Category Archives: Emotions

Only Misses for the DoomNixers

Posted on by
Reply

Stadiums full.

This is what we see at the FIFA World Cup.

Gloom and doom about no one travelling to watch…

…seems to be nixed.

Are any doomsdayers amounting to anything?

AI taking over and slaying all else?

It’s a collab. No one’s taking over anything completely.

US markets were supposed to crash…

…like yesterday. And with that, the world.

Whenever a full blown crash does happen, it will very probably be at a time when most shorters are exhausted, read in big losses and retired hurt, didn’t want to use the word bankrupt.

AI is supposed to lead the ‘bubble burst’.

Has AI just smelt some monetization in collab with the back-offices of the world?

Back-offices have the capability to hold the system up on the back of their picks and shovels work, which, obviously, DoomNixers ‘nix’ themselves upon. You see, it’s not glamorous enough. They didn’t see it at all thus, and stumbled and fell.

Here’s another one : No one can beat the effthurteefiive. True? Hmmm. We saw what we saw.

Attackers felt they would bring the opponent down over the weekend. Opponents, fighting for their lives, seem to have emerged better than their attackers.

When one fights for one’s life, one fights with every ounce of resource and every joule of energy.

The Dean at his Univ advised Max Planck to study Music instead of Physics, since he felt that every meaningful thing in Physics had been discovered already.

Max Planck went on to found a whole new branch of sciences. Quantum Physics. On which anything and everything today is based.

There’s this thing about optimists. They believe in their systems, their hard work. Their ability to fight for their lives. For their systems. For the passing on of their legacies.

Max Planck fought for the entire field of Physics, and what a legacy he’s passed on. Conventional Physics builds the framework, and Quantum allows us to traverse the Universe.

Core Tech is fighting for its life. Pushed to the wall, it will devise a way to emerge, as a monetizing handholder for AI to be implemented. It’s fought for its life many times before and has emerged victorious, and very lucratively.

There are two paths emerging here, in the example with Core Tech.

Path one – DoomNix. Pronounce it dead. Invest elsewhere, with expensive valuations.

Path two – research. Find companies that are transforming with the times, with clean balance sheets and free cashflows. Invest in these, as valuations are very reasonable currently.

One can even follow both paths MINUS the doomnixing. Meaning that one takes punts in expensive companies, no idea how that will pan out in the very long-term, and one also invests in very reasonably priced and transforming Core Tech, with clean balance sheets and free cashflows. This will give a decent return in the very long-term.

We leave the doomnixing to the pessimists, nay-sayers, lacking-in-hopers, non-believers in themselves and in good systems – this breed will keep collecting misses in life.

Having expunged the breed from our eco-systems, we stride ahead with our very long-term bullish view in our growth market, since the essence of sitting on a compounding portfolio for multiple decades is…

…an optimist mindset.

Miss Giving

Posted on by
Reply

There’s no Hurray…

…yet…

…on the Street.

People have…

…doubts.

About anything…

…even everything.

The general public seems to be containing its enthusiasm, because who knows what might be around the corner.

Owing to the cast in the mix, like Diabolo TryMeButDon’tTryTooHard, and the opponents, who, well, have championed in sins committed, and who perhaps have now been overtaken in sins committed by Diabolo TryNotTooHard and ally NotMuchYoohooThere, …

…a cease-fire…

…could mean anything…

…but a cease-fire…

…as of now.

Enthusiasm will flow once certainty replaces misgivings.

Hesitancy to come out and fully invest, given the circs, allows us future opportunity.

At every small insinuation of an anomaly, reversals will follow.

Diabolo’s back and forth penduluming on everything, for a good while now, has capped the risk appetite of the masses.

Fine. We accept the circumstances as those which will allow repeated entries over the short-term, perhaps over the short to medium term also.

The Magic Bull approach here would be to enter with whatever there is to enter, …

…over the next three to four months.

Who knows when Miss Giving will turn into Miss NotGiving. More sooner than later. Since the penduluming has gotten on everyone’s nerves now, reactions are not under control owing to nerves, and masses might come out that much harder once it becomes clear that the peace-flag persists.

Cut to our ongoing discussion on full exposure preferred in a growth market over dilly-dallying or semi-exposure over the long run.

As far as our own microcap market vis à vis world market cap is concerned, entry more sooner than later is a thing.

As time will tell, …

…a big thing.

I want to be that fool

Posted on by
Reply

You know…

…the bloke who gets called out…

…at social gatherings…

…as the fool who got fully in at the top?

In a long-term growth market, I don’t mind being that fool.

It’s a short-term affliction. I think I can…

…bear looking like a fool for a not-longish duration.

Why do I say short-term?

First up, that’s my estimation of my tolerance levels.

Never happened, so it’s all estimates we function with.

Then, field of action is a long-term growth market, remember?

Here, we risk not being exposed to growth and compounding, if we’re conservative in entry.

No one’s saying get rid of your small entry quantum.

