should sense our emotional graph going down. 

Mostly, they do. And, upon recognition, they step in. We feel wanted, loved, and our motivational levels start to go up again. 

Sometimes, our closest one is not sensitive enough, for whatever reason.

Maybe we’re too “strong” to let it show. Maybe our closest one has other, bigger issues to deal with. Whatever. That’s not the important rumination.

What’s the important question here?

Yes, how do we get it back? Without a hand to hold. This one’s big. 

No hand to hold – whoahh – it’s tough. 

Is there a way out?

Do we change our closest one?

Is it that simple?

Sometimes, children are in the equation. Changing isn’t an option we’re discussing here. 

Firstly, we need to shut down on this one want from our closest one. 

Ok, now what?

Motivations’s got to come – from within. It’s a funny thing. It just does. Wait for it. To come from within. 

It needs a catalyst – an event – a trigger – the crossing of an activation barrier – something like that. 

Wait for the catalyst to occur and have effect. 

What do you do meanwhile?

Other things. 

Chant. Meditate. Travel. Play with your child. Take up a temporary assignment elsewhere. Do stuff. Life’s big. So many things are happening. Do something – else.

The catalyst occurs. 

Motivation starts to ooze. 

You’re back in business. 

You didn’t break your sacred environment. 

Maybe your closest one will realise, and will be sensitive next time.

On the other hand, maybe he or she won’t. 

Does it bother you now? You’ve discovered a way out after all.

It probably pinches just a bit. 

Let it. Things could have been much, much worse, which they’re not, so count your blessings, and just let it flow. 

🙂

Loneliness of the Successful Investor

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Walked alone?

No?

Please try.

Success needs original ideas. Original ideas need solitude.

Successful investors walk alone.

Sometimes, they’re lonely.

Investing is more about sitting than action.

Sitting around inactively breeds loneliness.

The antidote is activity – other activity. Not market-related.

Successful investors do other stuff to tackle this loneliness.

Buffett plays poker.

Branson is breaking into some virgin territory or the other.

Gates is busy souping up his home.

Trump trumps.

Jindal plays polo.

Mallya’s sole focus has been other stuff, so much so, that he’s become unsuccessful.

Mahindra loves to tweet.

Tata walks his dog.

Sachin watches Wimbledon live.

Mr. Bean is seen on the F1 circuit.

You get the gist.

These people follow one or more “other” activity / activities so passionately, that they forget about their main activity for a while.

Their system recuperates. Time is bridged to the next instance of main-frame action. While traversing this bridge, body, mind and soul have recuperated. System is fresh, ready and waiting for new action.

When you’re walking alone next time, you’ll be able to deal easily with any loneliness on the path.

One might make moderate returns, investing with the masses.

To outperform, though, one needs to walk alone.

The successful investor realizes that he can’t get out of this one.

Therefore, the successful investor creates a way to still come out winning.

This is human capital at peak performance!

What’s the Intrinsic Value of Inflation – FOR YOU?

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Pundits taught about Inflation.

It ate into you.

Did it discriminate?

Nope?

Did life discriminate?

Or was it your Karma?

So you made it to HNI, without perhaps knowing what HNI stands for.

You’re a high networth investor, bully for you.

Here’s a secret. You’re not really bothered too much about Inflation.

What?

Yeah. Don’t bother too much about it. 

Why?

It’s eating into you, given, right. 

By default, you need to look into something that’s eating into you, right?

Well, right, and then, well, wrong. 

You had a hawk-eye on inflation till you made it to HNI. Well done, correct approach.

Now, you’re gonna just use your energies for other purposes, for example for asset allocation, fund-parking patience, opportunity scouting, due diligence – to name just a few avenues. 

Why aren’t you using even a minuscule portion of your energies to bother about the effects of inflation?

Well, simply because it’s not worth the effort – FOR YOU – now that you’re an HNI. 

