Category Archives: Investing

Patience and Nerves Anyone?

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As someone I look up to put it recently – “It’s a game of patience and nerves!”

What is?

The stock-market. 

For whom?

The long-term investor. 

Do you have any?

What?

Patience, or nerves, or both?

You do?

Well, then you’ll do well in the markets, over the long-term. 

We look for complication. Meanwhile, we forget the basics. 

These are basics. 

If you’re not patient, you’ll for example jump into a stock at the wrong time, or you’ll jump out of it too early, or what have you. 

If you don’t have patience, well, develop it. 

If you can’t, do something else instead. Trade. Don’t long-term-invest then. 

If you cannot develop patience, you are not cut out to be a long-term holder. 

One method to cause the tree of patience to grow in you is to create the correct environment. 

Just don’t do anything that will make you jump. 

Invest your sur-sur-plus, money that is then pickled away, money that you won’t miss, yearn for or require over the very long-term. 

Go in with margin of safety. 

Stay in a stock you’ve singled out and entered until there’s a glaring reason to exit. Try to exit upon a high. This is the market. Highs are its nature. So are lows. That means that highs come. Wait for them to come, to exit from anything you need to exit from. 

Nervers, well, they come into play if you’ve not invested with margin of safety. 

I do remember two instances though, where everyone’s nerves were tested. October 2008, and March 2009. At these times, stocks sold for a song. Good ones and bad ones alike. Fear did the rounds, extreme fear. That’s what fear does. It creates once-in-a-lifetime opportunities. Take them. Maintain a clear head. Your nerves of steel will do that for you. Create an environment for your nerves to become strong. Or, perhaps expressed another way, create an environment where any weakness in your nerves is not required to show itself, and gets subdued into extinction. 

How?

Again, just go in with your sur-sur-plus. You’re not going to miss this money even if the sky is falling upon your head. And you’ve gone in with margin of safety. Your nerves will stay intact. 

Ensure your basics. Allow them to shine. 

The rest will take care of itself. 

Good investing. 🙂

The Tipping Point

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What is it about tips?

Why do they have that lure? That magnetic effect? That greed-invoking element? That goosebumps-causing energy?

Tips thrive in any market. 

They are given at the drop of a hat. 

The giver feels he or she is doing a favour. The receiver feels obliged. 

What has led to the giver feeling complaecent that he or she has something one his or her hands?

The giver was a receiver, a very short time ago. 

He or she got sucked …

… into the story. 

The story is tempting. 

It builds upon many half-truths and binds them together in such a presentable manner, that one’s defences, if any, are just maimed. 

In comes the tip. 

Off goes the mind, counting the unmade bucks.

In goes the money. 

Mostly, it doesn’t materialize. 

Why?

Tips do the rounds as short-cuts in people’s half-baked minds. 

A short-cut to wealth. 

The 99% here don’t want to do the spade work. They don’t want to get their hands dirty. They want spectacular returns, though, and they want them now. 

That’s the short-circuit. 

Investing is about doing lots of research. You dig. And then some more. It’s about patience. You wait. And then some more. It’s about having a sorted mind, and then going in. It’s a full-time occupation, unless you streamline it so well, that it then goes hand in hand with your other daily activities, and drops into the background like a mantra that keeps resonating with your breath. 

Does one become a brain-surgeon in a few hours?

Do you ask the brain-surgeon to teach you brain surgery in a day?

NO. 

It takes time, study, effort, will-power, finances, mindset, etc. etc. to become a brain-surgeon. 

It takes a lot of similar things to become a successful investor. 

You make yourself into one. 

It’s your effort. 

You don’t become one following tips.

People ask for tips. Daily. It’s a disease. I’m scarcely able to deal with it. I just evade. 

Folks, those who ask for tips are expecting to be made a brain-surgeon in one day. Not happening. It’s a short-circuited way of thinking. Don’t ask for tips. Invest on your own. Do the study. Invest the time and effort. Make mistakes. Become fully baked.

Go for it. 

The whole nine yards. 

Yeah, the whole hog. 

Let It Come To You

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Don’t run after the investment.

