This is the Time

Shorting India…

…has now become an international norm.

Institutions are angry.

Tax surprises.

Massive corruption. At every step.

Slimy Indian counterparts. That’s us, right?

Lack of ability to understand how our system functions. If at all.

Prominent world leaders have written us off.

Soros et al are out with a…

…vengeance.

BooHoo.

Nobody likes us.

Which is ok.

Why?

It’s ok for now. As we get fully invested. No or minus hype factor, our shining ex-examples now shorted down to triple digits, should we start to cry and call it a day?

NO.

This is the time. To, slowly, get, fully, invested. Period.

When there will be hype, it will be accompanied by a hype-multiple. That’s exactly not the time to attempt full entry.

And there will be hype.

Where else is there ample growth?

Young, ‘hungry’, consuming, raring to go population?

You see, you can’t make robots consume. Humans are another story.

Where else is there ‘jugaad’?

This is the output Claude just gave for ‘jugaad’ : ‘At its core, jugaad is the art of getting something done with whatever is at hand—finding a clever, low-cost, unofficial fix rather than the “proper” (and usually expensive or unavailable) solution. It carries a sense of ingenuity under constraint: making do, hacking together, improvising a path through obstacles that a rulebook says shouldn’t be passable.’

Come on, dear shorting Western counterparts (of course I’m not shorting, I’m as long-long-long India as one can get), don’t you see it?

This is a thirty year story unfolding.

Time to get in, and stay in, is now.

Your quarter to quarter focus is so short-sighted, that even the optician doesn’t have appropriate glasses for you.

What can one say for the likes of Soros et al? Wrt the ideology that a country needs to be taken down financially, latest exploit Thailand, failed at India takedown attempt 1.0, did you, with three lending banks going down? Right? Either involved in current attempt or planning 2.0 currently, right?

Our sentiment is raked up. We will face. And overcome all shorters. In the long run.

More and more of the populace is moving its savings to its own markets.

Barely lets say 15% or less have demat accounts in our country.

Imagine the kind of money going in when this number tops 50%, which is the case in the countries shorting.

At current stand, our own very DII inflow, of which SIPs form a bulk, has managed current onslaught very reasonably. At 50%+, FII activity will not have any significant effect. It does now, not to a great extent, but to a visible one.

We are getting there.

Till then, there will be bumps.

Use the bumps.

In some years, one won’t get reasonable entry.

About that Crash

Everybody…

…and their Uncles…

…have been yelling…

Crash. Crash. Crash. Crash.

We delved earlier. Ad nauseam. Last we spoke was about deception.

Crash always happens. Nature of markets. Inflation, then deflation, back to mean, first below mean, then to mean. Questions are : how much inflation first? How much deflation then? When does deflation begin? Does anybody know?

NO.

Model the answer?

Sure. It’s at best a…

…guesstimate…

…and please don’t pretend otherwise.

Champion modellers?

Many. TV’s brimming with champions. Some called dotcom. Others gold. Few called silver. Someone’s calling Nasdaq to -70% between 2 weeks and 2 years. Call, call, keep calling.

Meanwhile, we go about our business.

Rather than ruminate and drown in fear of a crash, we go about getting fully invested upon available opportunities.

What?

Why?

Isn’t it better to just save up for the bottom, and then pump it in.

Hmmm. Here, there’s been a shift in thinking at Magic Bull, over the years. At the bottom, here’s a numerically hypothetical scenario, your close one will be whispering in your ear something to the tune of oh-damnation-this-is-going-down-to-5000, and then the index bottoms out at 7749 or something, and reverses upwards like a F1 Red Bull Racing vehicle. Leaving all 5000ers and their bulk liquidity on hold. For re-reversal downwards. Doesn’t happen. At 10k, the 5000ers are losing it. At 15k, they can’t sleep. At 20k they go all in at an interim peak, after having spent half their liquid capital on vacations, splurging, expensive rubbish and whatdon’tyouhave.

Meanwhile, we’ve entered at select spots, and in select underlyings. Fundamentally sound. Zero debt or virtually debt-free. Free cashflow. Clean balance-sheets. Clean governmental audits. Skin in the game. Track record of navigating through disruption. Track record of shareholder-friendliness. Intelligent, diligent, industrious, vigilant people running sound businesses. This is the stuff multibaggers are made of.

Since we are in the game of bringing multibaggers into existence for us, what’s a few months of a good, hard crash to us? It will come and it will go. We are in a growth market in India. For the next three decades. Why are we getting paranoid of a few months when we will be notionally down, still going about our business, lapping up new opportunities which will have set up, not needing our invested funds for five years plus.

We’re not.

Ya, let the crash come.

Apart from the fact that segments across Indian markets are already down 50%+ after having been down 65%+ (crash in India has already happened to a noteworthy extent), a blowdown on the Nasdaq will probably knock Indian counterparts to their recent lows, perhaps another 10 to 15 to 20 % to boot, and then…

…watch the recovery baby.