Sure, inflation will eat into you. However, the way you handle your surplus funds will defeat its effects and then some, many times over. Use your energies to maximise this particular truth. 

What makes you an HNI? Surplus funds to invest, right?

Surplus sits. 

It waits for opportunities. 

An entry at an opportune moment gives maximum returns.

You’ve sifted through the Ponzis. You’ve isolated multi-bagger investments. You’re waiting for the right entry. 

Meanwhile, old Infleee is eating a few droplets of your wad. Let it. Focus on what we’ve discussed. A multi-bagger investment entered into at the sweet-spot could well make ten times of what old Infleee eats up. 

Go for it. 

Hanging On to a Structure

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How does one build a wall?

Brick upon brick, right?

One doesn’t usually take out the brick two layers below to use elsewhere. Common-sense. 

Why should it be any different while building a rock-solid portfolio?

Well, it’s not. 

Those who feel it is will soon realise… that it’s not.

You set up an investment.

You then see it through to its logical conclusion. 

You don’t let it go in between… …unless we’re talking about a life and death situation.

Apart from this one caveat, you just don’t let the investment go. You see it through… to its logical conclusion. Period. 

Meanwhile, other opportunities arise. 

You are tempted to get into them. That’s what opportunities are for. 

Now you need to be creative. 

You’re not letting one structure go for the sake of creating another. 

You are going to keep the former and create the latter. 

How?

Dig into your reserves.

How were the reserves created?

They were created by former structures that were seen through to their logical conclusion. These contributed along their paths and upon their culmination. 

Reserves not enough?

Borrow agains a former structure. 

Don’t borrow big. Borrowed amount should not be big enough to harm the former structure, but big enough to couple with your reserves and see your new structure through. 

Still not enough? Requirement for new structure not being met?

Let the new structure go. 

Opportunities keep coming and going. No one’s got a copyright on opportunities. 

Save up for the next one. 

Brick by brick, remember. Without sacrificing the bricks below. 

🙂

The Thin Line

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Have you met the thin line…

…  between ambition and greed?

You see it. You want to cross it without wanting to cross it.

What stops you?

A deadly sin is… deadly. If you’re sensitive enough, you do fear the effects of a deadly sin.

Greed can ruin. It has the capacity to upset an apple-cart.

Sometimes you want something that extra much.

Ambition turns into over-ambition.

You get your something.

You’re a go-getter.

You become over-confident.

You forget your basics.

Next few times around, you cross the thin line repeatedly. The high is addictive. Soon, you’re crossing…

… without even knowing.

Yeah, the vicious cycle outlined above has made you insensitive. You’ve stepped over, don’t even know it, and on you’re going. You’re blinded by greed.

It’s not happened overnight. First the thin line beckoned you to come back. Your over-ambition spurred you on a few steps more. A few more steps wouldn’t harm, right?

Wrong.

You’re not sensitive anymore. You’ve lost normal vision. You’re greedy for your goal. You’re not sticking to your basic tenets. You’re not playing safe anymore. You’ve started to even play with your safety moat, in order to achieve an even bigger goal.

You’ve set yourself up to fall… big.

If you do, I hope for two things.

First up, I hope you don’t fall too big, and that you can get up again.

Second, I hope that this fall is your last one, and that it has made you sensitive again.

Sensitive?

Towards what?

Yeah, sensitive towards the thin line.

The Price of Value-Addition

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Does value-addition carry a price-tag?

You bet.

What, you thought you could add value… for free?

Naehhhh.

Good things in life generally don’t come for free.

One doesn’t value the best of things that are free. One treats them cheaply… because they’re free.

In the marketplace, free-kinda stuff always comes with a catch, or a trap.

Ponzis use high-return free money ad-tags to lure pig-investors.

I generally steer clear of free-kinda stuff, anywhere and anyhow in life.

Don’t be afraid to pay (well) for value-addition.

By adding value, you’re doing yourself a huge favour. You’re creating an asset that will generate towards your corpus on auto-pilot. Why should something like this be coming for free?