Let it come to you.

Let it breathe down your neck.

You’re not hungry for it…

…but, if it’s that good…

… you might take it.

Let it reveal its hidden goodness.

Let it ignite your curiosity to look for even more than basic goodness in the investment.

Play a passive-then-active role.

Some call this the sweet spot.

I call it the sweetest spot…

… which you really want to be in, in the world of investing.

Yeah, don’t be in a hurry.

Hurry spoils the curry.

Take your time, to the extent that…

… take time out of the equation.

Give your money the best possible chance…

… to make loads more.

Did You Hear About the Last Mile?

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Yawn.

So you did, huh?

In investing?

No?

Yeah, I just thought about it.

Sharing it with you.

Churning, churning, churning…

… inside.

As you do your due diligence, information churns inside of you.

What is it that says yes, I’m investing?

Where does that go-ahead moment happen?

In the last mile.

Inside of you.

This is not to take away anything from your due diligence.

DD is central.

Very important.

However, last mile is important too.

One needs to respect it.

First, one needs to know about it.

Knowing about it will stop you from pushing an investment.

Don’t push… …in the markets.

Just be.

Take the shape of the container. Your container is your system.

Wait for your last mile to respond. Learn to understand its style of expression.

It’s a feeling…

… of well-being, …

… or something suffocating, nausea-like.

Embrace the former. Dump what’s causing the latter.

It’s as simple as that.

The most meaningful things in life are…

… exactly…

… SIMPLE.

The One Thing You Can Only Find Out About Due Diligence

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Working hard and delving deep leads to…

… exhaustion.

I wish to call this positive exhaustion.

It’s serving a purpose.

You may wish to rest.

Follow your instinct.

Rest.

Nature has stopped you from working beyond a point.

Work beyond that point could be counter-productive. That’s what your system feels from within. Listen to it.

How long are you going to stay away?

As long as your system baulks at pending due-diligence.

When do you get back?

When your system looks forward to pending due-diligence once again.

This way, the quality of work upon your return will be A+.

That will lead to high-quality investment.

Deciding to Invest?

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An investment opportunity comes along.

How do you react?

This is how I react.

First up, funds. Do I have clear funds to invest? No? Forget it, obviously.

Funds – maybe? Meaning, if I do some wangling around, fund demand could be met? Ok, move on to next step before taking a decision on the wangling.

Funds – clear – yes? Next step by default, but I’m telling myself that I’m not letting these hard-earned funds go just like that. The opportunity will need to clear my scrutiny. Period.

Then – time? Do I have 15 clear days to conduct deep due diligence.

No? Forget it. I may be travelling. Some event might occupy my time and mind. No time – no investment. Period.

Yes? Ok. Next step.

Energy? Due diligence is exhausting. I need energy reserves. My body and mind tell me. If they’re up to it, I’ll know. If not, the sheer idea of due diligence at that point will make me want to puke. Such is the power of mind and body to convey a message. No energy means improper due diligence. Not happening. No investment.

Yes for energy? Body is alive. Mind is alert. Moving to next step.

Due diligence. Digging deep buddy. I’m going to get under their skin. I’ll pick out their lie. I’m going places they won’t imagine I could get to. The internet is my oyster. We’ve never had it so good wrt information flow and disclosure. I start digging, and get so engrossed, that I forget about time.

Due diligence scrutiny check block oblique spoiler alert oblique deal-breaker? Could be an uncovered lie. Recently I discovered 100% pledging in a company, with everything else ok. Could be any dirt or its tracks. No investment.

Due diligence cleared. Go back to funds – maybe. Bring out mental weighing scale. Is the investment so worth it that I’ll wangle fund demand?

No? No investment.

Yes? Next step.

Think clearly. Very hard earned funds are about to go away for a while. What does the sum total of my everything tell me?

No? For whatever reason. I don’t question my sum total. No investment.

Yes?

Investment.

Happy investing! 🙂

IUCS – Investing Under Controlled Stress

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Let’s assume there are funds waiting to be invested. 

In what form do you keep them?

Free?

Bound?

What?

Investors have the luxury of time. Traders don’t. 