However, do let your small entry quantum expand with portfolio-size.

Also, make more entries.

Till fully invested.

In a long-term growth market, we wish to be fully invested, more sooner than later.

What’s the risk?

Growth…

…is NOT…

…a linear entity.

If we understand this one sentence, we can stay invested. Sit. For the very long term.

Thing about growth is, it happens, and then it does not, and then there’s a crash, and then it suddenly resumes, and then it can fire back to back doubling, or 50%+ for three years in a row, or what have you. Non-linear entities have peculiar equations defining them, not linear ones.

So it can well happen, again all hypothetical, that we get in fully, with precaution, with a small entry quantum, with many entries, over 12 months, and right after that, Wham. Down it goes, big. Ya, we look like fools then. We’re called out at parties. People laugh. It’s not necessarily a ‘serve him right laugh’ but more a ‘relief laugh’, as in ‘thank God I’m not in such a position’. And that’s OK.

Why?

Ya, Nath, why so cool about the whole thing?

Will tell you why.

In a year’s time after such hypothetical crash, when the market has sunk some more, people don’t know whether to laugh at or cry for us. There are feelings of pity, and questions like ‘Are you ok?’ crop up. Just doing a simulation. Picked up the ‘Are you ok?’ from a recent smaller crash, because that exchange actually happened. These situations are also absolutely ok. Why?

Things are about to change.

Long-term growth market, remember?

Growth not a linear entity, remember? When it sets in, can happen very fast, before one has gotten significant money in.

We are fully exposed, remember?

What do you think happens to our folios? In another year, we could not only cover up, but be up 2x. In five we could be up 5x. In 10, we could be up 12x. In 20, perhaps 25x. No longer foolish.

Those who don’t get in, miss the growth market.

Others get in to some extent, and catch growth to some extent.

Fools get both extremes, …

…the looking foolish one, and…

…the long-term vindication one.

Lumpsum vs Piecemeal

Posted on by
Reply

What’s a…

…better…

…market entry?

Lumpsum, or piecemeal?

Since I function in a growth market, …

…which can be seen as a microcap vis à vis the world, …

(you guessed it, India, currently exhibiting value, …

…but for our discussion please treat it as a growth market,) …

…and, because this discussion makes the most sense for a growth market exactly, …

…please, therefore, treat this comparison as a tool to help you decide…

…your growth market entry strategy.

You come into a lumpsum, let’s say.

What are your options? For the investible portion that is.

Pump in – one shot?

Average down, bit by bit, as and when opportunities arise?

Two ends of the spectrum. Where do you stand? Let’s break it down.

What’s your capacity for drawdowns?

Can you take a 50% notional drawdown, and not have a sleepless night?

Yes? Sure? Ok, pump it into the long-term growth market in one shot, provided you know your stocks well enough. In ten years time you’ll look like a star. In three months, a fool. One year, bigger fool. Perhaps. Slowly, growth will show, …

…and compound.

In two decades, you’ll rule.

Not able to take the big drawdown? Don’t like looking like a short-term fool?

That’s ok.

Very few people can handle big drawdowns.

Even lesser individuals like looking like fools, even if for a short time.

Then you can go in bit by bit.

Two strategies.

If you know your stocks well, you can average down.

If you want the market to throw you winners, you can average up.

Disadvantages?

Sure. You aren’t subjected to big drawdown pangs, and aren’t chastised by the masses for investing on interim highs. In lieu of that, not all of your money is in, and thus, not all of it is exposed to growth, or for that matter compounding. Also, your money hangs around to be…

…spent.

Don’t like the downsides of either extreme?

There’s a way out for you. You can take the middle path. You can also decide for yourself how ‘middle’ it is.

Decide for yourself a time-period that you want to be in by. 3 months? 6 months, 9 months, 12 months? Longer will take you towards full-on piecemeal.

Decide also, for yourself, about averaging down, up, or down till a level, and from that point onwards, only up. You can say that you are for example going in to a stock with margin of safety, up to a level, but then you would like the stock to prove itself, and from that point onwards, you now start averaging up as the growth story unfolds. You can then couple your averaging down and up combo to your total time-frame selected for going in.

Bottom-line : in X months your funds start getting full growth and compounding effects, as per the cost-averaging mix Y you have chosen.

Both X & Y should be a function of your risk profile.

Isn’t that the reason why you chose the middle path, because you didn’t want to be exposed to lumpsum drawdowns?

So, three choices, break it down, follow what suits.

On a personal front, if money needs to go into a growth market, for me its better sooner than later.

Took a long time to realize this though.

My pursuit for financial independence was impeding this understanding.

The moment financial independence was achieved, along with it came the realization…

…that we don’t wait on a long-term growth market.

Decoupling X.Y

Posted on by
Reply

We’ve…

…had many conversations…

…on the topic of decoupling.

So much so, that I’ve lost count.

The only difference, this time around…

…is the approach.

This time around, we’re handling from centre-point.