In fact, why should something like this not be appropriately expensive?

I Don’t Want the Cancer

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Are you hurt?

A.

Do you want the cancer?

B.

I do get hurt. Yeah, things hurt me. I’m an emotionally penetrable human being.

Fine. That’s me.

What I definitely don’t want is option B.

Who wants option B?

Can’t think of anyone.

Who gets option B?

Many.

But who?

Those who can’t forget the hurt. Yeah, people who’re unable to move on.

To forget the hurt and move on, simultaneously saving ourselves from the cancer, we need to forgive.

Someone’s misbehaved. Hurt you. Are you going to ruin your future days? No.

Forgive. Forget. Move on.

Just remove the mould in which cancer can potentially set in.

What makes you think it’s different in the markets?

A loss is a hurt.

Need I say more?

You can do the math.

A Secret Ingredient for Equity-People

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Racking your brain about how to make Equity work?

Don’t.

Two words work here. 

Be passive. 

Learn to sit. 

Let’s say you’ve gotten all your basics right.

Company is great. Management is sound. Multiple is low. Debt is nil. Model looks promising. Yield is note-worthy. Technicals allow entry, blah blah blah…

Then what?

Yeah, be still. Learn to sit. 

What are the prequisites for sitting?

You need to not need the stash you’ve put in, at least for a long while. 

You also need to get your investment out of your primary focus. 

For that, your day needs to be full…of other main-frame activities. 

Make Equity a bonus for yourself, not a main-course. That’s how it’ll work for you. That’s the secret ingredient. 

How to… … is stated above.

Why to? Aha.

For it to work, fine, but why the sleeping partner approach?

Human capital needs time to show results. 

That’s why you’re in Equity, right, for human capital? The rest is ordinary stuff, but human capital is irreplaceable. Human capital works around inflation. One doesn’t need to say anything more. 

You’ve got your work all cut out.

Get going, what are you waiting for? 

Finding Structure Within

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You are you. He is he. She is she. I am I. It is it. 

Even if the above is the only thing that you carry home from this space, you’re done already. 

Move on then, with your life, because you’ve understood something big. 

If not, do please read on. 

You are not I. I am not you. He is not she. She is not he. That’s it. 

Here’s the next biggie.

Those who come into funds need to know how to manage them. Period. 

Do what you want. Run umpteen miles. Put up a million facades. Muster up all the drama you’re capable of. After that you’ll come to this conclusion …

 … that nobody else is more capable of managing your funds than you yourself. 

Why?

Because you are you. You know yourself best. A third party is firstly (realistically) not bothered about knowing you, and secondly is only capable of seeping into a minuscule portion of you, if he or she makes the effort. Forget about third parties. 

So you realize you need to manage your own funds, what then?

Jump into the water.

While your corpus is small, make mistakes. Learn from them. That’s college. Tuition fees.

Recognize your strengths. Play to them. Pulverize your weaknesses after identifying them.

Then come the structures, from within. These are your structures. They’ll come from inside of you. 

There’s you, and there’s the battle-field. The two are face to face. It’s a do or die situation. You go into reflex-action mode. Your systems start to function at full capacity. That’s when structures emerge.

Yeah, structures need an activation barrier to emerge. 

There’s a protective structure. It’s your protective structure. It guides you to build your moat. It protects your family. 

Then there’s your post-protection bulk-game structure. It guides you towards building up your innings without the worries of basic bread and butter. 

Lastly, there’s your multiplication structure. It chalks out high-reward-high-risk strategies, tweaks them towards maximum possible safety, and tells you where to put that minute percentage of your corpus with the intent of achieving extra-ordinary gains. 

Allow such structures to emerge. Embrace them. Innovate. Improvise. Achieve. Educate.

Go for the jugular. 

Who are You?

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Who am I?

Do I know?

Am I trying to know?

Is this an important question for me?