It’ll leave you behind. You won’t be able to get in funds fast enough. You’ll be a combo of missed the bus and fomo and ruing it and damnation and sleepless nights because of your current fear of impending…

…crash…

…whenever it happens…

…as if 65% off from top for many, many stocks isn’t a crash already…

…and there you have it.

Crash? As in more crash? Fine. Let it come.

Meanwhile, we continue to go about our business. Till the crash. During the crash. After the few months of crash. Well into the V-shaped recovery. In our very own growth market. No need to look elsewhere.

Fading Deception

Manipulating…

…the masses…

…towards something to be bought…

…or something to be sold…

…when whales are out to buy or sell, respectively, …

…is the bread and butter order of the day usual suspect chicanery that one can expect in the marketplace.

Unnerving?

Relax.

It’s normal.

How else would a whale feed on a school of fish?

Meaning, how would a big institution, or a many-big-institutions-conglomerate loosen the public’s hold on their holdings, to sell en masse if the big people are buying. Or, vice-versa, how else would the BigFats offload bulk onto the unsuspecting FatteningPigPublic, if the BigFats (BFs) are selling bulk?

Deception…

…is a handy tool that comes to hand.

Offloading Korea? Gold? Silver? Oil? Something AI with no fundamentals? Create the hype, reel after reel, rant after rant, roadshow after roadshow, till all and one’s Aunty believe the story, and when these latters start to act, BFs start offloading.

Buying Core Indian Tech? Lambast the country and the world with non stop ranting for 5 months and continuing. Flood its social media with panic reels about the collapse of Core Indian Tech with its debt-free-ness and its cash on the balance sheets, something whales want to own, and watch the underlyings crash, lapping them up as huge bargains.

Disturbed?

Manipulation is irritating.

However, it sets up opportunities.

Buying opportunities.

Selling opportunities.

It’s woven into the nature of markets.

Material and emotional life is about wheedling a few bucks out of someone, or keeping someone’s affection trapped with emotional blackmail.

Markets are a reflection of life itself, thus.

Why should one be alarmed, then, when short-term life-dealings are also found in the markets?

Any way out of this conundrum?

There is.

Remove the noise.

Move away from the one-month thought process, the three month one, the six month one, the one year one. Move longer term. 5 years. 10. 20. No noise now. Fundamentals will shine and translate into EPS spikes into price spikes. That’s all. That’s how markets work. This takes time though. Time enough for manipulation to come, do its work, die down as noise always does, and then the real game starts to play.

If you still can’t handle it, move onto some other play.

Or…

…teach yourself to stay long-term.

Best way to learn is to put your money on the line, hit, try, fall, get up, repeat, till you stop falling.

Ensemble

Amidst the…

…frenzy…

…of reels, posts, communications, reports, research and what have yous…

…concerning the ongoing image battle of AI vs Core IT…

…it is extremely difficult to keep one’s head and vision clear.

What does the future look like?

A flurry of multitudinous pathways emerging does not mean utopia yet.

Forward outlook, especially a lucrative one, is not about exclusion.

Coming on to the scene with an attitude of trampling everyone else out of the scene – is this sustainable?

No.

Going into the future with partnership?

Yes. Sustainable. Let’s look around. Who’s forming partnerships?

Core IT. Yes. The impulse to continue to thrive is a strong one.

AI? (Yes). No. No. Unsure. No. Yes. No.

The frenzy that results after having spent obscene sums with steady revenue streams only developing since recently is so frantic and haphazard, that one’s left hand sometimes doesn’t know what the right hand is doing.

Pulling at the same string in the same direction will maximize revenue stream.

Hostile attacks at Core IT, every few days a new one, is not the way forward.

Is this a case of ‘as the leader does so do the subjects act’? A kind of a concerted strategy? To stomp on everyone’s heads and declare oneself king.

King?

Perhaps for a day.

Long-term market leadership requires craft.

Craft comes from years of honing.

Speak track record.

Who has this?

Core IT.

AI has at max what? Capability. Not craft. For craft, one needs to grind.

New kids will need to work as an ensemble within business infrastructures.

Not without.

Within.

Inclusion is in.

Exclusion is out.

Boo to exclusion.

Imagine a scenario…

…when Core IT comes out with something…

…much…

…much…

…cheaper.

Even in that scenario, it will choose to include. That’s why it’s made money for five decades back to back.

Remember that word.

Inclusion.

Staring Facts in the Face

Mongerers…

…are very, very busy.

After all, the target is in a corner.

Why not strike massively, and keep striking?

Punish the vanquished multiple times per misdemeanour.

Unfortunately, Core IT has gone quiet.

They’ve stopped caring about their share price.

Focus is now on intrinsic growth, not on quarter to quarter looking good attitude.

Pushed to the wall, the instinct to survive and regain lost ground is on all fours.