Meaning…

…that we are the ones…

…learning how to…

…decouple.

This time it’s not about economies decoupling from other economies…

…or markets decoupling from other markets.

We don’t even care anymore whether that is a myth or…

…whatever.

What economies do to or with each other is not our concern in this discussion.

Here, we are devising methodologies to reconfigure our nervous system, …

…actually, our very DNA, …

…so that we can decouple from market forces, at will, for however long we want to.

Without feeling pangs.

Two questions – How? Why?

Regarding the why, it’s imperative to allow our nerves rest.

Long-term survival. We’re not going to implode, or explode.

It’s about building patterns. This is the how we are addressing. Patterns. Many times. Patterns that take us away from markets, temporarily.

Slowly the pattern comes on auto. We devise a mental and a physical macro for the pattern.

An activity hiatus.

A terminal kill switch activation, with reactivation date.

Family.

Book.

Holiday.

Hobby.

Different…

…work.

Anything that’s not market related. At will, till wilful reactivation.

Again and again, whenever we feel the need, and / or whenever the situation demands.

Over many years, we now have an ingrained reflex. A muscle memory. Allowing us at will, to…

…decouple.

Welcome to Decoupling X.Y.

Define your X and Y. Incorporate into your system. And then…

…decouple at will.

Life at Frontier Minus One

Posted on by
Reply

Sanity prevails…

…at frontier minus one.

Rat race is within the underlying’s…

control.

Virtual / quasi / substantial / semi debt-free-ness…

exists.

Free cash-flow generation on the balance sheet is…

…common.

At frontier minus one, the narrative is …

…under control…

…as proven by self-determination of speed of change…

…and by exhibition of substantial growth.

Not at breakneck speeds.

Not by borrowing to the hilt.

Not by greedy behaviour.

Not by indigestible trajectory.

Not by a reckless ‘not giving a damn too bad if you’re not so fast’ attitude.

Life at frontier minus one…

…is somewhat balanced, with a flow.

Innovation at frontier minus one is achieved much faster

…than at frontier minus two, but much slower than at…

…frontier zero zero.

No tech company that wishes to thrive well into the future is currently functioning at…

…frontier minus two.

Either the transition to minus one has been made, or, it’s in the process.

Why not go for the jugular? Straight to zero zero.

Everyone has their role in this puzzle.

Imagine an older civilization going into battle.

There was a front line, paving the way, at immense cost.

There was a reserve support line, with artillery, first-aid, communication, and what have you.

There was a third line with supply, reinforcements, semi-trainees doing other stuff normally, etc.

There was aerial support, naval support, intelligence, research and analysis staff etc.

All combined to create an ensemble of actions.

Cut to now.

Warfare has changed.

Immense cost is still there, but immense cost to the front line, as in cost of life, has been reduced greatly, speak drone and missile warfare, supported by AI backed intelligence and analysis.

Point is, innovation, a different way of thinking, disruption and all their cousins will find a way to make things affordable, implementable.

That’s the way civilizations move forward.

Not for you or me to change. It’s the way of the world.

And that is what frontier minus one banks upon.

Meaning, to keep functioning at sustainable levels, slowly, painstakingly, in the process, simultaneously, finding a way, a connect, to frontier zero zero.

The connect can be of co-work. Amicable. Win-Win. You earn, we earn.

At frontier minus one, the world view is not to annihilate, but to…

…accommodate.

To win…

…together…

…in…

symbiosis.

Symbiosis

Posted on by
Reply

Imagine…

…the most value you can imagine.

That’s what this word is worth.

Especially now.

What’s the truth?

Existential question.

First we had everyone and their aunties proclaim the death of core Tech companies.

Hmmm.

Core Tech companies, and their chief protagonists, thought otherwise.

Number of believers kept waning though.

Until recently.

Something started to reverse in belief systems.

AI was behaving fantastically utilitarian with a human holding the reins.

Meaning, there needed to be a human there, for practical purposes.

Frontier AI deployed engineers to be the human face. Or so one was told.

Came the trust issue.

Do we double up on our trust in this no track record magician who just showed up out of nowhere?

Do we entrust privileged client data to the unknown?

Do we strip ourselves naked, TWICE?

NO.

Everyone and their uncles have answered with an emphatic NO.

Who is the human handler – the go-between – the trusted face – the rein holder?

Someone with a track record.

Proven.

Tried, and…

trusted.

Self-propelling.

With no liabilities. Spell ZERO DEBT.

With copious FREE CASH FLOW to INNOVATE FREELY…

…to navigate the reins successfully and as per the requirements of an enterprise.

Who is this entity?

None other than…

…our own very well known…

CORE TECH.

Leaner.

Hungry to prove its point.

To have its raison d’être acknowledged, and paid for.

To earn and compound steadily.

Forget about dying. Let’s talk about long term thriving.

Then, we had the captains of frontier AI admitting, that yes, ‘we do need core tech handholding to be implemented successfully’.