What’s my path?

Where am I on this path?

What are my basic goals in life?

What are my weaknesses?

What am I doing to make these my strengths?

What motivates me to perform?

Does my environment enhance my performance?

Or does it hamper me?

If it does, what am I doing about it?

Am I tweaking my environment?

Yeah, am I manipulative enough?

Am I content with the hampering?

Why should I be content with the hampering?

Because it makes me grow, as in evolve?

Maybe.

Who are you?

What are your defining questions?

How do you unravel?

Ultimately, what is your risk profile?

Who are you… sure… very valid question.

Why?

It’s the basic precursor question with regard to another important question.

Who are you as far as finance is concerned?

In the field of finance, you need to know your risk-profile, and you need to have a defined meta-game-plan.

Defined as per who you are.

Uniquely, for yourself.

Bye 🙂

The Line of Least Resistance

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We stand on the shoulders of giants.

I’m not guilty about using their work and ideas.

Firstly, obviously, I’m going to quote them. Then, I plan to achieve something new, whilst standing on their shoulders. Those will be my two pennies, and feel free, people, to use my two pennies copiously.

The phrase “line of least resistance” was first coined by none other than Mr. Jesse Livermore. He lost a fortune finding it, then won a fortune following it, and again lost a lot of money at times when he ignored his own discovery.

Pioneers have it tough.

Carving out a new path is perilous, to say the least.

So, what is the line of least resistance?

Imagine yourself to be poking and shoving around, looking for a clear path in the dark. Something gives. You push further, and discover that you can easily traverse the path that emerges, without stumbling. For a while.

Let’s just remain there.

You are travelling along seamlessly on this path you’ve discovered after poking and shoving around.

Freeze.

Now imagine the price of an underlying. Any underlying, that tends to trend. GBP vs USD would be a great example.

Price pokes and shoves (at resistance), as it tries to break out.

Once it has broken out, you need to understand why it has broken out.

It is not encountering enough resistance to make it stop.

It’ll keep moving along this line of least resistance, till there develops sufficient new resistance that is enough to make price stop, or even reverse.

That’s a price move. You want to be part of it. Thus, you look for it. The pokes and the shoves are your entry tries. One of your entries will chance upon the line of least resistance. You’ll experience a clear move, which you’re a part of. The move will continue till resistance builds up again.

The idea, obviously, is to stay with the move to make up for failed entries and then some.

You stay in the trade till there is enough resistance to make the underlying reverse more than your threshold.

That would be your trigger stop.

When a concept is broken down to its absolute basics, it becomes easy to understand.

Dealing with “Situation Change”

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When does a situation change?

For example, one could move on to a new field in finance.

Or, a particular goal could have been achieved. Now, one’s approach is supposed to incorporate predefined changes for financial strategy post goal-accomplishment.

Family dynamics could be responsible for situation changes too.

Sure, health. Never underestimate the power of health. It can make you, and it can break you.

Emotion. Fell in love? Going crazy? Outbursts? Hot flashes? Preggers?

Logistics? Moving? New girl-friend in New York?

Night duty?

Looking after your parents in their old age?

Wife wants to party all the time? Lack of sleep?

Promotion? Demotion? Fired? Jobless? Suddenly self-employed?

Gone single? Date-circuit? Got married? Had a kid?

Situation changes come to all. Not once, but many times in life.

Why are we talking about them?

They have an effect on our financial strategy. That’s suffices.

I’ll tell you how I deal with situation change. You can then BODMAS your way to your own approach, using my approach as a broad outline.

My first approach is to put on auto-pilot as many of my financial activity as possible. Going paper-less helps. Trusted auto-bill-pay channels are assets. Fixed-income generators with auto annual-alerts give financial security with zero involvement. SIPs and dividend pay-ins are further examples of having gone auto.

Then I look at what is left. What has not yet gone on auto-pilot? Can it? Ever? If there’s a chance, I go for it. For example, I’m currently developing a software robot to automate my forex trading.