Forget about all this, is the aggressor AI actually so capable as to completely substitute the need for Core IT with regard to enterprise level programming, already?

No.

Perhaps in a year?

No.

5 years.

No.

10 years?

Possibly not.

20 years?

Possibly yes.

And, look at the mass reaction.

Masses believe they are ready to take over, like, yesterday.

Then comes the black box introduction.

AI companies are offering a black box to corporates, which will be their in-house AI, all data stays at home, let’s all bypass Core IT.

Does the data stay in the black box? Does it go anywhere? Does anybody know?

No.

Where is the trust coming from?

A bank entrusting its internal data to a black box, the big four doing the same, doctor’s records, hmmmm, not adding up. To a human under non-disclosure agreement? Plausible.

Departments being trained in corporates to become the tech arm?

It’s like an additional wing being added to a hospital, to handle book-keeping. Use the wing for expanding the hospital? What a preposterous idea! Let’s all become jack of all trades. Why even bother specializing. For that we have AI, right, to handle the specialist surgeries?

Panics almost always take to ridiculous trajectories.

This one has now cracked open genuinely clean-balance-sheeted free-cashflow-generating companies. Who have decided to take on all blows without responding. Probably want their CMPs to hit three digits and then some before announcing anything. They seem to have forgotten what buybacks are.

With nothing to go on, where do you stand, regarding Core IT?

Clean balance sheets.

Zero debt.

Track record of navigating through disruption.

Free cash flow being generated year upon year.

That’s enough.

Two choices.

Hold on to your holdings and look elsewhere currently, for investing.

Add on, as in average down.

Depends upon your risk profile, which option you choose.

Liquidation, for me, is not an option, given this :

Clean balance sheets.

Zero debt.

Track record of navigating through disruption.

Free cash flow being generated year upon year.

What am I doing?

Till lately I was averaging down.

Recently, I stopped averaging down in Core Tech. That’s a change in trajectory. Ya, have been investing elsewhere recently. Going to hold Core IT through, and accumulate further only above my buying averages for Core IT stocks. The exact change that’s happened is that now I need these stocks to speak out with their deeds and propel themselves to above my buying averages, before buying more. Might not happen soon. That’s fine. The reasons for comfort in holding are these :

Clean balance sheets.

Zero debt.

Track record of navigating through disruption.

Free cash flow being generated year upon year.

As long as these reasons exist, holding beyond while focusing elsewhere is the change that’s happened at Magic Bull.

Why, you ask? Why a change from the staunch attitude earlier?

It’s a matter of being in tune with one’s risk-profile. Till it wasn’t speaking up, I was comfortable averaging down. When it started to be bewildered by the goings on, I changed to being comfortable holding.

It’s ok. One can’t have the right opinion all the time. For a while, one can be wrong also. In those times that one feels one can be wrong also, making the switch from averaging down to only holding is ok, provided these exist :

Clean balance sheets.

Zero debt.

Track record of navigating through disruption.

Free cash flow being generated year upon year.

Only Misses for the DoomNixers

Stadiums full.

This is what we see at the FIFA World Cup.

Gloom and doom about no one travelling to watch…

…seems to be nixed.

Are any doomsdayers amounting to anything?

AI taking over and slaying all else?

It’s a collab. No one’s taking over anything completely.

US markets were supposed to crash…

…like yesterday. And with that, the world.

Whenever a full blown crash does happen, it will very probably be at a time when most shorters are exhausted, read in big losses and retired hurt, didn’t want to use the word bankrupt.

AI is supposed to lead the ‘bubble burst’.

Has AI just smelt some monetization in collab with the back-offices of the world?

Back-offices have the capability to hold the system up on the back of their picks and shovels work, which, obviously, DoomNixers ‘nix’ themselves upon. You see, it’s not glamorous enough. They didn’t see it at all thus, and stumbled and fell.

Here’s another one : No one can beat the effthurteefiive. True? Hmmm. We saw what we saw.

Attackers felt they would bring the opponent down over the weekend. Opponents, fighting for their lives, seem to have emerged better than their attackers.

When one fights for one’s life, one fights with every ounce of resource and every joule of energy.

The Dean at his Univ advised Max Planck to study Music instead of Physics, since he felt that every meaningful thing in Physics had been discovered already.

Max Planck went on to found a whole new branch of sciences. Quantum Physics. On which anything and everything today is based.

There’s this thing about optimists. They believe in their systems, their hard work. Their ability to fight for their lives. For their systems. For the passing on of their legacies.

Max Planck fought for the entire field of Physics, and what a legacy he’s passed on. Conventional Physics builds the framework, and Quantum allows us to traverse the Universe.

Core Tech is fighting for its life. Pushed to the wall, it will devise a way to emerge, as a monetizing handholder for AI to be implemented. It’s fought for its life many times before and has emerged victorious, and very lucratively.

There are two paths emerging here, in the example with Core Tech.

Path one – DoomNix. Pronounce it dead. Invest elsewhere, with expensive valuations.