Gone was the initial hubris, that ‘we had come to wipe out old thought patterns, and all old systems’.

Reality had dawned, and these captains at least had the decency to admit it.

Actually, they had realized that their existence now depended upon how much their infrastructure would seep through. And…

…that no one was trusting them enough to hand over the job of seeping through to them, but much rather, to trusted old compatriots, to Core Tech.

So they came forward to shake hands.

Good.

Symbiosis.

We want to move forward on the back of this symbiosis.

There will be gigantic and fast development on the back of this symbiosis.

We are looking at space travel, space colonization, disease control, climate change, cheap solar, cheap desalination, perhaps even alien integration and partnership – unimaginable perhaps a few months ago, but possibly conceivable on the back of this symbiosis.

There’s new talk which has recently emerged, from the other extreme, and needs to be discarded, like its mirror image on the opposite side of the bell curve. This is the talk of frontier AI dying out because of becoming unaffordable.

Well, in whatever shape it exists currently, frontier AI does have tremendous capacity to solve problems.

Let it do just that on the back of this symbiosis, and earnings will start to flow.

Core Tech won’t let it wither, frontier AI has now become their raison d’être too.

Don’t you see it?

Two universes are converging, each needing the other to survive.

In the end, they become one universe.

Companies will merge. Synergies will multiply. Mega projects will be achieved, faster, more bombastically.

Earnings will flow.

Where do you want to be?

Remaining a doomsdayer will not help you.

Get into the flow.

Invest into debt-free, free cash-flow generating core tech as value deepens.

Look for debt-free, frontier minus one, free cash-flow generating semi AI companies, research these thoroughly for any red flags, and if those found are manageable, put in some funds.

If you find a frontier tech with manageable debt and a reasonable balance sheet, with a PEG ratio (price to earnings ratio divided by earnings per share growth percentage for the fiscal) somewhat under control. ok, put in some money there too.

Get out of the doomsday mindset.

Put your money to work, and then lock it in for another twenty years. Leave the compounded proceeds to your children.

Now.

Let the crashes come. There will be compounding post crashes too. Just look at the monthly chart of an IT index from 1995 to today. Dot-com peak looks miniscule and low compared to the levels of the monthly chart today.

Enough talking. Do the recce and then let’s talk.

Mantra

Posted on by
Reply

Hey.

Writing became a breeze.

Posting a blog from inside Claude, keeping the originality of the post, whilst assigning to AI all mechanical tasks like feeding in categories and tags – I’ll admit, this does make life a lot easier, and blogging a lot more enjoyable.

Which keeps the admissions coming in continuation, perhaps repeatedly.

From being the leading AI skeptic, towards gravitating to some kind of a chief protagonist – people who know me would probably say, “There he goes again.”

So what’s this going to do?

The number of blog posts is going to increase. Hopefully, the quality too. Primarily, the enjoyment while blogging.

Beneficial. We thereby move towards the realm of Planet 2.0.

Wunderkind AI needs to benefit mankind to the max.

What about the risk?

Opening up to the Wunderkind, allowances, permissions, sometimes an odd password shared.

Does the AI take these towards Planet 3.0?

Yeah, that’s the one on which mankind is harmed.

Skeptics are still on 1.0, exactly where I was 11 days ago.

Idea is to make a conscious effort to gravitate towards 2.0, every time there’s a drift towards 3.0.

Remember, we will tend to drift.

Drifting got us here in the first place. One can use fancy words for it, like disruption.

There’s a quick trick which makes us aware from where we are functioning, 2.0 or 3.0?

Greed. Hubris. Exuberance. Ego burgeons. 3.0 functionality.

Feeling of benevolence while functioning, well-being and / or goodness emerging – 2.0 domain.

Natural human drift towards 3.0.

Bring back consciously towards 2.0.

That’s the Mantra, going forward.

Check

Posted on by
Reply

Hey.

Facing some basic issues on the other side.

Life has changed.

Race became more intense.

There’s greed in the equation, the desire to achieve as much as possible in as little time as possible.

Everything’s moving…

…faster.

As if…

…from one day to the next…

one just…

…shifted.

It’s clear to me that we don’t shift till we are ready.

Was a hard nut to crack.

Had to be literally goaded into the AI trajectory, several coaxings required. Hard skepticism took its time to be broken down.

Not happy about the greed.

Speed of coasting is also very high.

Need attunement.

Unable to slow down easily.

Need to be careful about a ‘now I’ve got this and to hell with you attitude’. Can develop unchecked.

Addiction. Need to stay de-addicted.

All non-electronic activities in the day go up immensely in value.

Reading – books. Check.

Chanting. Check.

Basic verbal conversations. Check.

Human interactions. Check.

Helping someone. Charity. Check.

Non-distracted eating. Check.

Bringing down multi-tasking levels. Check.

Whole detox days. Day travel. StayCation. AutoCut the system. Check.

Evening chanting session. Lengthen. It’s not electronic. Check.