I’m really telling you, an investor’s funds need not be kept in free form. 

Traders need to pounce, not investors. 

If you don’t need to pounce, don’t keep your funds in free form. 

Keep them bound. Semi-bound. Let’s call it stressed. Keep them stressed. Stress that is under your control. 

What are we talking about?

Also, why are we talking about whatever we are talking about?

Free funds are open to whims and fancies. 

Whose? 

Yours. Your bankers’. Anyone’s, who has an eye on the funds. 

Plush with free funds, you take liberties. Your defences are down. You are liable to make mistakes, perhaps big ones. 

Bound funds, on the other hand, are subject to activation barriers before release. 

You think twice before releasing them, or perhaps thrice, if the locking is tight. You win precious time. During the extra time, you can well scrap an investment with a faulty premise, or you can discover hidden agendas or angles which cause you not to follow through. You get saved because of controlled stress. 

Furthermore, bound funds don’t reflect on your banker’s system as funds waiting to be invested. He or she won’t bother you or incite you to make a mistake. You’ve knocked him or her out of the equation. Bravo!

Controlled stress can be of different degrees. When funds are irreversibly locked-in, then we cannot talk of control anymore. Anything below that is under our control with varying levels of effectivity. The stronger the (reversible) lock-in, the harder you’ll think about the new investment, because the activation barrier for making funds free again to invest is large. 

Let’s not get too carried away. We can just make simple fixed deposits. These are completely within our control. You can break them with a letter to the bank manager. The activation barrier to free them is relatively small. However, you do think twice before freeing them. The’ve disappeared from your banker’s horizon. They’ve also disappeared from any online fraudster’s horizon, who was perhaps looking to clean you out. 

Also, actually, you don’t really need to break these fixed deposits to get into a new investment, since breaking goes with a small interest-penalty. If you’ve got fresh funds coming in at a later date, but wish to invest now, you can borrow against a fixed deposit. This will again make you stop and think, because borrowing comes with a cost, i.e. interest. You will only get into the fresh investment if you really, really have to / want to. You will discard any half-baked investment idea. It’s still worth it, despite the interest. You might find this a bit crazy, bit I like to do it like this. For me, the biggest win here is that I am not breaking a former structure. Add to this the extra safety. Plus the extra thinking-time to ward-off bad investments. Add everything up, and you might also think that the borrowing cost is peanuts when compared to the benefits. Don’t forget, since you’ve got fresh funds coming in soon, you’ll soon be releasing the fixed deposits you are borrowing against from their overdraft mode. This is a meta-game strategy. 

Yeah, keep investible funds in fixed deposits. It is really as simple as that. 

The best things in life are really very simple. 

Complication and sophistication are facades used by humans to hide their mediocrity.

A successful person does not need to hide his or her simplicity. 

Simplicity is one of the biggest precursors to mega-success. 

Understanding and Assimilating the Fear-Greed Paradox

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Holy moly, what are we talking about?

Let’s say you’ve done your homework.

You’ve identified your long-term stock.

Fundamentals are in place. Management is investor-friendly. No serious debt issues. Earnings are good.

Valuation is not right.

You wait.

How long?

Till the price is right.

What happens if that doesn’t happen.

You don’t pull the trigger. It’s difficult, but you just don’t pull.

Let’s say the price is becoming right.

You are looking for an extra margin of safety.

You are waiting to pounce. How long?

What’s your indicator?

Your gut?

Many things have been said about the gut.

It does feel fear.

Look for that fear.

Scrip is near a very low support, but holding. You are afraid that this last support might break and that the scrip might go into free-fall. Look for that fear. There goes your buying opportunity, you are probably saying. Intraday, support is broken. You are now sure it’s gone. Look for that feeling. Intraday, scrip comes back. Closes over support. Large volume. This chronology is your buy signal. You pick up a large chunk. Scrip doesn’t look back.

You don’t have to go through this rigmarole. You don’t have to bottom-pick. This exercise is for those who want that extra margin of safety.

Now invert the situation.

You’re sitting on a multibagger.