Path two – research. Find companies that are transforming with the times, with clean balance sheets and free cashflows. Invest in these, as valuations are very reasonable currently.

One can even follow both paths MINUS the doomnixing. Meaning that one takes punts in expensive companies, no idea how that will pan out in the very long-term, and one also invests in very reasonably priced and transforming Core Tech, with clean balance sheets and free cashflows. This will give a decent return in the very long-term.

We leave the doomnixing to the pessimists, nay-sayers, lacking-in-hopers, non-believers in themselves and in good systems – this breed will keep collecting misses in life.

Having expunged the breed from our eco-systems, we stride ahead with our very long-term bullish view in our growth market, since the essence of sitting on a compounding portfolio for multiple decades is…

…an optimist mindset.

Life at Frontier Minus One

Sanity prevails…

…at frontier minus one.

Rat race is within the underlying’s…

control.

Virtual / quasi / substantial / semi debt-free-ness…

exists.

Free cash-flow generation on the balance sheet is…

…common.

At frontier minus one, the narrative is …

…under control…

…as proven by self-determination of speed of change…

…and by exhibition of substantial growth.

Not at breakneck speeds.

Not by borrowing to the hilt.

Not by greedy behaviour.

Not by indigestible trajectory.

Not by a reckless ‘not giving a damn too bad if you’re not so fast’ attitude.

Life at frontier minus one…

…is somewhat balanced, with a flow.

Innovation at frontier minus one is achieved much faster

…than at frontier minus two, but much slower than at…

…frontier zero zero.

No tech company that wishes to thrive well into the future is currently functioning at…

…frontier minus two.

Either the transition to minus one has been made, or, it’s in the process.

Why not go for the jugular? Straight to zero zero.

Everyone has their role in this puzzle.

Imagine an older civilization going into battle.

There was a front line, paving the way, at immense cost.

There was a reserve support line, with artillery, first-aid, communication, and what have you.

There was a third line with supply, reinforcements, semi-trainees doing other stuff normally, etc.

There was aerial support, naval support, intelligence, research and analysis staff etc.

All combined to create an ensemble of actions.

Cut to now.

Warfare has changed.

Immense cost is still there, but immense cost to the front line, as in cost of life, has been reduced greatly, speak drone and missile warfare, supported by AI backed intelligence and analysis.

Point is, innovation, a different way of thinking, disruption and all their cousins will find a way to make things affordable, implementable.

That’s the way civilizations move forward.

Not for you or me to change. It’s the way of the world.

And that is what frontier minus one banks upon.

Meaning, to keep functioning at sustainable levels, slowly, painstakingly, in the process, simultaneously, finding a way, a connect, to frontier zero zero.

The connect can be of co-work. Amicable. Win-Win. You earn, we earn.

At frontier minus one, the world view is not to annihilate, but to…

…accommodate.

To win…

…together…

…in…

symbiosis.

Symbiosis

Imagine…

…the most value you can imagine.

That’s what this word is worth.

Especially now.

What’s the truth?

Existential question.

First we had everyone and their aunties proclaim the death of core Tech companies.

Hmmm.

Core Tech companies, and their chief protagonists, thought otherwise.

Number of believers kept waning though.

Until recently.

Something started to reverse in belief systems.

AI was behaving fantastically utilitarian with a human holding the reins.

Meaning, there needed to be a human there, for practical purposes.

Frontier AI deployed engineers to be the human face. Or so one was told.

Came the trust issue.

Do we double up on our trust in this no track record magician who just showed up out of nowhere?

Do we entrust privileged client data to the unknown?

Do we strip ourselves naked, TWICE?

NO.

Everyone and their uncles have answered with an emphatic NO.

Who is the human handler – the go-between – the trusted face – the rein holder?

Someone with a track record.

Proven.

Tried, and…

trusted.

Self-propelling.

With no liabilities. Spell ZERO DEBT.

With copious FREE CASH FLOW to INNOVATE FREELY…

…to navigate the reins successfully and as per the requirements of an enterprise.

Who is this entity?

None other than…

…our own very well known…

CORE TECH.

Leaner.

Hungry to prove its point.

To have its raison d’être acknowledged, and paid for.

To earn and compound steadily.

Forget about dying. Let’s talk about long term thriving.

Then, we had the captains of frontier AI admitting, that yes, ‘we do need core tech handholding to be implemented successfully’.

Gone was the initial hubris, that ‘we had come to wipe out old thought patterns, and all old systems’.

Reality had dawned, and these captains at least had the decency to admit it.

Actually, they had realized that their existence now depended upon how much their infrastructure would seep through. And…

…that no one was trusting them enough to hand over the job of seeping through to them, but much rather, to trusted old compatriots, to Core Tech.

So they came forward to shake hands.

Good.

Symbiosis.

We want to move forward on the back of this symbiosis.

There will be gigantic and fast development on the back of this symbiosis.