Lastly, I size up what is not pushable into auto-mode. Do I want to keep it? Can I do without it? Weigh, weigh, weigh, scrap A, scrap B, C is something I just have to do, manually, period, so keep C. Eventually, C, G, P, X and Z are five manual financial activities I keep, having scrapped the others (that refused to go on auto) out of my life, since I didn’t consider them burningly essential. C, G, P, X and Z are the ones that’ll weigh me down when my situation changes. I’ve kept them on doable levels. Some are on semi-auto but do require manual intervention. The others are fully manual.

My situation changes.

My auto-pilot activities continue their smooth run. They are my assets, my stars.

P, X and Z are on semi-auto. I barely gather the energy to look into their manual aspects, just about managing to keep them going with reasonable results.

C and G are bogging me down. Can’t keep up. No energy. No motivation. Situation change has drained me. Relentlessly, I try. C has turned a loser. Beginning to feel sick. I shut down C. Losses.

G is sucking me out. Emotionally. It’s a winner, though. Can’t keep up. Can I turn it into semi-auto? It required constant monitoring till it started winning big. I’ll still need to feed in my stop daily. That’s the manual part. I stop looking at G. Problem with equity orders is that your stop has little technical value overnight. A new day requires renewed stop-considerations. Ok, five minutes daily for G. Open terminal, set trigger-stop 9.99% below opening price, close terminal, don’t look left or right, done.

Phew.

Save health. Don’t fall sick.

If sick, rest.

Recuperate.

Regain health.

Get used to new situation.

Normalize.

Gear up for next situation change, whatever it is, whenever it comes.

Gear up now.

The Cycle of Flow

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Life is riddled with cycles.

Words flow. Then they stop. Lulls can be long.

Doesn’t bother me anymore.

I know that when the flow starts, I’ll be there, milking it completely. You’ve seen me do it. I’ve been amazed myself by the sheer force of flow.

I’m happiest in full flow. At this time, I don’t believe in containment.

Lulls are good too. They happen for a reason. Especially if your situation changes. Your system is busy getting accustomed to the new situation. It is accumulating and assimilating. Respect its silence. Conserve your energy. Let it do its work. Don’t try to get busy just for the sake of feeling busy. You don’t have to prove anything to anyone. This is your unique game. No one else is playing your particular game. Wait for your system to finish assimilating. Let it use whatever energy is available. You don’t waste this energy.

At some stage, your system will be ready to disseminate.

It’ll give signs.

Flow will ignite.

Words will emerge.

Many of us block at this stage.

We’re afraid of embarrassment. We don’t want to look silly. We hate awkward situations.

Fine. Block. Fall sick. Your wish. Blocked flow turns toxic inside.

Why do you behave like an unevolved j#ck@#s?

The human being has come to evolve. Devolution is not your purpose. Evolution is.

If you wish to evolve, don’t block.

Just like you respected the silence…

… now, respect the flow.

Can I Really Really Really Do Without Fundamentals?

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I like to trade without a bias. 

Lack of bias means freedom… 

… freedom to think independently…

… not falling prey to another person’s opinion…

… which then allows you to listen to your system…

… trade identification…

…setup demarcation…

…trigger-entry…

…trade triggered…

…trade management…

… trigger-exit…

… exited.

That’s it, move on to the next trade. 

News gives me a bias. 

No news. 

You know what else gives me a bias?

Fundamentals. 

I don’t wish to look at fundamentals. 

If my eyes are seeing a setup in the EuroDollar, I would like to take it without the nagging thought of “what will happen if Scotland says NO or YES”.

I don’t want to care about inflation numbers, or job figures, or industrial output or what have you. 

I mean…can I just …do it?

Meaning, can I just do away with fundamentals, and focus on technicals only, which is my area of specialization?

Sometimes, I get a little unsure. 

I start looking around. 

How are others doing it? The experts, that is. 