Lately, you’re not agreeing with the company’s business plans. You want out. Best time for you to exit would be now, sure. But, scrip is in no resistance zone, and is going up and up and up. What do you do?

Look for greed within yourself, when you start saying “Wow, this is going to be the next 100-bagger!” Look for the moment during this phenomenal rise when you’re getting attached to the scrip and don’t want to get rid of it, despite having concluded that you don’t agree with the vision of the promoters. Look for the time you start going “My Precious!”

Sell.

This chronology is your intrinsic sell signal.

Sure, radical.

I agree.

Sure, I’m combining trading techniques to fine-tune my investing.

I’ve stood on the shoulders of giants.

I’ve seen from their heights.

It’s time I start contributing.

Are There amy WMDs in the Markets?

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What’s a weapon of mass destruction in the markets?

Well, practically anything that the masses don’t know much about, and are being handed on a platter in a repackaged form, to savour. 

Sure, I’m using one of Warren Buffett’s analogies here. Loosely requoted, Buffett once warned, that futures and options were weapons of mass destruction (in the hands of those masses, who didn’t know much about them, but still used them). 

Yeah, I will stand upon the shoulders of giants if required. 

As long as I quote them, I’m good. 

The view from their shoulders let’s one think from a height. That’s an ideal situation for fresh thinking. 

Supposing something new comes up. That would be a contribution from my side. And why would it have happened? Because I took the liberty to stand upon the shoulders of giants. 

Bottomline is, that everything can be classified as a WMD if one is handling it and doesn’t know much about it. 

Equity is a WMD for newbies. For someone who spends many hours a day for many years, delving into Equity, the scene can be quite different. 

Rome wan’t built in a day. 

You don’t become a PhD in a day. 

You can’t master Equity in a day. 

Or anything else, for that matter. 

Do your homework. 

Put in the hours and the years. 

Burn the oil. 

Take what you do seriously. Not casually. If you’re casual about any professional line, drop it now, or start pursuing it seriously. 

Why do you want to give something the power to become a weapon of destruction?

You don’t. Period. 

Take that –>@&%# Mr. Peer Pressure

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Dear Mr. PP,

I don’t give in to you, never have, never will.

You’re not that important.

I don’t spend my time thinking about you.

I don’t respect any entity without a backbone, and you certainly don’t have one.

I’ve met you many times.

At first, I felt you, and was taken aback. You wanted me to do something I didn’t wish to do. You were strong.

I was stronger.

When you don’t know anything about the reputation of your opponent, frankly, you don’t give a d*m*. You fight. Till you fall or till the other fellow backs down.

I won my first head to head with you. Thank my stars.

After that I found out who you were. Yeah, who was it exactly that I didn’t succumb to?

After I’d grown up and all, and fully realized your devastation potential, I always leaned back on my first head to head. I mean, you were beatable. Period.

Yeah, I was lucky to have beaten you first up. It’s been a huge psychological advantage.

I’ve carried over this advantage into my market life.

Take a hike, Mr. PP.

[As far as market related activities go, I follow and advocate an unbiased, singular and customized path which doesn’t follow any crowd or any myths as such.

This path certainly does not let me invest under any kind of pressure.

Where there’s pressure, there are vested interests.

Please beware of investments which don’t suit your risk profile and are touted to quench vested interests].

What’s the Frequency, Flipkart?

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Hmmm, a zero-profit company…

In fact, a loss making company…

Do you get the logic?

People are probably seeing an Amazon.com in the making.

Amazon exists in a highly infrastructure-laden country with systems.

Can we say the same about us?

As of now – no.

Are we on the trajectory?

Sometimes yes, sometimes no. It’s been five steps forward and then three back till now.

What’s all the hype about?

Institutions want to make money during the ride.

Whether the ride culminates into an Amazon.com is irrelevant for institutions.

Public opinion acknowledges the ride.

That’s enough for institutions.

They’ll ride to a height and exit, irrespective of any MAT or what have you.

While exiting, they’ll hive off the hot potato to pig-investors in the secondary market, post IPO.

Hopefully, a valuation is calculable by then. Even the PE ratio needs earnings to spit out a valuation. No earnings means no divisor, and anything divided by zero is not defined.