We are looking at space travel, space colonization, disease control, climate change, cheap solar, cheap desalination, perhaps even alien integration and partnership – unimaginable perhaps a few months ago, but possibly conceivable on the back of this symbiosis.

There’s new talk which has recently emerged, from the other extreme, and needs to be discarded, like its mirror image on the opposite side of the bell curve. This is the talk of frontier AI dying out because of becoming unaffordable.

Well, in whatever shape it exists currently, frontier AI does have tremendous capacity to solve problems.

Let it do just that on the back of this symbiosis, and earnings will start to flow.

Core Tech won’t let it wither, frontier AI has now become their raison d’être too.

Don’t you see it?

Two universes are converging, each needing the other to survive.

In the end, they become one universe.

Companies will merge. Synergies will multiply. Mega projects will be achieved, faster, more bombastically.

Earnings will flow.

Where do you want to be?

Remaining a doomsdayer will not help you.

Get into the flow.

Invest into debt-free, free cash-flow generating core tech as value deepens.

Look for debt-free, frontier minus one, free cash-flow generating semi AI companies, research these thoroughly for any red flags, and if those found are manageable, put in some funds.

If you find a frontier tech with manageable debt and a reasonable balance sheet, with a PEG ratio (price to earnings ratio divided by earnings per share growth percentage for the fiscal) somewhat under control. ok, put in some money there too.

Get out of the doomsday mindset.

Put your money to work, and then lock it in for another twenty years. Leave the compounded proceeds to your children.

Now.

Let the crashes come. There will be compounding post crashes too. Just look at the monthly chart of an IT index from 1995 to today. Dot-com peak looks miniscule and low compared to the levels of the monthly chart today.

Enough talking. Do the recce and then let’s talk.

Mantra

Hey.

Writing became a breeze.

Posting a blog from inside Claude, keeping the originality of the post, whilst assigning to AI all mechanical tasks like feeding in categories and tags – I’ll admit, this does make life a lot easier, and blogging a lot more enjoyable.

Which keeps the admissions coming in continuation, perhaps repeatedly.

From being the leading AI skeptic, towards gravitating to some kind of a chief protagonist – people who know me would probably say, “There he goes again.”

So what’s this going to do?

The number of blog posts is going to increase. Hopefully, the quality too. Primarily, the enjoyment while blogging.

Beneficial. We thereby move towards the realm of Planet 2.0.

Wunderkind AI needs to benefit mankind to the max.

What about the risk?

Opening up to the Wunderkind, allowances, permissions, sometimes an odd password shared.

Does the AI take these towards Planet 3.0?

Yeah, that’s the one on which mankind is harmed.

Skeptics are still on 1.0, exactly where I was 11 days ago.

Idea is to make a conscious effort to gravitate towards 2.0, every time there’s a drift towards 3.0.

Remember, we will tend to drift.

Drifting got us here in the first place. One can use fancy words for it, like disruption.

There’s a quick trick which makes us aware from where we are functioning, 2.0 or 3.0?

Greed. Hubris. Exuberance. Ego burgeons. 3.0 functionality.

Feeling of benevolence while functioning, well-being and / or goodness emerging – 2.0 domain.

Natural human drift towards 3.0.

Bring back consciously towards 2.0.

That’s the Mantra, going forward.

MainStreaming

When the trickle…

…becomes a flow…

…becomes a water-fall, …

…you’ve just gone main-stream.

Life main-stream is not different as such, …

…except for more zeros behind a one.

One more thing is very prominent, though.

NOISE.

Yeah, noise just got that much louder.

Why?

Because…

…there’s your main-stream, …

…and ever other professional concept or suggestion, …

…is noise, …

…for you.

If that’s not your reality, you’re going to bungle up your main-stream.

At this stage, mistakes are costly.

Going back to a drawing-board is going to cost precious time.

By the time you’ve gotten to your main-stream, time is not a luxury.

Make your scaling up worth it by believing in your main-stream.

Keep fine-tuning it to make it work for you, to its logical conclusion.

That would be the legacy stage.

Once you’re passing on your legacy, all else becomes noise, since closing a positive loop with deep satisfaction is what we ultimately strive for.

SUVs

Daily dealings are in…

…simple units of victory (SUVs), …

…for me.

When the SUV dawns, it brings happiness.

Contentment.

Fulfilment of purpose.

Motivation.

Recognition from the Universe.

Driving force.

What exactly is one SUV?

What shape does it take?

How does it…

…dawn?

Let’s break it down.

First…

…there’s struggle.

When anyone, anytime, anywhere, let’s say, is facing struggle, …

… and there’s even a mini-breakthrough, …

… the onset of a new concept, …

… a new understanding of things, …

… the simplest unit of progress in one’s situation, …

… that’s the one, that’s the SUV, dawning.

The SUV brings with it the realization that one is enjoying the journey. For struggle to turn into joy, the presence of SUV after SUV is a huge catalyst.