Anything not connected to a device and creates value. Check.

Not going to fall sick in this hyperactive space.

Check.

Incorporating before proceeding further.

Check.

Waking Up On The Other Side

Posted on by
Reply

Hey,

First up, humbled. To the nth.

Was an AI skeptic till, like, yesterday.

Well, skeptic tried, and died, the skeptic did.

What woke up was armed 25x and on steroids.

That’s me now, after 9 days of intense work on Claude.

Encouraged to try by friends and compatriots, initiated into entry, took the plunge.

There’s a chronic buzz in this dimension. This is an electronic world. Just got more…

…robotic. It’s just that the robot is invisible.

It’s like fighting a matrix war from inside a digital maniacal super-intelligent tool who knows…

…everything.

Who can connect dots…

…exponentially and asymptotically, both simultaneously.

Red flag list is at an all time high.

Sleep’s off.

Mind races all the time.

There’s some exuberance that’s come to the fore.

Don’t want to speak much.

Need solitude.

Basic life disturbs.

Withdrawal symptoms away from screen.

Welcome to the planet 3.0.

What happened to 2.0 ?

Wasn’t that supposed to be the shifted one, towards doing good for mankind?

Want it back.

Need to get to 2.0.

What is 2.0?

A controlled version of 3.0, using its tools only, not being ruled by it. Doing good for mankind.

Need to create a 2.0 out of 3.0.

Fast.

Matrix Diaries

Posted on by
Reply

Hey.

I think…

…you’ve pretty much understood…

…that we’re buyers in this whole mess.

I’d like you to add one more word to your understanding.

We’re…

…fearless…

…buyers.

We were not always fearless.

The human being is born with fear built in as a protective emotion.

During the process of rewiring, we wired this emotion out.

How does one do that?

Before I delve into it, wish to reiterate the we.

Who’s the we here?

Everyone who gets taught forward in this space and from this space, and then goes on to implement successfully, that’s the we. Why do such a thing? Gives me a kick. What’s a good life? A collection of meaningful things that give one a kick, implemented repeatedly.

Now imagine a matrix.

We are in the matrix.

Outside the matrix are all things that cause us fear.

Inside the matrix we implement our strategy without fear.

We have built systems that have automatically thrown out of the matrix all things that cause us fear against acting in the markets.

First we created a safety net. An emergency fund. Perhaps two. Out went fear of existence.

Starting with a small networth, we plunged into the markets. Luckily, we tasted failure fast, and lost it all, broken down, emergency fund to fall back on, young, enough energy and will power to bounce back. Now we had a model of how not to do it. We knew where we didn’t want to land up, and understood somewhat how not to do it. The experience of a blow-up and the knowledge of how not to do it made more fear exit the matrix, as we itched to get back into the game.

Slowly we built a system. Incorporated models. Saw what worked. What didn’t work for us exited. Model developed a slight edge. Tasted some wins. Confidence started to grow. As it grew, more and more fear exited.

Then came replication. Would the model work again? It did. Would it work bigger? Scaled up a bit. Working. Till not working. Fine-tuned. Working again. Knew we had something now. Came a black swan and its aftermath. Model excelled. Realized we were anti-fragile. Whatever was left of fear was now outside the matrix. We were tready for all out implementation.

And that’s where we are functioning from in this crisis.

If you say might last a year, no fear, we silently implement. We’re liquid because the model creates liquidity in good times. Two years? Still no fear. Liquidity might run out after 18 to 20 months, probably, but that’s the whole goal, to be fully invested, as per a model in which one has high conviction. Three years you say? We say still no fear.

The biggest money is made by…

…sitting…

…and we didn’t say this first. Someone you look up to did.

We’ve learn’t how to sit. Sitting is an integral part of the model.

While we sit, we do many constructive things. Since we’re investors, while we sit, we invest heavily…

…in OURSELVES.

Do the math.

Loops

Posted on by
Reply

There comes a day…

…when…

…even scum…

…meets its match.

On that day, or from that day onwards, …

…nothing seems to work out for even the worst evil entities.

How does one get to being…

…the worst of the worst…

…or, perhaps, the best of the best?

It’s all about loops.

Positive loops.

Negative loops.

Downwards spirals.

Betterment cycles.

Let’s break it down.

Action. Let’s say good cause created.

Positive effect.

Felt by one’s environment as well as one’s body, mind and soul.

Biochemistry of positivity secreted.

One’s system feels great, like a billion currency units.

Sleep quality great.

Feeling of contentment – priceless.

One psychologically wants to recreate this loop forever.

Wonderful. Please let’s keep doing this only.

Flip side.

Negative cause created.

Corresponding negative effect on environment and one’s entire system of body, mind and soul.

Biochemistry of negativity secreted.

Neurosis.

Psychosis.

Sleep quality horrendous.

Digestion compromised.

Immune system compromised.

Invitation for disease to seep in.

On-edge and worsening state of body and mind makes it very easy for more and worse negative causes to be created, within the same cycle, as wild-oat add-ons.