Keep your wits about you. Follow performance. Follow earnings. Follow bearable debt. If you see all three, a sound management will already be in place. Then, look for value. Lastly, seek a technical entry.

Don’t follow hype blindly.

Cheers! 🙂

Loneliness of the Successful Investor

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Walked alone?

No?

Please try.

Success needs original ideas. Original ideas need solitude.

Successful investors walk alone.

Sometimes, they’re lonely.

Investing is more about sitting than action.

Sitting around inactively breeds loneliness.

The antidote is activity – other activity. Not market-related.

Successful investors do other stuff to tackle this loneliness.

Buffett plays poker.

Branson is breaking into some virgin territory or the other.

Gates is busy souping up his home.

Trump trumps.

Jindal plays polo.

Mallya’s sole focus has been other stuff, so much so, that he’s become unsuccessful.

Mahindra loves to tweet.

Tata walks his dog.

Sachin watches Wimbledon live.

Mr. Bean is seen on the F1 circuit.

You get the gist.

These people follow one or more “other” activity / activities so passionately, that they forget about their main activity for a while.

Their system recuperates. Time is bridged to the next instance of main-frame action. While traversing this bridge, body, mind and soul have recuperated. System is fresh, ready and waiting for new action.

When you’re walking alone next time, you’ll be able to deal easily with any loneliness on the path.

One might make moderate returns, investing with the masses.

To outperform, though, one needs to walk alone.

The successful investor realizes that he can’t get out of this one.

Therefore, the successful investor creates a way to still come out winning.

This is human capital at peak performance!

Hanging On to a Structure

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How does one build a wall?

Brick upon brick, right?

One doesn’t usually take out the brick two layers below to use elsewhere. Common-sense. 

Why should it be any different while building a rock-solid portfolio?

Well, it’s not. 

Those who feel it is will soon realise… that it’s not.

You set up an investment.

You then see it through to its logical conclusion. 

You don’t let it go in between… …unless we’re talking about a life and death situation.

Apart from this one caveat, you just don’t let the investment go. You see it through… to its logical conclusion. Period. 

Meanwhile, other opportunities arise. 

You are tempted to get into them. That’s what opportunities are for. 

Now you need to be creative. 

You’re not letting one structure go for the sake of creating another. 

You are going to keep the former and create the latter. 

How?

Dig into your reserves.

How were the reserves created?

They were created by former structures that were seen through to their logical conclusion. These contributed along their paths and upon their culmination. 

Reserves not enough?

Borrow agains a former structure. 

Don’t borrow big. Borrowed amount should not be big enough to harm the former structure, but big enough to couple with your reserves and see your new structure through. 

Still not enough? Requirement for new structure not being met?

Let the new structure go. 

Opportunities keep coming and going. No one’s got a copyright on opportunities. 

Save up for the next one. 

Brick by brick, remember. Without sacrificing the bricks below. 

🙂

A Secret Ingredient for Equity-People

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Racking your brain about how to make Equity work?

Don’t.

Two words work here. 

Be passive. 

Learn to sit. 

Let’s say you’ve gotten all your basics right.

Company is great. Management is sound. Multiple is low. Debt is nil. Model looks promising. Yield is note-worthy. Technicals allow entry, blah blah blah…

Then what?

Yeah, be still. Learn to sit. 

What are the prequisites for sitting?

You need to not need the stash you’ve put in, at least for a long while. 

You also need to get your investment out of your primary focus. 

For that, your day needs to be full…of other main-frame activities. 

Make Equity a bonus for yourself, not a main-course. That’s how it’ll work for you. That’s the secret ingredient. 

How to… … is stated above.

Why to? Aha.

For it to work, fine, but why the sleeping partner approach?

Human capital needs time to show results. 

That’s why you’re in Equity, right, for human capital? The rest is ordinary stuff, but human capital is irreplaceable. Human capital works around inflation. One doesn’t need to say anything more. 

You’ve got your work all cut out.

Get going, what are you waiting for? 