Recognizing the SUV is a state of mind. One needs to have evolved enough to acknowledge subtle victories.

Changes in behaviour.

Efficiency at doing a task.

Development of a mini-model.

A new system.

Eco-system.

Now the equation flips over to excess, owing to overflowing SUVs.

Challenges change. Dealing with enhancing recognition, and its superior cousin, outright fame, is extremely difficult. First up, privacy is gone. Then, these states of being don’t offer guarantees for joy and contentment. List is long. Long list lost me at one and two. In my opinion, …

… getting SUVs together and enjoying the journey in the process…

…is a better life.

Normal

Hey…

… how’ve you been?

Just hit my normal, so, am feeling good about it.

LifeVector took a multi-SD shock some months back, and everything that makes my normal went out of whack.

Life today is about finding one’s normal amidst constant and new shocks.

Didn’t know I had it in me, to take a multi.

Found out while it happened and in the aftermath.

It’s good news for one’s environment, since everyone remains protected, if one is confident about navigating through multis.

So, what makes up my normal?

Firstly, I don’t fit.

So I construct my own fit.

Takes two and a half decades.

My fit has many-dimensional functionality, tailor made, to extract fullness from life.

In no defining order, there are some income-creating avenues.

Wealth-creating ones.

Recreation.

Giving.

Movement.

Study.

Wellness.

Spirit.

Family.

Exploration.

Responsibility.

Evolution.

Systems.

Auto-pilot.

Am not necessarily passing every avenue. There’s failure too.

I do know one big thing, though, from the recent shock.

It’s an invaluable lesson.

Don’t mind sharing it with you.

Am unhappy when away from my normal.

Further away, more the unhappiness.

Happiest when normal is hit.

Happiness-peak continues as normal remains intact.

Hmmmm.

Isn’t that a big learning?

Hope it helps you too!

🙂

News from the One-Off Corner

One-off runners emit a lure.

One don’t follow them.

However, one is dazzled by their move, and gets roped in.

What’s the out?

1). Emo-check.

2). Fundamental scrutiny.

Pass or fail.

If pass, go to 3). (if fail, move on in life).

3). Add to watch-list.

4). Watch.

Keep watching…

..till you can take a decision to make the one-off a static, or you just junk the idea of engaging with the one-off.

There’s that word again – static.

It’s possible that I’ll be laughed at for using this word in a market context.

I don’t mind being laughed at.

Others have been laughed at too.

Some of these are called pioneers today.

I’m not saying that I’m one.

However, I like to do things differently, exploring new avenues. It just sheer gives me a kick.

News from the one-off corner is their ability to showcase capability of movement.

You see, we’d like our statics to be able to move freely when the time comes.

When we see a one-off exhibiting free movement readily, we can explore whether this one can one day become part of our statics.

To build a house, one needs bricks.

As long as we desist from trading one-offs upon first movement and without proper fundamental and watch-list scrutiny, we should be safe.

When we convert the one-off into a static, news from the one-off corner translates for us into multiple wins over time.

Wishing you lucrative times in the markets!

🙂

From Cost-Free-Ness to a Unified, Singular, Comprehensive, 360° Market-Field-Strategy

So you’re cost-free in the markets…

…and are contemplating your further market-journey ahead.

Yeah, now what?

First-up, let’s grab a hold of what you have in your hands.

You are holding high-quality material which fits your risk- and long-term holding-profile, and, most importantly, this material has now been freed up of its investment-cost.

That’s (very) huge!

So, how does it go from here?

I’ve been here, and have always bungled it up.

This time, I won’t.

Why?

I’ve finally realized the supreme importance of being at this point, and, …

… I wish to keep coming back to this sweet-spot, …

… again, and again and again.

It’s a wonderful feeling.

One feels deep satisfaction, of achieving something big.

Yeah, at Magic Bull, we sheer achieve, write about it, and then achieve more.

We’ll just go on achieving.

We’re not stopping.

The writing part is only to keep a log and to help others on the path.

And of course, it clears one’s thoughts, making one arrive at gems of strategies…

…which all converge and unify into a singular market-approach.

Let’s talk about singular.

At this sweet-spot, the ghost of trading arrives.

One feels like riding the highs by video-gaming through the markets.

And, one falls flat.

It’s not familiar territory, because the approach till now has been one of investing, and investing and trading are diametrically opposite in nature. Meaning that it takes some time to rewire.

Before rewiring properly, …

… one’s already pressing buttons as if buttons are soon going to become extinct, since one is seeking thrills. It’s normal.

One’s achievement-vector points only towards falling flat, such is one’s behaviour.

How do we conquer this pitfall?

We’re going to exhaust this ghost’s potential to our benefit.

We are going to trade, …

… because otherwise, ghost’s not going away.

However, we are going to trade only those scrips that are already inhabiting our cost-free portfolio.

We trade these, as new units, in a different trading account.