My uncertainty gets fanned a little more, when I see experts not really ignoring fundamentals, even though they might be specialized in technicals. Hmmmm. I’m still not happy looking into fundamentals. I mean, why should I take time-out from my strong suit, and devote it to my very weak suit?

No, I decide. I’m really not going to look at fundamentals. 

What’s the worst that could happen?

Let me just see if the worst that could happen is bearable.

Ok…I ID a trade…demarcate a setup…and the trade goes against me because of the announcement of some number in the afternoon. People looking at fundamentals would have waited for the announcement of the number and then traded. Fine. 

In the world of trading, it is always good to have the worst-case scenario unwrapped and right before your eyes to see what it really means. 

You know, I can take this. 

Would you like to know why?

Firstly, I would like you to understand that we are looking at large sample-sizes here. Any sensible reasoning would only apply to large sample-sizes. 

Over the long run, and over many, many trades, Mrs.Market will go either way after an announcement of a fundamental number with a chance of roughly 50:50. 

If this is true, it is very good news for me, good enough to just kick fundamentals out of the equation. 

At times, the market reacts as per the crowd’s anticipation. 

At other times, it reacts in the opposite fashion. 

I assume that the ratio of the above two directions taken by Mrs. Market over a very large sample-size would be 50:50.

I think my assumption is correct. I don’t want to go through the labour of proving it mathematically. 

Ok, let’s assume that my assumption is correct. I then kick fundamentals, and go about my work while relying on my strong-suit, i.e. technicals. This trajectory will very probably have a happy ending. 

Now let’s assume that my assumption is wrong. 

What saves my day?

Technicals. 

Technicals very often give setups that factor in crowd behaviour and crowd anticipation of market direction. 

Technical setups get one into the build-up to an announcement. 

More often than not, one is already in the trade, in the correct direction, enjoying the build-up to an announcement without even knowing that the announcement is coming, if one is not following fundamentals. 

Technicals can actually do this for you. I’ve seen them do it. I mean, the GBPUSD has been giving short setups during the entire 1000 pip run-down recently. To have availed such a setup, people haven’t needed to know that a referendum is coming. All they’ve needed to do is to take the trade once they see the setup. 

Actually, that’s it. I don’t need more.  

I don’t need to reason anymore with myself. Everything is here. 

I think I can let go of fundamentals safely.

Even this trajectory should have a happy ending.

Happy Fourth Birthday, Magic Bull !!

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I believe in birthdays…

…and Magic Bull turns four today… 🙂 🙂 … .

When I die…

… this writing will live on. 

I won’t be taking my forex with me. Nor will I be carrying any equities. My soul will carry the satisfaction, though, of having created Magic Bull.

I love to write. 

It gives me a high. A huge kick. 

I feel totally free. Complete freedom. Have you experienced such freedom?

No shackles. 

I like to break barriers with my writing. 

I’ve reached people. Inside. People start to think whey they read this stuff. 

This is earning. For me. 

ANYWAYS, just as a breakout underlying breaks away into new highs, shattering all resistance in the process, in the same manner, words have just been overflowing over the past few months, after more than half a year of absolute dryness…

… such are words. 

However, by now, I’ve learnt enough to give them the respect that is due when they come. 

When words start flowing, there’s just one rule that applies. LET THEM FLOW. 

I don’t care how embarrassing that might be. 

What is embarrassment when the same words can bring about vital change? I really don’t care about the embarrassment. 

I decided long ago to make my tenure count. 

Contact with me is going to make an impact on you. Words are my medium. Without giving you an energy boost, I remain unfulfilled.

Why? 

Everybody has a purpose in life. 

Mine’s to make changes with the sheer force of my words. 

You have your purpose. 

I have mine. 

With Magic Bull, I fulfil my purpose of existing.  

With due respect, have you fulfilled yours? 

And, with due respect, have you even recognized yours?

Food for thought. 

🙂