That Thing about High Growth

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Panipat, India, 2004…

The Asia-Pacific Head’s speech was intriguing. I still remember it, even though it was delivered a decade ago. 

He’d come to inaugurate his bank’s branch in our town. He said that he loved opening new branches in the middle of chaos, where he can barely manage to park his car, and where there is just about an iota of order amidst disorder. 

We were puzzled, and I believe one of the invitee’s even ventured asking why. “That’s where 8%+ growth exists” replied he, or something to that effect, and his words stamped themselves in my memory. 

Cut to 2014.

Look around you.

Can you find any corner in the world, where high growth is linear?

Very low single digit growth can be linear, yes. In such countries, there are systems, that check short-cuts and mal-practices. Governments are overall honest. Social security systems are up and running. 

There is some element or the other of a banana republic to any really high-growth economy you find today. You don’t really know what’s cooking in China’s soup, do you, behind the media-ban? Brazil’s let so many starve to host a successfully organised world cup. How much of Russia is about mafia, and crime? And, India might be a democracy, but you just need to look at the inflation and deficit numbers to figure out that something’s off. We’ve just gone through the BRIC nations, prime examples of high non-linear growth. 

Let’s not grieve about what all is wrong with high-growth nations. Let’s look at what we do have going in our favour. What’s common to such nations?

 

– The fact that growth comes in spurts, when some conducive event occurs, like a sound governance stretch.

– The fact that these economies are all highly volatile. 

– The fact that we don’t need anything else – to trade them. 


Yes, we are going to trade such economies. Regular volatility, both ways, is what a trader wants. 

You can invest in such economies if you want to, sure. In that case, you’ll need to use your common-sense and not believe every balance-sheet that is being presented to you. You’ll need to read between the lines at every step. Some people are good at that. 

I’m more comfortable trading a volatile market. 

Thus, I really don’t care why a Ranbaxy might be poised to go down. I’ll just be looking to purchase a cheap Put upon noticing that a key support level has broken down. 

At the same time, I couldn’t care less if an Infosys is just about to disclose stupendous numbers. I’ll just be looking to purchase a cheap call based on a technical level being pierced towards the up-side. 

That’s the thing I love about trading. You don’t need to ask more than a few basic questions before taking the plunge. Also, with avenues like options now being liquid both ways, risk is exactly defined and relatively low. 

The thing about high-growth economies is that you can play them well enough with options. 

Wishing for you happy and safe trading.

🙂

Speed of Rise vs Speed of Fall

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Specifically, equity markets have this one repetitive characteristic.

Their average speed of rising is lesser than their average speed of falling. Much lesser, I would say. 

Why?

Falling has to do with selling pressure being more than buying pressure. Selling pressure is connected to fear. Add caution to fear, and one has already sold out. 

Rise has to do with buying pressure being more than selling pressure. Buying pressure is connected to optimism. As markets keep nudging higher, slowly, optimism turns into euphoria, with a hint of caution. This caution slows the speed of rising, till greed takes over in the last stage of the rise, and one fails to see any caution anymore. At this time, the speed of rising is the highest, but is still lesser than the speed of falling at the nadir. Why?

What is the prevalent situation at a nadir? There’s blood. People are running for their lives. They take action before asking questions, and before looking here or there. 

Many times, you come across someone holding a stock which he or she has inherited from a parent. This someone comes to you with the ubiquitous query – what to do, sell it now? You look at the chart. Whoahhhh! You see the buy price, one and a half decades ago. You look at the current level. You calculate the profit. Along the time axis of the chart, you also see that the stock fell back to its buy price or below in a market crash, all within a month and a half. After this, the stock has recouped its losses of the crash, and is showing a healthy profit again, six years after the crash. During the crash, how long did it take the stock to fall below the buy price of one and a half decades ago? A month and a half. Holy moly!

That’s the equity playground for you. 

It’s directly connected to human emotions. 

Anything can happen on this playground, so keep your eyes and ears open, and…

… be prepared. 

Emotion in the Marketplace – Enemy or Ally?

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Either or…

… choice is yours baby.

I’m not going to pretend we don’t have emotions.

We do.

We need to make these work for us.

Everyone feels exhilaration upon winning.