Entry is worth one small quantum, whatever small entry-quantum one has defined for oneself.

The objective is to ride a quick run, and make, let’s say, 20% of the traded units cost-free.

That’s would be good, hard, tangible bang for our trading bucks.

Assuming we succeed, we then transfer the cost-free units to our long-term portfolio.

In the event we fail because markets start to reverse, it’s still ok.

It’s a holding we are comfortable holding, into the next market cycle, where we’ll again try and make it cost-free, and we’ll then have cost-averaging on our side, since we’ll have reversed to an investing approach.

It’s win-win everywhere.

Failure comes eventually, because markets ultimately reverse.

No one knows when.

Till them we keep trading and increasing our cost-free-ness.

When failure comes, it’s once, and eventually we hold and try to turn it around.

Because we’re holding quality, the probability of turning the situation around is high.

Before this one failure, we are poised for many possible trading wins, with each win adding to our cost-free-ness.

And there we have it…

…voilà…

… , yes, it’s a unified, singular, comprehensive, 360° Market-field-strategy…

…courtesy your friend and comrade-in-investing. …

… Magic Bull !

🙂

Nath on Equity – Some more DooDats 

Yawn, the story goes on… 

Let’s 21). not think about our folio at night. 

We’re also 22). only going to connect to the market on a need-to basis, no more. 

If there’s a 23). doubt, wait. 

24). Clarify doubt. If it goes away, proceed with market action. If not, discard action. 

Don’t spread 25). too wide. 75+ stocks means you’re running a mutual fund. 

Don’t spread 26). too thin either. Just 5 stocks in the folio means that risk is not adequately spread out. Choose your magic number, one that you’re comfortable with. 

Once this number is crossed, 27). start discarding the worst performer upon every new addition. 

28). Rarely look at folio performance. Only do so to fine-tune folio. 

Don’t give 29). tips. Don’t ask for them either. 

You are you. 30). Don’t compare your folio to another. 

Due diligence will require 31). brass tacks. Don’t be afraid to plunge into annual reports and balance sheets. 

32). Read between the lines. 

Look 33). how much the promoters personally earn annually from the underlying . Some promoters take home an unjustified number. That’s precisely the underlying to avoid. Avoid a greedy promoter as if you were avoiding disease. 

Is 34). zero-debt really zero-debt?  Look closely. 

Are the 35). promoters shareholder-friendly? Do they regularly create value for the shareholder? 

Are 36). strong reserves present? 

Are the 37). promoters capable of eating up these instead of using them to create value? 

Is the 38). underlying liquid enough to function on a daily basis? Look at the basic ratios. 

Is any 39). wheeling-dealing going on with exceptional items and what have you? 

40). Is the company likely to be around in ten years time? 

Yeah, things in the equity world need to be thorough. 

We’re getting there. 

🙂 

Nath on Equity – Yardsticks, Measures and Rules

Peeps, these are my rules, measures and yardsticks. 

They might or might not work for you. 

If they do, it makes me happy, and please do feel free to use them. 

Ok, here goes. 

I like to do my homework well. 1). DUE DILIGENCE. 

I like to write out my rationale for entry. 2). DIARY entry.

I do not enter if I don’t see 3). VALUE.

I like to see 4). MOAT also. 

I don’t commit in one shot. 5). Staggered entry.

I can afford to 6). average down, because my fundamentals are clear. 

My 7). defined entry quantum unit per shot is minuscule compared to networth. 

I only enter 8). one underlying on a day, max. If a second underlying awaits entry, it will not be entered into on the same day something else has been purchased. 

I’ve left 9). reentry options open to unlimited. 

I enter for 10). ten years plus. 

Funds committed are classified as 11). lockable for ten years plus. 

For reentry, 12). stock must give me a reason to rebuy. 

If the reason is good enough, I don’t mind 13). averaging up. 

Exits are 14). overshadowed by lack of repurchase. 

I love 15). honest managements. 

I detest 16). debt. 

I like 17). free cashflow. 

My margin of safety 18). allows me to sit. 

I pray for 19). patience for a pick to turn into a multibagger.

I keep my long-term portfolio 20). well cordoned off from bias, discussion, opinion, or review by any other person. 

There’s more, but it’ll come another day. 

🙂

Looking for a Deal-Breaker

I look. 

Don’t find it. 

Look again. 

And again. 

Keep looking. 

Tired. 

Eyes ache. 

Sleepy. 

Stop. 

Resume next morning. 

Still nothing. 

So on and so forth. 

Few days. 

Absolutely nothing. 

Buy the stock.

Yes. 

That’s the chronology. 

After zeroing in on a stock…

…that’s the chronology. 

Am I happy the search was unsuccessful?

You bet!

Am I spent?

Yawn…yes. 

Was it worth it?

Of course. I now own a quality stock. 

What’s happened before?

Stockscreener. 

Stock pops up. One that appeals to me. 

Check it for value. 