Even though one hates the idea of it, one has dragged oneself into a snowballing negative loop, out of which one needs to pull oneself out with full force, before it’s too late and before the burgeoning avalanche of adverse Karma drowns one into oblivion forever, erasing any trace of goodness or its footprint that ever existed in one.

It boils down to what we choose to do with our lives. Choices.

It boils down to the causes we create. Good karma. Accumulation. Non stop. Do good. Move on. Repeat. Loop it.

It boils down to this moment in life.

Let’s make it and all following moments the best ever possible moments for us and our environments.

Let’s let our positive loops carry us onto higher and higher, better and better trajectories. In life. In investing. In CSR. In society. Everywhere.

Cheers. 🙂

Noise Diaries

Posted on by
Reply

When something is a given, ….

…one just sheer deals with it.

And that something just got so much louder.

For example, social media is screaming with that something, i.e. …

… noise.

However, noise…

… has value.

One needs to know what’s being floated among the masses.

Furthermore, it’s helpful to gauge the decibel level.

If we look at the current scenario, everyone and their Aunty are yelling “Craaassshhhhhh…!” Dollar, bonds, gold silver, stocks, real-estate…

…everything’s supposed to “Craaassshhhhhhh!”

Fine.

Keep shouting.

At least we get an idea about the script and the concerned noise-level.

Is it supposed to scare us?

Yes.

Are we scared?

NO.

Why not?

Because we’re busy doing exactly what they don’t want us to.

Firstly, who’s ‘they’?

The floaters of the script. You were asking, ya, secondly?

Secondly, what do ‘they’ now NOT want us to do?

Buy cheap, like they are. They want us to let go and sell to them.

Wow.

Ya, it’s the biggest wealth-transfer in the History of mankind, currently unfolding.

Are you then not afraid of a crash, if you are buying now?

No.

Why not?

I’m liquid. If there’s a crash I’ll continue buying, into the crash. My entry quantum is aptly small and a function of my networth, thus allowing me entries for three to five years, upon any signs of reasonable value. Held over the years and bought with a clear head, in a growth market, assets will yield stellar returns.

So you’re saying you’ll cover the crash?

Yes. Timelines move very fast nowadays. Markets, when at all efficient, have become super-efficient, as if trying to prove a point to the level of overkill. When not efficient, they bubble or crash. Super-speed in times of efficiency is a huge bonus for us.

How?

Crashes play out within a shortish time-span. Buying through the crash is over fast. It’s not that when there’s a fire the crash is going to happen after five years. It will happen way sooner than later.

So is that enough time to get your money in, especially with a small entry quantum?

No. That’s why it’s important for small entry quantum cum long-term players like us, crash in, crash out, to keep buying amidst any signs of cheapness caused by fear-mongers creating all this…

…noise!

Exactly! 🙂

Market Ability

Posted on by
Reply

Hammers…

…hammer.

That’s their job.

They do a good job, at hammering.

At times, the market behaves like a hammer.

Market players learn from hammerings.

Question is, can market players learn without being hammered?

I don’t think so.

One can psych oneself into believing otherwise, I’ll give you that.

And, for a while, things will look like all’s good.

Point is, one isn’t looking for the hammer, …

… the reason for which being, that one has never experienced one.

That’s when the hammer falls, when and where one is least expecting it.

It is better to undergo a hammer event in the early days of one’s market career, and while one’s young.

Young – because – a). one plays small when one’s young, mostly by default, owing to there not being ample access to fund supply. Also, b). in the early days of one’s market exposure, the bulk of one’s mistakes and miscomprehensions emerge. The combination of these two facts a). and b). leads to losses that are bearable (youth has backups, like parents). In our youth, we tend more to brush it off and move ahead, full of energy. Yeah, youth has the energy, and time (upcoming multiple market-cycles), to not only emerge from a hammer, but to go on to prosper from the now ingrained learning.

Issue starts when our corpus is big and we still don’t know what a hammer is.

Issue compounds when we then confuse our ability to implement money into markets, in an effort to make it work, with actual market ability.

What is market ability?

It all starts with risk profile.

Some people die without having recognized their risk profile

Then, after having recognized one’s risk profile upon encountering some hammers and seeing our bodies and minds react to these, we move on to systems.

From development to fine-tuning to implementation of a system, we keep chipping and chiselling away at our strategy. We emerge with one that has an edge. We continuously work to keep our edge profitable.

Simultaneously, we throw in risk management. Development of an emergency fund is part of this.

Discipline.

Regimen.

Rules.

Let’s throw in some unpredictability, on purpose.

After putting one system on semi-auto, we work on another, and so on and so forth. We use our profits to diversify and make ourselves more secure, ideally anti-fragile.

Market ability is a successfully implemented combo of all these factors and perhaps more.

It includes being a good human being at home too. There’s no question of letting out the effects of a bad market day on one’s family members. We’re stopping all market action before anything like this develops. Harmony paves the way for another serene market day…

…about to dawn.