We’re down after a loss. 

Before you enter the marketplace again, dump all this somewhere …

… which, btw, is the most difficult thing in the world.

Didn’t anyone tell you that? What about your professor in financial college? Oh, I forgot, he or she never had his or her own money on the line, so he or she didn’t know this one. 

Arghhhhhhhhhhh@#$%^!

Don’t learn anything about finance from anyone who doesn’t have his or her own money on the line, and that too regularly on the line (((financial theory is worth mud unless it is realistic, applicable, and ultimately…profitable). 

So, what is this “line”? [More about “The Line” here – https://magicalbull.wordpress.com/2012/01/13/the-line/ ].

The line is an invisible connection between the vicissitudes of the marketplace and our emotional centres in the brain. 

The line gets activated once one is in a trade, or once one has initiated an investment. 

Once the line has been activated, we need to deal with its effects upon our systems. For optimal efficiency, we need to nullify the effects of the line on our systems. After that, we enter the marketplace again. 

So, acknowledge whatever emotion you are experiencing. Then deal with it. 

Dump the emotion of a loss in a safe place, to be nullified by a big future win. 

Dump the emotion of a big win in another safe place, lest it causes you to exit improperly and prematurely. 

How does one nullify this particular emotion? 

You see, your next activity in the marketplace can make you blow up, if there is any remnant hubris from a previous big win. 

You close your eyes, tell yourself that under no circumstances are you going to suffer the humiliation of blowing up, you centre, focus, you identify the next trade, and then you just take the next trade, as if nothing has happened. 

You have to work yourself around your own emotions. In the marketplace, emotions are your allies only if and when they are properly dealt with before the next market activity. 

Otherwise, they become your enemy. 

Loss can lead to depression and ultimate exit from the marketplace. One needs to understand and accept the concept of taking small losses. Why small? Why not small? You can define your loss. You can cut it when it’s small. Once one has understood and accepted the idea of taking small losses, these won’t bother you any more. That’s how you set yourself up to win big. Big wins, unless dealt with properly, lead to hubris, which can cause one to blow up permanently. We work ourselves around the negative potential of big wins through visualisation. 

Once you’ve sorted out the emotional angle…well, just take the next trade. Don’t wait. Just take it. 

Am I Taking Bitcoin Seriously?

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Yeah.

Bitcoin is a serious new kid on the block.

Am I getting into it? That’s the more important question, isn’t it?

Well, not yet.

First up, I know very little about it. I’m not going to get into something because of the smoke. Gone are the days.

So, I’m educating myself.

The Web tells me that Bitcoin is not alone. Numerous Crypto-currencies have emerged. Confusing.

Many of these have their main servers or their secondary addresses located in ex-Soviet / ex-iron-curtain nations. Intimidating. I’m afraid.

Then I look at the bid-ask spread for Bitcoin. There’s typically a 1% difference between buying and selling price. That is huge. In fact, it’s outrageous.

After that I look at the Bitcoin price vs time chart.  I can see the panic in the chart. I don’t like panic. I generally stay away from panic markets. If I’m entering a long-term market, I like entering on a solid base foundation. The panic dust hasn’t settled yet. Technical bases build after panic settles, and only if the underlying has long-term mettle. They’re visible on the chart as horizontal stretches. Not happening as yet on the Bitcoin price vs time chart. Means I’m not entering yet.

Then there’s this mining stuff. Like, virtual mining. I don’t understand it. Yet. Looks silly, off-hand. Could this be connected to currency-backing? Or, is this just a hype-creating gimmick that doesn’t make economic sense? I’m not sure, I tell myself.

Last point I’m making against current Bitcoin entry – theft and loss. If I store Bitcoin on my computer, it becomes a potential target. I don’t wish to have the 5 million odd extremely sharp ex-Soviet ex-chess wizard brains targeting my computer. Period.

So, where do we stand?

Meaning, why am I taking Bitcoin seriously?

The USD has nothing backing it. The US seems to be following a fiscal policy with high risk of implosion due to escalating debt. They’ve got no reserves left. Savings are nil. The USD will probably maintain its hierarchy till the world has another alternative.