Pass.

Check it for moat.

Pass. 

Look for deal-breaker. 

Yeah, final step. 

Takes the longest. 

It’s boiled down to a yes or no. 

One’s going to holding the stock for a long, long time. 

This is when one is asking every cell in one’s body. 

Yes or no?

No deal-breaker?

Fine. 

Going for it. 

It’s a yes. 

Pioneering One o One

Sure, who am I to write about this?

Valid question.

However, I don’t really care.

I’ve got something to say.

And I’m saying it.

If you’re still wondering about the validity, well, I’m treading two paths where the textbooks say only so much. After the textbooks have signed off, I’m pretty much left groping in the dark. Whether or not I come up with something big, that time will tell. Meanwhile, here are some comments from along the path.

It’s lonely.

I walk alone.

I listen to no one.

That’s the price of it all.

That’s ok.

I don’t mind walking alone.

Challenge of the path keeps me awake, alert and alive.

There are chances I’ll die out in oblivion, without having found anything significant.

That’s also the big risk of pioneering.

Without taking this risk, I won’t be able to tread the path.

Yeah, it’s fine.

This is the extra mile.

It will cause one to stretch extra.

Some feel life’s boring without such a challenge.

At times one gets disheartened.

Strategies don’t pan out.

Systems fail.

Map isn’t being charted.

One is getting nowhere.

This happens many times.

At such times one wishes one were doing something else.

Yeah, only human.

Wanting to be super-human?

Why not?

Is it a crime?

At times one can forget one’s responsibilities.

Then it’s a crime.

Coming back to zero is required then.

Hubris.

Highly avoid.

Sure, you’ll eventually become great, a pioneer and all. Hubris will bring you down.

Remember Sir Isaac Newton investing twenty thousand pounds in a company at its peak, just before the company went bust…? He went around having a law passed that no one was allowed to utter the name of this company in his presence.

Grounded.

Stay grounded.

Works best.

That’ll keep you focused.

Go, Pioneer.

The CC

Done it again.

Introducing…

…the…

…Constitutional Comparative (CC). 

It’s in our constitutions…to compare. 

We exhibit the constitutional comparative by default…

…and we need to expunge this trait from our DNA…

…which takes time…

…but can be done, with determination and practice. 

Each one of us is unique, and we’ve come to do unique things. 

Some blossom early. 

Some blossom late. 

Some don’t blossom at all, or so it seems. Turns out later, their sole purpose in life was to provide stabilizing energy to their environment. They became activated from the womb, and they deactivated upon death. There was no question of blossoming at a certain time. You could also say, that they blossomed their whole life long. 

SEE?

Don’t compare. 

You can’t see the wheels within wheels just like that. 

Seeing wheels within wheels takes insight, penance and an appropriate state of mind. Therefore, if you really must compare, at least graduate to that state of mind first, where you possess the capability to see wheels within wheels in action. 

Or, if graduating to this state of mind is not worth your while, well, fine, no probs, but…

…DON’T COMPARE then…please. 

Live your life. 

Do what you’ve come to do. 

If you don’t know what you’ve come to do, well, FIND OUT. 

HOW?

Go within. 

Talk to yourself. Yeah, it’s not crazy to talk to yourself. 

In solitude come phenomenal solutions. 

You realise who you are…

…and what you’ve come to do. 

In a crowd, such finer points get lost, in the noise. 

And, why all this on a blog which has to do with finance?

Well, you can only invest properly if you’ve found yourself first. 

If you know who you are, you’ll also invest like who you are, as per your risk profile. 

A portfolio put together with the knowledge of your own risk profile will last you long, and will give you good returns for life. 

🙂

 

 

WoC

I think I found something. 

It’s very possible someone chanced upon my discovery before me. 

Doesn’t bother me. 

Reason?

I’m happy that I found something…myself. 

Struggle in finding…taught…me. 

I’m richer in implementational knowledge. 

Oh, I forgot to mention that I’m sharing the essence of my discovery…with you. 

Why?

I like to share. 

I won’t be spoon-feeding you…believe me. 

However, I won’t fall short of inserting the seed in your mind. 

Spare me the BS. 

I’ve heard it a million times before.

I have enough, and beyond that, I’m not commercially minded. 

In sharing are the riches. Hoarding leads to blockage…which leads to disease.

Sharing is flow. 

Flow leads to health…and happiness. 

Anyways, I’ve just established the WoC. 

Stands for Window of Confidence. 

You make it. 

How?

With your System. 

How?

Any which way you can mould your System to make it. 

Why do you make it?

It’s your basket…, your fishing net, actually. 

What do you catch in it?

That, which you wish to investigate further…for the purpose of investment. 

Whatever you delve into needs to meet certain standards, right?

There, you have it. 

Oh, one last thing…

…you ONLY look in your WoC…

…for that which needs to be investigated. 

You don’t look anywhere else.

Period. 

Happy Investing!

🙂