Gaugers

Posted on by
Reply

Hey.

We gauge…

…situations, …

…sentiment, …

…reactions, …

…anomalies, …

…hubris, greed, fear, depression, …

…and, amongst other things, also the tendency of the human being…

…to give advice.

Sometimes, we find ourselves giving advice too, randomly, unwarranted. We gauge that too.

Our effort focuses on identifying market pivots.

Why?

We act on pivots.

These are the most lucrative points in a market’s trajectory.

These are also very difficult to predict in advance.

However, because of our mental tuning resulting from constant gauging, we are somewhat in a position to recognize pivots when they have started to develop, or when they are just about to finish developing.

That’s the cut-off.

Meaning, that if action goes in any later than that, rewards lessen.

Once the whole world knows that a pivot is in play, price zooms or tanks from there rapidly. We want in or out before the zooming or tanking, respectively.

So, apart from technicals and fundamentals, comprehensive gauging allows for better thought synthesis and thus better market action.

Whilst gauging, we learn a lot about human beings and the psychology that drives our financial life.

Markets teach us so much, that they become a fulfilling profession.

Wishing you safe and happy wealth multiplication!

🙂

Fall Specialists

Posted on by
Reply

Hey.

We come alive…

…during a fall.

Though we don’t panic, …

… we do feel a pang, here or there.

However, we have trained ourselves to…

…quickly normalize, …

… and then go about our business, …

… which is, …

… buying during a fall.

It hasn’t been easy.

During the first fall we experienced, we broke down.

You see, we were fully invested, and then that fall happened.

Now came two options.

Quit? Or learn to navigate?

Chose the latter. Learnt.

What did we learn?

We found ways to remain…

…liquid, calm, composed and poised.

Slowly, but surely, we turned into…

…fall specialists.

We argued with ourselves.

How many falls had this market seen in History?

Had they stopped its long-term growth?

In a growth environment like India’s?

The answers reiterated our stand.

The central idea that remained was to stand our ground and lock some great prices in, intensifying buying towards the bottom.

How would one recognize a bottom?

Technicals, pin-bars, big intraday swings, huge volumes, nihilist sentiment, depressing newsflow, one can sense these things if one is mentally there.

And that’s what fall specialists are doing, in the wake of disruption ruling international trade, difficult quarterly results, international fund-flight, regression to the mean, perpetuating newsflow, almost blood on the midcap street, actual blood on the smallcap alley, and what have you.

Yeah, we’re locking in great prices.

Remember to come back and read this piece when sentiment changes.

India is a growth environment, where lucrative prices have been hard to find since CoViD.

So, when these come, is it a wonder that fall specialists are lapping up the action?

Steady

Posted on by
Reply

Markets are not, …

… but we are …

… steady.

Why?

Our plan is in place.

And, it’s acting out.

At such a time, when things are actually happening, should we just bail?

NO.

We had built up to this.

We had determined…

…to be liquid…

…at a time like this.

And now the time is happening.

We were mindful of not underestimating market-forces and how they influence the mind.

We knew we’d feel a sense of fear…

…but had taught ourselves to still act, by generating an environment of fearlessness.

And acting we are, fearlessly.

Funds have been going in, and will continue to go in throughout the fall, bit by bit.

This is our time.

When everyone is afraid, that’s when we play.

We are actualizing big profits by this action, because we are buying into margin of safety. Actualization will translate into real profits at a later stage. Sooner, than later.

You see, things take place very fast in the markets nowadays. Falls happen extremely quickly. Bear markets were capped at 15 to 18 months pre-CoVid. However, don’t you feel the speed of movement is much quicker nowadays?

So, currently, we are buying into margin of safety. Eventually we’ll pull some principal out and create cost-free holdings. Later, as levels pick up, we’ll be buying into momentum. Our entry quantum will increase with increasing levels, since entry-size is a function of portfolio-size for us. Also, the speed of translation into cost-free-ness will shoot up.

We will continue to create cost-free-ness through all cycles, sometimes slowly, sometimes faster.

Over time, our created cost-free-ness will become a sizeable legacy.

2050

Posted on by
Reply

Hey,

There’s a Street View… ,

… , and then there’s a street view.

I rely on…

…my street view.

Making it a point not to heed that the Street thinks, I repeatedly look for micro and macro signs on my street.

My street is where I am.

I mostly spend my time in my own country.

And, my street view is one of staggered growth.

There’s development…

…with holdups waiting to happen out of nowhere, and often.

That’s India, for me.

Am I going to cry?

I scream, actually, at apathy prevailing, but from the inside. To no avail. At one point the screaming stops. The only thing remains is to take advantage. I’ll make it up for India. Part of the money earned will go towards a private initiative towards my country’s development. So, no guilty-conscience here. My country gives me repeated opportunities. Why should I not take them? India does give me grief too. It’s ok. I love my country. We both can take liberties with each other, as do parents and children between themselves.