A few years ago, I thought that Gold could be this alternative. Today, I think Bitcoin is a more serious contender.

First, I need to convince myself that Bitcoin is backed. Meanwhile, the noise will even out, and only the most solid crypto-currencies shall live on. I’d like Bitcoin to still be at the top of all crypto-charts once the noise settles. By then, there’ll be someone reliable in my own country offering Bitcoin investment and trading, someone I know, like an HDFC Bank, or a Kotak Securities. Volumes will escalate. Slippage will be down to a bearable 0.1% or less. Bitcoin’s chart will show a base foundation. I’ll have understood the virtual mining stuff, and hopefully it’ll be connected to currency-backing. Banks will store Bitcoin as an e-holding, which will reflect in one’s Netbanking.

That’s when I’ll enter Bitcoin.

What’s your Answer to Dictatorial Legislature?

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Cyprus almost bust…

Money from savings accounts being used to pay off debt…

Five European nations going down the same road…

US economy managing to function for now, but without any security moat (they’ve used up all their moats)…

Our own fiscal deficit at dangerous levels…

Scams in every dustbin…

Mid- & small-caps have already bled badly…

Let’s not even talk about micro-caps…

Large-caps have just started to fall big…

Just how far could this go?

Let’s just say that it’s not inconceivable to think… that this could go far.

Large-caps have a long way to fall. I’m not saying they will fall. All I’m saying is that the safety nets are way below.

I see one big, big net at PE 9, and another large one at PE 12. Getting to either will mean bloodshed.

Inflation figures are not helping.

In a last-ditch attempt to get reelected, the government recently announced a budget for which it’ll need to borrow through its nose.

Oops, I forgot, it doesn’t have a nose.

The whole world is aware about work-culture ground-truths in India.

Things are out of control, and this could go far, unless a miracle occurs and Mr. Modi gets elected. Before such an eventuality, though, things could go far.

When large-caps fall, everything else falls further.

How prepared are you?

Hats off to those with zero exposure.

Those with exposure have hopefully bought with large margins of safety.

Those who are bleeding need a plan B.

In fact, a plan B should have been formulated during good times.

Anyways, how prepared is one for a Cyprus-scenario, where dictatorial last-minute legislature allows the government to whack money from savings accounts?

In future, you might need to find a solution for loose cash in savings accounts. It needs to be kept in a form where government doesn’t have access to it.

As of now, what’s serving the purpose is an online mutual fund platform, through which loose cash can be moved and parked into liquid mutual fund schemes. For government to exercise full control over mutual fund money, it’ll probably need to be more than a bankruptcy scenario.

That’s just for now. Adaptability is the name of the game. It’s always good to be aware of one’s plans B, C & D.

Where Is The Love?

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There’s this song by The Black Eyed Peas, called Where is the Love?

It’s playing on my phone as I write. It’s really good. Features Justin Timberlake. Very catchy tune, amazing lyrics. The Peas are talented. Gotta hear them.

I drag myself through two customer-care calls, one with Dish TV, and the other one with Bharti Airtel.

Exasperating. Pathetic. Nuisance-value. Drains one out. Long.

Where’s the love?

These are some of the words / phrases / questions that come to mind.

Meanwhile, the Dish and Airtel jingles are coming out of all body exits.

Then, I remember my customer-care calls with AmEx.

Smooth.

Officers are clued in.

Zak-Zak-Zak, and your work is done.

Short, and sweet.

And, there’s love, for whatever reason.

What kind of a corporate India are we growing up in?

Indigestible growth over short periods leads to disease.

Are the majority of our corporates diseased?

If they’re not, one should be feeling the love.

Where’s the love?

One does feel it, in some companies. M&M, I think, Thermax, Wipro….Dabur maybe…

Before investing in a company, it might be a good idea to talk to the company’s customer-care, and to see if there is any…love.

It’s got to trickle down from the top. You are only as good as your boss is. If the boss is holistic, the company becomes a beacon of love, understanding and digestible growth. That’s the kind of company one feels like working for…

… and that’s the kind of company one feels like investing in.