Winning the Hand with 2/7

For the first time in life…

…being fully invested…

…seems a better idea.

Dangerous?

Sure.

Can halve in no time.

That’s something we carry with ourselves into the markets.

If we are afraid of something halving, we should look at other pastures.

Why aren’t we afraid of our investments halving fast?

Ever heard of upside?

Well, what is it?

The upside. How much?

Any limits?

In a growth market?

Potential future high-growth market?

Can’t give a number. Except that, over the long term, upside is perhaps nx, with n being a big number.

That’s enough reason to be fully invested.

Full benefit of upticks.

Big uptick days, perhaps 80% of them, are closely embedded with big downtick days.

Reason to stay invested all the time.

Expenses?

Sell the worst weed standing. Spend the proceeds on expenses. The biggest loser finances expenses.

Income?

Top up the winners.

Why?

Why not the losers?

This is a shift in Magic Bull thinking.

Winners have the longest runway before potentially becoming the worst weed standing.

In that long runway, they can double, treble, n-ble. Runway then becomes ultralong.

That’s why add to the winners.

Worst weed standing pivot philosophy allows winners much time to become even bigger winners, adding to the positive loop.

What about the negative loop?

Winner stops performing.

Down.

Down.

Down.

5 notches away from being the worst weed standing.

4 notches.

3.

Starts performing.

Up.

Up.

Up.

Above buying average.

Adding to.

2 bagger.

4 bagger.

Huge runway again.

10 bagger.

Adding to, runway is phenomenal.

100 bagger.

Kachinnnnng.

Some other winner stops winning.

Below buying average.

Down.

Down.

Down.

3 notches to worst weed standing (WWS).

2.

1.

WWS status.

Expense comes up.

Out.

That’s the exit route.

One route to expunge.

The entire philosophy pivots on WWS exit status – on the small trapdoor portal provided for cleaning up the portfolio.

Emotion?

No emotion.

With regard to exit, market dictates what to do.

We just elevated the status of the biggest loser to house-cleaner-in-chief.

That’s turning our biggest loser into a winning strategy pivot.

That’s like winning the hand in Texas Hold’em with a 2/7.

Upside?

Hey.

I’m all in.

Into India.

Growth.

Emotion.

C-word. Rhymes with interruption.

Extremes.

Consumption.

Hunger for outreach.

Cut to high growth.

This being a non-linear entity.

Comes a phase where we might quadruple in six months.

That time is not now, I got that.

Time now is to get in.

When all bleeds.

That’s what I’ve done.

Downside?

Sure.

Can be down by 50%.

60%.

Would take some black swans though.

Won’t be the only one. All will go down in such conditions.

Sleep?

Well.

How can I take the strain?

Have 23 years of practice. Blood and biochem can take it and then some. I have that confidence in myself.

Any more downside?

Mood.

Emotional checks.

Good behaviour at all times, coming naturally.

No worries because markets fall.

Selling a weed upon fund requirement state of mind.

Don’t need more.

Upside?

Unlimited.

Paying the Price

Hey.

In the markets…

…our convictions fight against each other.

Cut to the ongoing core IT vs AI standoff.

With mega spends on standoff propaganda alone, currently, the AI lobby is winning.

Not…

…comprehensively.

I fight from the core IT lobby side, which, btw, is evolving, obviously not fast enough in the eyes of almost all, and the image badgering continues.

One admits to being wrong for a while.

Admission means action.

Low-conviction SaaS names bow out. Losses taken. From what remains, stronger names bought, in innovative arenas. Ballast. Bought. Clean balance sheets. Vision. Bought.

Coming to the high-conviction names, they will remain.

However, taking on the humiliation of admitting, accepting and dealing with low-conviction losers is something I am deliberately doing.

I’d much rather discuss my losers with you.

It doesn’t mean I’m not holding winners.

It’s just that I’m choosing to discuss my losers with you.

On purpose.

A little bit of humiliation everyday, admitted, acted upon, and gotten rid of, goes a very long way. One wakes up to holding multibaggers, one fine day, sooner than later, in this manner.

And on that day, some of my high-conviction IT names, if still around in portfolio when they beat the propaganda machines of the AI brigade by posting unexpectedly great results, will then also count amongst the multibaggers held.

On the other hand, if this doesn’t happen for a longish enough time, high convictions will turn lower, ultimately underceding a minimal threshold. Since I finance my expenses by selling losers, and put my income into fresh potential winners, underceders will eventually exit. That’s the price one pays for pursuing multibagger accumulation.

Point is, ultimately, losers find the exit door. Before they become losers, they get ample leeway, measured both in time, and in notional losses, since conviction is, for that long time period, high enough to not identify them as weeds. However, once mentality flips, the weed is born in the mind. Once the mind makes up its mind that something is a weed…

…that something needs to be weeded out, …

…only to be replaced with potential flowers, …

…again, and again and again.