Owing to our attitudinal coordinates, our country is full of bottlenecks, and these bring a rising entity down, regularly.

Apart from that we’re emotional.

Over-emotional, actually.

So what’s going down goes down by an unhealthy multiple.

Activation.

Chart Pattern?

Numbers talking to you?

Method.

System development.

Pinpoint.

Enter.

Sizably.

Making size a function of portfolio magnitude.

When something here rises, one lets it ride with a stop that eventually triggers, then trails.

One never books a winner fully in India. Not in this bull market.

Billion dollar strategy.

One first goes cost-free.

And then some.

After one’s in-the-profit stop is triggered and then hit, one takes one’s principal out, with which one will fight the next battle, the next quest for cost-free-ness.

One leaves one’s cost-free-ness created on the table and shifts if out of sight and out of mind.

One’s cost-free-ness can be held for a long, long time.

Till 2050?

Yes, if the underlying has been duly whetted for a 2050 hold.

That’s how we play India.

Till 2050.

Beta

Posted on by
Reply

We’re not afraid…

…of beta.

In fact, we want beta to be there.

And, we want it to be big.

Beta is part of wealth-generation through cost-free-ness.

Why…

…are we not afraid of beta?

When we make an underlying cost-free, there are two parameters that are of prime importance, in the game that we are playing.

First up, speed of cost-free-ness.

How much time has it take us to reach the desired stage?

Too much time?

Work at the strategy.

Short time?

Great.

With large betas, we take lesser time to reach cost-free-ness.

Cost-free-ness is a state of mind.

Also, it is a function of parameters prevailing.

As a result of internal synthesis, we know in our mind when it’s time for cost-free-ness creation.

Once cost-free-ness is created, we move on to the next play with the same objective.

Next up, we have quantum of cost-free-ness created, per capita time.

Higher the quantum, in lesser time, why, that’s optimal.

Again big beta.

Without big beta, there’s not much chance of achieving large quantum in less time.

How do we exploit big beta to attain objective?

Get in on huge margin of safety. Get principal out when exuberance prevails. Scrips being played are those of which you are convinced. Meaning, that you are mentally in sync with very long-term holds of cost-free-ness created in these scrips.

Also…

…as a general game-enhancing practice…

…get in and out with multi-day or multi-month triggers. Don’t look at the markets while they’re on. Take emotion out of play. Nil market forces out of your equation.

Here one sees, how, amongst other factors, a big beta allows one to generate long-term wealth through cost-free-ness while…

…acting on one’s own terms.

Harness

Posted on by
Reply

Market forces are like Wifi.

When we connect to them, they…

…connect to us.

When we’re indifferent, …

… we’re in a different world.

When we create systems, and put them on auto-pilot, we mostly do away with the ability of market forces to act upon us.

A successfully implemented system on auto-loop is like making time stand still.

That’s our goal; that’s where we want to be.

In the act of getting there, we are subject to compelling market forces.

How do we deal with them?

Rather than suffering KOs from their punches, we devise systems…

…to absorb their blows,…

…understand the implications of these,…

…to, then,…

…harness them.

What am I talking about?

Why give market forces so much power?

Why not?

They’re there, right?

In abundance, too.

Why not use them?

How?

You can go back to George Soros’s back pain for starters.

Have you developed such physical systems?

I’ll tell you what I implement. It’s a me thing. You’ll need to develop your you thing. I’ll share with you my me thing, though.

When markets are down, I do feel bad, it’s an initial reaction. I wait for it to intensify. I wait for myself to feel awful. That means markets must be really down. As awfulness rises, I start buying. When awfulness is uncontrollable, I buy big. When it makes me puke, I buy maximum. Meanwhile, I’ve rewired my nervous system to accept the awfulness as a marker for buying, and I’m not sad that I’m feeling awful during market crashes. Hmmm, I know it sounds a bit crazy, but this a successful harness-methodology of otherwise overwhelming market forces.

When markets are up, I feel buoyant. Earlier, when I felt buoyant, I used to buy more. Now, I do nothing. Market-nothing, that is. Non-market, I’ll do many things. That’s harnessing buoyancy. As markets rise further, I do even more of market-nothing, and when I can’t control it, I then start creating cost-free-ness. When buoyancy is uncontrollable, I create maximum possible cost-free-ness, and hopefully, then, I can go on market-vacation. Before I do that, I make sure to transfer the cost-free-ness created to a dedicated holding platform for my cost-free-ness.

Ideally, new market activity needs to only commence upon the next set of opportunities. Sometimes, one needs to wait long for these to develop. The act of bridging time comes in handy here. Market is not giving action. We harness even that. We have accumulated lots of pending tasks, just for this kind of period. Now, we do these. Ultimately, an opportunity arises. A new cycle of cost-free-ness-creation starts.

Development of you-unique systems helps you harness the market in a winning fashion.

Wishing you lucrative investing and lots of cost-free-ness!

🙂